Tiger economy loses its roar as Thailand's exports slump

[webfact]

Tiger Economy Loses Its Roar as Thailand's Exports Slump
By Suttinee Yuvejwattana

BANGKOK: -- Thailand is heading for a second straight year of slumping exports, something the onetime tiger economy hasn’t experienced in at least two decades and a loss that magnifies challenges for the military-run government.

Shipments abroad, which make up the equivalent of about 70 percent of the economy, have shrunk in six out of nine months this year and will probably contract in 2014, according to the central bank. That’s in comparison to an annual average pace of growth of about 13 percent in the period 2002 to 2012.

While Thailand has grappled with political instability and record flooding in recent years, rivals including Vietnam and the Philippines have seen exports climb. Investment proposals for infrastructure have been delayed for months by violent unrest that ended when Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the former military chief, seized power in a May coup.

“It’s possible that exports will lag behind other countries in the region like Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines which used to trail us in the past,” said Santitarn Satirathai, a Singapore-based economist at Credit Suisse Group AG. “We have obsolete technology and other structural problems that we must fix. The question is, can Thailand do enough to keep attracting foreign and domestic investment. It is quite worrisome.”

The economy is forecast to grow this year at the slowest pace since 2011, when thousands of factories were inundated by the worst floods in 70 years. Gross domestic product probably grew 1.0 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey showed ahead of data due today.

Full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-16/tiger-economy-loses-its-roar-as-thailand-s-exports-slump.html

-- Bloomberg 2014-11-17

[Thai at Heart]

And let's tighten the FDI rules.

That will help.....

[draftvader]

Funny that I just read an article on the G20 and when one of the leaders (sorry, been up since 5am and have done the shopping since I read the article!!) mentioned ASEAN countries they mentioned Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

[Prbkk]

Some bad policies, some bad luck but an awful lot of head in the sand crap as well. Thailand is at the crossroads and runs the risk of seeing the rest of ASEAN sail by unless there is root and branch reform

[NeverSure]

No one can tell Thailand what's wrong. It has Thainess and can do no wrong.

It is the hub of hubs and the undisputed leader in SE Asia. Where else could international businesses possibly go?

When Thailand's best friend China gets finished with it, all that will left of Thailand is the feathers.

[Bullie]

Well that's all fine and dandy, but I am still waiting for the baht to go down. Not only should it help exports, but on a more personal level it would please me too!

[NeverSure]

The baht has fallen significantly against the USD this year. Only very low interest rates in the West are holding the baht up at all.

LINK

[Thai at Heart]

The baht has fallen significantly against the USD this year. Only very low interest rates in the West are holding the baht up at all.

Uopy.jpg

LINK

When the baht was 28, they screamed, "if only it would devalue we would sell more".

Yes, let's devalue ourselves to prosperity........

[chainarong]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Funny that I just read an article on the G20 and when one of the leaders (sorry, been up since 5am and have done the shopping since I read the article!!) mentioned ASEAN countries they mentioned Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

I noticed that also

[noitom]

Thais have no sense of global economies. They perceive that life in the world exists as a creature of Thai dreaming and projections. They perceive if they "lure" and promote and promise, that the world will come back. Thais perceive everyone in the world to be the next greater fool falling all over themselves to pay Thais money for goods and sex.

[chainarong]

It is a changing world and one time Thailand was at the forefront in exports back in 1997, it was run virtually by the department heads and the Ministers took advice, their finance area was held in high esteem, since then Thailand has had 2 Coup's, dysfunctional Governments, Lousy administrators, administration short on policy, media stops with quick fix idea's, rampant corruption and nepotism , a Democracy the laughing stock of the world and worst of all a divided nation , it is a wonder that Thailand hasn't slumped to junk status, Thailand needs to reinvent itself come up to speed on the latest international idea's and keep the old brigade and ideologies out. I wont hold my breath.

[daveAustin]

I posit foreign firms would rather do business with others, such as Vietnam, than put up with charades and increasing bs and are thus sourcing consumables/setting up trade elsewhere. Look out, Muang Thai, here comes Vietnam, Fili and Burma!

