One ingredient still missing in Prayut's recipe for peace in South

[Lite Beer]

One ingredient still missing in Prayut's recipe for peace in South
Don Pathan
Special to The Nation

Black smoke billows amid a scene of devastation after a bombing in Yala.

BANGKOK: -- Without recognition of the insurgents' BRN political wing, the PM's effort to kick-start talks could be doomed from the start

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is expected to introduce General Aksara Kerdphol, the new chief negotiator for the peace talks with separatist groups in Thailand's deep South, during his visit to Malaysia on Monday.

Malaysia was designated as facilitator for the peace talks launched by the previous government of Yingluck Shinawatra, and Bangkok is expected to request that Kuala Lumpur continue in the role.

The visit could be a bit awkward for Prayut given the fact that the Royal Thai Army was never on board the Yingluck peace initiative. The Army reluctantly played along, all the while looking for ways to covertly sabotage the process. One way was to permit the return of former Bersatu leader Wan Kadir Che Man, to criticise Malaysia and other international mediators working on the conflict.

General Aksara is chairman of the Army's advisory panel and a former Army chief-of-staff. Under the Yingluck government, the job of chief negotiator was given to the National Security Council secretary-general, Paradon Patanatabut. The main driver behind the team back then was Police Colonel Thawee Sodsong, then secretary-general of the Southern Border Province Administration Centre. The two men enjoyed a close working relationship with Yingluck's brother, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. That explains why they were sidelined after the coup in May.

Now that the Army is in the driving seat, the government in Bangkok is thinking hard about how to move the peace initiative forward. It is generally agreed that the talks should be as inclusive as possible. The Thai military is confident that many longstanding separatist groups will send their people to the talks. But the participation of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) - the group with the highest number of insurgent combatants - is still uncertain.

The Thai side is also toying with the idea of "back-channel" meetings with each of these groups in a bid to get a better understanding of their capacity and capability. The one-on-one discussions would centre on militant operations and rules of engagement, while the political issues would be kept separate as part of the official "Track I" process.

A source from the BRN said that while his group is sitting out of the Track I process, his leaders had not ruled out the idea of joining the back-channel talks.

But the BRN is concerned with a more immediate goal, which is to strengthen the group's political wing so it can engage the international community and the public on its own terms, rather than be dictated to by Malaysia or Thailand.

Yet without formal recognition from the state actors, the so-called political wing will remain just another criminal element in the eyes of Bangkok.

Talking to separatist groups is nothing new for the Thai authorities. But Yingluck was the first to make it official and thus give the general public hope that peace was within sight.

According to BRN sources, Yingluck's team made a mistake in thinking they could launch a process, place someone with little influence over the insurgents in the person of Hasan Taib at its centre, and that would be enough to generate success.

Hasan didn't have the mandate of the BRN leadership or the support of the insurgent cells, which explains why the insurgents continue to attack the Thai security forces unabated.

Unfortunately, the announcement by the Thai military government that it is restarting peace talks has generated little excitement among the general public. But that's not such a bad thing, said a senior military officer, because the government doesn't want to mislead the public or encourage unrealistic expectations, which was the case when Paradon and Thawee were overseeing the process.

The absence of public fanfare hasn't stopped foreign mediators from looking for a seat at the latest round of peace talks if and when it gets under way.

One group has approached former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda, while another group, with the help of former Thai foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai, has been talking with Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla. Surakiart recently stated publicly that Indonesia should be one of the mediators, along with Malaysia, in the deep South peace process.

Surakiart may have been trying to promote inclusiveness. But if the past 10 years of peace efforts tell us anything it is that the business of mediation is extremely territorial.

Some of the longstanding separatist movements are also making their moves. A photo of a Japanese representative with the late Patani Malay academic Ahmed Somboon Bualuang, meeting with Patani Malay exiled representatives over coffee in Europe, has been doing the rounds on social media and raising eyebrows among observers and other stakeholders.

After all, appearances in public made by potential players are often engineered with some degree of calculation. There are no paparazzi in this game, just self-promoting videos and selfies.

