TDRI says Yingluck’s rice pledging scheme causes almost a trillion baht loss

[Thai at Heart]

Meanwhile farmers joining the scheme obtained additional 296 billion baht in direct revenues. But after the combination of both direct and indirect revenues from the scheme, farmers obtained 561 billion baht in revenues.

I fail to see how this constitutes an absolute loss

But farmers who were benefitted from the scheme were mostly rich and medium earning farmers, rather than poor and low income farmers.

And there still this bill to be paid, witch I am pretty sure does not include debts still owed to rice mills and warehouses.

BANGKOK: -- The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives believes it will take about seven years to clear the Bt755 billion in debts related to the previous governments' rice-pledging projects.

According to BAAC managing director Luck Wajananawat, about Bt50 billion of that debt is from the rice-subsidy scheme before 2013. The remaining amount, in excess of Bt700 billion, was piled up by the former Yingluck Shinawatra administration. It will take about seven years to clear the whole debt based on the government's current repayment rate and sale of rice stocks.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/761074-7-years-needed-to-clear-thai-rice-pledging-debts-baac/

None of which is illegal. None.

[tbthailand]

Come on, let's get the audited figures instead of continuous speculation from people like Dr. Nipon or Dr. Warong. what happen to the big hoohah on corruption. Nothing heard so far. Yes there are losses but how much is still as unknown as the little green man in Mars.

TDRI was the original basis of the NACC charges against Yingluck, but the TDRI said the NACC can't use their report as proof.

TDRI had a good point then, as now.

By definition, a subsidy costs money. Rice is not the only subsidy in Thailand costing the government money.

Audited figures would be great. In the current situation, it would not be unreasonable however, to get massaged audited figures.

Let's see how this gets hung around Yingluck's neck.

The defense is wrong again.

The NACC have been investigating this scheme for around 2 years since after the Dems took the evidence they had collected for the 2012 no confidence debate and it has gone from there, as I posted elsewhere :

Posted 2012-11-27 05:30:59

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/600926-rice-deals-with-china-fake-thai-democrats/ NO-CONFIDENCE DEBATE

Rice deals with China fake : opposition Democrats produce evidence of a dummy firm tied to govt figures

BANGKOK: -- The opposition has established a link between the government's rice-pledging scheme and massive money laundering by producing evidence of a dummy company, individuals and old ghosts like President Agri Trading and Siam Indica, which could be found involved in non-existent rice deals.

the defense, as you say, is right again.

Just one source among many.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/758809-tdri-opposes-nacc-using-its-report-as-evidence-in-rice-pledging-case/

[dcutman]

Meanwhile farmers joining the scheme obtained additional 296 billion baht in direct revenues. But after the combination of both direct and indirect revenues from the scheme, farmers obtained 561 billion baht in revenues.

I fail to see how this constitutes an absolute loss

But farmers who were benefitted from the scheme were mostly rich and medium earning farmers, rather than poor and low income farmers.

And there still this bill to be paid, witch I am pretty sure does not include debts still owed to rice mills and warehouses.

BANGKOK: -- The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives believes it will take about seven years to clear the Bt755 billion in debts related to the previous governments' rice-pledging projects.

According to BAAC managing director Luck Wajananawat, about Bt50 billion of that debt is from the rice-subsidy scheme before 2013. The remaining amount, in excess of Bt700 billion, was piled up by the former Yingluck Shinawatra administration. It will take about seven years to clear the whole debt based on the government's current repayment rate and sale of rice stocks.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/761074-7-years-needed-to-clear-thai-rice-pledging-debts-baac/

None of which is illegal. None.

OK.

I thought we were discussing the OP.

TDRI says Yingluck’s rice pledging scheme causes almost a trillion baht loss

[Thai at Heart]

Meanwhile farmers joining the scheme obtained additional 296 billion baht in direct revenues. But after the combination of both direct and indirect revenues from the scheme, farmers obtained 561 billion baht in revenues.

I fail to see how this constitutes an absolute loss

But farmers who were benefitted from the scheme were mostly rich and medium earning farmers, rather than poor and low income farmers.

And there still this bill to be paid, witch I am pretty sure does not include debts still owed to rice mills and warehouses.

BANGKOK: -- The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives believes it will take about seven years to clear the Bt755 billion in debts related to the previous governments' rice-pledging projects.

According to BAAC managing director Luck Wajananawat, about Bt50 billion of that debt is from the rice-subsidy scheme before 2013. The remaining amount, in excess of Bt700 billion, was piled up by the former Yingluck Shinawatra administration. It will take about seven years to clear the whole debt based on the government's current repayment rate and sale of rice stocks.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/761074-7-years-needed-to-clear-thai-rice-pledging-debts-baac/

None of which is illegal. None.

