New York doctor tests positive for Ebola

[Credo]

I remember there was a ban on people with HIV entering the US (as well as a number of other countries). How well did that work out?

[thailiketoo]

I remember there was a ban on people with HIV entering the US (as well as a number of other countries). How well did that work out?

If the HIV people all came from three countries it might have worked better. You see what I'm saying? HIV was every country all over the world. Ebola is a few countries in one tiny little part of the world. Big difference.

[attrayant]

And a travel ban would cause panic and a mass exodus, after which they'll be in every country in the world.

[Credo]

I remember there was a ban on people with HIV entering the US (as well as a number of other countries). How well did that work out?

If the HIV people all came from three countries it might have worked better. You see what I'm saying? HIV was every country all over the world. Ebola is a few countries in one tiny little part of the world. Big difference.

If only....

It didn't work then and it won't work now.

[JDGRUEN]

And a travel ban would cause panic and a mass exodus, after which they'll be in every country in the world.

Sheer unsupported conjecture ...

[manarak]

Internet users are supposed to be more clever than the average, but that doesn't seem to mean much, judging from several posts.

One thing I notice is that medical personnel is getting infected with Ebola - I suspect the cause for this to be the virus itself, being probably more contagious in certain situations than the textbooks say.

In particular, I guess Ebola is transmitting itself by aerosol, or better said, by droplets, which can float for a short time in the air before depositing, for example when someone sneezes.

Medical personnel is probably not protecting itself adequately against aerosol vector.

There have been a number of posters who have been trying to point this out including myself... and that we are not saying it is 'airborne' ... but rather simply expelled droplets ... at close range.... the reason that a full body covering with plastic hood is the absolute minimum protection ... protection the two nurses did not have. Also I have read that the high number of infections of Ebola Aid Workers is likely do to overwork, hot - sweltering conditions, extreme number of patients, etc... and the Aid Workers make mistakes... evidently Dr. Spencer was among this group of overworked doctors who made mistakes. I can only imagine the difficulty.

World Health Organization - WHO

What we know about transmission of the Ebola virus among humans

...Theoretically, wet and bigger droplets from a heavily infected individual, who has respiratory symptoms caused by other conditions or who vomits violently, could transmit the virus – over a short distance – to another nearby person.

This could happen when virus-laden heavy droplets are directly propelled, by coughing or sneezing (which does not mean airborne transmission) onto the mucus membranes or skin with cuts or abrasions of another person...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/06-october-2014/en/

Full body coverage is not necessary when the skin is intact.

A mask covering the eyes, nose and mouth is sufficient.

[attrayant]

Sheer unsupported conjecture

Yeah, we have absolutely nothing to compare it to.

Similarly, in 1987 the Department of Health and Human Services [...] banned those with [HIV] from entering the United States. When President Obama four years ago formally lifted the ban, which had been selectively and strategically enforced, he explained that its legacy had proved opposite to its stated intention: Instead of halting the spread of HIV, it resulted in fewer people being tested, which helped spread the disease.

Emphasis mine.

Edited October 25, 2014 by attrayant

[bkkcanuck8]

Full body coverage is not necessary when the skin is intact.

A mask covering the eyes, nose and mouth is sufficient.

That assumes that everything goes right but you have the patient bleeding, you have him convulsing, and you have him rocket vomiting...... there is no way that in those conditions that it will keep you safe.

Also after death, when you disconnect the equipment - you could get cast off sprayed from those machines being disconnected.

So, no - partial covering is not a good idea.

It would be the equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with your life....

Edited October 25, 2014 by bkkcanuck8

[JDGRUEN]

When the President won't act it is up to the States. Good thing someone has some sense.

A state travel ban will be as effective as a state gun ban. Travelers will simply arrive in a neighboring state and drive across the line. Like I said earlier - people just aren't thinking this through.

I would imagine that occurs to the other State governors as well. Soon the only place without the protective measures will be Washington DC.

Governors Cuomo and Christie have broken the ice on quarantine. It won't take long for Governors of the states with International Airports to do the same thing... The political ice barriers have been broken.

We will know in a few days. My bet other governors will follow suit.

It will be easily recognized by other state governments that precaution by quarantine is the best answer because the cost of chasing down those exposed as in the case with this Dr. Spencer cannot be controlled. Plus the public fear and turmoil of having Ebola patients wandering around exposing people will make quarantine to be seen as it should have been seen months ago - logical ...

[attrayant]

Policy based on fear and panic. What could possibly go wrong?