[konying]

Oh stop all your whining.

Less than 48 hours ago BOT released a statement on how strong Thai economy is.

Less than a week ago, TAT released figures how strong tourism numbers are and growing

Less than a month ago, some development guru, released figures how strong real estate market was and is and growing

Less than 24 hours ago, car industry experts released statements that up coming car show will sell huge number of cars

Have not you all learned by now

Deny Deny Deny

Once all falls apart

Scapegoat, scapegoat, scapegoat and then point fingers ,point fingers, point fingers

[gopis108]

Maybe it is time to reconsider the flesh eating excuses the monks and everyone else trot out.Methinks Lord Buddha may not be too pleased with Thailand.It is not all about who can build the biggest statue of Buddha.It is about who actually follows the rules of Buddhisn-of which first and foremost is AHIMSA-non-violence,(no animal killing), which edict has really been thrown under the carpet.They even go so far as to say that they didnt kill the animal, they only eat its flesh.It is simply baffling that anyone could come up with such a childish excuse for not following the Buddha.Letting someone else do the dirty work is an art perfected here in Thailand,the other one is the chorus's of "well if you dont like it go home" from the peanut galleries whenever anyone is critical of Thailand in any way.(I will also be amazed if the TV censors do not interpret my comment as unacceptable).I am simply amazed that an entire country feels that they have nothing to learn from anyone else,sadly another Of L.Buddhas teachings that has somehow been swept under the carpet-the vow of humility and treating all others with respect, since everyone else is our teacher and the truth must be told..

[johnh869]

Well that's all fine and dandy, but I am still waiting for the baht to go down. Not only should it help exports, but on a more personal level it would please me too!

Amen Brother.....40 Baht to the Buck!!!!!!!!!!

[Pib]

Thailand should be afraid, very afraid, many of the other ASEAN countries will continue to gain a higher share of FDI and exports in ASEAN region. Thailand has too long assumed they will remain a preferred place to do business such as manufacturing in ASEAN. Business preferences change due to many factors such as political stability, ease of doing business, costs, ownership structuring, etc. And some of the recent FDI foreign ownership proposed changes in requiring more Thai majority controll seem to be a negative towards increasing FDI. Will just have to wait and see where all the new interest in Thainess ends up.

[angiolo]

Why is the BAHT so strong..I cant work it out. Can some bright guy tell me WHY

[Pib]

Why is the BAHT so strong..I cant work it out. Can some bright guy tell me WHY

Why are you saying the baht is strong as its been depreciating against some currencies like the USD primarly due to USD strength and not baht weakness. Now if you are talking the baht appearing to be stronger against a currency like the Euro, well, actually the Euro has got weaker due to a slow economy in most of the EU countries. Takes two currency pairs for an exchange rate and the strength or weakness of either one can affect the exchange rate.

[spidermike007]

Just wait until the new ASEAN charter comes into effect in December of next year. There is a real chance of Thailand being left in the dust by some of it's more advanced neighbors like Indonesia, and Malaysia.

[bunuel]

Maybe it is time to reconsider the flesh eating excuses the monks and everyone else trot out.Methinks Lord Buddha may not be too pleased with Thailand.It is not all about who can build the biggest statue of Buddha.It is about who actually follows the rules of Buddhisn-of which first and foremost is AHIMSA-non-violence,(no animal killing), which edict has really been thrown under the carpet.They even go so far as to say that they didnt kill the animal, they only eat its flesh.It is simply baffling that anyone could come up with such a childish excuse for not following the Buddha.Letting someone else do the dirty work is an art perfected here in Thailand,the other one is the chorus's of "well if you dont like it go home" from the peanut galleries whenever anyone is critical of Thailand in any way.(I will also be amazed if the TV censors do not interpret my comment as unacceptable).I am simply amazed that an entire country feels that they have nothing to learn from anyone

else,sadly another Of L.Buddhas teachings that has somehow been swept under the carpet-the vow of humility and treating all others with respect, since everyone else is our teacher and the truth must be told..

