Scottish independence: Yes camp hails 'momentum'

[transam]

Heeeeeey, SNP is doing this stuff, if it were Labour I would quote Labour. Lets not go off to a tangent eh. My questions have been totally legitimate, plain and simple chap...

Money

Oil

Currency

Welfare are all relevant, well to me they are. Hey, don't fear questions if you are in the right............

[jpinx]

Heeeeeey, SNP is doing this stuff, if it were Labour I would quote Labour. Lets not go off to a tangent eh. My questions have been totally legitimate, plain and simple chap...

Money

Oil

Currency

Welfare are all relevant, well to me they are. Hey, don't fear questions if you are in the right............

SNP is not doing this. The scottish people are doing this. The Scottish parliament will do the mechanics needed, but this is a referendum -- not an election. Please get that straight......

[transam]

Heeeeeey, SNP is doing this stuff, if it were Labour I would quote Labour. Lets not go off to a tangent eh. My questions have been totally legitimate, plain and simple chap...

Money

Oil

Currency

Welfare are all relevant, well to me they are. Hey, don't fear questions if you are in the right............

SNP is not doing this. The scottish people are doing this. The Scottish parliament will do the mechanics needed, but this is a referendum -- not an election. Please get that straight......

OK,........

[wilcopops]

Billy Bragg seems to agree with me.....

"Now that the English are waking up to the possibility that the Scots may leave the UK, I'm getting tired of reading articles by commentators who say they will feel sad if this happens. They need to grow up - respect for self-determination is the mark of a mature democracy.

While they get all emotional, I'm pleased to see that there are some at Westminster who recognise that the Scots have done us a huge favour by putting English devolution on the agenda."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/scottish-devolution-timetable-powers-english-regions?CMP=twt_gu

[loppylugs1]

Billy Bragg seems to agree with me.....

"Now that the English are waking up to the possibility that the Scots may leave the UK, I'm getting tired of reading articles by commentators who say they will feel sad if this happens. They need to grow up - respect for self-determination is the mark of a mature democracy.

While they get all emotional, I'm pleased to see that there are some at Westminster who recognise that the Scots have done us a huge favour by putting English devolution on the agenda."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/scottish-devolution-timetable-powers-english-regions?CMP=twt_gu

Good point

Yes given a chance the English would have kicked scotlands goolys a fair few years ago,but now scotland cannot accuse England of any wrongdoings now,all down to scotland Serious infighting now for scotland,good for them,if the no wins the vote they will be looked on as cowards,even Westminster will treat them like a leftover from a dogs dinner

[BKK Blues Brother]

^ With all the attention this subject is getting in the media the English have become enlightened as to Scotlands favouritism in everything.

If they do not vote Yes there will be a revolt south of the border for similar concessions.(Free university!!/old age care!!/prescriptions!!/etc!!!

If they vote no then they are going to have to eat a lot of humble pie and make concessions just like 1979.

How long till another vote and more wasted tax payers money?

Make the Shetland Isles independent and King Salmond in charge with his SNP bover boys as loyal laccies.

[soihok]

Who cares about this anyway.

Ultimately nothing will change within the next 30 years or so.

[soihok]

A bit like watching grass grow

[MJP]

^^ 39 and a half.

[baboon]

^^ 39 and a half.

Are you aware that there are certain websites that could assist you with a quality J. Arthur?

[MJP]

^^ 39 and a half.

Are you aware that there are certain websites that could assist you with a quality J. Arthur?

Found one . . .

http://www.thecrossstitchguild.com/

[Aceicol]

Billy Bragg seems to agree with me.....

"Now that the English are waking up to the possibility that the Scots may leave the UK, I'm getting tired of reading articles by commentators who say they will feel sad if this happens. They need to grow up - respect for self-determination is the mark of a mature democracy.

While they get all emotional, I'm pleased to see that there are some at Westminster who recognise that the Scots have done us a huge favour by putting English devolution on the agenda."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/scottish-devolution-timetable-powers-english-regions?CMP=twt_gu

Billy Bragg probably just wants to create more civil servants.