Recent months have also seen the emergence of Wae Hamad Wae Yusuf, the head of the Patani Malay Consultative Congress, the onetime legislative branch of the now-defunct Bersatu separatist umbrella organisation. He announced the independence of Patani, the Malay historical homeland that encompasses the three Malay-speaking provinces in Thailand's far South.

"Pak Hamad was just testing the water," said a senior Thai military officer, who advised against public reaction to the announcement.

Thailand's idea of inclusiveness would be a wise one if all the players agreed to play ball. But this is the deep South, a landscape of fractured insurgency where nothing comes easy. BRN sources say the longstanding insurgent groups can play all the angles they want, but at the end of the day, without the participation of the BRN, the game won't change.

The ball is in Thailand's court, they say, because it is up to Bangkok to make the talks "work" by recognising the legitimacy of the BRN's political wing. And that means formal recognition from not just the Thais but also the international community.

Today, being a member of the BRN organisation can put a person behind bars. Well-known youth activist Muhamadanwan "Anwar" Hayith is a case in point. The predicament of Anwar illustrates the fact that Thai-BRN relations still have a long way to go before mutual respect can be established.

Don Pathan is a member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com) and a freelance development and security consultant based in Yala.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/One-ingredient-still-missing-in-Prayuts-recipe-for-30248767.html

-- The Nation 2014-11-29

[The stuttering parrot]

So the army covertly went about destroying the Yingluck governments peace process and now the head that army at the time now wants to run the show.

Giving the headlines this bloke has amassed over the last couple of weeks he couldn't run a choko vine over country dunny!

[ramrod711]

His record looks pretty good compared to Yinglucks though. By the way, is she still stalling, evading and pretending that she hasn't had enough time to defend the indefensible? I can't think of anyplace else she needs to visit while her lawyers add a document every two weeks.

Edited November 29, 2014 by ramrod711

[chainarong]

Three decades to my knowledge of a total <deleted!> up as far as Thailand's Administration efforts to bring about a solutionin the South , there will never be any peace, this last decade has been fraught with more and more advanced terrorist activities in destruction of lives and collateral , General Prayuth has no chance in even scoring a try let alone winning this match, the possibility of peace recipe lies outside the scope of what Thailand can cook up.

[Commerce]

There's a hell of one more ingredient missing... a few trained chefs can avoid an omelette..

[metisdead]

A way off topic post has been removed, this is not about the rice scheme or rice farmer suicides. This is about the recipe for peace in the south of Thailand.

[FangFerang]

Any way I look at it, saying the PM has his hands full is an understatement. If he was Siva and had six arms, he would still have his hands full. I think maybe things can get better, but that is a big maybe. I do not want the Thai people to fail or be treated like cattle or be misinformed or be harmed.

Maybe things can get better.

[Mudcrab]

So the army covertly went about destroying the Yingluck governments peace process and now the head that army at the time now wants to run the show.

Giving the headlines this bloke has amassed over the last couple of weeks he couldn't run a choko vine over country dunny!

[Thaiready]

As long as Islam is involved. ....there will be NO peace.

[Travelman868]

When will people understand that Islamist's are not separatists. They may say they are but it is patently untrue.

If they were given the 5 states with no strings attached, the killing would continue because Thailand is Buddhist.

These Muslims require everyone to convert to Islam and if they will not, then according to there version of Islam

it is ok to kill them.

Look at the horrendous crimes they have committed in recent times, women stoned to death because they let

a man rape them, a 14 year old boy killed in front of his family because he asked "freedom fighters" to pay for

coffee. The 9 year old innocent boy brutally beheaded for no reason other than being there.

There are thousands of similar cases all over the world.

We cannot make peace with these people. The only reason there are so many in the world is because people

are threatened with death if they do not convert.

Muslims say Islam is peaceful ok I'm prepared to believe that when they answer one question.

How many times have Islamist's been turned in to the Authorities by Muslim's???? 2 or 3 times or more, probably NONE

and that's not just in Thailand that's in the world.

The army should learn the lesson :- You cannot negotiate with Islam. The Qur-an says they can lie when it is advantageous to Islam.

Clear the land on the Malaysian border 1 mile wide strip. Protected no mans land.

