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Investing 300k baht for 15+ years.


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Two members have provided you with excellent posts, I will not repeat but would like to add.

There is no such thing as risk, the way we understand it. That is rule number 1. Most people understand risk, as something scary, and riskier as something even more scary. I would like to clarify that. Time horizon with regards to fluctuations is risk.

1) Time deposits carry no risk, as their principal stays the same, and the income from interests is determined.

2) Bonds carry a higher risk, because they can be traded openly in the secondary market. If you bought a bond that pays you 3.5%, and then next year, the interest rate goes up to 4.5%, the price of your bond will drop, as investors rush to buy the higher interest product and sell your "3.5% product". Most investors would agree interest rates would probably fluctuate between 0-5% in Thailand in general. So maximum loss of principal is fixed in that bracket. I would like to point out, risk exists when you buy this #2 category product and seek to sell it within a few years. However risk may not be evident if you hold it for 5-10 years. You are almost guaranteed your principal back with bonuses of possible capital appreciation and higher interest rates. See the magic of risk now? It's affected by time duration.

3) Stocks will crash every 5 years or every 10 years usually. Am I scared? Are other real investors scared? The simple answer is no. The earlier we accept that fact, the earlier we get down to business and start earning money. I am sure most people know what a graph looks like, it goes up and down. It's just a matter of fact. Take Kbank for example, one of the leading listed banks on the SET, even though their performance has been solid and still on the rise, the price of Kbank will go up and down, that's what usually happens, with regards to investor behavior. I have another line which I call "The Earnings Line". This Earnings Line, is the true line of it's value. And the actual price line is the snake that crosses this Earnings Line. Whenever it drops below it, it's on sale, and the opposite is true.

For simple figures, I will use a 3 point system.

2015 Kbank Price 200

2020 Kbank Price 120

2025 Kbank Price 200

Why I have pointed out, that the time duration is your best friend, which helps you determine risk. In other words, time destroys and minimizes risk. If you are ready to invest that money in less than 5 years, your risk is very high. You would end up with less than 60% of what you originally put in, because you just needed that money immediately at the year 2018. But if you hold it to 2025, I am very confident, even though you bought at the tip highest point in 2015, you would be able to return to that price 10 years later. Time gives you opportunity, gives you options.

The 3 point system might scare you especially 2020, but ask any investors, we are really looking forward to a crash. It's our "mass on sale" time, where we get a lot of quality stocks at unimaginable cheap pricing. Don't be itching to sell stocks during 2020. There is only two paths in investing. The right way and the wrong way. Never both. Natural animal instincts and fear during 2020, will cause us to want to sell. But ask yourself is it the right path? Should I sell when it's cheap on bargain? Wait a minute, if I am selling, does that mean someone is buying my stock? Then isn't that guy smarter than me, since he is buying cheap? Bingo.

Time safeness bracket

1) Time deposits/money market funds

Anytime is safe

2) Bond Funds

5-10 years safe

3) Stocks

10+ years safe

Safe meaning, your principal is highly probable to return to your original amount given the time frame. Anything less, do not touch. If you need your money in 4 years, don't touch stocks. (Sure you could make money, but I am an investor, not a gambler. Gamblers boast how much % they make in a few months or years, then 10 years later you see these losers out of money and complaining about how risky stock markets are. I chose to be an investor, and it works, that's why I am sharing with you.)

Some mutual funds I would like to share, which I own myself.

1) AllianceBernstein-American Income Portfolio 4.7% Dividend Paid monthly (Over 64% investment grade, Inflation 2.09%)

2) AllianceBernstein-European Income Portfolio Clas 4.3% Dividend Paid monthly (50% investment grade, Inflation 0.9%)

This fund is still dropping in NAV, very good enter point, but don't buy yet, it's still a falling knife, wait until it flats out.

3) BGF Euro Bond Fund (91% investment grade) This is my safe haven, not recommended in high percentage. Interest 0.96% Mutual fund inflation 0.49% = Gains of 0.47% Because of low inflation, my hopes is for currency appreciation if you take the mutual fund inflation of 0.49% to Thailand's inflation 2.16% = Expected gain 0.47+1.67= 2% (Note: This 2% is not comparable to your thai interest rate. If you want a comparable number, you take your thai interest rate minus your inflation rate, which I believe is close to 0%. So 2% is attractive.)

I have considered other bond funds, however, I have refrained.

Emerging bonds fund, inflation stands at 7-10%, where is the gain? Sure, capital appreciation due to investor behavior mass buy, but how long will it last? Gamble vs Investing?

