Thai talk: Will General Prayut keep his road-map deadline?

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THAI TALK
Will General Prayut keep his road-map deadline?
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- A renowned astrologer known for his public support of the military has gone on the record as suggesting that one year might not be sufficient for Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha to put the country back on track.

"I believe he will need about two to three years to complete his mission," Varin Buaviratlert said.

But then, a real insider, Deputy Premier MR Pridiyathorn Devakul, has taken the opposite tack. He has been quoted as saying that the current government can't stay on longer than the one-year limit as stipulated in the roadmap laid down earlier by General Prayut in his capacity as head of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

He says any attempt to stay on for longer than that will only provoke opposition and resistance. Pridiyathorn shot down fears that if an election were held on time, the red shirts would return again. That, he argues, would be up to the people to decide, and the powers-that-be would find it difficult to come up with an acceptable excuse to extend the deadline of the current roadmap.

Does anybody know whether Prayut intends to keep his promise to ensure that elections are held late next year and a popularly elected government is installed a few months after that?

If he is weighing his options, the premier has not told anybody about it. He has complained about the "tough job" he is facing. He has painted a depressing picture of the difficult mission of the National Reform Council "because some people are still trying to protect their own interests". He has also said he doesn't want to stay in power a day longer than is necessary.

But Prayut has also made it known that if the reform process fails to live up to expectations, the country would face the risk of returning to the chaos of the pre-coup days. He has repeatedly talked about a "Thai-style democracy" but he hasn't elaborated on how he defines that term.

Officially, he has no control over how the reform debate will proceed - or whether the diversity of views will end up with any clear-cut conclusions that could lead to a peaceful and constructive transition. Unofficially, though, the premier certainly hopes to be able to influence the process.

But even if he can call the shots on how the new permanent Constitution should be written, there is no guarantee that the new charter will put the country back on a peaceful and stable track.

Once the heated debate on how the Constitution should be drafted begins, Prayut will find it almost impossible to control the course of the discussions.

Nobody is quite sure where the prime minister stands on one of the most controversial issues in the drawing up of the new charter: How restrictive should the provisions against politicians who have been banned by the constitutional court be?

There have been suggestions by certain members of the National Reform Council that those who have been banned from politics for one reason or another should be barred from running for office for the rest of their lives. If that proposal were to pass, the scale will be tipped against politicians associated with former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Should that be the case, the political scene would undoubtedly heat up and the whole "reform" exercise would be seen to be designed to wipe out "the other side" from politics. Prayut has tried very hard to avoid being associated with that move. But then, he has also been critical of "populist policy" that has damaged the country's social infrastructure.

His dilemma is clear. If Prayut wants to show that the seizure of power will "clean up politics", he would have to support a charter that minimises "money politics". But if he pushes too hard in that direction he might be accused of taking sides, and national reconciliation would be out of the question.

The real test will come on November 12 when the National Legislative Assembly takes up the question of whether to impeach former Premier Yingluck Shinawatra.

The fact that House Speaker Pornpetch Vichitcholchai said last week that there were sufficient legal arguments for him to put the motion on the House agenda has injected an atmosphere of confrontation even before the Constitutional Drafting Committee could pick all the 36 members.

Whether he likes it or not, Prayut will have to find a way of defusing that time bomb if he intends to produce a national reconciliation charter. If not, then it's another story. And the question of whether he keeps to his deadline will become highly relevant.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Will-General-Prayut-keep-his-road-map-deadline-30247104.html


-- The Nation 2014-11-06

[Thailand]

There is no way all the old guys who have been put in to new lucrative opportunist positions in the govt and various committees will want to relinquish those positions anytime soon, irrespective of what the current boss may say.

[NongKhaiKid]

The general has said there's nothing wrong with consulting astrologers so now he's been handed the perfect ' it's written in the stars ' justification for staying on.

[JOC]

Will General Prayut keep his road-map deadline?

NO!!

[chainarong]

One couldn't give a toss about the road map, it is what is in the journey ( Content) that matters and from the outside looking in nothing much will change for the ordinary Thai , the ruling elite will tighten up the rules and structure the road map to suit, critical but until they include a few outsiders from the labour pool in designing this road map one can only assume that the GPS map is set for some and not others and the Bentley is in Cruise Control on the motor way.

