I Am Not Evil

[John K]

Kantathi: PM's note to Bush didn't mention 'charismatic figure'

Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon was tight-lipped yesterday over whether the entire contents of a controversial letter from caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to US President George W Bush would be revealed.

But Kantathi insisted the note did not contain any reference to the "charismatic person" the premier has claimed is trying to overthrow the government using unconstitutional means.

Speaking to reporters yesterday, Kantathi said the "personal letter", dated June 23, 2006, was signed by Thaksin and sent to Bush via the Foreign Ministry.

He said it contained no reference to the much-reported on "charismatic person" and added the United States was the only country to receive such a letter.

"The letter was a clarification on the possible confusion surrounding Thai politics. The letter explained that despite Thailand's internal political problems, the country would continue to move forward and would solve the problems in line with the Constitution," he said.

"We won't make any major decision as we are a caretaker government, and we'll take care of the relationship between Thailand and the US," Kantathi said.

He said a press conference would be held by either the government or the Foreign Ministry spokesman in the coming days to clarify any lingering questions about the letter.

Kantathi is in Washington on a trip to meet with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other senior US officials.

Outgoing Nakhon Ratchasima Senator Kraisak Choonhavan yesterday reiterated his demand that the prime minister "come clean" about the content of his letter to Bush.

Kraisak told reporters last week that the letter contained allegations that were similar to those made by Thaksin to top bureaucrats on June 29 when he claimed a "charismatic figure with power beyond the Constitution" was trying to overthrow him.

Kraisak is chairman of the Senate foreign affairs committee.

"A prime minister of Thailand can send letters to anybody abroad to improve relations or clear up misunderstandings.

"But, what the prime minister did must be made public and it must be revealed if the letter referred to the 'charismatic figure'," he said.

"Were Thaksin's actions to protect himself in the eyes of foreigners? Did he have other reasons? Did he accept society's questions? Or did he want to blame others and say he was innocent?" Kraisak said.

Surapong Jayanama, a former director-general of the Foreign Ministry's Information Department, said no Thai prime minister had ever sent a "personal letter" to another leader explaining a domestic political situation.

He questioned why Thaksin would explain domestic matters to a foreign leader and not the public.

Surapong alleged Thaksin tried to portray himself as the sole symbol of democracy in Thailand, in the same manner as North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and China's Mao Zedong portrayed their roles in their countries.

"These are dictators who like to use beautiful words to appeal to the public and who always claim to have the support of their people. Thaksin is like that."

Former Constitution drafter Kanin Boonsuwan called on Thaksin to reveal the contents of his letter.

He said the Constitution demanded it. Section 58 guaranteed the right to information held by state agencies.

Chat Thai Party deputy leader Weerasak Kowsurat said he learned about the letter before Kraisak's revelation.

He said Thaksin should reveal its contents because this was an issue of public trust and Thaksin's honesty and sincerity.

Kraisak claimed on Friday that Thaksin sent a "secret letter" to Bush complaining about an alleged attempt to derail democracy in Thailand.

Thaksin made similar comments to senior government officials on June 29.

Kraisak learned of the letter from sources at the Foreign Ministry and Government House. He made the letter public at the "Muang Thai Rai Sapda" ("Thailand Weekly") meeting at Lumpini Park.

Sopaporn Kurz

The Nation

Washington, DC

[John K]

Well here are a few new things to look at. Some new names are mentioned;

Quote from the Nation:

Surapong alleged Thaksin tried to portray himself as the sole symbol of democracy in Thailand, in the same manner as North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and China's Mao Zedong portrayed their roles in their countries.

"These are dictators who like to use beautiful words to appeal to the public and who always claim to have the support of their people. Thaksin is like that."

I suspect Thaksin may think nobody in Thailand believes him anymore and he needs new ears to deceive.

Well at any rate I sent an email to the Nation suggesting that they look at the Freedom of information act in the USA to get a copy of the letter. Thanks for the thought penzman.

[Martin]

Isn't there a thing called "The Thirty-Year Rule" that covers the time when Foreign Ministry to Foreign Ministry communications are published?

This (inferring that Thaksin may have signed a letter that had been drafted at the Foreign Ministry a bit unthinkingly, and so it can be made to look as if Thaksin is too pally with Bush) is, of couse, part of the flurry of little jabs from all directions that may wear him down in the end.