[harryfrompattaya]

Are Health Workers and NGO's getting Ebola by eating Bush meat?

[JDGRUEN]

Sheer unsupported conjecture

Yeah, we have absolutely nothing to compare it to.

Similarly, in 1987 the Department of Health and Human Services [...] banned those with [HIV] from entering the United States. When President Obama four years ago formally lifted the ban, which had been selectively and strategically enforced, he explained that its legacy had proved opposite to its stated intention: Instead of halting the spread of HIV, it resulted in fewer people being tested, which helped spread the disease.

Emphasis mine.

It is obvious that HIV/AIDS is not even close to being in the same category as Ebola... HIV/AIDS to spread requires the intention acts of individuals in intimate situations (sex) to spread the disease...

Ebola is much more immediately deadly and requires nothing more but to be sitting beside someone on the subway or in a plane and they vomit on you...entirely possible if numbers of Ebola patients increase.

AIDS was more easily concealed for months totally undetected by coworkers and neighbors and they didn't catch the disease from those infected unless they were involved in sex ... It went very much unnoticed in workplaces... just the length of time for the progression of the AIDS disease makes it a totally different situation than with Ebola when it comes to identifying the people and quarantining them. AIDS came from everywhere ... not just to 3 to 5 West African Countries whose passports will be on the person who is a citizen there... And will be noted in the passport of any other person who has been traveling inside those countries...

Will some be missed in screening under even a quarantine system? Yes - but the numbers will be small and grow smaller... especially if states invoked sanctions for those who attempt evading the checkpoints.

The identifiable source is so radically different with Ebola... the person's passport / visas will show if they have been in the Ebola Hot Spot Countries - easy to identify... Then it is obvious that if the airplane came from one of the infected places then the people have to be checked out closely and likely quarantined ... for a whole 21 days or so - not for life.

Of course a ban on issuing Visas to citizens of Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia would make most quarantining unnecessary - and that fact will be seen -- I predict --- after the November Mid Term Elections in the States...

BAN VISAS NOT FLIGHTS ...QUARANTINES WILL BE FEW ... OCCURRENCE OF EBOLA IN AMERICA WILL BE NEAR ZERO.

The Visa Ban will come relatively soon when the political necessity of avoiding it is no longer needed.

[Chicog]

BAN VISAS NOT FLIGHTS ...QUARANTINES WILL BE FEW ... OCCURRENCE OF EBOLA IN AMERICA WILL BE NEAR ZERO.

The Visa Ban will come relatively soon when the political necessity of avoiding it is no longer needed.

Nope, you still haven't thought it through.

Guinean desperate to get out flies to Tunisia with Ebola.

German tourist to Tunisia gets it from him.

German flies to America on business.

JDGRUEN's Airport gestapo go through German's passport and see he has never been to Ebola country.

In comes German to spread infection.

By the way, the CAPS don't make it any more legitimate, just a little more desperate.

Edited October 25, 2014 by Chicog

[Credo]

Of course HIV and Ebola are difference, the point is that travel bans don't work particularly well.

There are too many variables in play.

[JDGRUEN]

Policy based on fear and panic. What could possibly go wrong?

What causes fear and panic is people running around in public with Ebola - Mr. Duncan going back and forth to the hospital vomiting everywhere, the nurse flying to Cleveland from Dallas, Doctor Spencer in NY going bowling and on the subway... That is what is giving rise to fear and rumors...

A well conducted screening program and quarantine is just the opposite. The citizens have a much greater expectation that the potential Ebola patients will not be on the street until proven they do not have Ebola... That is calming and reassuring - not something that creates fear and drives panic.

[JDGRUEN]

Are Health Workers and NGO's getting Ebola by eating Bush meat?

Bush's fault?

Seriously ... I posted earlier that a WHO report suggests that the Ebola AID Workers in this particular Ebola Epidemic due the large number of Ebola Patients were over worked, working in hot sweltering conditions, and not enough workers has causes some to be careless and not adhere to protocol - fatigue will do that... so far as of August 240 Aid Workers infected 120 dead.. brave souls ...

[thailiketoo]

BAN VISAS NOT FLIGHTS ...QUARANTINES WILL BE FEW ... OCCURRENCE OF EBOLA IN AMERICA WILL BE NEAR ZERO.

The Visa Ban will come relatively soon when the political necessity of avoiding it is no longer needed.

Nope, you still haven't thought it through.

Guinean desperate to get out flies to Tunisia with Ebola.

