Dr Seri predicts widespread drought in Thailand next year

[JohnThailandJohn]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

This year's flooding is due to poor water management infrastructure, deforestation and corruption (poorly built dykes collapsing), not due to higher than normal rainfall.

This map shows the difference from average rainfall for this year. The red areas have much less rainfall than normal and the blue have greater rainfall than average. As you can see, most of Thailand has had considerably less rainfall than average this year. Most of the areas that have had more than average rainfall drain into the Mekhong, not the Chao Phraya.

While I agree with what you are saying and find it insightful, the only part I question is dykes collapsing this year. Has this actually been happening? Has there even been any unexpected flooding or has it mainly been in areas that are known and expected to flood (flood basins)? Not saying you are incorrect but asking as I have not followed the flooding stories but based on headlines I have seen it just seems to be the normal expected flooding this region sees every year and has and will for many decades, if not centuries.

Edited September 12, 2014 by JohnThailandJohn

[elgordo38]

The Bible states there will be 7 fat years followed by 7 lean years. Maybe Songkran will last only 3 hours instead of 3 days.

[MaxLee]

"Dr Seri predicts a dry year next year"

But Dr. Seri, we have flood season now, many places are again flooded and it'll torrentially rain for 2 more months.

Hey, Dr. Seri, we predict another flood next year, too...

Edited September 12, 2014 by MaxLee

[Krataiboy]

Maybe we can persuade the good Dr Seri to lend his magic crystal ball to the Western television forecasters whose seem unable to predict what is going to happen over the next couple of days, let alone two or three years.

[Searat7]

I think there will be a severe shortage of water next year too and wonder how much water could be saved with a "Waterless Songkran".

[worgeordie]

I am pretty sure there will be drought next year,because its started

this year,not a lot of rain in Chiang Mai,and the dams are only about

half full,so if it does not start raining regularly and downpours,i can

see big problems,next year.but like everyone else its a calculated guess.

regards Worgeordie

[harryfrompattaya]

it would be nice to know the level of accuracy on any of his previous predictions

Very smart very wonderful Thailand is lucky to have him

[wilcopops]

I think there will be a severe shortage of water next year too and wonder how much water could be saved with a "Waterless Songkran".

Utterly fatuous statement - Clearly you have absolutely NO IDEA of the quantities of water involved in day to day life and how they DWARF the amounts used in Song Khran.

just think how much one day's heavy rain affects a town like Pattaya and compare that to 5 days of energetic water hurling by hundreds of thousands of people.

[wilcopops]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

This year's flooding is due to poor water management infrastructure, deforestation and corruption (poorly built dykes collapsing), not due to higher than normal rainfall.

This map shows the difference from average rainfall for this year. The red areas have much less rainfall than normal and the blue have greater rainfall than average. As you can see, most of Thailand has had considerably less rainfall than average this year. Most of the areas that have had more than average rainfall drain into the Mekhong, not the Chao Phraya.

While I agree with what you are saying and find it insightful, the only part I question is dykes collapsing this year. Has this actually been happening? Has there even been any unexpected flooding or has it mainly been in areas that are known and expected to flood (flood basins)? Not saying you are incorrect but asking as I have not followed the flooding stories but based on headlines I have seen it just seems to be the normal expected flooding this region sees every year and has and will for many decades, if not centuries.

Rainfall is only PART of the picture.....it is catchment and storage.....for instance very little of the Mae Kong river's water actually falls in Thailand.

Rain doesn't necessarily mean either no drought or drought, it is how much is available for use from rivers and or storage. New dams aren't the solution either.......re-forestation might help.......

Thailand as with many countries loses huge amounts of water (up to 30%) through poor distribution...leaks, evaporation, wastage etc.......... sort those out, and you'll have plenty of water......

Edited September 12, 2014 by wilcopops

[wilcopops]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

all based on ONE source?

[wilcopops]

Thailand's water problems have little to do with "El Nino" - they are largely brought about by the countries lack of infrastructure and inability to handle the water supplies efficiently.

i expect someone will try and blame it on black magic next?