Suppose it does? Who then?

Suppose it doesn't? He will look like Superman to voters in the provinces, and to the poor in Bangkok. And, such is the disjoint in Thai society, that he who has shown that he can withstand all that the elites and middle-class of Bangkok can throw at him will be seen as heroic by those groups.

(It is the phenomena of "If he is getting up THEIR noses, he must be doing something right".)

The Bangkok power groups may yet regret that PAD formed, took on Thaksin, failed, and left him stronger than ever.

This is, maybe, serious dithering at the crossroads, this time!!

[ando]

Well at any rate I sent an email to the Nation suggesting that they look at the Freedom of information act in the USA to get a copy of the letter. Thanks for the thought penzman.

John, do you think it is wise for an expat living in Thailand to make it known on the internet that he is activly giving advice to the opposition (media) with the intent of bringing down the government?

Us debating things here in our own secure little internet world is one thing, but venturing out there into the real Thai world of politics is full of danger for an expat. Admins paranoia about subjects that can be posted here is not totally unfounded since the authorities sometimes monitor these types of boards.

I hope John Krukowski is not your real name.

[ando]

Isn't there a thing called "The Thirty-Year Rule" that covers the time when Foreign Ministry to Foreign Ministry communications are published?

This (inferring that Thaksin may have signed a letter that had been drafted at the Foreign Ministry a bit unthinkingly, and so it can be made to look as if Thaksin is too pally with Bush) is, of course, part of the flurry of little jabs from all directions that may wear him down in the end.

Suppose it does? Who then?

Suppose it doesn't? He will look like Superman to voters in the provinces, and to the poor in Bangkok. And, such is the disjoint in Thai society, that he who has shown that he can withstand all that the elites and middle-class of Bangkok can throw at him will be seen as heroic by those groups.

(It is the phenomena of "If he is getting up THEIR noses, he must be doing something right".)

The Bangkok power groups may yet regret that PAD formed, took on Thaksin, failed, and left him stronger than ever.

This is, maybe, serious dithering at the crossroads, this time!!

Yes Martin, if Thaksin survives this assault it may be seen as "dithering at the crossroads", but no matter which way it goes the rules will have been tightened a little making it that much harder for the next dominant politician to exploit things. Its a democracy in evolution. In fact all democracies are in constant evolution trying to keep ahead of the crooks. I just wish that the academics and intellectuals in Bangkok could grasp the broader principles of democracy and apply it to all people in Thailand. Unfortunately I think many of the current vocal elite are simply trying to perpetuate the old established (and undemocratic) class system.

[John K]

Well at any rate I sent an email to the Nation suggesting that they look at the Freedom of information act in the USA to get a copy of the letter. Thanks for the thought penzman.

John, do you think it is wise for an expat living in Thailand to make it known on the internet that he is activly giving advice to the opposition (media) with the intent of bringing down the government?

Us debating things here in our own secure little internet world is one thing, but venturing out there into the real Thai world of politics is full of danger for an expat. Admins paranoia about subjects that can be posted here is not totally unfounded since the authorities sometimes monitor these types of boards.

I hope John Krukowski is not your real name.

Well it was only a suggestion and not a request and I would suspect they were already on the case. Plus as Thaksin always tells the truth there should be no worry. I fail to see how requesting a public document will bring down any government. A secret document is entirely another story and they are not available. I don’t see the Nation as opposition. I see them as less effected by Thaksin than other publications. Certainly the editorials are one person's opinion but the news content seems to be accurate.

[lukamar]

Us debating things here in our own secure little internet world is one thing, but venturing out there into the real Thai world of politics is full of danger for an expat. Admins paranoia about subjects that can be posted here is not totally unfounded since the authorities sometimes monitor these types of boards.

I hope John Krukowski is not your real name.

Well it was only a suggestion and not a request and I would suspect they were already on the case.

I have to agree with Ando on this John. Our AOFT site, and probably this one as well, is regularly monitored by the Thai government. A foreigner talking on a forum is one thing but that same foreigner actively involving himself, not just you, in Thai politics especially now could bring some retribution if seen as meddling. It's not like we, I'll include myself, unlike some others here, are not hard to find as we have relevant information posted on our websites and elsewhere. In your case a quick heated call to the College, or the body that licenses your profession, by some government bureaucrat could lead to a licensing review or worse a revocation, something no one would like to see.

