Would Ebola Make You Leave Chiang Mai

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

I'd hunker down, thanks to my upbringing there will always be enough food in the pantry and freezer to ride out most things, water can be boiled if necessary. Probably safer than travelling.

And for all those talking about masks, I have some very bad news - there's not a mask in the world that can help save you from Ebola, it's transferred by body fluid (including sweat).

That's a little bit dramatic

It's transferred thru mucus membranes and compromised skin.

Wearing a mask and perhaps googles and latex gloves would lower the risk quite a bit.

Not sure at that point if it would be lower than a plane crash or hijacking but it would be quite low probability.

"Ebola then spreads through human-to-human transmission via direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids."

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

If you watch the BBC program you will see that one man contracted it from touching the bed frame of a bed where an infected patient was. He survived.

"infected patient" probably liquifying and leaving fluids to make contact with.

Seriously I don't think that is likely at the airport or on the plane.

Latex gloves are not expensive either.

[Konini]

I'd hunker down, thanks to my upbringing there will always be enough food in the pantry and freezer to ride out most things, water can be boiled if necessary. Probably safer than travelling.

And for all those talking about masks, I have some very bad news - there's not a mask in the world that can help save you from Ebola, it's transferred by body fluid (including sweat).

That's a little bit dramatic

It's transferred thru mucus membranes and compromised skin.

Wearing a mask and perhaps googles and latex gloves would lower the risk quite a bit

Not dramatic at all. I was merely pointing out that unlike most pandemics that we have been threatened with recently, this one is not airborne. It's a touchy virus, not a floaty one. It's transferred via body fluids, which travel through membranes and skin. Sweat is one of those things that all victims will produce when at the fever stage.

World reaction to this has, in my humble opinion, been appallingly slow. The affected countries should have been isolated from the rest of the world last month when it became apparent that it wasn't going to be contained at village or town level.

[northernjohn]

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The rats are always the first to leave a sinking ship.

That is a historical fact.

Never I would leave any place because of it ... It's not like we are talking about millions of people infected or died already - we are still in the single digit thousands- WORLWIDE

True I have nothing against precautions but when you look at all the uproar about it and realize there is 7 billion people in the world it kind of trivializes it. As uptheos said where would you go any way.

Don't go to the United States they have over 360 million people and two of them have it.

As for screening maybe if they look sick when they land but there is a good chance that it hasn't progressed that far to begin with. I don't have any idea of what airline precautions are but I wonder if they would let some one on who looked sick with out some kind of papers proving he doesn't have it and he needs to go some place for treatment. Or what ever. I just don't think they would allow them on the plane.

If I thought it was a real problem here I would just get me a pair of latex gloves and be careful of what I touch.

Does any one know how long the virus can live out side the human body?

[uptheos]

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The rats are always the first to leave a sinking ship.

That is a historical fact.

Never I would leave any place because of it ... It's not like we are talking about millions of people infected or died already - we are still in the single digit thousands- WORLWIDE

True I have nothing against precautions but when you look at all the uproar about it and realize there is 7 billion people in the world it kind of trivializes it. As uptheos said where would you go any way.

Don't go to the United States they have over 360 million people and two of them have it.

As for screening maybe if they look sick when they land but there is a good chance that it hasn't progressed that far to begin with. I don't have any idea of what airline precautions are but I wonder if they would let some one on who looked sick with out some kind of papers proving he doesn't have it and he needs to go some place for treatment. Or what ever. I just don't think they would allow them on the plane.

If I thought it was a real problem here I would just get me a pair of latex gloves and be careful of what I touch.

Does any one know how long the virus can live out side the human body?

How long does Ebola live outside the body?

Ebola is killed with hospital-grade disinfectants (such as household bleach). Ebola on dried on surfaces such as doorknobs and counter tops can survive for several hours; however, virus in body fluids (such as blood) can survive up to several days at room temperature.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/qas.html

[Mitker]

Never I would leave any place because of it ... It's not like we are talking about millions of people infected or died already - we are still in the single digit thousands- WORLWIDE

True I have nothing against precautions but when you look at all the uproar about it and realize there is 7 billion people in the world it kind of trivializes it. As uptheos said where would you go any way.

Don't go to the United States they have over 360 million people and two of them have it.

(...)

You are right. But in case of an epidemic outbreak, the relevant figure is where we may likely head to, rather than where we are now.

