Pound/Baht

[chiang mai]

So GBP/THB just broke 55 (and USD 1.70), both significant milestones - where next?

If it helps the discussion at all, UK commentators are warning that such a strong Pound will negatively impact exports and there's plenty of talk about interest rate rises coming sooner rather than later.

BOT foreign currency reserves have reduced by around USD 2 billion in the last four weeks hence the assumption is that they are supporting THB? Having said that, BOT left the base rate unchanged at it's most recent meeting.

US Fed. is making no sounds at all about interest rate rises although the claim is that recovery is underway.

[i claudius]

I am sure it will either go up or down ,as a rule i am usually 50% right ,or wrong.

[theoldgit]

I have to say it was nice to receive my pension transfer this morning at a whisker over 55 Baht to the Pound, certainly better than those darker days a year or so back.

As for what the future holds, que sera sera.

[RAZZELL]

Yep, showing 55.25 on Superrich.

A nice change from the dark days of 43

RAZZ

[i claudius]

Yep, showing 55.25 on Superrich.

A nice change from the dark days of 43

RAZZ

but not as nice as when we came to live here 71 and 6% interest on your savings

[chiang mai]

It would be good to take a stab at possible future scenario's and the likelihood of them rather than reminisce about what happened ten years ago.

[Naam]

Yep, showing 55.25 on Superrich.

A nice change from the dark days of 43

RAZZ

i am missing comments from the eggsburts who forecasted GBP/USD 1.20 and EUR/USD 1.00 on Thaivisa causing a panic for scores of Brits and Continentals.

that was four years ago

[Gonsalviz]

Fed just announced the interest rate rise should be soon. Whatever that means. The economy is not in recovery as much as the American news people would have you believe.

[NeverSure]

Fed just announced the interest rate rise should be soon. Whatever that means. The economy is not in recovery as much as the American news people would have you believe.

The fed raises interest rates to cool an economy and attempt to ward off inflation. They don't raise interest rates if they think the economy is in trouble.

[RAZZELL]

It would be good to take a stab at possible future scenario's and the likelihood of them rather than reminisce about what happened ten years ago.

Ok boss

My prediction. It will rise to 60 at some point

RAZZ

[SheungWan]

44 to 55 is a whopping 25% markup. Worth a substantial FX conversion at 55 by Sterling holders.

[SheungWan]

Fed just announced the interest rate rise should be soon. Whatever that means. The economy is not in recovery as much as the American news people would have you believe.

No they didn't.

[Jip99]

Yep, showing 55.25 on Superrich.

A nice change from the dark days of 43

RAZZ

i am missing comments from the eggsburts who forecasted GBP/USD 1.20 and EUR/USD 1.00 on Thaivisa causing a panic for scores of Brits and Continentals.

that was four years ago

I think you will find that our esteemed OP was one of the merchants of doom

[geezer2]

I am sure it will either go up or down ,as a rule i am usually 50% right ,or wrong.

Love it SIR Claudius..

[chiang mai]

Yep, showing 55.25 on Superrich.

A nice change from the dark days of 43

RAZZ

i am missing comments from the eggsburts who forecasted GBP/USD 1.20 and EUR/USD 1.00 on Thaivisa causing a panic for scores of Brits and Continentals.

that was four years ago

I think you will find that our esteemed OP was one of the merchants of doom

It was only considered "gloom" by those people who didn't have the confidence to hold Baht, for those that were holding it it was quite the opposite!

[chiang mai]

Yep, showing 55.25 on Superrich.

A nice change from the dark days of 43

RAZZ

i am missing comments from the eggsburts who forecasted GBP/USD 1.20 and EUR/USD 1.00 on Thaivisa causing a panic for scores of Brits and Continentals.

that was four years ago

Yet another Pavlov dogs like response on this subject!

[Naam]

Yep, showing 55.25 on Superrich.

A nice change from the dark days of 43

RAZZ

i am missing comments from the eggsburts who forecasted GBP/USD 1.20 and EUR/USD 1.00 on Thaivisa causing a panic for scores of Brits and Continentals.

that was four years ago

I think you will find that our esteemed OP was one of the merchants of doom

not at that time. my reference was directed at an American TV-member who often mentioned his good connections with "Goldman's Suckers".

to the best of my knowledge the "esteemed OP" added to the GBP gloom and doom much later.