[The stuttering parrot]

The first threes words were enough for me then I stopped reading.

[Fat Haggis]

What makes me chuckle is that certain posters on TVF ripped into Yingluck/ and the name we dare not speak of, were alleged to have consulted astrologers from Myanmar, they were ridiculed and lambasted!!

But it's quite okay for the current PM to be supersticious and seeks guidance from astrologers??

[NeverSure]

What makes me chuckle is that certain posters on TVF ripped into Yingluck/ and the name we dare not speak of, were alleged to have consulted astrologers from Myanmar, they were ridiculed and lambasted!!

But it's quite okay for the current PM to be supersticious and seeks guidance from astrologers??

Oh good. The old two wrongs make a right idea.

Listen up. Both suck.

[Sarathi]

"Should that be the case, the political scene would undoubtedly heat up and the whole "reform" exercise would be seen to be designed to wipe out "the other side" from politics. Prayut has tried very hard to avoid being associated with that move."

Personally I don't see any way in which Prayut has tried to disassociate himself from a totally one sided stance. His aim (seems to me) is to seize and maintain control of every office, court and seat of power. Which is exactly what we disliked Thaksin for.

No difference. Except that with Thaksin his power ultimately rested with the people - who they vote in, they can vote out. Not so with the Military.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Sarathi

[metisdead]

Just a reminder that posts using derogatory nicknames or intentional misspelling of people’s names will be removed. If you don’t want your post to be removed, spell people’s names correctly.

[h90]

They act so slow at the moment, that they either need more time, or do the job only half.

Better a year or two more than, having the next Thaksin nominee and again corruption, yellow shirt demonstrations, etc etc.

Complete the job no matter if 1 year or 5 years....

[recycled]

I would have thought the answer would be easy, here is a the great decorated warrior and leader who can't even do a simple thing like keeping the price of lottery tickets down.

There are certain words and actions that Thais just can't seem to grasp; like keeping a promise, common sense and speaking the truth. Fools the bloody the lot of them I tell you.

[Orac]

The first threes words were enough for me then I stopped reading.

It is a sorry state of affairs when The Nation is using astrologers for its political analysis.

[nong38]

The original timeframe for the "roadmap" was far too short, it might have been in military terms but in politics the wheels turn much more slowly. He will have a choice to make either stick to his time that he set or see the job through, they will not fit, he looked at the time with military eyes not politicians eyes.

I hope he stays and finishes the job but that will be the difficult decision and how will the general public react to a postponement? How will the Thai wannabee political groups react? The International Community should just observe and let the future unfold for the country.

[rickirs]

Is Suthichai Yoon a new reporter that he can’t do research?

2014-10-15

“The chairman of Thailands (sic) military junta and his deputy have suggested that the date of the next national election may be postponed from October 2015 to early 2016.” (my bold emphasis)

"It depends on when the new constitution and reforms will be finished," Gen. Prayuth told reporters before boarding a plane to an international summit in Italy this morning. "It takes time to prepare for an election. It's not like we can organise an election tomorrow just because we have scheduled the poll. Elections take time."

"It wouldnt be surprising if the [election] took place in 2016," Visanu said. "Because the new permanent constitution will only be ready by September 2015. There will be many laws about the election that need to be passed, too. It may take two months for parliament to approve each law."

Posted in TV 2014-10-15 05:10:32

[RubbaJohnny]

Source errors ,sorcerers,oh what a tangled web we weave when we practice to deceive

[bikerbri]

It will not matter that the general keeps to his time line. The changes needed for Thailand to evolve from a developing country to an accepted member of the developed World will take more than a generation to achieve...............if ever. There needs to be a will to want change. Sadly Thai's prefer the Status Quo.

[Ulic]

I got to "renowned astrologer" and stopped reading.

[tbthailand]

A renowned astrologer known for his public support of the military has gone on the record as suggesting that one year might not be sufficient for Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha to put the country back on track.

it doesn't take a royalist astrologer to figure that one out.

there is no real time table since no one knows how long it will take to take care of the business at hand.