Reminds us of the wheat on chessboard squares legend

(once again, we imagine here a case of uncontainable outbreak in Thailand)

[chiang mai]

And lives up to two months in semen.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

[uptheos]

so uptheos where would you go if there is a confirmed case here?

In all likelihood, Ebola would have spread to most bigger cities in Europe and Asia already if it has arrived in Chiang Mai.

So my view is that you should look at Ebola similar as when SARS happened or H1N1 was a risk and take similar precautions:

Avoid densely populated areas, use NS95 face mask when you go to populated areas like a market etc. Don't send your kids to school, use common sense hygiene etc.

Travelling somewhere on airplane, congested airports etc, going to a city that is more densely populated than Chiang Mai etc would be probably the wrong reaction from my point of view.

Yellowknife?

TBH I'm not really sure where I would go or if I would go at all, I'm not sure I have the energy.

By the time I made a decision, the choices would probably be limited anyway and who knows if it would even be possible to travel. I feel that I could make some kind of decision, even flee to the hills where I have contacts, but I really wonder what families settled here would do? I do think that IF Ebola were to show up here, it would spread quite quickly and I'm not convinced we would get the full picture.

I don't think it's possible to say what each person would/could or should do.

[chiang mai]

It's all well and good to isolate yourself in your condo but what about your partner, would they be willing to do the same thing and would they be as careful as you or I might be, I somehow doubt it. And if things were to get really bad, food supplies/deliveries would be at risk, at some point we need to go out and buy supplies of food and water and that is an unavoidable contact risk.

Essential hospital and doctor visits, gulp, and then of course, 90 day reports and visa extension, why do I think those things will still be required!

From what I've read it seems that a pandemic involving a virus such as ebola would run for years rather than months, that's a long time to remained couped up in a condo. It seems to me that the risks cannot be eliminated but they can be reduced slightly, whether or not that results in such a reduced quality of life as to make it worthwhile, I'm unsure. Like they say, you pays your money and you takes your chances.

On a brighter note, share value in sites such as TVF will likely soar as people search out entertainment and stimulation that doesn't involve people, you thought you were addicted now, just wait!

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

There would be a lot of other plusses

Customs people would not be very nosey about your baggage

Roads would have far less traffic

Many businesses would offer discounts for brave customers

Wednesday night Ebola pizza special etc etc

I am just going to see what N. John concludes and do the exact opposite

I would have to agree with other posters that this virus is pretty darn scary

I think one would want to be in a place with competetent government that has adequate resources.

[chiang mai]

"I am just going to see what N. John concludes and do the exact opposite"

[Ulysses G.]

[tango]

I would go to a place a less populated and dry like my home in the California desert.

The Issues Thailand has are many. High population density, primitive sanitation, ineffective government and it's somewhat inflexible minded inhabitants.

My worst fear would be for a country like Korea or Taiwan not allowing connecting flights from Thailand.

RE: I would go to a place a less populated and dry like my home in the California desert.

You may well have a point regarding dryness and deserts, and less populated.

I was thinking that is probably why ebola has not gained a foothold in Syria or the ISIS dunes. Having worked in Africa, I am aware of mostly water-borne diseases and malaria, having suffered three bouts of malaria over the years there with the UN: despite the heat I never ever went swimming. Even to this day I stay well clear of swimming pools and swimming holes.

My biggest worry here are the degraded state of air-conditioning filters in hotels and probably planes, buses and trains. These harbour a great many disgusting bacteria, and may well prove a spawning ground for ebola given the variety of travellers / passengers.

Staying put as much as one can, purchasing masks and stocking up on food, water, filters and 3M-n95 filter masks starting now are probably wise precautions. A full-body condom may also help, sorta...

[GOLDBUGGY]

Probably the best place to catch this Ebola here is on the airplane, on the way out.

[SNGLIFE]

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I believe that in a few days or perhaps weeks - Thailand will ban entry of all people from the West African Ebola stricken countries and issue orders to cease granting entry visas to same.

Plus I expect Thai Immigration to speed up their program of finding reasons to expel all Africans from Thailand ... for other reasons.

I hope no one takes this wrong as I'm certain anyone who knows me would never say I'm prejudiced, but on a recent trip to Bangkok I was amazed at the amount of criminal/hustler types in action I saw from some of the West African countries. Tightening up or restricting visas may serve more than one purpose...