[Travelman868]

Three decades to my knowledge of a total <deleted!> up as far as Thailand's Administration efforts to bring about a solutionin the South , there will never be any peace, this last decade has been fraught with more and more advanced terrorist activities in destruction of lives and collateral , General Prayuth has no chance in even scoring a try let alone winning this match, the possibility of peace recipe lies outside the scope of what Thailand can cook up.

Of course you are correct. It's interesting reading the posts and the number of people avoiding using the words Islam and Muslim.

These Islamist's do not care about anyone, even fellow Muslims who if killed will go directly to Allah. How unset they will be when

they find it's all wrong.

Lets suppose we all believe in God and JC had direct connections, unlike this guy who met another guy in cave.

JC preached love and tolerance etc. 6 Hundred years later we are suppose to believe that same God changed His mind and

told the caveman hate and murder were fine. Don't make sense.

[bangrak]

Pfff, here they are again with the "pops' army" Thaksin had waken up from the grave (probably with some hidden, dark, evil agenda the Shins are famous for, but we have heard nothing about, yet) when, as a fugitive criminal(!) he has with some shady official mandate(!!) been 'brokering' for 'Poo's' 'governnment' in Malaysia...

The action cells are led by guys of max 40 old or younger, the 'actions' perpetrated by very young men, mostly teenagers in the recent Islamic terrorist 'warfare', some elderly being used as a reference, an inspiration, no more, period. Islamic terrorism has know a, fast, evolution in that direction, this is not just a hunch, I've been involved in that stuff, mind you, at the other side, after 'black september' rose up against the occidental world's values (whatever that might mean, in hindsight...).

I'd agree BRN could, eventually, provide 'a key' to open, just some, a few, 'doors' to the active terrorists' (in Thai language: 'insurgents'') cells, but in their old, relegated, 'leaders'' 'logic', they'll negotiate it 'as if'(!) they were still the masters of the game, what they are no more, and for long, making it much too long and difficult for what it's worth. IMO, the Thai negotiators, via Army intell, and Malays (not -sians) should rather try to get in contact with one, a few, of the 'war heroes' for the youg fighters, to talk with, in Malaysia f.i., guys who are 'successfull' in combat with their men, who have 'credentials', the trust of the 'fighters'!

A hint for the Thai authorities: manage the Malaysian Federal Government with diplomacy (not the Thai way!), but walk another street, get in touch with the Malays, with the Sultans whose State(!) borders with Thailand, like for instance the one from a Sultanate with a name starting with a 'P' (like in Perlis, but not that one), even when he might hate your guts(?) and have different plans(?), I'm quite sure he, and the, few, Sultans interested, and involved(...?), in Thailand know a lot more than the 'apparatchiks' from KL will ever know, or admit to..., and please, approach these 'tribal leaders' with the same respect you would give to a King, as you would with the Sultan of Brunei, for instance.

In the end, who is the clever man who has achieved the most for his people? The one who lost, with pride? Or the one who won, with modesty?

Edited November 29, 2014 by bangrak

[bangrak]

Three decades to my knowledge of a total <deleted!> up as far as Thailand's Administration efforts to bring about a solutionin the South , there will never be any peace, this last decade has been fraught with more and more advanced terrorist activities in destruction of lives and collateral , General Prayuth has no chance in even scoring a try let alone winning this match, the possibility of peace recipe lies outside the scope of what Thailand can cook up.

Of course you are correct. It's interesting reading the posts and the number of people avoiding using the words Islam and Muslim.

These Islamist's do not care about anyone, even fellow Muslims who if killed will go directly to Allah. How unset they will be when

they find it's all wrong.

Lets suppose we all believe in God and JC had direct connections, unlike this guy who met another guy in cave.

JC preached love and tolerance etc. 6 Hundred years later we are suppose to believe that same God changed His mind and

told the caveman hate and murder were fine. Don't make sense.