Edited September 9, 2014 by Aceicol

[MJP]

Scotland joins the EU . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVk4nh-hBKY

Oh come on, this thread's nothing without a bit a Rab!

[nontabury]

The value of major Scottish companies has fallen by billions of pounds after the stock market was spooked by polling giving the yes vote a lead ahead of the referendum.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/08/scottish-independence-companies-billions-of-pounds-value-loss-pro-independence-poll-lead

A while back one of the Nationalist was gleefully making predictions of an economic Armageddon to the UK in the event of separation, implying that somehow, miraculously Scotland would not be affected. Well what is happening, yes the £ has lost approximately 2% of its value against the US dollar, yet I recall reading articles a few months back in which currency traders considered the £ to have been overvalued by approx 5%, just think back one year ago, how many Bhts were you then receiving.

Will this economic uncertainty and turbulence effect everybody's mortgages,pensions savings etc, of course it will, maybe for 3 months or maybe for 18 months, who knows it's anybodies guess, yet to suggest that the Scottish people will be exempt from this upheaval is stupidity at the highest.

What is more telling is what is happening to the stock market, so far it's only gone down slightly, yet on closer analysis of the numbers it would appear that it is mostly Scottish institutions who are seeing their value plummet "why" simple because the markets do not share the nationalist view of a future Scottish economy, in fact Paul Krugman an American ( and also an unbiased observer) Noble award winning economist, says that the Scottish people should be very,very afraid of the economic consequences of separation, while Nicola Sturgeon says the markets are acknowledging the strength of the Scottish economy. Who do you believe has got it right?

[BKK Blues Brother]

If polls were reliable, you would expect odds of about evens on both yes and no, reflecting a 50% chance of either. Instead the odds say 2/5 for no (implying a 70% chance) and 12/5 for yes (implying a 30% chance). Why are bookmakers so certain that Scotland will say no?

[rajyindee]

If polls were reliable, you would expect odds of about evens on both yes and no, reflecting a 50% chance of either. Instead the odds say 2/5 for no (implying a 70% chance) and 12/5 for yes (implying a 30% chance). Why are bookmakers so certain that Scotland will say no?

The odds reflect the bets they have taken. However, much of the cash that has been laid has come from outside Scotland, from folk who don't have any say whatsoever in the matter. A bit like this thread.

Edited September 9, 2014 by rajyindee

[cdnvic]

Off topic content and some personal attacks removed. Try to get along guys.

[BKK Blues Brother]

A yes camp voter switches over to No...

This is why...

In short, everything that has happened in Europe since 2009 or so has demonstrated that sharing a currency without sharing a government is very dangerous. In economics jargon, fiscal and banking integration are essential elements of an optimum currency area. And an independent Scotland using Britain’s pound would be in even worse shape than euro countries, which at least have some say in how the European Central Bank is run.

I find it mind-boggling that Scotland would consider going down this path after all that has happened in the last few years. If Scottish voters really believe that it’s safe to become a country without a currency, they have been badly misled.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=1

Any chance of an answer by a blinkered flag waver?

Dealing a sizeable blow to pro-independence campaigners, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has said that “a currency union is incompatible with sovereignty”.

Speaking at the TUC Congress in Liverpool, Mr Carney made clear that an independent Scotland would fail to meet the criteria of a successful currency union.

A proper union would require free trade, banking union, and a fiscal backstop, he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11084339/Mark-Carney-Currency-union-is-incompatible-with-Scottish-independence.html

Any chance of an answer by a blinkered flag waver?

Edited September 9, 2014 by BKK Blues Brother

[BKK Blues Brother]

[BKK Blues Brother]

[David48]

I know you guys are in a passionate debate, but the News here in Australia has been focused on the Vote next week.

Prime time Radio (drive time afternoon) and TV discussions (Morning Breakfast News).

So many Aussies, who may have been unaware the auspicious Vote about to be undertaken are now the wiser.

.

[MJP]

I know you guys are in a passionate debate, but the News here in Australia has been focused on the Vote next week.