OK.

I thought we were discussing the OP. TDRI says Yinglucks rice pledging scheme causes almost a trillion baht loss

As an economist, I note that they assume not one baht of this money turning in the money supply generated one baht of tax.

The 1tn loss number is in financial terms bogus. The govt borrowed 550bn, and paid if into the economy, then if they assume they may pay for another 10 years to store it, it may reach 1tn.

Please don't bore me with semantics. Until, the Thai govt understands loss on a true sense a debate is pointless.

Economics question? What would the value and damage to the country be if none of the money paid out was spent?

So you see, that money turned several times in the economy, so this nonsense about pure loss in economics means nothing.

[Robby nz]

Come on, let's get the audited figures instead of continuous speculation from people like Dr. Nipon or Dr. Warong. what happen to the big hoohah on corruption. Nothing heard so far. Yes there are losses but how much is still as unknown as the little green man in Mars.

TDRI was the original basis of the NACC charges against Yingluck, but the TDRI said the NACC can't use their report as proof.

TDRI had a good point then, as now.

By definition, a subsidy costs money. Rice is not the only subsidy in Thailand costing the government money.

Audited figures would be great. In the current situation, it would not be unreasonable however, to get massaged audited figures.

Let's see how this gets hung around Yingluck's neck.

The defense is wrong again.

The NACC have been investigating this scheme for around 2 years since after the Dems took the evidence they had collected for the 2012 no confidence debate and it has gone from there, as I posted elsewhere :

Posted 2012-11-27 05:30:59

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/600926-rice-deals-with-china-fake-thai-democrats/ NO-CONFIDENCE DEBATE

Rice deals with China fake : opposition Democrats produce evidence of a dummy firm tied to govt figures

BANGKOK: -- The opposition has established a link between the government's rice-pledging scheme and massive money laundering by producing evidence of a dummy company, individuals and old ghosts like President Agri Trading and Siam Indica, which could be found involved in non-existent rice deals.

the defense, as you say, is right again.

Just one source among many.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/758809-tdri-opposes-nacc-using-its-report-as-evidence-in-rice-pledging-case/

Wrong again

That the NACC has used the TDRI evidence is entirely different from saying they have based their evidence on the TDRI document.

The NACC investigation has been ongoing for almost 2 years well before the TDRI came out with any papers

[dcutman]

Thai at Heart

I will agree some money from this scheme went back into the economy, but probably not as much as you think, as most of it went to rich farmers and large land owners that really didnt need it and most likely didnt spend it back into the economy.

The PTP govt bought 54 mill ton of rice and now only has 18 mill ton left with 14 mill tons in poor quality and the fact still remains the taxpayers are on the hook for Bt700 billion, not Bt550 billion.

Now Mr. economist I sure you would agree this money would have been better well spent if there was a better thought out program put in place, or adjusted to get the money to where it was truly intended.

Not to mention the devastation this scheme has caused the industry as a whole, maybe you could try and put number on how much thats going to cost the farmers and this country over the coming years.

[Thai at Heart]

Thai at Heart

I will agree some money from this scheme went back into the economy, but probably not as much as you think, as most of it went to rich farmers and large land owners that really didnt need it and most likely didnt spend it back into the economy.

The PTP govt bought 54 mill ton of rice and now only has 18 mill ton left with 14 mill tons in poor quality and the fact still remains the taxpayers are on the hook for Bt700 billion, not Bt550 billion.

Now Mr. economist I sure you would agree this money would have been better well spent if there was a better thought out program put in place, or adjusted to get the money to where it was truly intended.

Not to mention the devastation this scheme has caused the industry as a whole, maybe you could try and put number on how much thats going to cost the farmers and this country over the coming years.

There isn't a farming community in the world that can afford to bank an entire yearly revenue. So the vast majority of the money spent, just passed straight into the economy.

Could it have been better spent? Don't know. I have worked in agribusiness in issan for some years and they really need every baht.

The industry isn't devastated. Thailand is back to number 1 exporter and the export company onwers are probably placing orders for the new bentley already.

The taxpayers today are not on some hook. That money has been added to the country debt to be repaid over many years. Believe me, the country will survive this supposedly nuclear debt easily. Cp has probably sold it inter company to china for pig feed.

I don't see anything morally or fiscally wrong with trying to feed the neediest.

Edited November 8, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[dcutman]

Thai at Heart

I will agree some money from this scheme went back into the economy, but probably not as much as you think, as most of it went to rich farmers and large land owners that really didnt need it and most likely didnt spend it back into the economy.

The PTP govt bought 54 mill ton of rice and now only has 18 mill ton left with 14 mill tons in poor quality and the fact still remains the taxpayers are on the hook for Bt700 billion, not Bt550 billion.