Global Bonds, most I am aware of are junk bonds. Over 90% in BBB or B related type bonds. Less than 10% investment grade bonds. Gains? Improvement of 1-2%, but at a higher risk.

At this certain year of investment cycle, my personal idea is safety before gains. I rather earn less, but stay safe this particular year.

4) BGF Global Equity Income Fund (All stocks with dividends, McDonalds, Imperial Tobacco Group, Coca Cola, Nestle, Microsoft, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Chevron, etc.)

In my honest opinion, very solid stocks, which I could sleep quietly even if stocks do crash, which I do believe a crash will occur soon this year or next. If I remember correctly, they pay 3% dividend, and I would suggest not a lump sum investment, but a regular fixed monthly investment. Why? Stocks fluctuate. If you are not experienced enough to choose when to enter, you may be always entering at the wrong time.

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The big banks in Lao are now paying 7 -7.5% per year for 3 year fixed deposit, and the pay the interest yearly in advance.

Not saying how secure this is, but there is some government guarantee up to a certain level.

I just checked on the website

Laos Interest rate 5% Inflation 3.7%

Thailand Inflation 2.16%

Could you please post the quote for the 7%?

If not, I'll use my 5% for now.

Laos 5%-3.7% = Gain 1.3%

Inflation Difference 3.7% - 2.16%= 1.54%

1.3%-1.54%= True Gain/Loss = -0.25% Loss

Thailand > Laos

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Not sure if they have them in Thailand but in the UK we have crowdfunding websites. For those that don't know what they are, they are basically where normal people join together and lend a person/business finance at an agreed rate.

Often it's good for people as the loan is cheaper than the banks will lend them, and quicker depending on how attractive it is. I've been lending some money this way to businesses and have been getting around 8% return for my money. It's a win win really, with the exception of the banks. The business gets a cheaper rate and I get a better return on my savings. At the moment as I'm not in any urgent need for the money I just reinvest the returns each month.

There is the risk of that business going bust but you can choose which businesses you invest in based on their credit rating, obviously the better it is, the less return you will likely get. The idea is to split your lending around a number of different businesses so if one goes belly up it doesn't hurt too much.

It does require a bit of work on your behalf, but I find it weirdly interesting making decisions on who to lend money too.

Good luck.

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I would find a way to put it in fiscal Gold. According to some very top investment guys there is going to be a melt down of the $USA within the next 1-2 years and huge stock market crashes far worst than the USA crash in the 1920's, buy good gold coins like the Kruger, Gold Eagles or Canada one's. If this does happen a lot of banks are going to crash.

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<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

The big banks in Lao are now paying 7 -7.5% per year for 3 year fixed deposit, and the pay the interest yearly in advance.

Not saying how secure this is, but there is some government guarantee up to a certain level.

I just checked on the website

Laos Interest rate 5% Inflation 3.7%

Thailand Inflation 2.16%

Could you please post the quote for the 7%?

If not, I'll use my 5% for now.

Laos 5%-3.7% = Gain 1.3%

Inflation Difference 3.7% - 2.16%= 1.54%

1.3%-1.54%= True Gain/Loss = -0.25% Loss

Thailand > Laos

Sorry but I can not post a direct link.

I only posted it as something to check into. A friend of mine made a term deposit last year at one of the larger Lao banks, (it had a french name) and

that was the terms that he received.

He received his first years interest deposited to a second account within a week of making the term deposit. He has recently received his second years interest automatically deposited to the same account without incident.

His negotiated interest rate is 7% PA. He was also offered 7.5% this year, if he wished to make a further deposit. The deposit is based in U.S. Dollars.

He is very reliable & has no reason to deceive me. When he first asked me what I thought about it, i had some concerns, but he was convinced by another friend who has been using this bank for more than ten years, and it seems to be legitimate.

That is all I can tell you.

Good luck

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15 years is just too long to lock up your money for a minimum term. Yes it requires little effort and little return. I can show you a way to make $600 usd paid monthly into your account, but the investment you would need to come up with is 380,000 baht. Downfall is your money will be locked in for 18months contract. You can take your money out then, or you can choose to reinvest the 380,000. If you want more info. My email is <removed>

What you're offering here is an annual return of well over 50%.

Scammer.

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I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

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I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

Well give us the name then.

8% monthly return is simply not even remotely possible.

Edited by 12DrinkMore
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<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

The big banks in Lao are now paying 7 -7.5% per year for 3 year fixed deposit, and the pay the interest yearly in advance.

Not saying how secure this is, but there is some government guarantee up to a certain level.

I just checked on the website

Laos Interest rate 5% Inflation 3.7%

Thailand Inflation 2.16%

Could you please post the quote for the 7%?