Prime time Radio (drive time afternoon) and TV discussions (Morning Breakfast News).

So many Aussies, who may have been unaware the auspicious Vote about to be undertaken are now the wiser.

.

I'm in the UK at the moment and I can tell you now, not many people really care. Not in England at least. There's a vague passing interest at best.

[David48]

What does David48 think?

I see the fiscal argument being offered for the Yes vote to based more on Hope then Fact.

Then again ... no-one has a fiscal crystal ball ... otherwise I'd be on the Tahiti Visa Forum ...

I do feel the passion of the Scots and sometimes, this passion, quite rightly outweigh the Fiscal considerations.

But, undoubtedly, for me, the right to self determination is paramount.

If there is a YES vote for Independence then I say great, the majority of the people have spoken and their voice has been heard.

My true wish is, what ever the result of the vote, it's definitive and there is no outbreaks of public unrest from the losing side.

Scotland ... go do what is best for Scotland.

.

[bkk_mike]

I think a break up of the UK will be a disaster for everyone involved. I also despair that a film and a television debate could be the basis of a 'yes' vote, particularly among the young.

I'm English and 100% agree it's for the Scot's to decide this issue. But is it the Scots?. What about the thousands that live in England, Wales and N Ireland - not to mention those living abroad. They have no say. What about the English and immigrants living in Scotland who do have a say?.

It's an irreversible decision, not like a general election where you can reverse things at the next polling day. That's what worries me. That teenager swimmer that won the gold medal and held his fist up crying 'freedom' summed some of it up for me. You would think Scotland was Albania or something under the Soviets.

I know all the issues such as currency etc. have been well discussed, without any clear answer but, at the end of the day Scotland will be a foreign country and so will England. The EU issue would then be interesting. Suppose Scotland applies to join and just as the application is being approved the rest of the UK leave the EU under the Cameron referendum?. What is the position on freedom of movement between and EU and non EU country?. Border controls on the M6 are not such an absurd proposition after all. Someone on this forum can tell me that I'm sure.

The first thing ex pat's in Thailand will notice with a 'yes' vote is a major fall in the pound. It has already been falling gradually due to the uncertainty. By the way, why does the yes campaign want to keep the pound with interest rates for example being set by London?

I assume Scotland will have a president rather than the current monarchy. I wonder who that might be?.

Also, what happens to all those Scots with UK passports?. Those in England can use them but Scots in Scotland will have to have their own?.

I honestly am not trying to be smart. I love Scotland and have spent many happy times in that country both working and holidaymaking.

But....if I were Scot and had a vote I think it would certainly be 'No'. I just think there are so many uncertainties and complexities with uncoupling the two countries after 3/4 hundred years that it's too risky.

I've been a Labour voter all my life and would never want a Tory government if I had my way. But that's democracy for you.

I'm a Scot, living in London, and I'm definitely a yes supporter, even if it would be bad for me personally. (Stuck in the rest of the UK, with no oil money left to pay for things).

As for the EU - lots of people don't realise this, but Scotland is the only part of the UK that's pro-EU, and one of the reasons a Yes is looking more likely is Nigel Farage, and the Tories trying to have a referendum on the EU as their attempt to keep him from taking seats from them.

There were 5 options (if anyone ever actually read the White paper).

1. Pound in a currency union. This makes the most sense if you're going to be taking on a share of the UK debt in Sterling. (i.e. Why would you want to take on debt in a currency you can't use.)

2. Sterlingisation. This is essentially continuing to use the pound without an agreement. This is a decent short term solution, but it's not a viable long-term solution because Scotland would have an issue without a lender of last resort given the number of insurance companies and other financial firms based in Edinburgh.

3. A Scottish pound pegged to the UK pound. (The Hong Kong solution - or similar to what Ireland did with the Punt prior to them joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism in the 70s.) In the absence of a currency union, this is probably the most likely answer, possibly after a period of Sterlingisation.