Now Mr. economist I sure you would agree this money would have been better well spent if there was a better thought out program put in place, or adjusted to get the money to where it was truly intended.

Not to mention the devastation this scheme has caused the industry as a whole, maybe you could try and put number on how much thats going to cost the farmers and this country over the coming years.

There isn't a farming community in the world that can afford to bank an entire yearly revenue. So the vast majority of the money spent, just passed straight into the economy.

Could it have been better spent? Don't know. I have worked in agribusiness in issan for some years and they really need every baht.

The industry isn't devastated. Thailand is back to number 1 exporter and the export company onwers are probably placing orders for the new bentley already.

The taxpayers today are not on some hook. That money has been added to the country debt to be repaid over many years. Believe me, the country will survive this supposedly nuclear debt easily. Cp has probably sold it inter company to china for pig feed.

I don't see anything morally or fiscally wrong with trying to feed the neediest.

If Bt700+++ billion went back into the economy it sure has not shown it. Last I heard, over the last two years Thailand has been in or skirting recession. Again, if all this money went to the neediest, how do you explain widening of the wealth gap and the household dept expanding at such a rate.

I just dont see any difference in the lifestyle of these 1.7 million poor farmers after they received Bt700+++ billion.

[h90]

Yingluck has to go to jail. Whatever the maximum sentence that can be imposed should be imposed. Her lack of oversight of the rice scheme is mind boggling!

Rich people don't go to jail in Thailand.

[Thai at Heart]

Thai at Heart

I will agree some money from this scheme went back into the economy, but probably not as much as you think, as most of it went to rich farmers and large land owners that really didnt need it and most likely didnt spend it back into the economy.

The PTP govt bought 54 mill ton of rice and now only has 18 mill ton left with 14 mill tons in poor quality and the fact still remains the taxpayers are on the hook for Bt700 billion, not Bt550 billion.

Now Mr. economist I sure you would agree this money would have been better well spent if there was a better thought out program put in place, or adjusted to get the money to where it was truly intended.

Not to mention the devastation this scheme has caused the industry as a whole, maybe you could try and put number on how much thats going to cost the farmers and this country over the coming years.

There isn't a farming community in the world that can afford to bank an entire yearly revenue. So the vast majority of the money spent, just passed straight into the economy.

Could it have been better spent? Don't know. I have worked in agribusiness in issan for some years and they really need every baht.

The industry isn't devastated. Thailand is back to number 1 exporter and the export company onwers are probably placing orders for the new bentley already.

The taxpayers today are not on some hook. That money has been added to the country debt to be repaid over many years. Believe me, the country will survive this supposedly nuclear debt easily. Cp has probably sold it inter company to china for pig feed.

I don't see anything morally or fiscally wrong with trying to feed the neediest.

If Bt700+++ billion went back into the economy it sure has not shown it. Last I heard, over the last two years Thailand has been in or skirting recession. Again, if all this money went to the neediest, how do you explain widening of the wealth gap and the household dept expanding at such a rate.

I just dont see any difference in the lifestyle of these 1.7 million poor farmers after they received Bt700+++ billion.

Well, you reckon it got banked? Its 10bn USD +

Just imagine how bad the rural economy would have been without it. 15 countries in the world spent higher than 19bn+.

So lets not argue if feeding Thailand's rural economy is worthwhile. Have you been to rural isaan?

In between thailand spent marginally less on its armed forces. So, lets debate what Thailand would be better spending its money on, remembering Thailand has 15mn subsistence farmers.

[dcutman]

Thai at Heart

I will agree some money from this scheme went back into the economy, but probably not as much as you think, as most of it went to rich farmers and large land owners that really didnt need it and most likely didnt spend it back into the economy.

The PTP govt bought 54 mill ton of rice and now only has 18 mill ton left with 14 mill tons in poor quality and the fact still remains the taxpayers are on the hook for Bt700 billion, not Bt550 billion.

Now Mr. economist I sure you would agree this money would have been better well spent if there was a better thought out program put in place, or adjusted to get the money to where it was truly intended.

Not to mention the devastation this scheme has caused the industry as a whole, maybe you could try and put number on how much thats going to cost the farmers and this country over the coming years.

There isn't a farming community in the world that can afford to bank an entire yearly revenue. So the vast majority of the money spent, just passed straight into the economy.

Could it have been better spent? Don't know. I have worked in agribusiness in issan for some years and they really need every baht.

The industry isn't devastated. Thailand is back to number 1 exporter and the export company onwers are probably placing orders for the new bentley already.

The taxpayers today are not on some hook. That money has been added to the country debt to be repaid over many years. Believe me, the country will survive this supposedly nuclear debt easily. Cp has probably sold it inter company to china for pig feed.

I don't see anything morally or fiscally wrong with trying to feed the neediest.