[John K]

At any rate I am not concerned. It becomes very difficult to connect the dots. Plus technically the document is now a US document and not a Thai document.

As an American citizen I am entitled to know about any problems that arise in Thailand that the government feels may affect my safety. I get emails from the Embassy when they have a concern. The last one was a warning to avoid the PAD rallies back in February and March. Meaning if it was significant there probably would already be an email sent.

I suspect it is just a wild goose chase anyway to divert attention. Thaksin surly knows how transparent the US government is. He would be very foolish to send such a letter with names there.

[chownah]

The Freedom of Information Act has 9 exemptions and 3 exclusions. They are complex and not a fun read....but...does anyone really think that the FOIA would force the gov't to divulge the contents of diplomatic correspondence? It is laughable to think that it would...in my (hahahaha) opinion....does anyone think that the Thai gov't is going to adopt a law that forces the PM to divulge the contents of diplomatic correspondence?...or is it just idle speculation to consider that possibility?

[lukamar]

As an American citizen I am entitled to know about any problems that arise in Thailand

John, I think you missed my point. As an American citizen you must have a work permit/visa and you must be licensed by the Thai authorities to practice medicine in Thailand. The point I was making was you are at the mercy of the Thai authorities if they feel your actions threaten them.

Now.... I you do not have a work permit and relevant medical licensing that's a different story.

[John K]

As an American citizen I am entitled to know about any problems that arise in Thailand

John, I think you missed my point. As an American citizen you must have a work permit/visa and you must be licensed by the Thai authorities to practice medicine in Thailand. The point I was making was you are at the mercy of the Thai authorities if they feel your actions threaten them.

Now.... I you do not have a work permit and relevant medical licensing that's a different story.

I understand what you were saying, and that would be about what I said in post # 117 about the boss coming down with both feet. I truly appreciate your concern and point taken.

Just a note, only Thais can practice medicine in Thailand. They will not issue work permits to practice medicine. It is one of the few restricted occupations in Thailand. That is one of the reasons only two letters follow my name and my work permit is titled differently.

[penzman]

Us debating things here in our own secure little internet world is one thing, but venturing out there into the real Thai world of politics is full of danger for an expat. Admins paranoia about subjects that can be posted here is not totally unfounded since the authorities sometimes monitor these types of boards.

I hope John Krukowski is not your real name.

Well it was only a suggestion and not a request and I would suspect they were already on the case.

I have to agree with Ando on this John. Our AOFT site, and probably this one as well, is regularly monitored by the Thai government. A foreigner talking on a forum is one thing but that same foreigner actively involving himself, not just you, in Thai politics especially now could bring some retribution if seen as meddling. It's not like we, I'll include myself, unlike some others here, are not hard to find as we have relevant information posted on our websites and elsewhere. In your case a quick heated call to the College, or the body that licenses your profession, by some government bureaucrat could lead to a licensing review or worse a revocation, something no one would like to see.

The Freedom of Information Act has 9 exemptions and 3 exclusions. They are complex and not a fun read....but...does anyone really think that the FOIA would force the gov't to divulge the contents of diplomatic correspondence? It is laughable to think that it would...in my (hahahaha) opinion....does anyone think that the Thai gov't is going to adopt a law that forces the PM to divulge the contents of diplomatic correspondence?...or is it just idle speculation to consider that possibility?

Could happen, if diplomatic correspondence is used for personal gain in let's say, FTA accords and distorting facts about political crisis. Transparency is such a hip word with him these days, why be afraid to go all the way?

[Martin]

These boards being read by people with 'political' power interests is mild compared to what happens in the USA and now in Britain, according to 'Guardian Unlimited' yesterday.

It had a big story on how 'bloggers' with a particular political axe to grind are actively using such boards, and could be going to get the scalp of Britain's present Deputy Prime Minister.

" How the net closed on Prescott

The deputy PM's latest tangle is the first big British political story to be driven by bloggers, reports Patrick Barkham, while, Guido Fawkes defends their role

Monday July 10, 2006

The Guardian ".