Edited September 12, 2014 by wilcopops

[JohnThailandJohn]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

all based on ONE source?

If numerous experts and forecasters from multiple countries would be considered one source because they possibly may have come to the same conclusions using the same facts and scientific modeling then yes, one source.

[wilcopops]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

all based on ONE source?

If numerous experts and forecasters from multiple countries would be considered one source because they possibly may have come to the same conclusions using the same facts and scientific modeling then yes, one source.

Yes- but that's not the case is it - they are SECONDARY and TERTIARY sources - the primary one is the same.

[JohnThailandJohn]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

all based on ONE source?

If numerous experts and forecasters from multiple countries would be considered one source because they possibly may have come to the same conclusions using the same facts and scientific modeling then yes, one source.

Yes- but that's not the case is it - they are SECONDARY and TERTIARY sources - the primary one is the same.

Actually that IS THE CASE. As mentioned in links and simply doing a search on the subject, NUMEROUS SCIENTISTS AND FORECASTERS FROM MULTIPLE COUNTRIES have come to the same conclusion with slightly varying odds.

Edited September 13, 2014 by JohnThailandJohn

[wilcopops]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

All these are more than 4 months old....

Any more recent ones out there?

As you probably know, things can change in the course of 4 months.

The guy doesn't know how to check his sources either...they're all from the same source.....

[JohnThailandJohn]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

All these are more than 4 months old....

Any more recent ones out there?

As you probably know, things can change in the course of 4 months.

The guy doesn't know how to check his sources either...they're all from the same source.....

Numerous sources based on data collection and experts from numerous countries across the globe. And an El Nino is not a weekend weather pattern. 4-Months ago is when data was released regarding this condition that would have a prolonged effect.

Link 1 - The dry weather has already spread to 38 of 77 provinces since September, Anan Lila, secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics, said in an interview today. The minor rice crop that’s now being harvested may drop 12 percent to 10.74 million metric tons, said Anan.

Link 2 - The world’s major meteorological organizations have issued alerts about the increasing probability of an El Niño event... Historically, Southeast Asian countries see significant climate-related problems with El Niños

Link 3 - Maytee Mahayosananta, director of Central Weather Forecast Division of Thailand's Meteorological Department, said the country could face severe drought in 2015 because of the El Nino weather phenomenon, The Nation reported.

Link 4 - The most-severe drought in 17 years is threatening supplies of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's biggest producers, and forecasters say an El Nino weather pattern this year may cause even more damage.

See the first sentence of my post above being quoted here.

[wilcopops]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

All these are more than 4 months old....

Any more recent ones out there?

As you probably know, things can change in the course of 4 months.

The guy doesn't know how to check his sources either...they're all from the same source.....

Numerous sources based on data collection and experts from numerous countries across the globe. And an El Nino is not a weekend weather pattern. 4-Months ago is when data was released regarding this condition that would have a prolonged effect.

Link 1 - The dry weather has already spread to 38 of 77 provinces since September, Anan Lila, secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics, said in an interview today. The minor rice crop that’s now being harvested may drop 12 percent to 10.74 million metric tons, said Anan.

Link 2 - The world’s major meteorological organizations have issued alerts about the increasing probability of an El Niño event... Historically, Southeast Asian countries see significant climate-related problems with El Niños

Link 3 - Maytee Mahayosananta, director of Central Weather Forecast Division of Thailand's Meteorological Department, said the country could face severe drought in 2015 because of the El Nino weather phenomenon, The Nation reported.

Link 4 - The most-severe drought in 17 years is threatening supplies of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's biggest producers, and forecasters say an El Nino weather pattern this year may cause even more damage.

See the first sentence of my post above being quoted here.

You just don't seem to understand the difference between primary and secondary or tertiary sources...they are all using the same primary source.

[SPB65]

Carry an umbrella just in case.

[JohnThailandJohn]

You just don't seem to understand the difference between primary and secondary or tertiary sources...they are all using the same primary source.