If not, I'll use my 5% for now.

Laos 5%-3.7% = Gain 1.3%

Inflation Difference 3.7% - 2.16%= 1.54%

1.3%-1.54%= True Gain/Loss = -0.25% Loss

Thailand > Laos

You forgot to deduct the amount you will be charged for changing the money (twice) and also forgot to mention the huge currency risk. Also do we even trust these banks to not go bust, result= -100%?

Den

Edited by denby45
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My take on all of this is clear. I am sitting on my hands right now and waiting for the huge crash and/or rampant inflation to get a better picture.

I believe locking money into very long term even if possible would be a big mistake.

Mutual funds as far as I am concerned are sharks in disguise. They profess to manage your account and charge excessive fees while following like sheep the rest of the herd. 90% of the time they don't even match or better the stock market oftentimes doing much worse. In saying that the usual relative safe low cost index fund haven (long term) at the moment should not be considered. The downside risk today is just too great. We should all be patient for now. I am not sure how long the Central Banksters can play their game so there is even risk to sitting on the sidelines but for sure their house of cards has to come down one day. After the smoke has cleared I will re-assess my position. However for now I am doing short term deposits 3-6 months then rolling it over each time. I am completely out of the stock markets and sold my gold. (not quite at the right time but I did OK.) Please do not be enticed by the post above professing he can return >60%. You will lose all of your money. I think the guys name is Mr. Ponzi.

Den

Edited by denby45
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I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

Do me a favour mate and search out and read some stuff on former billionaire Bernie Madoff before you invest any of your own money in this.

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Hope it's not.. hopefully a few of you guys can do some research. .. maxim trader is the name of the group

We don't have to do research to see this is a Ponzi Scheme. I can only reiterate what others on here have advised you. For your own good, please do not get involved in this Scheme.

Den

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15 years is just too long to lock up your money for a minimum term. Yes it requires little effort and little return. I can show you a way to make $600 usd paid monthly into your account, but the investment you would need to come up with is 380,000 baht. Downfall is your money will be locked in for 18months contract. You can take your money out then, or you can choose to reinvest the 380,000. If you want more info. My email is <removed>

.

If what you're posting is legitimate why don't you just post the details on the open forum? That way it could be open to discussion in relation to this thread. Surely you aren't hiding anything.

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Hope it's not.. hopefully a few of you guys can do some research. .. maxim trader is the name of the group

We don't have to do research to see this is a Ponzi Scheme. I can only reiterate what others on here have advised you. For your own good, please do not get involved in this Scheme.

Den

OK you don’t seem convinced so I will do you a favor. It appears they are also busy in Malaysia.

Check out the Financial Consumer Alert list on the BNM website

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_financialconsumeralert〈=en

Hope this helps you to make up your mind.

Den

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15 years is just too long to lock up your money for a minimum term. Yes it requires little effort and little return. I can show you a way to make $600 usd paid monthly into your account, but the investment you would need to come up with is 380,000 baht. Downfall is your money will be locked in for 18months contract. You can take your money out then, or you can choose to reinvest the 380,000. If you want more info. My email is <removed>

If what you're posting is legitimate why don't you just post the details on the open forum? That way it could be open to discussion in relation to this thread. Surely you aren't hiding anything.

Well, he sort of did.

Here is the "reported returns" on their managed fund until May. June and July do not seem to be available.

http://partner.maximtrader.com/download/downloadFundManagementReport/p/may_2014

Totally awesome!

I wonder why they want other people join in the fun and give away all those "profits"?cheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gif

Anyway here is the brilliant team:

http://maximtraders.blogspot.com/

Note they just around to saying that if you deposit USD 5,500 they will deduct USD 500 up front. Wonder why, in the light of all the profits they shower on you every month?

And Maxim Traders is a subsidiary of the Royale Globe Holding Inc.

Maybe check out what these guys are up to.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=ROGP

OH! Not exactly a whole lot. That is a bit strange.

Put your trust in the management team.

Mr Eric Teh

Ms Windy Wong

Ms Debbie Tan

Ms Pinky Kuok

They will take care of you! thumbsup.gif

And as they claim to have an Asian Honesty Award 2013, maybe we had better check out the winners?

http://www.honestyaward.asia/kerisaward/winners.htm

Oh NO! Surely that cannot be?

They do not appear on the list.

Must be a mistake. Somewhere.cheesy.gifcheesy.gifcheesy.gif

Come on guys, liquidate everything and let's pile in. We are surely onto a winner here. clap2.gif.pagespeed.ce.z5euFoXm0J.gif clap2.gif.pagespeed.ce.z5euFoXm0J.gif

(Sorry, too much time on my hands today)hit-the-fan.gif.pagespeed.ce.6UelFDbFNJ.