German tourist to Tunisia gets it from him.

German flies to America on business.

JDGRUEN's Airport gestapo go through German's passport and see he has never been to Ebola country.

In comes German to spread infection.

By the way, the CAPS don't make it any more legitimate, just a little more desperate.

Attempts by African governments to increase medical surveillance at airports haven’t stopped carriers including British Airways Plc and Kenya Airways Ltd. from suspending flights to Ebola-affected nations. Korean Air Lines Co. this month deferred its route to Kenya, three time zones away from the outbreak, because of the risk of the infection spreading there via services from West Africa.

Flight bookings to sub-Saharan Africa may drop as much as 50 percent over the next four months, according to market research company Euromonitor International Plc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-28/country-confusion-keeps-ebola-fearing-tourists-away-from-africa.html

I would think tourism 50% down is a rosy forecast. More like tourism stops in Africa.

[harryfrompattaya]

Are Health Workers and NGO's getting Ebola by eating Bush meat?

Bush's fault?

Seriously ... I posted earlier that a WHO report suggests that the Ebola AID Workers in this particular Ebola Epidemic due the large number of Ebola Patients were over worked, working in hot sweltering conditions, and not enough workers has causes some to be careless and not adhere to protocol - fatigue will do that... so far as of August 240 Aid Workers infected 120 dead.. brave souls ...

I said Bush Meat I guess you have GW on your mind.

Once again Bush Meat Sorry you do not understand.

I heard from friends who live and visit Africa that many Health Worker and NGO's like Bush Meat to much.

[JDGRUEN]

Internet users are supposed to be more clever than the average, but that doesn't seem to mean much, judging from several posts.

One thing I notice is that medical personnel is getting infected with Ebola - I suspect the cause for this to be the virus itself, being probably more contagious in certain situations than the textbooks say.

In particular, I guess Ebola is transmitting itself by aerosol, or better said, by droplets, which can float for a short time in the air before depositing, for example when someone sneezes.

Medical personnel is probably not protecting itself adequately against aerosol vector.

There have been a number of posters who have been trying to point this out including myself... and that we are not saying it is 'airborne' ... but rather simply expelled droplets ... at close range.... the reason that a full body covering with plastic hood is the absolute minimum protection ... protection the two nurses did not have. Also I have read that the high number of infections of Ebola Aid Workers is likely do to overwork, hot - sweltering conditions, extreme number of patients, etc... and the Aid Workers make mistakes... evidently Dr. Spencer was among this group of overworked doctors who made mistakes. I can only imagine the difficulty.

World Health Organization - WHO

What we know about transmission of the Ebola virus among humans

...Theoretically, wet and bigger droplets from a heavily infected individual, who has respiratory symptoms caused by other conditions or who vomits violently, could transmit the virus – over a short distance – to another nearby person.

This could happen when virus-laden heavy droplets are directly propelled, by coughing or sneezing (which does not mean airborne transmission) onto the mucus membranes or skin with cuts or abrasions of another person...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/06-october-2014/en/

Full body coverage is not necessary when the skin is intact.

A mask covering the eyes, nose and mouth is sufficient.

The two nurses in Dallas were as you say ... mask, nose and mouth covered (but not with a full encasing plastic helmet and they had other skin exposed) ... They both got Ebola ... I think in a hospital where a full body coverage - space suit sorta device could have been used - would have been a much better idea... They got Ebola and they were dressed as you suggest. So? What would do ? Personally - I'd be wearing the space suit.

[harryfrompattaya]

To a 3rd grade drop this seems a lot like HIV

Do you remember the beginning it took a long to find out what cause HIV and how to catch it

[JDGRUEN]

Are Health Workers and NGO's getting Ebola by eating Bush meat?

Bush's fault?

Seriously ... I posted earlier that a WHO report suggests that the Ebola AID Workers in this particular Ebola Epidemic due the large number of Ebola Patients were over worked, working in hot sweltering conditions, and not enough workers has causes some to be careless and not adhere to protocol - fatigue will do that... so far as of August 240 Aid Workers infected 120 dead.. brave souls ...

I said Bush Meat I guess you have GW on your mind.

Once again Bush Meat Sorry you do not understand.

I heard from friends who live and visit Africa that many Health Worker and NGO's like Bush Meat to much.

I fully understood what you were saying I know what bush meat is -- very likely the source for cross over from animals to humans.... except you used a capital B... thought you were hiding a little joke in there...