That said, I do think that there is a line that shouldn't be crossed between taking an intelligent interest in the political scene in a foreigner's host country, and doing anything to affect what one sees.

A guest who tries to understand the 'culture gap' between himself and her/his hosting family stands to become a better guest, to the advantage of the host; provided s/he keeps well clear of getting involved in any differences of opinion between members of the hosting family!

[ando]

Listening to all the posters here, some of whom have lived in Thailand for years I have to wonder just how many actulally understand degree of racism directed towards the people of Issarn by the mainstream Thais. Issarn people are the countries poor. They are looked down on by the city Thais.

You may hear Thais talk about "Lao-Thais". It is a derogatory term used in the same way the word "nigger" might be used in the west. It basicly means--- uneducated and deserving of little respect.

Lao-Thai referrs to the people of Issarn who were originally under the rule of the Lao kingdom untill somewhere around the turn of the last centuary when the French and the British did some kind of a deal to carve up the two kingdoms and set new borders. The Lao teritory west of the Mekong was given to the Thais complete with Lao residents. This was a big chunk of land and quite a lot of people. The area is now known as Issarn. But although the people in Issarn now proudly identify themselves as 100%Thai, they are not fully accepted by more southern Thais.

Besides geographical isolation and relative poverty, there are some more tangable charecteristics that identify the so called Lao-Thais. The people of Issarn retain a language dialect closely related to the Lao language. So simply by the way they talk immediatly identifies them as being from an inferior social class. Issarn people generally look a little different too, but the physcial differences are so little that they are not realy conclusive unless associated with other charecteristics. The biggest and most obvious physcial difference, particularly between the Lao-Thais and the Chinese ruleing class is skin colour. Lao-Thais have darker skin while the ruling class Chinese-Thais have much fairer skin.

Skin colour is very much a social class identifier in Thailand. I am sure many of the readers here have looked in wonder when having taken a "girlfriend" to the beach only to find she covers up from neck to toe and avoids the sun at all cost. The reason for this is that darker skin represents a lower social class and a sun tan is the last thing the girl wants. Look around at the people doing all the menial low paid work. The guys cleaning out the sewers in Bangkok, the prostitutes in the bars of Pattaya, the housemaids in your hotel. You can be sure that 90% will be dark skinned people of Lao decent. Now stand on the corner and look at the people driving past in their Mercedes or BMWs,-- you can be 90% sure that they wil be fair skinned Chinese Thais.

I am sure most of the more vocal posters here will be aware of this class distinction, but I felt I needed to bring attention to the fact that Thailand is not necessarily a level playing field for all its citizens. The fact that Thaksin has managed to capture the Issarn vote should indicate that his policies lean towards a more equitable society.

I dont necessarily support Thaksin himself, but I do support a more equitable society in Thailand.

My hope is that other parties will recognize the value of the Issarn vote too and go after it. Thereby creating a more equitable society for those who suffer the most discrimination and poverty.

The fact that Issarn people hold such a big percentage of the voting power gives me hope that eventually democracy will triumph over the old class system.

[Martin]

'ando' is right on the button, when he speaks of the derogatory way in which the people of Isaan are denigrated.

Historically, Isaan wasn't really part of Siam. It was an impoverished area from which it wouldn't have been possible to draw any wealth, so it got left to be just a buffer area in which the various warlords could be left to get on with things and save the Siamese in the rich Chao Phya valley from having to worry about invasion by the Khmers from what is now Cambodia, or by the Lao.

Nowadays, it is seen as a handy source of cheap labour that can be drawn on when the economy is booming, but sacked and sent packing when the boom comes to an end.

Most countries would have had an enormous problem with the unemployment that resulted from the 1997 financial 'cock-up' by the so-called highly-educated elite of Bangkok; but Thailand didn't, simply because the majority of the unemployed had their home villages to go back to.

Besides providing Thailand with that massive economic 'shock absorber', Isaan also keeps Thailand well-off by continuously feeding in new, young, brains to the Greater Bangkok/Eastern Seaboard. This is not noticeable, because, being bright, they drop their Lao and speak Central Thai.

I think that in every industrialised or industrialising country in the world, now, a major 'export' from its rural areas is young teachers to its urban areas, but it is particularly noticeable here.

