Rumors: The Weapons Of Mass Destabilization

[Jai Dee]

Rumors: the weapons of mass destabilization

Cabinet ministers are resigning en masse. The military is preparing for a coup. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra wants a bloodbath.

Conspiracy theories of all shapes and sizes are floating around among the political and intellectual classes these days. And while the country will find out soon enough what is true and what is false, the constant flow of rumors acts as a means to destabilize the caretaker government.

“This is a war of rumors,” said a long-time government adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity. “People are trying to create an atmosphere of uncertainty so they can find a reason to march. They are trying to wish Thaksin out, or embarrass him out… but it’s beyond the point of embarrassment. There is no rationality left.”

Thaksin’s opponents are keenly aware that once the process for a new election gets underway, the prime minister will be on solid ground. His ruling Thai Rak Thai party has handily won the past three national elections and looks set to carry at least 15 million votes in the next election.

The next month will prove crucial in that regard. On August 15, Thaksin will present the revised election decree to His Majesty the King. If the King endorses the decree, as many expect, then the election will go forward on October 15 as planned.

To survive the next month, Thaksin must fend off a number of challenges. First and foremost, he must work to keep his current caretaker Cabinet intact.

The latest rumors making the rounds are that somewhere between five and seven Cabinet members planned to resign after discussing the political situation on Sunday. Chief among them were Suranand Vejjajiva, Somkid Jatusripitak and Surakiart Sathirathai – though he subsequently denied attending.

After the reports surfaced yesterday, Thaksin called an unscheduled afternoon meeting with most of his Cabinet to discuss the political crisis. The 12 ministers who attended, which included Suranand and Somkid, all said they would not resign and pledged to work hard before the next election, said Veera Musikapong, a Thai Rak Thai party executive.

Any Cabinet resignations would affect the caretaker government politically more than legally.

The resignations of both Somkid, who has journeyed to Geneva and the US in the past month, and Surakiart, whose candidacy for UN secretary-general has been much publicized, would cause a stir abroad and a hailstorm of renewed calls for Thaksin to step aside at home.

Another event that would raise the ire of the media is a guilty verdict next week in the Criminal Court case against the election commissioners, which accuses the embattled trio – Wasana Permlarp, Prinya Nakchudtree and Virachai Naewboonnien – of malfeasance in executing the nullified April 2 election.

The three could appeal the verdict and keep their jobs in the meantime, but a guilty verdict would serve as fodder to those who have called on the commissioners to resign. The final word would be given by the Supreme Court – the same judges who stepped outside of their jurisdiction in May to tell the EC to step aside.

A guilty verdict would push the election date back to 2007. If the commissioners survive and the King endorses the amended election decree – but then the Constitutional Court decides sometime in September to dissolve both Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats – the October election could proceed with just Chat Thai, Mahachon and minor parties contesting.

That seems unlikely, but the number of scenarios that could unfold at this point are staggering. One thing that seems evident through the events of the past few weeks is that People’s Alliance for Democracy leader Sondhi Limthongkul has become more brazen in his efforts to see Thaksin “Get out!”

In last week’s installment of his Thailand This Week talk show, he claimed that “Thaksin does not care whether the situation turns bloody or not.”

He also prominently displayed The King Never Smiles, a book written by a former Bangkok-based journalist that counters popular perceptions of HM the King as being above politics, on the Manager web site, which receives more than one million hits a day.

The story has largely been ignored by many media outlets who fear lèse-majesté lawsuits, but Thai Rak Thai members saw Sondhi’s move as a clear attempt to incite the public. While Sondhi has alleged that Thaksin wants a bloody crackdown of protestors, government sources counter that violence would only allow the military an excuse to move in and oust Thaksin’s caretaker government.

As the next month marches on, political observers will be hoping for a peaceful resolution. That may be the best outcome at this point, given that the lines between fact and fiction – and right and wrong – have grown increasingly blurry.

“A lot of people are saying it looks like bloodshed,” said Prudhisan Jumbala, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.

“The actors seem intent on pushing ahead even if they don’t know if they’ll win, but the biggest risk is to the country itself. And after it’s all over, we won’t be any better off than we are now.”