Allow me please to contradict you. ALL monotheist religions (Buddhism is not a religion, no matter what some Generals might say about it) have been affirming and extending their power(!) through violence and bloodshed, no exception, whether Aton ('inspired' by Akhnaton, the pharao considered as a 'renegade' just after his death, who, on himself(?), started the whole monotheist shebang, his, the 'Jewish' and all what followed), Yaveh, 'JC' as you say, and Allah! Except the fact that the World has immensely evoluated since then, there's not much to oppose Muslims saying: 'look at what the Christians did six centuries ago', considering the time their, and your(?) religion were started up... Look at the believers in Yaveh, the God of thorn, they have been at war with their own kins, the neighbours, and the rest of the World for thousands of years, and still are doing the same today. Look at what the Christians (I was educated as and bare the name of,, although part Jewish...) have been doing in the World, how many millions have they murdered, because of not even being considered human beings, of becoming Christians in their death and other crazy things, killing their own folks for not being in line with the tormented minds of the leaders of the time, you name it. The Muslims are cut from the same wood, not Catholics, Orthodox, Cathars or Reformed, but Sunni and Shia, and others, as they had started murdering one another out quite early in the belief's existence... They don't show more or less disregard, contempt, to the 'others' than any before, it's just that in the general perception of the whole World, except them, slitting troaths, severing heads, using children with explosives on their body, and other horrors, are no more from this time. I agree with you this wild fire must be stopped, at any cost. But who will tell the 'Yaveh people' they should stop, at any cost, because, unfortunately, the present problem with Muslims, what has put the fire in the pan, again, can be summarized in one, single, word: Palestina!

[rickirs]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

When will people understand that Islamist's are not separatists. They may say they are but it is patently untrue.

If they were given the 5 states with no strings attached, the killing would continue because Thailand is Buddhist.

These Muslims require everyone to convert to Islam and if they will not, then according to there version of Islam

it is ok to kill them.

Look at the horrendous crimes they have committed in recent times, women stoned to death because they let

a man rape them, a 14 year old boy killed in front of his family because he asked "freedom fighters" to pay for

coffee. The 9 year old innocent boy brutally beheaded for no reason other than being there.

There are thousands of similar cases all over the world.

We cannot make peace with these people. The only reason there are so many in the world is because people

are threatened with death if they do not convert.

Muslims say Islam is peaceful ok I'm prepared to believe that when they answer one question.

How many times have Islamist's been turned in to the Authorities by Muslim's???? 2 or 3 times or more, probably NONE

and that's not just in Thailand that's in the world.

The army should learn the lesson :- You cannot negotiate with Islam. The Qur-an says they can lie when it is advantageous to Islam.

Clear the land on the Malaysian border 1 mile wide strip. Protected no mans land.

Sorry but Gen. Prayuth already was ahead of you. He had proposed a 600-mile wall between Malaysia and Thailand to stop insurgents coming over the border. The Yingluck administration didn't take his idea seriously but did thank him for the thought.

[rickirs]

"... the government doesn't want to mislead the public or encourage unrealistic expectations ..."

Here is a missing ingredient: Reality

There must be a willingness to give up Thai sovereignty over the South. Allow the South to hold a binding Scottish-style referendum to decide its own destiny: Remain part of the Kingdom of Thailand, have independent jurisdiction through Special Autonomy (ie., Phillipines, Crimea, The Vatican), or join Malaysia.

In getting the insurgents for the first time to peace talks, the Yingluck regime did so by keeping the military OUT of the process. That included ISOLATING the ineffective NSC Chief Thawil Pliensri by attempting to transfer him. The rest is history with regard's to Yingluck's understimate of the military's need to exercise its power.

Gen. Prayuth has stated that Thai sovereignty is not negotiable to any peace talks. Thai Muslims in the South must in effect subjugate themselves to a Buddhist Head of State, support through their taxation the acceptance and support of Buddhism within State functions, and prostrate themselves to the Kingdom's Royal military and police forces. Gen. Prayuth promised a solution by end of 2014, now by the end of 2015 - but still with the regurgitation of the military's same Stratego policies to set unacceptable preconditions for talks: trust the Thai military.

[tomross46]

Three decades to my knowledge of a total <deleted!> up as far as Thailand's Administration efforts to bring about a solutionin the South , there will never be any peace, this last decade has been fraught with more and more advanced terrorist activities in destruction of lives and collateral , General Prayuth has no chance in even scoring a try let alone winning this match, the possibility of peace recipe lies outside the scope of what Thailand can cook up.

The unrest in the south has been going on for over a century. see attached

http://historyshortnotes.blogspot.com/2013/11/unrest-and-conflict-in-southern-thailand.html