Russians/Eastern Europeans are far more active in criminal/hustler activities. Fact.

Edited October 13, 2014 by SNGLIFE

[Thaijack2014]

I would not leave Thailand. But I would avoid traveling and places where many people come together. I avoid physical contact with people as much as possible.

Well, in fact, just live like I already lived before...

But I used to work as an airhost for a big airline and was working in the time of the Birdflu, the outbreak of HIV and all these apocalyptic diseases.... Once we had to leave Thailand in sort of a hurry, because on my flight there was a guy who had some symptoms of a birdflu... (he just has astma, but at that time nobody knew)...otherwise we would have to stay for two weeks in quarantaine... We knew there was no way to be infected, even if he had the flu...

In general, I still would worry more about getting hit by a car then catch ebola..

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Way I was looking at it was this

The origin of the ebola virus is thought to be Guéckédou Guinea which is 10 degrees latitude

Zoom in on that location in Guinea with google earth and you would swear it looks just like Chiang Mai. Same type of rivers, agriculture etc.

Liberia which seems to be a hot bed of infection is 7 degrees latitude

Chiang Mai is 18 degrees

Southern Thailand is 7 degrees

Thailand climate and ecology are fairly similar and one would think a easier place for the virus to survive and thrive

I am definitely no expert however so don't read a lot into it

Edited October 13, 2014 by Rimmer
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[Friendly Stranger]

BKK. Especially soi 5 suk would be the hot spot in the country. Unsure about the African pop in CM.

[uptheos]

I would not leave Thailand. But I would avoid traveling and places where many people come together. I avoid physical contact with people as much as possible.

Well, in fact, just live like I already lived before...

But I used to work as an airhost for a big airline and was working in the time of the Birdflu, the outbreak of HIV and all these apocalyptic diseases.... Once we had to leave Thailand in sort of a hurry, because on my flight there was a guy who had some symptoms of a birdflu... (he just has astma, but at that time nobody knew)...otherwise we would have to stay for two weeks in quarantaine... We knew there was no way to be infected, even if he had the flu...

In general, I still would worry more about getting hit by a car then catch ebola..

That's what I would say...................right now.

[Konini]

As for screening maybe if they look sick when they land but there is a good chance that it hasn't progressed that far to begin with. I don't have any idea of what airline precautions are but I wonder if they would let some one on who looked sick with out some kind of papers proving he doesn't have it and he needs to go some place for treatment. Or what ever. I just don't think they would allow them on the plane.

If I thought it was a real problem here I would just get me a pair of latex gloves and be careful of what I touch.

So they get sick after they arrive; quite healthily incubating the virus as the hours and days pass. That really isn't what would pose the biggest risk though. The thing to be mindful of is the panic.

Billy Ordinary goes to an airport, he's infectious (he has an embarrassing condition, shall we call it a social disease for politeness) and a fever (he has the 'flu). He also has a hacking cough (he's going to give up smoking one day). He also has the runs, really shouldn't have eaten that dodgy looking pork kebab. He's quite ill, poor thing, so many things all at once. But the one thing he doesn't have is ebola. Would he be allowed to fly? I doubt it very much because he is showing symptoms of a fever, and a cough, and he can't seem to stay off the toilet, and well, that just has to be ebola, doesn't it? Joe public is not going to be very happy about Billy being on the same flight as his little darling. In fact, Joe doesn't want Billy in the same postcode as his little darling. In fact, Joe wants to find his pitch fork and run these unclean people out of town.

Human nature. It is what it is.

[Konini]

Russians/Eastern Europeans are far more active in criminal/hustler activities. Fact.

Source?

[uptheos]

As for screening maybe if they look sick when they land but there is a good chance that it hasn't progressed that far to begin with. I don't have any idea of what airline precautions are but I wonder if they would let some one on who looked sick with out some kind of papers proving he doesn't have it and he needs to go some place for treatment. Or what ever. I just don't think they would allow them on the plane.

If I thought it was a real problem here I would just get me a pair of latex gloves and be careful of what I touch.

So they get sick after they arrive; quite healthily incubating the virus as the hours and days pass. That really isn't what would pose the biggest risk though. The thing to be mindful of is the panic.