Source: ThaiDay - 19 July 2006

[Siripon]

I was startled to hear Sonthi talk about the banned book,' The King Never Smiles' last Friday at Lumpini Park. He alleged the author was helped by Pansak, a member of Thaksin's inner circle, with the intention of discrediting the monarchy, serious accusations indeed.

Pansak is certainly left wing and it's doubtful the author, I think he's American, could have written it on his own.

Some Thai journalists feel betrayed by the author as they talked to him on what they thought was an off- the- record basis.

Once again Sonthi is bringing the monarchy into the fray but if his allegations are proved to be true it might be best if TRT are dissolved!

[aaaaaa]

it looks like Sonthi uses similar dirty technics as some in recent World cup! but then after all politics are usually always dirty business.

yeah, it'd be interesting to see what'll happen if TRT realy dissolved ! I bet that even if Democrats are not - they still will fail to win the elections. but the big chance is that they'll be dissolved too. scenario will be more interesting then.

it seems some are getting ready :

Key ministers have exit plan

'Prominent people' have told Somkid, others, to ditch Thaksin, but they say they have to wait for right time: sources

Key Cabinet members of the caretaker government are waiting for the right time to jump ship or revamp the Thai Rak Thai Party, if leader Thaksin Shinawatra loses his grip....

Political sources said key members of the ruling party have been thinking hard about their political futures, as the party is not open to a successor to Thaksin.

But if Thaksin is no longer marketable, it is only a question of time before they isolate him, move on with their political careers or take over the party.

and here Thaksin is being humble :

"I do not cling to the premiership," he said. "But if I were to resign, democracy might collapse in my hand. If [people] want to reform the Constitution, they have to do it properly, through the Parliamentary system," he added.

[Scott]

It just keeps getting gooder and gooder!

[Jai Dee]

It just keeps getting gooder and gooder!

"betterer and betterer"?

[salween]

It just keeps getting gooder and gooder!

"betterer and betterer"?

Well, on the other hand we have, "worser and worser".

I think the most pertinent part of the story was:

“The actors seem intent on pushing ahead even if they don’t know if they’ll win, but the biggest risk is to the country itself. And after it’s all over, we won’t be any better off than we are now.”

Regardless of what happens with the parties, the election commission, etc., will the chairs on the deck be any different--cept for some new shades of greed?

It’s what happens in the fields and and factories around them that will signal real change. And while Sondhi is trying to push the “Peoples” moniker, there's not much there there. So I wonder who’s going to be on the street to be bloodied? Did not Sondhi cancel his rally, not because of the king, but what the appearance of a small crowd my do to his power. That book demotion stunt has been available to him for awhile, but now he decided to pull the trigger. Has it gained him much? Certainly the social atmosphere by the continued prevalence of yellow shirts should help, but how committed is his “base” really?

The plot improves for sure, but the end result...

[Plus]

I think we will see people on the streets again when time comes. Sondhi's own crowd has never been really big but when others join, for the cause, than it really roars. Now it's not the time yet - the matter is in the courts.

People demanded justice, if we see justice served, then there will be less intense shades of greed in the next government. Everyone wins.

[jdinasia]

Agreed Plus ...

People just can't seem to see the simple facts in the story ....

I kinda wish I were still up in BKK for this interesting time ... but getting a feeling for how people in this small mostly muslim village think is really just as interesting!

There is kind of a beauty in seeing a country really do some work and soul searching for a path into the future ... and seeing it done without violent upheaval!

Watching the news out of the Mid-east it would be nice to see the same growth of democracy .. and rejecting the old-guard and bringing in the new.

Edited July 21, 2006 by jdinasia

[salween]

I’ve sure have wanted to believe this, but the amount of situational definitions of democracy, role of the monarchy, etc. I’ve seen many people adopt to fit their view of what’s going on has diminished my hopes for much change—not to mention Sondhi’s motives? However, the soul searching part I whole heartedly agree with, and may too often discount when watching the details unfold. A lot’s being learned for sure, and in the end will help down the road. That part I do enjoy very much—gooder and gooder!