It says a lot for the tolerance of Buddhism that there is a peaceful co-existence between the Thai-Chinese, the non-Chinese Thai, and the Lao-Thai. But getting democratic, political co-existence has a long way to go yet---as we are observing.

It amuses me that the urban elites are so conceited about their position, when they are but secondary, or tertiary, elites.

The primary elite are the self-sufficient land-holding peasantry. With the certainty of enough to eat and a bit of surplus to trade for other things, they have a security that wage/salary earners never have.

Exactly a century ago, Prince Damrong visited Isaan and, except for the going off to work for a while in Bangkok etc, his words are still true today:

"Since entering monthon Udon, I have visited many villages along the way. Some places have large villages established for a long time over many generations. I went down to ask about the social customs of these villagers. From the villagers’ replies, I found one surprising fact. Each village household has a house with enough space for living and a granary to store enough rice for one year. In the yard of the house they plant chili, eggplant, galangal, and lemongrass for making curry. Outside the house they have a garden for fruits such as banana, sugarcane, betel and coconut. And between the garden and the paddy field, there is a place to plant mulberry for raising silkworms. Each household has enough paddy fields and cattle to grow enough rice for the whole household. In the rice-growing season, everyone helps—man and woman, child and adult. After the season, men travel to find things to sell. Women stay at home, raise silk and weave cloth. Leftover food is used to raise chicken and pigs for sale. Villagers around here make all their own food and scarcely have to buy a single thing. The things they have to buy are metal articles like hoes, spades and knives; and crockery. Sometimes they buy yarn for weaving, or cloth and other attractive things brought by traders. They have just enough cash for these purchases because their cattle have surplus young, and they raise extra pigs and chickens with surplus food from each meal. These animals can be sold for cash to buy what they want.

Each family is independent. Nobody is slave and nobody master.

Family members are under the guardianship of the head of their family, and in addition there is a phuyaiban (village headman) and kamnan (sub-district head) to oversee. They administer themselves easily. But in the whole tambon (sub-district) it is impossible to find one rich man with 200 baht or more stored away. Yet you cannot find a single person who is poor to the point of being another’s servant. They must have been like this for a hundred years. Because the villagers can farm to feed themselves without resorting to cash, the feeling that they need cash is not strong. Money does not have the same power as in the city which is called “civilized”. So nobody accumulates but you cannot call them poor because they feed themselves happily and contentedly."

It isn't luxurious, and they'll never ride in a Benz, but those who don't slip up and somehow lose their land will always have a security that, really, is nothing for anyone to be sneering at.

[Plus]

Central Thais and Thai-Chinese have exploited Isan people for ages. Mostly economically, but now politically as well. Politicians trade their votes wholesale, like slaves. The more votes local politicians get the bigger shots they become, so in the end they can sell themselves to TRT for really big money/positions. Newin and Suwat are good examples.

I think the next economic crash, if it ever comes, will hit common folks harder than corporations as it's them, the Isanese, who are most exposed to "non-performing personal loans". Self-sufficient they are might be, Martin, but how do motorcycles and cell-phones bought on 1 mil village fund fit in this concept? How many of them really believe that it's Thaksin's money they have been spending these past five years?

[John K]

Certainly you must consider vote buying and votes of non qualified voters....

So you see if you vote for me I will personally see to it that there are extra juicy insects near your pond.. So what do you say?

[jdinasia]

I for one am eagerly awaiting NEWS ... as watching people that are not living in Thailand or are relatively new here go on about what THEY percieve to be class issues here is getting a bit tiresome (and off topic for the most part imho).

Hopefully we learn more this week!

[tettyan]

I recall a poll from a newspaper posted somewhere back in another thread here which indicated that even in Bangkok the majority of people majority of people believed Thaksin was referring to someone other than royalty.

Don't distort the facts here. I saw the same poll. Yes, only 30 percent thought that Thaksin was referring to HM. But another 60 percent believed he was referring to Gen Prem. Well, Prem is chairman of the Privy Council, the most important advisory body to HM. People arn't stupid - an attack on Gen Prem is seen by most Thais as an attack on you know who. As a point of refernence - just take a look at how long Samak managed to stay on the air after attacking Gen Prem directly back in March.