[chiang mai]

One last time, the OP asks, "where next", not what happened or who said what, many years ago, I mean, you could contribute by discussing the likely future direction of the US, UK or Chinese economies or even the direction of the EU if you must. Alternatively you could look at what's happening in Thailand and the likelihood of a rebound or failure therein. how difficult can that be to understand!

[chiang mai]

It would be good to take a stab at possible future scenario's and the likelihood of them rather than reminisce about what happened ten years ago.

Ok boss

My prediction. It will rise to 60 at some point

RAZZ

You may well be right and given the weakness of the US and European economies it appears as though the UK is the poster boy of good economies currently. But it's all relative, the UK only appears strong because the other economies are weaker, the question I keep asking myself is, what happens when the hot money reverses and flows back into Europe and the US, that could be ugly for GBP.

The other point that always occurs to me when I start to compare those economies is how nimble the Thai.economy can be versus the lumbering, slow and difficult to turn monoliths in the West. Many of the fundamentals remain in Thailand, all that's needed now is for confidence to return and given the job that's being done by the junta currently, that confidence may not be that far away.

[mccw]

""

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen signaled that rational exuberance is just fine.

That, at least, is how some of America's largest money managers interpreted her comments on Wednesday suggesting interest rates will remain low through 2016.

It reinforced their views that easy money means the U.S. stock market rally has further to run despite notching a series of record highs already this year. That could easily put the S&P 500 benchmark on track to surpass 2000 for the first time, and to do so well before the end of the year.

""

If BoE raises interest rates before US then logically leads to a stronger pound and even before just on the chat/ expectation.

So pound could go up a bit further against the bht. But around here in a range of a couple bht max i would say since there is Thai side support and greater investments now gov approving projects and getting economy rolling again.

If/ when next financial crises hits the west then a question will be bail in or bail out or a combination of both probably. However it goes down I think at least for a year or two after the event the £ etc will plummet against bht and other well backed currencies. 30% swing last time. So not a stretch to say- Next time could be same - - or worse , considering xyz

[chiang mai]

It's election time very soon in the US. UK and Thailand, a factor not to be overlooked, particularly in the UK.

Unemployed numbers are reducing (by good means or bad (zero hour contracts)), deficit and debt (national and personal) numbers are not and are now into serious numbers territory, all except Thailand's external debt that is - I'm not ramping at all, just observing.

Terrorism and political/civil unrest: Forex markets like stability, security and growth, I share the concern that the UK at least may suffer attacks from "within" resulting from various Middle East conflicts, obviously difficult to quantify and we hope it never happens but it must be an increasing risk in light of current events.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

44 to 55 is a whopping 25% markup. Worth a substantial FX conversion at 55 by Sterling holders.

or wait till it reaches 60!

Which it most certainly will now a Junta is in charge.

(Military coup, Migrant workers forced out, approaching sanctions from human trafficking, foreigner VISA restrictions)

The Baht if falling against all western currency.

(35 to the $$$ soon)

Edited June 21, 2014 by AnotherOneAmerican

[chiang mai]

If wait 'till 60, why not wait 'till 70, what's your basis for 60 and not 70, is something likely to happen?

[Naam]

One last time, the OP asks, "where next", not what happened or who said what, many years ago, I mean, you could contribute by discussing the likely future direction of the US, UK or Chinese economies or even the direction of the EU if you must. Alternatively you could look at what's happening in Thailand and the likelihood of a rebound or failure therein. how difficult can that be to understand!

how difficult is it to understand that i don't take lectures from poor little men?

[chiang mai]

One last time, the OP asks, "where next", not what happened or who said what, many years ago, I mean, you could contribute by discussing the likely future direction of the US, UK or Chinese economies or even the direction of the EU if you must. Alternatively you could look at what's happening in Thailand and the likelihood of a rebound or failure therein. how difficult can that be to understand!

how difficult is it to understand that i don't take lectures from poor little men?

We bow to a god, from which end we bow I'm unsure!

Can we please just move on, this "pauper" and others wish to engage in discussion that don't suit you, perhaps you could, er, gulp, go elsewhere!

[RAZZELL]

Simple.

UK has 6th largest GDP in the world.

UK has the rule of law thus investments are safe(ish). Including dodgy Chinese/Indian/Russian dosh.

$$$ capital flows will always find a safe haven when investors are $h1t-scared looking at events in the Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Eqypt, Iran etc etc etc

Interest rates will rise from unprecedented historically lows thus attracting more investment.

Election next year will see some more "giveaways" (economic/political bribery).