4. A floating Scottish currency.

5. The Euro (although EU law says you can't simply choose to use the Euro, you have to go through stages where your currency is kept stable to the Euro in the ERM first). This is unlikely, at least while the Euro is still suffering it's current problems. In the long term, we may, like Ireland, prefer this option to sticking with Sterling.

Scots assume 1. will happen regardless of the statements from Osborne, Balls and Alexander, simply because Scotland would have no legal obligation to take on any debt when it separates. It's purely because it's seen as the right thing to do. But forcing us to use another currency would probably result in the loss of a certain amount of goodwill in that regard, so would definitely come with a probable reduction in the debt taken on.

As for the pound falling - that's yet another reason why a currency union may well be announced before too long after a yes - because it's a quick way of getting rid of the uncertainty that's unsettling the markets.

No president - it's the current monarchy (similar to Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc.).

After all - the union of the crowns with James VI of Scotland becoming James I of England after the original Queen Elizabeth died came the century before the United Kingdom.

I believe the plan would be for anyone that already has a British passport to keep it, and also be eligible to get a Scottish passport. However, over time, your descendants, if born in Scotland, would lose that eligibility. This would be similar to what happened when Ireland left (and they actually had an armed struggle, not a vote). If you bother to check, people born in Ireland prior to 1948 can still get a British Subject passport, despite the Irish Free State splitting off in 1923. It's one reason why Scots probably wouldn't be too badly affected personally by a period of non-EU membership, because their existing British passport would still give them freedom of movement. Similarly, nationals of other EU countries are unlikely to face deportation barring some country (Spain?) choosing to use a veto to stop Scotland joining the EU quickly.

As for jobs possibly moving south because the bigger market is the UK. That's a two-way street. There would probably be a similar movement of jobs to Scotland for the oil industry. (Not many people realise that over 50% of oil-related jobs in the UK aren't based in Scotland. That "sort-of" made sense while the UK is one country, but from knowing the hassle of dealing with people working remotely from France for a job in London, the paperwork involved in employing people in England to work offshore in Scotland would probably force people (or their jobs if they're unwilling to move) to move north.

Remember that the Tories came 4th in Scotland, and we still got a Tory government. It's decades of that happening is yet another reason that makes people want to vote Yes, Because it means we'll only ever get the government we vote for. And with proportional representation, and no anachronistic House of Lords, the Scottish parliament is actually lot more like the norm in the rest of the EU.

To be honest, English people should hope for a Yes also. Because a close No will fester for years until the next vote, especially if Boris ends up as Prime Minister.

As for a Currency Union meaning you're not truly independent.

We'd still be a lot more in charge of what's going in Scotland than by staying in the UK as although budgets might be restricted, we'd still be able to choose how to spend 100% of that budget, as opposed to the current 8% of spending in Scotland that the Scottish government is responsible for.

Always remember Cameron is the one who made the choice to not have Devo Max on the ballot papers which would have almost certainly meant no possibility at all of a Yes vote. (The last couple of days there are lots of timetables for additional powers, but it appears to just be a speeding up of the different "Devo Nano" proposals that the 3 pro-union parties came out with earlier in the year, which include such idiosyncracies as Labour saying the Scottish Government would get control of housing benefit, but the Conservatives saying that it would be impossible to give the Scottish government control of Housing Benefit because of the changeover to the new Universal benefits.)

Edited September 9, 2014 by bkk_mike

[pitrevie]

It appears to me that the Scots lack any conviction for wanting independence. At least when the Irish expressed the same wish they set up their own currency and they had their own head of state. All we have had from Scotland is a shopping list of what they want to keep while telling us that they really do want independence.

[jpinx]

The value of major Scottish companies has fallen by billions of pounds after the stock market was spooked by polling giving the yes vote a lead ahead of the referendum.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/08/scottish-independence-companies-billions-of-pounds-value-loss-pro-independence-poll-lead

A while back one of the Nationalist was gleefully making predictions of an economic Armageddon to the UK in the event of separation, implying that somehow, miraculously Scotland would not be affected. Well what is happening, yes the £ has lost approximately 2% of its value against the US dollar, yet I recall reading articles a few months back in which currency traders considered the £ to have been overvalued by approx 5%, just think back one year ago, how many Bhts were you then receiving.