[tettyan]

Being new to this village I am loathe to address politics TOO much with the locals ...

Jd you should get out there and educate all them new locals and sell them some PAD bumper stickers and bandannas. You you express strong views here, so it should be your duty to pass those thoughts along to all the villagers at every opportunity to protect democracy especially in the bars as I'm sure they would be open to you or maybe not

He doesn't need to. Phuket is in the southern region, which is a Democrat stronghold. It's one of those provinces where TRT struggled to win 20% of the vote in the April election, and where a revote was required because TRT fell short in one of the 2 constituencies there. Anti-Thaksin sentiment is already strong there. This doesn't help much since the south accounts for only one-eighth of the constituency seats in parliament. Contrast that to Isarn, whose voters elect one-third of parliament.

[tettyan]

For those of you that are in Bangkok, have you noticed a subtle change in some of the campaign posters that started going up about 10 days ago? Some of the ones with the number 2 had a small cameo of Thaksin in the upper right corner. In face I remembered where a few were because I walked past them daily. Now they have been replaced with ones without Thaksin on them, and the ones with Thaksin have been moved or removed. I suspect that’s a significant read of happenings behind the scene in that guilt by association may be occurring. They more than likely were printed some time ago.

I noticed the same thing, but it seems to be getting more extreme. In one district, the TRT candidate doesn't even display the party's logo on his campaign posters - only the party's name is displayed in small text on the bottom of his posters. On some of his posters, there's no mention of the party's name at all! Seems like as far as Bangkok is concerned, Thaksin is more a liability than an asset for

TRT.

[lukamar]

'ando' is right on the button, when he speaks of the derogatory way in which the people of Isaan are denigrated.

I would like to add that the comments also relate to the other provinces along the Mekong that are not classed as Issan but speak Northern Thai, a Lao-Thai dialect. Calling a local a Lao in these areas is also very derogatory.

[penzman]

For those of you that are in Bangkok, have you noticed a subtle change in some of the campaign posters that started going up about 10 days ago? Some of the ones with the number 2 had a small cameo of Thaksin in the upper right corner. In face I remembered where a few were because I walked past them daily. Now they have been replaced with ones without Thaksin on them, and the ones with Thaksin have been moved or removed. I suspect that’s a significant read of happenings behind the scene in that guilt by association may be occurring. They more than likely were printed some time ago.

I noticed the same thing, but it seems to be getting more extreme. In one district, the TRT candidate doesn't even display the party's logo on his campaign posters - only the party's name is displayed in small text on the bottom of his posters. On some of his posters, there's no mention of the party's name at all! Seems like as far as Bangkok is concerned, Thaksin is more a liability than an asset for

TRT.

Tricky. I guess if you can't mess with the ballot boxes or their content next time around you 've got to come up with more of these dishonest tactics in order to win votes desperately by fooling voters. Making it hard for voters to know which party a candidate is from should be illegal.

[ando]

I recall a poll from a newspaper posted somewhere back in another thread here which indicated that even in Bangkok the majority of people majority of people believed Thaksin was referring to someone other than royalty.

Don't distort the facts here. I saw the same poll. Yes, only 30 percent thought that Thaksin was referring to HM. But another 60 percent believed he was referring to Gen Prem. Well, Prem is chairman of the Privy Council, the most important advisory body to HM. People arn't stupid - an attack on Gen Prem is seen by most Thais as an attack on you know who. As a point of refernence - just take a look at how long Samak managed to stay on the air after attacking Gen Prem directly back in March.

Certainly not my intention to distort the facts.

Any attack on Prem may well be seen by many Thais as getting too close to an attack on the monarchy itself. I know that Prem is generally held in high regard by most Thais for his past efforts in defending democracy and also because he is the Kings closest adviser. However, Prem is not royalty himself. I believe the complaints laid with the police were re Thaksin insulting the monarchy. If it does come out somewhere down the line that Thaksin was referring to Prem I fail to see how the courts could convict him of insulting HM.

Bangkok polls are representative of only Bangkok and not Thailand. Polls taken in different locations would yield different results. At the big poll that does represent all of Thailand, on election day (whenever that might be), I doubt the ID of the charismatic person will be much of an issue.

