Central bank still confident of strong economy



BANGKOK: -- The central bank is confident that Thai economy will not dip to recession this year though first and second quarter showed contractions.

Bank of Thailand’s director of macroeconomic policy office Mr Don Nakornthap voiced confidence of the Thai economy that it will not get into recession this year while giving a press conference on the economic situation.

He said although the economy contracted by 0.4% in the second quarter, it was an improvement from the first quarter when it shrank by 0.6%.

This was a sign that the economy is improving, he said and expected the Thai economy to expand by 1.5% this year as earlier projected by the central bank, although it remains uncertain if exports could achieve the annual growth target of 3% set by bank.

Meanwhile Thai National Shippers’ Council has also revised its projection for export growth this year to 1-1.6% from 3%.

Council president Nopporn Thepsittha attributed the revised projection to exports to key markets like the U.S. and Europe remaining low while the situation is unlikely to improve due to the strengthening baht.

At the same time the Economic and Business Forecasting Center of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce also cut its projection for Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 2.2% from 2.5%.

But UTCC projects the Thai economy to grow at 5 percent next year and export to expand at 5-7%, thanks to recovery in the global economy, opening of five special economic zones which are expected to boost border trade, and investment in railway mega-projects.

MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, advisor to the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) said Thailand economy is likely to improve in the second half of this year and it could expand by 2-3% this year.

The former BoT governor and finance minister said the Thai economy in the second half of this year will be driven by private investment and investment on infrastructure.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/central-bank-still-confident-strong-economy/

[thaipbs]2014-08-01[/thaipbs]

Nothing to see here, move along please!

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Government/central bank announcements are almost always positive...or if they are somewhat negative plenty of silver-lining statements will be included (kinda like real estate articles) to say things will be much better next year.   And then what happens all too often when next year arrives then the "revised" announcements lower the growth projections with more silver-lining statements about the later half of the year things will be looking up.  Take all these announcements with a big grain of salt as all the announcements are best-guesses and all to often politically motivated.  But hopefully the Thai economy will improve with more political stability and fewer costly vote-buying populist schemes.

"The central bank is confident that Thai economy will not dip to recession this year though first and second quarter showed contractions."

 

Often a statement like this means that the one making it is doubting it will be true.

Things will better next year recession what recession.

By definition, 2 consecutive negative quarters IS a recession, so this is an interesting piece of spin

By definition, 2 consecutive negative quarters IS a recession, so this is an interesting piece of spin

 

I thought that but when I saw the mention of 'this year' I was wondering if it was 3 quarters and they were cleverly leaving out the last qurter of last year. There are many definitions of recession so I expect the've thought up their own. Or perhaps nicked someone elses that suited them better.

Just a minute let me get my calculator and do the maths.  Now how many quarters are there in a Bank of Thailand year?

When there are contradictions in such an announcement - its code.

 

And the contradictions, to the main body of the announcement, is the real news.

 

And the real news is bad...