The Primary Source is Science and experts from around the globe as well as past events during similar conditions... duh?!?!? They are all speaking about the effects of an El Nino based on past history and the fact numerous experts from around the globe predicting one.

So numerous experts -- and numerous others sharing their predictions based on past history. Sorry I didn't include any sources using a crystal ball to provide you another source.

Bottom line is you missed the point from the get-go of the post and what it was replying to. Either that or are purposely creating a strawman argument.

[Robby nz]

The guy doesn't know how to check his sources either...they're all from the same source.....

All these are more than 4 months old....

Any more recent ones out there?

As you probably know, things can change in the course of 4 months.

Numerous sources based on data collection and experts from numerous countries across the globe. And an El Nino is not a weekend weather pattern. 4-Months ago is when data was released regarding this condition that would have a prolonged effect.

Link 1 - The dry weather has already spread to 38 of 77 provinces since September, Anan Lila, secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics, said in an interview today. The minor rice crop that’s now being harvested may drop 12 percent to 10.74 million metric tons, said Anan.

Link 2 - The world’s major meteorological organizations have issued alerts about the increasing probability of an El Niño event... Historically, Southeast Asian countries see significant climate-related problems with El Niños

Link 3 - Maytee Mahayosananta, director of Central Weather Forecast Division of Thailand's Meteorological Department, said the country could face severe drought in 2015 because of the El Nino weather phenomenon, The Nation reported.

Link 4 - The most-severe drought in 17 years is threatening supplies of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's biggest producers, and forecasters say an El Nino weather pattern this year may cause even more damage.

See the first sentence of my post above being quoted here.

You just don't seem to understand the difference between primary and secondary or tertiary sources...they are all using the same primary source.

The importance of El Nino or the Southern Oscillation as it is sometimes known cant be overemphasized.

That weather scientists the word over use it as a base for research is completely reasonable and correct.

If you really want to know why, google it and see just what it is and what it does to world weather.

[Robby nz]

Way too much water was released from the dams prior to the rainy season in an effort to prevent floods. El Nino will add to the problem but poor planning is the main reason behind the expected drought.

There was not a lot of water released into the CP river before the rainy season this year or indeed right up to about 2 months ago for the river was at its lowest I have ever seen it in the years I have been living here. The Klongs were also in some cases completely dry with only a small quantity of water released into them from time to time to feed the rice irrigation.

This year it only got up to 8m at the highest and now is down to just over 5 M again and falling.

The problem is that the rain has fallen in the wrong places to fill the dams which must release water as they are not only there to manage water but to generate power.

The flooding in Chaing Mai this year was caused by the large release of water from the Chinese dam on the Meakong following heavy rain in China, nothing Thailand can do about that as the Chinese don't listen to anyone.

[phosphorescent]

Way too much water was released from the dams prior to the rainy season in an effort to prevent floods. El Nino will add to the problem but poor planning is the main reason behind the expected drought.

There was not a lot of water released into the CP river before the rainy season this year or indeed right up to about 2 months ago for the river was at its lowest I have ever seen it in the years I have been living here. The Klongs were also in some cases completely dry with only a small quantity of water released into them from time to time to feed the rice irrigation.

This year it only got up to 8m at the highest and now is down to just over 5 M again and falling.

The problem is that the rain has fallen in the wrong places to fill the dams which must release water as they are not only there to manage water but to generate power.

The flooding in Chaing Mai this year was caused by the large release of water from the Chinese dam on the Meakong following heavy rain in China, nothing Thailand can do about that as the Chinese don't listen to anyone.

The extra water which was released from dams was widely reported as a 'flood prevention measure' at the end of last year's rainy season.

The director of Sirikit Dam has already admitted it is a contributing factor to the drought.

"Mr Suthep blamed the low volumn of water stored in the dam this year to the government’s flood prevention measure which required the Sirikit dam to release water in the dam to just 50 percent of its full capacity so that they would be more room to contain more water from anticipated more rainfalls."

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/sirikit-dam-may-enough-water-last-summer/

Edited September 25, 2014 by phosphorescent