Billy Ordinary goes to an airport, he's infectious (he has an embarrassing condition, shall we call it a social disease for politeness) and a fever (he has the 'flu). He also has a hacking cough (he's going to give up smoking one day). He also has the runs, really shouldn't have eaten that dodgy looking pork kebab. He's quite ill, poor thing, so many things all at once. But the one thing he doesn't have is ebola. Would he be allowed to fly? I doubt it very much because he is showing symptoms of a fever, and a cough, and he can't seem to stay off the toilet, and well, that just has to be ebola, doesn't it? Joe public is not going to be very happy about Billy being on the same flight as his little darling. In fact, Joe doesn't want Billy in the same postcode as his little darling. In fact, Joe wants to find his pitch fork and run these unclean people out of town.

Human nature. It is what it is.

Yes I agree with you whole heartedly, I think people underestimate the panic and I'd like to go back to my OP

"Let's assume the carrier had unknown contacts for a while"

How would people feel knowing the carrier had many contacts who are now dispersed in different areas of Chiang Mai?

Edited October 13, 2014 by uptheos

[Konini]

BKK. Especially soi 5 suk would be the hot spot in the country. Unsure about the African pop in CM.

inconsequential.

Aaron the African gave it to Billy the Belgian who gave it to Roger the Russian who gave it to Peter the Pakistani who gave it to Edward the Ecuadorian who gave it to Somchai.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

[elektrified]

Russians/Eastern Europeans are far more active in criminal/hustler activities. Fact.

Source?

Not from what I witnessed in Bangkok. Perhaps in Had Patong, Phuket. Eastern Europeans? Russians yes indeed. Romanians are well known for being involved in ATM/computer related financial scams/crimes all over the world....and they are in Patong... Can't say I've noticed other Eastern European criminals in large numbers in Thailand.

Any way let's get back to Ebola as it's an important topic.

[Jimbolai]

Consider that you may not be able, as in not allowed, to leave. Travelling restrictions will be implemented quickly if Ebola comes around.

Better leave now, while you can.

Edited October 13, 2014 by Jimbolai

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

BKK seems perfect landing place for the virus

High arrivals with important tourism industry.

Many black market goods coming from all over that the Thai economy relies on and would be reluctant to interrupt.

Relatively low standards for visitors entry.

Ideal humidity and dirty water and relatively unsanitary city conditions for the virus to survive longer between transmissions.

A population with ingrained behaviors and resistance to change habits

A Govt that specializes in denial and ineffectiveness

Let's say there are outbreaks in BKK

People in Bangkok with resources think 'Heck let's go visit Chiang Mai" where its safer and wait it out.

If I was a fiction writer it would make an interesting read

[uptheos]

Consider that you may not be able, as in not allowed, to leave. Travelling restrictions will be implemented quickly if Ebola comes around.

Better leave now, while you can.

You actually make an important point.

[Jimbolai]

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BKK. Especially soi 5 suk would be the hot spot in the country. Unsure about the African pop in CM.

inconsequential.

Aaron the African gave it to Billy the Belgian who gave it to Roger the Russian who gave it to Peter the Pakistani who gave it to Edward the Ecuadorian who gave it to Somchai.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Not Somchai, we all know if you accuse a Thai that's a lie.

[Asiantravel]

I would have thought people would be flocking to Chiang Mai , rather than leaving? I would have considered Chantaburi between Rayong and Trat to be a bigger risk because surprisingly, it seems to have a lot of Africans living there who are involved in the gems trading business all zooming about in pairs on motorbikes..

Edited October 13, 2014 by Asiantravel

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^ yeah flocking to Chiang Mai.

Just like during the previous BKK floods

People think of CM as a safe haven

What will these people bringing with them?

[Jimbolai]

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I'd hunker down, thanks to my upbringing there will always be enough food in the pantry and freezer to ride out most things, water can be boiled if necessary. Probably safer than travelling.

And for all those talking about masks, I have some very bad news - there's not a mask in the world that can help save you from Ebola, it's transferred by body fluid (including sweat).

That's a little bit dramatic

It's transferred thru mucus membranes and compromised skin.

Wearing a mask and perhaps googles and latex gloves would lower the risk quite a bit.

Not sure at that point if it would be lower than a plane crash or hijacking but it would be quite low probability.

"Ebola then spreads through human-to-human transmission via direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids."

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

Ebola case #2 in the USA is a nurse and may have contacted the virus while "suited up" caring for the case zero. No broken skin needed. Sweat being present on the effected. Just skin to skin contact and that may be a lie.