Me thinks you are being a little bit sarcastic. No? Anyway I have lots of money I want to lose so count me in.

Den

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Me thinks you are being a little bit sarcastic. No? Anyway I have lots of money I want to lose so count me in.

Den

OK, you are IN!!!!

Well done, this could be the best financial investment you have ever made.

I'll PM you with my bank account details, indeed anybody else who wants to join in can PM me.

I offer a 100% honesty guarantee.

You will see absolutely nothing back.

But rest assured, your place in heaven will have my total guarantee. You can come and haunt me forever if it doesn't quite work out.

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Denby45 that's weird I actually have seen the honesty award it was on there, how the hell did you remove it...photo shop...lol

Also if it's such a hoax why are they all making 5-8 % per month. I have seen them log in. I have seen their statements. .. While we are sarcastically laughing at them, they are collecting... you will not find one customer here or anywhere who registered invested, and lost or not received the targeted amount. ...hmm I wonder why. Come smart butt where are all these thousands of investors who have lost all their money. I'm sure you can find a blog out their, or just make one up.

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I would find a way to put it in fiscal Gold. According to some very top investment guys there is going to be a melt down of the $USA within the next 1-2 years and huge stock market crashes far worst than the USA crash in the 1920's, buy good gold coins like the Kruger, Gold Eagles or Canada one's. If this does happen a lot of banks are going to crash.

The South African ones are a bit bellow par don't you know

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When My Daughter was born 19 years ago, I enrolled at a college fund program available in her home state of Florida USA, It locked the price of her tuition at the day we entered the program and it had a small monthly fee of $120 usd until she graduated from High school and was ready for College.With it she can attend any state University in Florida and if she decides not to go to Uni, the funds are returned to her.

Most states in the US have similar programs, I wonder if a similar program is available where you are located.

in Investing the 300,000 bht keep the flowing principle in mind, it is called the rule of 72

and it pertains to the length of time or the percentage necessary to double your money

72 divided by years = rate necessary to double your funds so

72/16=4.5%

or if you need a bigger return let's say you wanted to double your money in 2.4 years you will need a return of

72 /30=2.4 30 being the necessary percentage rate of return

Edited by sirineou
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Buy a Good Thai Bank Stock.

Stock generally always outdo inflation. You will seldom lose on one of those and over the years they will grow. They also pay dividends, which can be reinvested. No Tax Obligation until they are sold, but no sure about the rules on dividends here.

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Denby45 that's weird I actually have seen the honesty award it was on there, how the hell did you remove it...photo shop...lol

Also if it's such a hoax why are they all making 5-8 % per month. I have seen them log in. I have seen their statements. .. While we are sarcastically laughing at them, they are collecting... you will not find one customer here or anywhere who registered invested, and lost or not received the targeted amount. ...hmm I wonder why. Come smart butt where are all these thousands of investors who have lost all their money. I'm sure you can find a blog out their, or just make one up.

We have progressed from you knowing one lady to seeing a bunch of people log in and seeing their statements.

How do you know such investors? Why can you personally see their statements?

And there may not be thousands of investors who have lost their money.

Because there may not have been thousands of investors.

Or even just a few investors.

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Simple answer is regarding an investment of 300000 baht in Thailand on a continual 15 year basis, is that there are very few decent options.

Firstly, buying land outside of a desirable area would hardly be an investment, probably will be impossible to sell later on without a loss unless by chance the area is developed and then there are the legal implications to consider regarding foreigners purchasing land on behalf of Thais, even if it`s for a family member.

Fixed bank accounts are mostly always promotions that only last for a small number of years and their interest rates are hardly worth mentioning unless one is thinking of placing a few million bahts into the accounts.

As for considering investing the money in gold, for the amount of 300k it would hardly be worth the effort and of course gold prices can go down, so you could lose out here big time.

There are Thai Government bonds that will probably yield better interest rates than the regular banks accounts, but these are not risk free and I would only recommend the purchase of Government bonds to those who have money marketing experience and know the score.

The best bet would be to open a savings insurance policy at a well known established Thai bank, one that will mature in the next 15 years or for whatever period the policy holder requires. Also it is possible to add and pay into the policy each month that should pay good dividends once the policy matures at the end of it`s term, much higher returns than with a bank account. Check with the bank that the money is protected if in the event the insurance company goes bust and terms and clauses that are subject to the policy. This would be my first main line of inquiry.

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