Thai Economy won't be affected by US, EU actions: UBS

[webfact]

Economy won't be affected by US, EU actions: UBS
WICHIT CHAITRONG
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- THE DOWNGRADING of relations by the EU and US will not prevent the Thai economy from bouncing back in the near future, experts said yesterday. The current political milieu has started to turn positive for the Thai economy, said Edward Teather, senior economist at UBS Investment Bank.

"With the military government suggesting elections are over a year away, it is the general's economic policy that matters in the near term," he said via teleconference from Hong Kong.

Although the European Union and the United States have recently downgraded relations with Thailand, Teather does not see any an immediate adverse impact on the economy.

The EU has suspended official visits to and from Thailand and will not sign a partnership and cooperation agreement with Thailand until a democratically elected government is in place. The EU has also threatened to impose more measures against Thailand, while the US government stopped military aid to Thailand. In the immediate future the Thai economy will bounce back, driven by domestic demand, which is more important than other trends. The political difference would be a long-term issue for Thailand and trade partners.

"Our projection of a near-term growth bounce relies on improving confidence and pent up demand," he said.

The economy last quarter contracted by 2.1 per cent quarter on quarter. UBS predicts growth will resume in the second half of the year. Full-year economic growth is estimated at 1.2 per cent this year and 5.2 per cent next year.

Although Thailand's exports have been disappointing, lagging behind other countries in the region such as Malaysia where exports are picking up nicely, exports would revive in the second half of the year as the recovery in the US economy, one of Thailand's key export markets, gains ground.

Public spending will not play an important role, as new big ticket infrastructure spending may kick in only next year and the budgetary policy appears conservative, he added.

Somchai Pakapatwiwat, a political scientist, said the EU and US actions would not have a negative impact on the Thai economy, but the ruling National Council for Peace and Order should not make the international communities perceive that the military wants to be in power for too long. The reform process should take about eight months or a year and then a general election should be held to return the country to democracy, he said.

Amarin Khoman, an honorary consul at the Benin Consulate, blasted the EU and US, saying they should not take advantage of the situation, as Thais have already suffered from the prolonged political conflict.

"The EU and US should understand the Thai political situation and an election will be taking place when Thais are ready," he said.

The more important issue is how to improve the living standards of Thais.


-- The Nation 2014-06-26

[PaullyW]

More Thai exceptionalism I see.

My most sincere wish is that they fall flat on their faces and learn some humility.

Edited June 25, 2014 by PaullyW

[NeverSure]

"...exports would revive in the second half of the year as the recovery in the US economy, one of Thailand's key export markets, gains ground."

Out of the other side of the mouth...

"Thai Economy won't be affected by US, EU actions."

Thai man speak with forked tongue.

Edited June 25, 2014 by NeverSure

[NongKhaiKid]

Well of course there will be no adverse effect, this is Thailand after all.

[PaullyW]

Hub of no impacts from anything we don't like.

[stickyrice2000]

While Thailand is having problems with EU and US, I think it's a good time for its competitors like Vietnam and other countries to step up and take over the markets there.

[iphad]

While Thailand is having problems with EU and US, I think it's a good time for its competitors like Vietnam and other countries to step up and take over the markets there.

Good idea.... as there is a democratic government & no human trafficking problems in Vietnam.

But in reality...it comes down to as a buyer from the west..are you going to buy from a country that has a poor government or because you can get goods cheaper.

[love1012]

awwwww.....shame!!! Look lets be honest and get to the heart of the posts on here. `If you had to check the names of the red shirt posters from 6 month ago agains those defending the US now you would find great similarity now wouldn't you? Some of you red shirts who've LOST will grasp onto any straw! Even a US one to try and bring back your tin pot God - but heres the news - he's NOT coming back!!! NOT EVER!!! I think fair elections monitored throughout the country with people having central places to report the thefts and assaults and bribery that the PT aligned side did last time as far back to 2006 and soldiers arresting those not allowing democratic elections to take place would allow democrats and other parties to stand for ALL seats without threat, bribery or intimidation!! They would indeed produce a very different result!! But for now the Army is doing a FANTASTIC job!!

[stickyrice2000]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

While Thailand is having problems with EU and US, I think it's a good time for its competitors like Vietnam and other countries to step up and take over the markets there.

Good idea.... as there is a democratic government & no human trafficking problems in Vietnam.

But in reality...it comes down to as a buyer from the west..are you going to buy from a country that has a poor government or because you can get goods cheaper.

They will buy from a country that has less complications with the export products. Cheaper price is good, but not when the buyers have to go through all the hoops to get the products in the country.