Looking at the graphs around 60 "seems to be" the rough average for the last 10 years or so.

Thailand is one small step away from civil war when the person who glues the country together pop his clogs.

Hence my prediction of 60 by the end of the year

RAZZ

Edited June 21, 2014 by RAZZELL

[chiang mai]

OK cool, but let's look at the elements involved:

UK GDP - is based on what, here's a clue, the value of real estate represents what percentage of?

Investments - rule of law etc, all true, BUT, have you asked yourself why people are investing in the UK, given that its GDP is based on property values to such a huge degree? Could it be that GBP and the UK is really that safe or is it just a temporary safe haven/bolt hole whilst uncertainty and turmoil exists in Europe, the US and elsewhere, dunno! And, what happens when that turmoil ends, where will those imported funds go, will they remain in a country that has no manufacturing to speak of and where the currency is so overvalued? The analogy here is with the Fed Q.E/ tapering program.

Interest rates - when they rise, what will happen to mortgage holders and what will happen to bank loan books as a result, remember, UK property prices never really corrected so what do we expect, that mortgage holders will borrow even more. Remember also that UK banks need a further ten years to rid themselves of their bad debt overhang, hmm!

Thailand - "one step away from civil war"! With all due respect, Thailand has never been on a better course in the past ten years, it's palatable and hugely exciting.

All those things having been said there is space between our views, great, at least you're looking forward rather than back and I'm happy to contribute to understanding and agreeing the differences.

.

[RAZZELL]

OK cool, but let's look at the elements involved:

UK GDP - is based on what, here's a clue, the value of real estate represents what percentage of?

Investments - rule of law etc, all true, BUT, have you asked yourself why people are investing in the UK, given that its GDP is based on property values to such a huge degree? Could it be that GBP and the UK is really that safe or is it just a temporary safe haven/bolt hole whilst uncertainty and turmoil exists in Europe, the US and elsewhere, dunno! And, what happens when that turmoil ends, where will those imported funds go, will they remain in a country that has no manufacturing to speak of and where the currency is so overvalued? The analogy here is with the Fed Q.E/ tapering program.

Interest rates - when they rise, what will happen to mortgage holders and what will happen to bank loan books as a result, remember, UK property prices never really corrected so what do we expect, that mortgage holders will borrow even more. Remember also that UK banks need a further ten years to rid themselves of their bad debt overhang, hmm!

Thailand - "one step away from civil war"! With all due respect, Thailand has never been on a better course in the past ten years, it's palatable and hugely exciting.

All those things having been said there is space between our views, great, at least you're looking forward rather than back and I'm happy to contribute to understanding and agreeing the differences.

I see "some" progress but as you are well aware - that doesn't answer my question.

When "you know who" goes - what happens then?

Thailand is still 50-100 years away from "Western Style Democracy™" - if ever.

I don't think the UK is doing too bad...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

RAZZ

[Jip99]

44 to 55 is a whopping 25% markup. Worth a substantial FX conversion at 55 by Sterling holders.

Yes, but to get 'back to 71'' would take another 29% hike from where we are now.

Just shows how great an impact the fall from 71 to 44 was!

[Jip99]

OK cool, but let's look at the elements involved:

UK GDP - is based on what, here's a clue, the value of real estate represents what percentage of?

Investments - rule of law etc, all true, BUT, have you asked yourself why people are investing in the UK, given that its GDP is based on property values to such a huge degree? Could it be that GBP and the UK is really that safe or is it just a temporary safe haven/bolt hole whilst uncertainty and turmoil exists in Europe, the US and elsewhere, dunno! And, what happens when that turmoil ends, where will those imported funds go, will they remain in a country that has no manufacturing to speak of and where the currency is so overvalued? The analogy here is with the Fed Q.E/ tapering program.

Interest rates - when they rise, what will happen to mortgage holders and what will happen to bank loan books as a result, remember, UK property prices never really corrected so what do we expect, that mortgage holders will borrow even more. Remember also that UK banks need a further ten years to rid themselves of their bad debt overhang, hmm!

Thailand - "one step away from civil war"! With all due respect, Thailand has never been on a better course in the past ten years, it's palatable and hugely exciting.

All those things having been said there is space between our views, great, at least you're looking forward rather than back and I'm happy to contribute to understanding and agreeing the differences.

.

Just so I can bring myself up to speed could you please post the evidence to support the comment ''remember, UK property prices never really corrected''.