I have read a lot about Ebola... never read any reports of Aid Workers eating bush meat but seems that some would...

I also believe that some of the aid workers might be tempted to have sex with some locals ... not really a good idea..

[Chicog]

Attempts by African governments to increase medical surveillance at airports haven’t stopped carriers including British Airways Plc and Kenya Airways Ltd. from suspending flights to Ebola-affected nations. Korean Air Lines Co. this month deferred its route to Kenya, three time zones away from the outbreak, because of the risk of the infection spreading there via services from West Africa.

Flight bookings to sub-Saharan Africa may drop as much as 50 percent over the next four months, according to market research company Euromonitor International Plc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-28/country-confusion-keeps-ebola-fearing-tourists-away-from-africa.html

I would think tourism 50% down is a rosy forecast. More like tourism stops in Africa.

No-one wants to fly loss-making routes, but this does not reflect government policy. The bean counting dwarf at BA will certainly have done this as a commercial decision.

And ironically, they may make things worse.

Christopher Stokes, director of MSF in Brussels, said: “Airlines have shut down many flights and the unintended consequence has been to slow and hamper the relief effort, paradoxically increasing the risk of this epidemic spreading across countries in west Africa first, then potentially elsewhere. We have to stop Ebola at source and this means we have to be able to go there.”

[JDGRUEN]

@ Thailiketoo...

"Attempts by African governments to increase medical surveillance at airports haven’t stopped carriers including British Airways Plc and Kenya Airways Ltd. from suspending flights to Ebola-affected nations. Korean Air Lines Co. this month deferred its route to Kenya, three time zones away from the outbreak, because of the risk of the infection spreading there via services from West Africa.

Flight bookings to sub-Saharan Africa may drop as much as 50 percent over the next four months, according to market research company Euromonitor International Plc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-28/country-confusion-keeps-ebola-fearing-tourists-away-from-africa.html

I would think tourism 50% down is a rosy forecast. More like tourism stops in Africa.

****************************************************************************************************

I agree with your analysis... But I go further... The tic tic tic of diminished commercial flights to West Africa will become a near complete shutdown... And we will see major Western Countries cutting flights wholesale... America will likely be last - political correctness to the end... BUT COMMON SENSE WILL PREVAIL... after the elections.

What the naysayers do not see is that Aid Efforts will increase, Governments will send more heavy duty solutions ... hospital ships, Economic aid greatly increases, etc... When new Ebola infections become 10,000 a month then double --- sobriety will prevail ...

Edited October 25, 2014 by JDGRUEN

[thailiketoo]

To a 3rd grade drop this seems a lot like HIV

Do you remember the beginning it took a long to find out what cause HIV and how to catch it

No. The first thing they did is close the bath houses in San Francisco. I think they knew something was wrong there.

[Chicog]

Policy based on fear and panic. What could possibly go wrong?

What causes fear and panic is people running around in public with Ebola - Mr. Duncan going back and forth to the hospital vomiting everywhere, the nurse flying to Cleveland from Dallas, Doctor Spencer in NY going bowling and on the subway... That is what is giving rise to fear and rumors...

A well conducted screening program and quarantine is just the opposite. The citizens have a much greater expectation that the potential Ebola patients will not be on the street until proven they do not have Ebola... That is calming and reassuring - not something that creates fear and drives panic.

What causes fear and panic is fearmongering and ignorance - sadly a lot of it by certain sections of the media and the political spectrum.

Edited October 25, 2014 by Chicog

[manarak]

Internet users are supposed to be more clever than the average, but that doesn't seem to mean much, judging from several posts.

One thing I notice is that medical personnel is getting infected with Ebola - I suspect the cause for this to be the virus itself, being probably more contagious in certain situations than the textbooks say.

In particular, I guess Ebola is transmitting itself by aerosol, or better said, by droplets, which can float for a short time in the air before depositing, for example when someone sneezes.

Medical personnel is probably not protecting itself adequately against aerosol vector.

There have been a number of posters who have been trying to point this out including myself... and that we are not saying it is 'airborne' ... but rather simply expelled droplets ... at close range.... the reason that a full body covering with plastic hood is the absolute minimum protection ... protection the two nurses did not have. Also I have read that the high number of infections of Ebola Aid Workers is likely do to overwork, hot - sweltering conditions, extreme number of patients, etc... and the Aid Workers make mistakes... evidently Dr. Spencer was among this group of overworked doctors who made mistakes. I can only imagine the difficulty.