[Lee4Life]

How is it that it will have no effect on the economy? If I earn 40,000$ per year, and have an uncle that gives me an additional 5,000$ per year, but he decides that he will no longer give it, can I really say that it will have no effect on my budget?

Even if I earn 60,000$ the next year because I get a better job, the 5,000$ per year that uncle would have given me would have made my total income 65,000$ per year, and so I couldn't say that uncle's decision "had no effect on my budget".

[love1012]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

While Thailand is having problems with EU and US, I think it's a good time for its competitors like Vietnam and other countries to step up and take over the markets there.

Good idea.... as there is a democratic government & no human trafficking problems in Vietnam.

But in reality...it comes down to as a buyer from the west..are you going to buy from a country that has a poor government or because you can get goods cheaper.

They will buy from a country that has less complications with the export products. Cheaper price is good, but not when the buyers have to go through all the hoops to get the products in the country.

hoops like unloading a boat - or loading up a shopping trolley - have you got sticky rice between your ears?

Edited June 26, 2014 by love1012

[Lee4Life]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

While Thailand is having problems with EU and US, I think it's a good time for its competitors like Vietnam and other countries to step up and take over the markets there.

Good idea.... as there is a democratic government & no human trafficking problems in Vietnam.

But in reality...it comes down to as a buyer from the west..are you going to buy from a country that has a poor government or because you can get goods cheaper.

They will buy from a country that has less complications with the export products. Cheaper price is good, but not when the buyers have to go through all the hoops to get the products in the country.

The ""actions" taken by the US and EU don't just include the trading of goods....they include the provision of aid, besides...what country in the world doesn't have some sort if import and duty requirements?

[The stuttering parrot]

The good feeling headlines are churning out day after day!

We've even got posters saying that 95% of the thai population are right behind the junta.

It's nice to be in a position where the rest of the world is wrong and your right.

The way Thailand is going according to the nation it will be world economic power within six months and the envy of all other world economies .

Pity they are so far off the mark!

[davehowden]

"Thai economy will bounce back, driven by domestic demand"

But:

"Thai households’ high debt loads will limit future consumer spending and economic growth."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/2/

as ever, talking out of their butts.

[Thailand]

I guess the general feeling is that the more " happy" reports regarding economy, tourism, feel good factors are thrown out more people are likely to believe them-positive vibes, irrespective of whether or not there is any truth in them.

[noitom]

Now the Thais are quoting diplomats from Benin, the former capital of the "slave coast" and known as the "black sparta" because of its culture of military authority and regional war. The former Kingdom of Dahomey, now known as Benin, was a forerunner and leader in selling and trading its captured slaves to Europeans. A military and slave culture with a literacy rate of 42%, one of the lowest in the world. So it is fitting that someone from Benin would be quoted as an "example" in a Thai editorial and Thais would emulate this nation.

[Sandman77]

The free trade agreement will not come until there is a new election eu announce !

So it will affect the Thai economy for sure!

I not belive UBS fake reports, only spread wrong information to maximizes there own profit!

[love1012]

More Thai exceptionalism I see.

My most sincere wish is that they fall flat on their faces and learn some humility.

.....in other words turn to the United States and the Shinawatras for help?.......no thanks we don't need it!!!

[love1012]

The free trade agreement will not come until there is a new election eu announce !

So it will affect the Thai economy for sure!

I not belive UBS fake reports, only spread wrong information to maximizes there own profit!

In 2013 thailand exporting 18 billion dollars to the EU. At the same time importing 16 billion dollars - EU will not damage Thailand despite Sinawatra efforts thailand is bigger than HIM!!. We will simply turn to other ASIAN trading partners !!

[iphad]

The good feeling headlines are churning out day after day!

We've even got posters saying that 95% of the thai population are right behind the junta.

It's nice to be in a position where the rest of the world is wrong and your right.

The way Thailand is going according to the nation it will be world economic power within six months and the envy of all other world economies .

Pity they are so far off the mark!

I'm not sure where the poster got the info that 95% of the Thai population are happy with the military coup but I could guess it's definitely the majority.

I don't believe that Thai think they are going to be an economic world power in 6 months

but compared to economic situation pre coup & after coup I would say it's definitely better.

Not that the rest of the world is doing great either economically.

The west cooks their books too to make things look good...that's what politicians are good for.

[love1012]

The good feeling headlines are churning out day after day!

We've even got posters saying that 95% of the thai population are right behind the junta.

It's nice to be in a position where the rest of the world is wrong and your right.

The way Thailand is going according to the nation it will be world economic power within six months and the envy of all other world economies .