[ando]

I visited my up-country Thai relatives after the 97 crash. Everyone who had been away in the city working was back home because of no jobs. It did hit them hard because they had loans to repay. But the rice store was full and there were plenty of chickens and ducks to eat. They got thru it OK.

Now, the place is nearly empty again as most of the 20 to 40 age group are away working in the city again. Even my 74 year old brother in law is working as a security guard in Bangkok.

You look around the village and you see a lot of young kids and a lot of older people. But there is a noticeable absence of people of prime working age.

[jdinasia]

Being new to this village I am loathe to address politics TOO much with the locals ...

Jd you should get out there and educate all them new locals and sell them some PAD bumper stickers and bandannas. You you express strong views here, so it should be your duty to pass those thoughts along to all the villagers at every opportunity to protect democracy especially in the bars as I'm sure they would be open to you or maybe not

He doesn't need to. Phuket is in the southern region, which is a Democrat stronghold. It's one of those provinces where TRT struggled to win 20% of the vote in the April election, and where a revote was required because TRT fell short in one of the 2 constituencies there. Anti-Thaksin sentiment is already strong there. This doesn't help much since the south accounts for only one-eighth of the constituency seats in parliament. Contrast that to Isarn, whose voters elect one-third of parliament.

My village is also by my estimate more than 50% Muslim ...could be a HUGE factor in why they do not <from what I have seen > like TRT and Thaksin.

But since I have been living here a total of 13 days ...I don't feel any more qualified to talk about their beliefs and motivations than I think most folks living overseas and not a part of daily life here are qualified to talk about the thoughts and motivations of the places THEY are not a part of.

We all have experienced "greng jai" and the avoidance of confrontation by some people here and know that many folks will tell you what they think you want to hear rather than their true opinions to avoid insulting you or to avoid conflict. Therefore I submit that unless you are involved in daily life and speak the language enough to gather what people are really thinking from constant exposure ... then you are limited to 1) What people think you want to hear 2) the few viewpoints of people you know closely enough to get a real opinion from on the phone/email 3) The Press <either rabidly pro-Thaksin or apparently anti-Thaksin or most likely 4) Your own opinions projected upon those that you speak to

[lukamar]

But since I have been living here a total of 13 days ...I don't feel any more qualified to talk about their beliefs and motivations than I think most folks living overseas and not a part of daily life here are qualified to talk about the thoughts and motivations of the places THEY are not a part of.

We have every right to voice our opinions on this or any other topic without constantly eliciting your derogatory backhanded slaps about not being in Thailand.

Your post is an OUT AND OUT Troll trying to elicit a fast negative response from all those that do not live in what you seem to think is YOUR country and your forum. You yourself said a couple of posts ago, " watching people that are not living in Thailand or are relatively new here go on about what THEY perceive to be class issues here is getting a bit tiresome.' Another attempted Troll. If you are bored go do something constructive, read a book, take a walk, go watch TV talk to your woman because we get the feeling you have nothing better to do. Differing viewpoints are good as long as everyone is mature enough to discuss issues in a same manner, and then there are some that just want to cause trouble and raise a ruckus. Which one are you? If you don't know, those of us that don't live in Thailand at the moment, and some that do, can tell you.

[hammered]

But since I have been living here a total of 13 days ...I don't feel any more qualified to talk about their beliefs and motivations than I think most folks living overseas and not a part of daily life here are qualified to talk about the thoughts and motivations of the places THEY are not a part of.

We have every right to voice our opinions on this or any other topic without constantly eliciting your derogatory backhanded slaps about not being in Thailand.

Your post is an OUT AND OUT Troll trying to elicit a fast negative response from all those that do not live in what you seem to think is YOUR country and your forum. You yourself said a couple of posts ago, " watching people that are not living in Thailand or are relatively new here go on about what THEY perceive to be class issues here is getting a bit tiresome.' Another attempted Troll. If you are bored go do something constructive, read a book, take a walk, go watch TV talk to your woman because we get the feeling you have nothing better to do. Differing viewpoints are good as long as everyone is mature enough to discuss issues in a same manner, and then there are some that just want to cause trouble and raise a ruckus. Which one are you? If you don't know, those of us that don't live in Thailand at the moment, and some that do, can tell you.