World Health Organization - WHO

What we know about transmission of the Ebola virus among humans

...Theoretically, wet and bigger droplets from a heavily infected individual, who has respiratory symptoms caused by other conditions or who vomits violently, could transmit the virus – over a short distance – to another nearby person.

This could happen when virus-laden heavy droplets are directly propelled, by coughing or sneezing (which does not mean airborne transmission) onto the mucus membranes or skin with cuts or abrasions of another person...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/06-october-2014/en/

Full body coverage is not necessary when the skin is intact.

A mask covering the eyes, nose and mouth is sufficient.

The two nurses in Dallas were as you say ... mask, nose and mouth covered (but not with a full encasing plastic helmet and they had other skin exposed) ... They both got Ebola ... I think in a hospital where a full body coverage - space suit sorta device could have been used - would have been a much better idea... They got Ebola and they were dressed as you suggest. So? What would do ? Personally - I'd be wearing the space suit.

In addition to the mask, procedures have to be followed too ... for example avoiding touching one's face with contaminated fingers.

[JDGRUEN]

@ manarak http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/771013-new-york-doctor-tests-positive-for-ebola/page-4#entry8582607

"In addition to the mask, procedures have to be followed too ... for example avoiding touching one's face with contaminated fingers."

I agree with you ... sterile technique has to be maintained... but a full face transparent bubble mask as I have seen used would alleviate that problem...

I have read that there is a CDC recommendation that attending nurses and doctors should use a buddy system to watch and coach before - during and after. But it was indicated that the Dallas nurses said they were not aware of such a buddy system... and that the CDC training was overall lacking.

I know what it is like to take care of patients in a messy situation. I worked part time in the Intensive Care Burn Ward at Parkland Hospital in Dallas, TX to help pay my way through college. Keeping the ever present slimy foul smelling Pseudomonas bacteria that ate at the burn patients off my work smocks was near impossible. I can't imagine working in similar environment where the infectious agent was deadly ... I can only stand in admiration for people who do that.

Edited October 25, 2014 by JDGRUEN

[Ricardo]

So this doctor went to Europe first on his way to New York ? God knows how many people he could have infected on his way.

Zero. He could have infected zero people along the way.

ZERO.

If you don't understand why, then you haven't been paying attention.

We Limeys have this saying ... "famous last words" !

[thailiketoo]

@ manarak http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/771013-new-york-doctor-tests-positive-for-ebola/page-4#entry8582607

"In addition to the mask, procedures have to be followed too ... for example avoiding touching one's face with contaminated fingers."

I agree with you ... sterile technique has to be maintained... but a full face transparent bubble mask as I have seen used would alleviate that problem...

I have read that there is a CDC recommendation that attending nurses and doctors should use a buddy system to watch and coach before - during and after. But it was indicated that the Dallas nurses said they were not aware of such a buddy system... and that the CDC training was overall lacking.

I know what it is like to take care of patients in a messy situation. I worked part time in the Intensive Care Burn Ward at Parkland Hospital in Dallas, TX to help pay my way through college. Keeping the ever present slimy foul smelling Pseudomonas bacteria that ate at the burn patients off my work smocks was near impossible. I can't imagine working in similar environment where the infectious agent was deadly ... I can only stand in admiration for people who do that.

Like these guys?

[JDGRUEN]

@ manarak http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/771013-new-york-doctor-tests-positive-for-ebola/page-4#entry8582607

"In addition to the mask, procedures have to be followed too ... for example avoiding touching one's face with contaminated fingers."

I agree with you ... sterile technique has to be maintained... but a full face transparent bubble mask as I have seen used would alleviate that problem...

I have read that there is a CDC recommendation that attending nurses and doctors should use a buddy system to watch and coach before - during and after. But it was indicated that the Dallas nurses said they were not aware of such a buddy system... and that the CDC training was overall lacking.

I know what it is like to take care of patients in a messy situation. I worked part time in the Intensive Care Burn Ward at Parkland Hospital in Dallas, TX to help pay my way through college. Keeping the ever present slimy foul smelling Pseudomonas bacteria that ate at the burn patients off my work smocks was near impossible. I can't imagine working in similar environment where the infectious agent was deadly ... I can only stand in admiration for people who do that.

Like these guys?

Good - you found a working video link I could not find yesterday.

Notice - LINK to another TVF Ebola thread....

Possible but not likely Ebola case in Phuket ...

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/768033-ebola-in-thailand-are-you-prepared/page-10#entry8583013