Excellent post that goes straight to the heart of the matter. i ,too, have been a practising Buddhist for many years, snd I love Thailand and her people. However, as a long time resident and employer, I reserve the right to offer my opinion when I feel the country is on a dangerous path, and a Laotian Buddhist aphorism applies:

When the water runs high,

the fish eat the ants;

when the water runs low,

the ants eat the fish.

Have s feeling the water is going to be running very low in LOS soon..

[Rosco911]

I posit foreign firms would rather do business with others, such as Vietnam, than put up with charades and increasing bs and are thus sourcing consumables/setting up trade elsewhere. Look out, Muang Thai, here comes Vietnam, Fili and Burma!I opening my business in Thailand in 2006 employing over 40 so called mechanical engineers / welders with so called degree's in thier feild

Dave you could not be more correct. I opened my enginnering business in Thailand in 2006, since then I have watched my investment dwindel every year due to poor skill levels. Most of the time the labour force turned up for work when they felt like it.

Many of our employees were educated to degree level in their field, what a joke that turned out to be. Just to confirm your statement above we closed our factory in June 2014 and relocated in Vietnam.

Suprise suprise the welders can actually weld, the engineers can do the job they are emplyeed to do and the storeman can deduct 10 from 100 giving the answer of 90 without the aid of a calculator.

[luk AJ]

Thailand should be very clear on it's foreign investment policies. BOI promotions are in place and working but the 51/49 rule is killing many oportunities. Some people in this forum refer to Myanmar, Vietnam and Indonesia as the economic havens. Myanmar;much too early. Vietnam? Look at the devaluation of the Dong in recent years and combine this with the administrative nightmare to set up a company there. Agreed, India is even worse. Indonesia, maybe. I continue to bet on Thailand but stability is the key.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[richard10365]

Is this story an opinion? I can't tell because no source given for how they conclude exports are down. However, when I look at the Bank of Thailand's website (Click here), overall export trade volume is generally up. I'm more inclined to believe a story if there is a source to back up the claim.

[noitom]

Japan has fallen in to recession. Thailand hasn't a clue.

[noitom]

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Is this story an opinion? I can't tell because no source given for how they conclude exports are down. However, when I look at the Bank of Thailand's website (Click here), overall export trade volume is generally up. I'm more inclined to believe a story if there is a source to back up the claim.

No story in Thai press is predicated on fact. It's always hearsay, second hand, and someone puffing and blustering out sound bites. Thai journalists never ask questions, never corroborate, never validate, and never investigate. It's the "No-Gate" press if ever there was one.

[rickirs]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Well that's all fine and dandy, but I am still waiting for the baht to go down. Not only should it help exports, but on a more personal level it would please me too!

It continues to weaken: 32.849 (Coinmill.com)

That will favor exports but make imports such as energy, consumables, and products more expensive.

[NeverSure]

Is this story an opinion? I can't tell because no source given for how they conclude exports are down. However, when I look at the Bank of Thailand's website (Click here), overall export trade volume is generally up. I'm more inclined to believe a story if there is a source to back up the claim.

I don't understand what you're saying. According to your link, trade in absolute non-inflation adjusted dollars has been flat since the end of 2011.

Worse, imports almost equal exports barely giving Thailand a positive balance of trade.

I see no growth for almost 3 years. That's the same as going backwards.

[rickirs]

The cost of the coup and anti-government protests to the nation will be about 3.5% of GDP growth or equivalent Bt.50-70 billion through 2015, equalling the total wealth of the Crown. Time does not favor a continued military government from an economic viewpoint.

[Thailand]

Leading the country forward in to 2015, ASEAN and recession!

[richard10365]

Is this story an opinion? I can't tell because no source given for how they conclude exports are down. However, when I look at the Bank of Thailand's website (Click here), overall export trade volume is generally up. I'm more inclined to believe a story if there is a source to back up the claim.

I don't understand what you're saying. According to your link, trade in absolute non-inflation adjusted dollars has been flat since the end of 2011.

Worse, imports almost equal exports barely giving Thailand a positive balance of trade.

I see no growth for almost 3 years. That's the same as going backwards.

Sorry, you're right. I did find a better source which I'll post when I get to my computer.