Will this economic uncertainty and turbulence effect everybody's mortgages,pensions savings etc, of course it will, maybe for 3 months or maybe for 18 months, who knows it's anybodies guess, yet to suggest that the Scottish people will be exempt from this upheaval is stupidity at the highest.

What is more telling is what is happening to the stock market, so far it's only gone down slightly, yet on closer analysis of the numbers it would appear that it is mostly Scottish institutions who are seeing their value plummet "why" simple because the markets do not share the nationalist view of a future Scottish economy, in fact Paul Krugman an American ( and also an unbiased observer) Noble award winning economist, says that the Scottish people should be very,very afraid of the economic consequences of separation, while Nicola Sturgeon says the markets are acknowledging the strength of the Scottish economy. Who do you believe has got it right?

=================>>

I agree totally that the current sterling rates dip is much more likely to be a continuation of the trends that sterling has been set on for some time. Sterling will benefit from a yes vote and Scotland continuing to use sterling. The Scottish economy will bloom when it's road into the future is clear. Meantime the "economists" will continue to predict gloom for 2 reasons --

1. They have a reputation to keep and a negative prediction is much easier to justify when it proves to be wrong.

2. They have backed the negative option and have a vested interest in it.

Meantime the stock market putters along with no major trends showing - and that shows investor indifference to the effects of the vote either way. Close analysis of those "Scottish institutions" which are going down will reveal that the effect is for reasons other than looming independence. How many Scottish institutions are actually rising?

As for the bookies, it is well-known that big money has been placed to force the odds in the direction they have gone -- again for reasons of vested interests. There's some people are going to make a killing on a Yes vote

[siampolee]

Well here is a delightful article that shows very clearly what may well happen if Scotland goes it alone.

Note though the Scots are not going it alone the remaining piece of England and its peoples are liable to pick up the bill.

However the short term may be a breeze for the Scots but long term, indeed a very bleak future socially and politically for the Scots.

The S.N.P. are indeed going to be inflicting a serious wound to themselves and the Scottish people in general in their quest for power.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11082976/Britain-faces-storm-as-giant-global-investors-awaken-to-break-up-dangers.html

[uptheos]

The value of the pound has fallen in the wake of an opinion poll which suggested the pro-UK campaign had lost its lead ahead of the Scottish independence referendum.

Sterling fell by about 1.3% against the US dollar to a 10-month low of $1.61.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29105565

[jpinx]

It appears to me that the Scots lack any conviction for wanting independence. At least when the Irish expressed the same wish they set up their own currency and they had their own head of state. All we have had from Scotland is a shopping list of what they want to keep while telling us that they really do want independence.

=========================>>

The Irish had a currency long before they got independence, but always pegged to sterling. Even after independence it was pegged for many years. Scotland too had a currency but in the same way - it has been pegged to the pound and over the last 300-odd years it has been superceded. Returning to the old Scots Pund is an option, but it would probably be done with the same pegging to sterling as Ireland did before and HongKong still does today.

Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland and Clydesdale Bank all print banknotes anyway.

[pitrevie]

It appears to me that the Scots lack any conviction for wanting independence. At least when the Irish expressed the same wish they set up their own currency and they had their own head of state. All we have had from Scotland is a shopping list of what they want to keep while telling us that they really do want independence.

=========================>>

The Irish had a currency long before they got independence, but always pegged to sterling. Even after independence it was pegged for many years. Scotland too had a currency but in the same way - it has been pegged to the pound and over the last 300-odd years it has been superceded. Returning to the old Scots Pund is an option, but it would probably be done with the same pegging to sterling as Ireland did before and HongKong still does today.

Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland and Clydesdale Bank all print banknotes anyway.

Good so no need to keep the pound they can adopt their own currency and peg it to whatever you like. Also make good old Alex your head of state, what is this thing with keeping some outdated monarchy?