If Bt700+++ billion went back into the economy it sure has not shown it. Last I heard, over the last two years Thailand has been in or skirting recession. Again, if all this money went to the neediest, how do you explain widening of the wealth gap and the household dept expanding at such a rate.

I just dont see any difference in the lifestyle of these 1.7 million poor farmers after they received Bt700+++ billion.

Well, you reckon it got banked? Its 10bn USD +

Just imagine how bad the rural economy would have been without it. 15 countries in the world spent higher than 19bn+.

So lets not argue if feeding Thailand's rural economy is worthwhile. Have you been to rural isaan?

In between thailand spent marginally less on its armed forces. So, lets debate what Thailand would be better spending its money on, remembering Thailand has 15mn subsistence farmers.

If the govt would get the money into those poor farmers hands it would be ideal.

But thats not what happened. 1.77 million farmers were signed up for this deal. That would still mean 15 million substance farmers saw no benefit of this Bt700++ billion.

Yes I have been to rural Issan and many other rural communities, before, during and after the PTP govt. They all still look about the same, except the houses they live in look a bit more run down.

However, I have also noticed rich Thais are getting much more richer and its rich population is staying the same or getting smaller.

[AleG]

There isn't a farming community in the world that can afford to bank an entire yearly revenue. So the vast majority of the money spent, just passed straight into the economy.

Could it have been better spent? Don't know. I have worked in agribusiness in issan for some years and they really need every baht.

The industry isn't devastated. Thailand is back to number 1 exporter and the export company onwers are probably placing orders for the new bentley already.

The taxpayers today are not on some hook. That money has been added to the country debt to be repaid over many years. Believe me, the country will survive this supposedly nuclear debt easily. Cp has probably sold it inter company to china for pig feed.

I don't see anything morally or fiscally wrong with trying to feed the neediest.

The money did not just pass into the economy, the money was taken (and will continue to be taken) from the economy to pay for the overpriced rice, the storage and the kickbacks.

The Rice Scheme didn't create wealth, it destroyed it; that some people reaped a benefit doesn't mean that in the final tally the country, as a whole, lost and lost big.

[longway]

Meanwhile farmers joining the scheme obtained additional 296 billion baht in direct revenues. But after the combination of both direct and indirect revenues from the scheme, farmers obtained 561 billion baht in revenues.

I fail to see how this constitutes an absolute loss

But farmers who were benefitted from the scheme were mostly rich and medium earning farmers, rather than poor and low income farmers.

And there still this bill to be paid, witch I am pretty sure does not include debts still owed to rice mills and warehouses.

BANGKOK: -- The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives believes it will take about seven years to clear the Bt755 billion in debts related to the previous governments' rice-pledging projects.

According to BAAC managing director Luck Wajananawat, about Bt50 billion of that debt is from the rice-subsidy scheme before 2013. The remaining amount, in excess of Bt700 billion, was piled up by the former Yingluck Shinawatra administration. It will take about seven years to clear the whole debt based on the government's current repayment rate and sale of rice stocks.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/761074-7-years-needed-to-clear-thai-rice-pledging-debts-baac/

None of which is illegal. None.

OK.

I thought we were discussing the OP. TDRI says Yinglucks rice pledging scheme causes almost a trillion baht loss

As an economist, I note that they assume not one baht of this money turning in the money supply generated one baht of tax.

The 1tn loss number is in financial terms bogus. The govt borrowed 550bn, and paid if into the economy, then if they assume they may pay for another 10 years to store it, it may reach 1tn.

Please don't bore me with semantics. Until, the Thai govt understands loss on a true sense a debate is pointless.

Economics question? What would the value and damage to the country be if none of the money paid out was spent?

So you see, that money turned several times in the economy, so this nonsense about pure loss in economics means nothing.

Yes you are the enlightened one. Thank you for your guidance o buddha. As the forum expert on the economics of the rice scam i an surprised you don't know they did not borrow 550 billion, this was what budgeted for the scam, they then borrowed or transferred from other parts to the economics and infrastructure budget another 300 billion when that money ran out.

The only benefit to society from this scam is the extra money farmers received had the scam not existed. The tdri report partly answers this question, farmers received about 580 billion baht for 54 million tonnes of paddy. Which about is under 11,000 baht per tonne. The market price the time was about 8,000 baht per tonne. So the economic benefit to the supposely targeted group was 162 billion baht over 3 years. This the money that could have been spent to give exactly the same monetary benefit to farmers without the rest of the bloated scam clearly set up to rip off money at every step.

Perhpaps if you try to wave your hands around alot and flop your hair up and down continue talking nonsense you can kid yourself about this crazy scam, but you are not fooling too many orher people.

Edited November 8, 2014 by longway