Hey guys lets chill a bit. After all what we discuss on here isnt going to change anything. While it is interesting to discuss, debate and disagree it isnt really worth getting too upset when we dont even have a say let alone a vote.

[ando]

But since I have been living here a total of 13 days ...I don't feel any more qualified to talk about their beliefs and motivations than I think most folks living overseas and not a part of daily life here are qualified to talk about the thoughts and motivations of the places THEY are not a part of.

So what are you trying to say there Jdinasia?

Living in a community with a fairly closed political point of veiw doesn't really give one any greater scope to comment on the greater political scene in Thailand than someone living outside the country. Though the insider information on local political opinion may be interesting, it is not necessarily definitive of how the majority of voters through out the country might feel. Please keep us informed as to what the local people in your new village are thinking once they accept you into their confidence.

Many of the views here are expressed by people who are immersed only in the political culture of Bangkok. Some express views representative of friends or family in the north. A representative view from the Muslim south should be welcomed. A broader cross section of views can only enrich the discussion here.

[chownah]

I recall a poll from a newspaper posted somewhere back in another thread here which indicated that even in Bangkok the majority of people majority of people believed Thaksin was referring to someone other than royalty.

Don't distort the facts here. I saw the same poll. Yes, only 30 percent thought that Thaksin was referring to HM. But another 60 percent believed he was referring to Gen Prem. Well, Prem is chairman of the Privy Council, the most important advisory body to HM. People arn't stupid - an attack on Gen Prem is seen by most Thais as an attack on you know who. As a point of refernence - just take a look at how long Samak managed to stay on the air after attacking Gen Prem directly back in March.

Certainly not my intention to distort the facts.

Any attack on Prem may well be seen by many Thais as getting too close to an attack on the monarchy itself. I know that Prem is generally held in high regard by most Thais for his past efforts in defending democracy and also because he is the Kings closest adviser. However, Prem is not royalty himself. I believe the complaints laid with the police were re Thaksin insulting the monarchy. If it does come out somewhere down the line that Thaksin was referring to Prem I fail to see how the courts could convict him of insulting HM.

Bangkok polls are representative of only Bangkok and not Thailand. Polls taken in different locations would yield different results. At the big poll that does represent all of Thailand, on election day (whenever that might be), I doubt the ID of the charismatic person will be much of an issue.

Writing questionaires for the purpose of taking a valid poll is a science.....and creating questionaires for the purpose of taking a biased poll is also a science....and an art.

For instance:

I could write a questionaire asking the question, "Who does Toxin mean by the "charismatic figure"?" and then leave in a blank for them to fill in. Pollsters don't like questions like these because it takes longer for people to fill out the questionaire and you it takes a lot longer to tabulate the results. Also you need to tell them to write in "don't know" if that is the case and to be totally fair you need to instruct them that if you think that Toxin completely fabricated a fictional "charismatic person" and that he was referring to no one in particular because this is a possible answer as well....

Or...I could write a questinaire with a list of possible people to choose from. I might only include two names...or I might include 3 or more names. I might make a list of people starting with the people I hope will be chosen at the top and then put several ridiculous choices next and then put the people I don't want chosen at the bottom. In this way many impatient people will see a couple of likely candidates at the top and then some ridiculous ones and make the assumption that all the rest are ridiculous and so choose someone at the top. I might include a place for other with a blank for filling in...or I might not. I might include a check box for "don't know"...or I might not.

Also...where do you go to find people to fill out the questionaires? Seems like there is usually about 2,000 responses if memory serves me correctly. This is probably the minimum number need to have a statistically significant sampling size.....but be aware of the fact that this milnimum sample size is only significant if the respondents are chosen in a truly unbiased way so that they do infact represent the population as a whole. My guess is that pollsters who want to keep the cost of collecting responses down will go to shopping mall or schools.....that's where I usually see pollsters collecting responses....if you send four people to each of four shopping malls that will probably get your responses in one day....but they will not be representative of the population as a whole. And further more....why do you think that all of the polls seem to be only form Bangkok? I don't think it is because it is cheaper or faster to do it in other places.

To make a long story no longer....most polls that get reported here are highly suspect at best and probably pure and unadulterated rubbish.