Aus dollar weakening against Thai baht?

[y2k]

In another thread the Pound is reported as being strong at 55baht. Just over a week ago the Australian Dollar was worth 30.44baht but it has now dropped to 29.89. What is causing this and what are the short term predictions?

[AfterLOS]

Sheesh, some people are never satisfied. Would you rather go back to 21.28 (Oct 2008) or 27.87 (Aug 2013)? You have bigger problems to focus on than this iddy bitty problem - why hasn't this supposedly great NEW ERA Australia not been able to recover from the crash of 2007, nowhere near the recovery of the US which exceeded the top, heck but not even as much as Thailand (near 100% recovery of the 1994-98 crash)

Don't know if you were around prior 2008 when the Aussies in sooooo many expat areas of the world were lafffing at the Americans because the Aussie dollar was brutalizing the American $?

Its our turn to lafff heartily, NOW.

I consoled the Americans back then with this, "we will have our vengeance, nobody can keep a true champion down for long, when he rises, they will beg forgiveness"

[AfterLOS]

You might also not want to compare the Aussie dollar with the Pound - the latter currently flogging the former like Mike Tyson in his prime. Same thing the Aussies were saying, albeit not as much about how they were raping the Pound since 2001.

Well, kiss that notion goodbye. The Pound is no slouch, you can't keep it down for long.

Pound has reversed the TREND since 2001 and is now got the Aussie$ in a choke hold that appears to be in its infancy.

[Pralaad]

the whole 50 satang? its crashing

[eeeya]

open a forex account and bet the house on it..

let us know how you went

[MrWorldwide]

OP, look at the 5 year chart and ask yourself two simple questions:

- can I afford to ride out another slump like 2010 - or worse, 2008 ?

- what would be the impact of the dollar dropping back to the ~28 baht level it has been at for a large chunk of those 5 years ?

We can dream of a return to 32+ baht but I suspect that's all it will be for quite some time.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=5Y

It's natural to focus on peaks and troughs but in reality unless you are making a major single investment - condo/car/pig farm - I wouldnt lie awake at night worrying about it, I recently transferred 5K AUD from my FCD account into my THB account and I always keep sufficient cash on hand for emergencies - even if the dollar plummeted back to 23 baht I wouldn't have to leave Thailand anytime soon. All of the currencies discussed in this thread have endured peaks and troughs against the baht over the last 5 years - I dont have a crystal ball, but it was clear that the mining boom was the only thing propping up an artificially high Pacific Peso while the Americans were trying to print their way out of a depression, and that ride had to end. Many of the Brits here are very sensitive to short-term changes in the exchange rate as they're on fixed monthly incomes - if you can afford to ride out the troughs I believe you'll be OK, If not, act accordingly - if the news item on the SET is accurate, I fully expect that Aussie to take a further hit early next week, but as I said I've cushioned myself against a short-term dip. if you find the prospect of 26-27 baht truly alarming, it may be time to revisit your budget or re-evaluate your future plans - if the graphs give you no comfort, so be it, but I'll take those over tea leaves and the prognostications of TV board members any day of the week.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=5Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=5Y

Compare those charts with the quiet achiever, the Kiwi:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=THB&view=5Y

Ask yourself how many New Zealanders would be kicking themselves if they'd converted their retirement nestegg to baht prior to late 2013. Panic, IMO, isnt an option - if a country whose major exports are people and cheese can take on the almighty baht, there's hope for the peso yet.

Edited July 12, 2014 by MrWorldwide

[y2k]

I have noticed Kasikorn bank's rate to be lower than the market.

If I also hold GBP would I be better advised to use that over the AUD to buy THB?

[ezzra]

Sheesh, some people are never satisfied. Would you rather go back to 21.28 (Oct 2008) or 27.87 (Aug 2013)? You have bigger problems to focus on than this iddy bitty problem - why hasn't this supposedly great NEW ERA Australia not been able to recover from the crash of 2007, nowhere near the recovery of the US which exceeded the top, heck but not even as much as Thailand (near 100% recovery of the 1994-98 crash)

Don't know if you were around prior 2008 when the Aussies in sooooo many expat areas of the world were lafffing at the Americans because the Aussie dollar was brutalizing the American $?

Its our turn to lafff heartily, NOW.

I consoled the Americans back then with this, "we will have our vengeance, nobody can keep a true champion down for long, when he rises, they will beg forgiveness"

You post made me lafff so hard....

[MrWorldwide]

I have noticed Kasikorn bank's rate to be lower than the market.

If I also hold GBP would I be better advised to use that over the AUD to buy THB?

Normally I'd say yes, but it comes down to whether or not you think those pounds may be worth more in a week or two and whether you can afford to wait until then. If not, do it. For the OP, most Thai banks are still up around the 30 baht mark for ATM withdrawals as I type this - will be interesting to see how that SET prediction pans out.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/

[y2k]

I have noticed Kasikorn bank's rate to be lower than the market.

If I also hold GBP would I be better advised to use that over the AUD to buy THB?

Normally I'd say yes, but it comes down to whether or not you think those pounds may be worth more in a week or two and whether you can afford to wait until then. If not, do it. For the OP, most Thai banks are still up around the 30 baht mark for ATM withdrawals as I type this - will be interesting to see how that SET prediction pans out.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/

Thing is, both GBP and AUD are down by 0.5 baht since earlier this month so I think it makes little difference which one I use.

I noticed that Kasikorn's rates page is only updated 4 times a day. The 2nd was just an hour ago at midday.

[AfterLOS]

I have noticed Kasikorn bank's rate to be lower than the market.

If I also hold GBP would I be better advised to use that over the AUD to buy THB?

Normally I'd say yes, but it comes down to whether or not you think those pounds may be worth more in a week or two and whether you can afford to wait until then. If not, do it. For the OP, most Thai banks are still up around the 30 baht mark for ATM withdrawals as I type this - will be interesting to see how that SET prediction pans out.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/

Thing is, both GBP and AUD are down by 0.5 baht since earlier this month so I think it makes little difference which one I use.

I noticed that Kasikorn's rates page is only updated 4 times a day. The 2nd was just an hour ago at midday.

You could hit F5 and update every nanosecond but don't hold down Alt+Shift or else Australia becomes a US state.

[AfterLOS]

I have noticed Kasikorn bank's rate to be lower than the market.

If I also hold GBP would I be better advised to use that over the AUD to buy THB?

Normally I'd say yes, but it comes down to whether or not you think those pounds may be worth more in a week or two and whether you can afford to wait until then. If not, do it. For the OP, most Thai banks are still up around the 30 baht mark for ATM withdrawals as I type this - will be interesting to see how that SET prediction pans out.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/

Thing is, both GBP and AUD are down by 0.5 baht since earlier this month so I think it makes little difference which one I use.

I noticed that Kasikorn's rates page is only updated 4 times a day. The 2nd was just an hour ago at midday.

Zoom out to a larger timeframe like weekly or monthly to get some perspective. You're too close to the action, it will drive you batty. This article tells you exactly why Aussie $ is in for a rough spell - from 2013 but still applies tody and even more so as China's bubble bursts

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-australian-dollar-is-getting-crushed-2013-6