Pity they are so far off the mark!

can you show evidence that large numbers of Thais are LESS happy than when Pheu Thai garbage was in power? The rest of the world?? China, Russia India don't seem to have a problem with Thailand - stop exaggerating in your Shinawatra propaganda in EVERY POST!! Give the Army Government credit for achieving what your PHEU THAI rubbish couldn't and wouldn't and just thank God your not a rice farmer or a dead protestor!! i would not give your garbage post credibility but this time you are SO FAR OFF THE MARK!!!

Edited June 26, 2014 by love1012

[love1012]

if we check the US supporters and Thailand knockers against the red shirt supporters of 4 months ago - do you think we might find anomalies? Yaaay keep supporting your football team with every turn of the road!!

[love1012]

How is it that it will have no effect on the economy? If I earn 40,000$ per year, and have an uncle that gives me an additional 5,000$ per year, but he decides that he will no longer give it, can I really say that it will have no effect on my budget?

Even if I earn 60,000$ the next year because I get a better job, the 5,000$ per year that uncle would have given me would have made my total income 65,000$ per year, and so I couldn't say that uncle's decision "had no effect on my budget".

How about if you earn 200,000 dollars a tar and you have an uncle who gives you 10 cents?? try looking up some GDP figures and compare them to the paltry sum given in military aid that the US is talking about - The US wants to make a gesture for elected Governments because it has to thats all!!

[baboon]

The good feeling headlines are churning out day after day!

We've even got posters saying that 95% of the thai population are right behind the junta.

It's nice to be in a position where the rest of the world is wrong and your right.

The way Thailand is going according to the nation it will be world economic power within six months and the envy of all other world economies .

Pity they are so far off the mark!

can you show evidence that large numbers of Thais are LESS happy than when Pheu Thai garbage was in power? The rest of the world?? China, Russia India don't seem to have a problem with Thailand - stop exaggerating in your Shinawatra propaganda in EVERY POST!! Give the Army Government credit for achieving what your PHEU THAI rubbish couldn't and wouldn't and just thank God your not a rice farmer or a dead protestor!! i would not give your garbage post credibility but this time you are SO FAR OFF THE MARK!!!

With the greatest of respect, philippics such as this are not advancing your cause.

[Nickymaster]

The good feeling headlines are churning out day after day!

We've even got posters saying that 95% of the thai population are right behind the junta.

It's nice to be in a position where the rest of the world is wrong and your right.

The way Thailand is going according to the nation it will be world economic power within six months and the envy of all other world economies .

Pity they are so far off the mark!

What a BS post again. Pure propaganda and exaggerations. You just can't accept that the Junta is managing this country much better then your beloved, corrupt Shins. Is your partner giving you that much pressure? Do you really believe in what you write?

It's nice to be in a position where the rest of the world is wrong and your right.

For what it is worth, what did China say?

Edited June 26, 2014 by Nickymaster

[Krataiboy]

The U.S. will huff and puff to bolster its tarnished image as a champion of "democracy", but with China's navy increasingly flexing its muscles, it needs to keep Thailand and its military onside at all costs. It was agent orange in Hua Hin during the Vietnam war. Next time around it could be nuclear-tipped missiles pointing at Beijing.

[Hawk]

The Thai economy has already been "infected" by the interference of the army, so here comes a major earthquake. Devaluation of the baht next? Well, if they make the rice cheap enough then surely somebody may buy it?

[Lee4Life]

How is it that it will have no effect on the economy? If I earn 40,000$ per year, and have an uncle that gives me an additional 5,000$ per year, but he decides that he will no longer give it, can I really say that it will have no effect on my budget?

Even if I earn 60,000$ the next year because I get a better job, the 5,000$ per year that uncle would have given me would have made my total income 65,000$ per year, and so I couldn't say that uncle's decision "had no effect on my budget".

How about if you earn 200,000 dollars a tar and you have an uncle who gives you 10 cents?? try looking up some GDP figures and compare them to the paltry sum given in military aid that the US is talking about - The US wants to make a gesture for elected Governments because it has to thats all!!

I thought the sanctions were by the EU also? Not just the US?

[pistachios]

exports would revive in the second half of the year as the recovery in the US economy, one of Thailand's key export markets, gains ground.

Woops

http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2014/06/25/u-s-gdp-dropped-2-9-in-the-first-quarter-2014-sharply-lower-from-second-estimate/

[Morch]

The U.S. will huff and puff to bolster its tarnished image as a champion of "democracy", but with China's navy increasingly flexing its muscles, it needs to keep Thailand and its military onside at all costs. It was agent orange in Hua Hin during the Vietnam war. Next time around it could be nuclear-tipped missiles pointing at Beijing.

The Gulf of Thailand is a little away from where the action is.

Thailand certainly carries some military importance for the USA, even inasmuch as it doesn't "go over" to the PRC.

But it is not indispensable. Also, Thailand ain't going nowhere that quick.