Thailand: NESDB projects 1 percent GDP growth

[webfact]

NESDB projects 1% GDP growth
By Digital Content



BANGKOK, Nov 17 -- The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) projects that the Thai economy will grow by 1 per cent this year and 3.5-4.5 per cent next year as the government is speeding up its investment, the global price of crude oil is declining, and Thai exports are recovering.

The Thai gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.6% in the third quarter.

NESDB Secretary-General Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said the Thai economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the third quarter and just 0.2 per cent in the first nine months of this year.

The agency's anticipated Thai GDP growth rate is revised downwards from 1.5-2.0 per cent to 1 per cent.

He said that the national economy improved from what it had been in the second quarter as the private sector resumed its investment.

Investment in this sector rose by 3.9 per cent after being in steady decline in the four previous quarters.

Household spending increased by 2.2 per cent compared with 0.2 per cent in the third quarter.

Mr Arkhom said that the Bt40 billion subsidy for rice growers and a subsidy for rubber growers would stimulate the economy late this year.

The anticipated 3.5-4.5 per cent economic growth rate next year is based on Thai exports being likely to improve, along with global economic recovery, tourism promotion campaigns and private investment starting next year for projects that won promotional privileges from the Thai government.

Besides, the global crude price is expected to drop lower than US$80 per barrel.

Other positive factors are government investment projects that will stimulate investment in the private sector and a salary hike for civil servants next April.

The value of Thai exports is predicted to rise by 4.0 per cent, household consumption by 2.6 per cent and overall investment by 5.8 per cent.

Headline inflation will run between 1.4-2.4 per cent and the current account surplus is anticipated at 2.2 per cent. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2014-11-17

[Pib]

Seems like many govt agencies, companies, and psychics have done a lot of "revising down" this year regarding Thai GDP. By 31 Dec their GDP guesses should be pretty accurate for the year.

[clockman]

They use a fortune teller!

[Alwyn]

Didn't I just read an article on TV talking about a huge slump in exports? Did they not consider this in the GDP calculations? Or maybe they'll be importing less to help balance things? What a load of cock.

[worgeordie]

They must just write situations on pieces of paper,put them in a hat

and whatever they pull out,thats what is going to happen.

regards worgeordie

[webfact]

Thailand grows at lacklustre 0.6 percent in Q3
Bangkok, Thailand | AFP |

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's economy grew at a lacklustre 0.6 percent in the third quarter, prompting authorities to again clip the full year growth forecast, in a blow to a junta which has vowed to kick-start the economy following their coup.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha, the former army chief who led the May coup, has pinned the junta's legitimacy to injecting zip into Thailand's once dynamic economy after months of political protests froze government spending, scared off tourists and battered consumer spending.

But so far there have been few signs of economic revival, despite a pledge to increase government spending and push through much-needed infrastructure projects.

Between July and September the economy expanded 0.6 percent compared to the previous year, the National Economic and Social Development Board reported.

It grew 1.1 percent on a quarter-by-quarter basis, the board said, adding Thailand's economy achieved a weak 0.2 percent growth across the first nine months of the year.

"The Thai economy in 2014 is expected to grow by 1.0 percent," NESDB added, trimming its growth outlook from 1.5-2.0 percent.

But the board said Southeast Asia's second largest economy should rebound next year to grow at 3.5-4.5 percent on improving exports, internal investment and a recovery of Thailand's key tourism sector, which has been pummelled in recent months.

Tourists have shied away from Thailand, where martial law has been in place since the coup, which followed months of sometimes violent anti-government protests.

The murder of two British holidaymakers on a resort island in September also caused concern.

The Immigration Bureau said there had been a near nine percent drop in tourist arrivals between January and October, compared to the same period in 2013.

But "the calmer political climate and the government's tourism promotion campaign should help to revive tourist arrival growth in the upcoming high season," according to Krystal Tan of Capital Economics.

An uptick in the US economy should also stimulate Thai exports, she added.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-11-17

[khwaibah]

Japan just went in the shyster, BK Post front page. Your next Thailand.

Edited November 17, 2014 by khwaibah

[rickirs]

“The agency's anticipated Thai [2014] GDP growth rate is revised downwards from 1.5-2.0 per cent to 1 per cent.”

2014-07-05:

In his weekly Friday night TV program “Return Happiness to the People”, Gen Prayuth vowed to strive for a GDP growth of 2% or higher against the central bank’s target of 1.5%.

FAILURE

“The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) projects that the Thai economy will grow by 1 per cent this year and 3.5-4.5 per cent next year.”

2014-10-17:

“The private think tank [university of Thai Chamber of Commerce] also estimated that economy for next year would grow by about 4-5 percent …”

“World Bank economist, Miss Kirida Paopichit has also forecast that the country’s GDP for next year would grow about 3.5 percent, though the figure would also rely on the global economy.”

2014-11-11:

“… the survey [by Dhurakij Pundit University of SME’s] respondents believed GDP would grow by 3.28% in 2015.

FAILURE IN PROGESS?

[NeverSure]

Why do governments think they are the answer to anything to do with the economy? Why do they believe in stimulus?

Every government is a net consumer of wealth. The private sector creates that wealth which then gets taxed away for government waste.

The more governments try to stimulate, the deeper they go into debt - debt which must be repaid by a highly taxed private sector.

The more the private sector is taxed, the more the private sector suffers economically.

Government is the problem, not the solution.