Why bad news for the ruble could spell disaster for the dollar

[zydeco]

Let's keep in mind that the entire Chinese economy is so opaque that nobody knows what is going on. They could be bankrupt right now, and it would take a decade for anybody to figure it out.

[craigt3365]

A few off topic posts have been removed from view.

[Publicus]

Lets keep in mind that China financial own's the USA

The USGovernment has kept the CCP Boyz in Beijing and their state corporations out of the US and out of critical industries, such as energy, communications, technology (defense in particular). The claim is false.

Beijing's total FDI in the US is $74 billion while US FDI in the PRChina is almost $400 bn.

There is an increase this year of Beijing's FDI into the US but it is by privately owned corporations in the PRC, and this is because the US government has severely restricted state owned firms from investing in the US for the obvious reasons that the SOEs respond to state CCP policies and priorities, not to the market. .

This year Russia has spent $95 billion unsuccessfully defending the ruble, almost all of it since November 1st. Bloomberg's survey of economists says Russia will have to spend another $70 billion supporting the unsustainable ruble. Which brings us to the matter of Russia's rapidly dwindling forex reserves .......

Putin’s Secret Gamble on Reserves Backfires Into Currency Crisis

Kremlin insiders gathered in secret last February to answer a crucial question for Vladimir Putin: Could Russia afford the economic blowback from taking over Crimea?

Moscow said yes.

That conclusion now looks like a grave mistake.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/putin-s-secret-gamble-bet-on-ukraine-backfires-in-ruble-crisis.html

[F430murci]

Very interesting article:

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30539355

The Kremlin has known, ever since the oil boom took off 10 years ago, that a political system was being built on the basis of the one thing in Russia that Vladimir Putin could not control - the price of oil. The Kremlin's own accounts estimate that sales of oil and gas accounted for 50% of Russia's federal budget revenue in 2013. And ominously, roughly half the Russian population lives off the state budget - either as state employees, pensioners or as benefit claimants.

That is an interesting article. I doubt there is a US/Saudi conspiracy, but if there was one, it's rather ingenious. It may solve a "Putin problem" that no amount of diplomacy ever could.

Here is an interesting fact support for such a notion. Oil price is dropping and everyone is blaming over supply and decreased demand. That should lead to at least a short term decline in production by the US (Saudivis still profitable at $ 59). This past week when everyone anticipated US would decrease production, U S increased production.

Not really difficult to see, I said this would happen in Mayish in the exact manner that it happened. My belief it would happen back them came from just about everyone in the banking/financial industry I knew. They were perhaps given lead time to cover.

Edited December 19, 2014 by F430murci

[mania]

I know China has been mentioned but I did not see anyone mention the recent

news with Turkey

How Vladimir Putin Upset NATO’s Strategy

Also as I had mentioned before ...yes Russia will suffer most initially

in all of this but this low oil is not sustainable & suffering while most may now be in Russia

others will feel it too...inevitably

Russia Is Europe’s Gas Station

Sure someone? could step in & take up the slack but who? At what price?

[F430murci]

This is the same idiot that wrote "American is Stretched to Breaking Point, Watch the Markets."

He says US GDP of 17 tr + EU GDP of 18 tr equals 30 tr. Huh??? 17 + 18 = 30. He cannot even add and we are supposed to take him seriously on financial matters.

"He says US GDP of 17 tr + EU GDP of 18 tr equals 30 tr. Huh??? 17 + 18 = 30. He cannot even add."

If this is how this so called reporter reports the news how can anyone beleive him?????????

Well before you write him off as an idiot could be he is quoting two countries GDP & likely currencies yes?

To get one answer he would need to convert one

Seems he converted it all to Euro's in which case 30 is roughly (31.6 @ today rates) correct

Then again he did use a $ sign which would be incorrect but hey.... That is what proof readers are for.

Convert what? The EU GDP is approaching $18 tr in US dollars and US GDP is 17 in US dollars. China GDP is around $ 9.3.

Okay, lets look at another interesting, but laughable economic indicator he used to try and make a point. He uses purchasing power parity to try and argue China's economy surpassed US's economy without once acknowledging that in terms of nominal GDP, the real measure, China remains about 55% of US.

In terms of GDP, China should have a stronger GDP with that many people. China's GDP per capita is pituful. Isn't it something like 80th?

This guy either has an agenda or is simple clueless about global economic issues.

----------

The central utility of PPP is that, unlike conventional GDP, it accounts for national differences in the cost of living. For example, men can obtain similar haircuts in both China and the United States; but in China, where labor and rent are lower, haircuts cost much less than they do in the U.S.. Put another way, a man in China can obtain more haircuts with $30 than he could in the U.S. The PPP takes that differential into account and thus tends to present developing countries like China as having more wealth than normal GDP indicates.

However, PPP is less useful when measuring goods and services, like air-craft carriers or international shipping rates, that cannot be adjusted for cost of living. For a broader look at an economy's health, nominal GDP -- which represents the sum total of goods and services produced in a country -- is more useful. By this measurement, the U.S. continues to hold a significant advantage: In 2013 the U.S. GDP was $16.72 trillion, whereas China's GDP equaled a mere $9.33 trillion. Considering that China has used its growing wealth to, among other things, greatly improve its military capacity, conventional GDP remains significant.

http://m.ibtimes.com/china-economy-surpasses-us-purchasing-power-americans-dont-need-worry-1701804

According the IMF, the purchasing power parity measure is a type of cross-country comparison that looks beyond the nominal value of money and focuses more on what you can actually get for it. So for example, if a hamburger is sold in London for £2 and in New York for $4, it would suggest a PPP exchange rate of one pound to two U.S. dollars.

. . .

By looking at a PPP comparison, particularly for developing nations, "you really exaggerate the importance of these economies," said Hensley. The PPP comparison, he explained, misses the command that each economy has over the world's resources as well as its influence on global activity.

http://m.christianpost.com/news/china-is-now-the-worlds-largest-economy-based-on-purchasing-power-parity-says-the-imf--127827/

Edited December 19, 2014 by F430murci

[ChoakMyDee]

America can make it's own "wodka", thank you very much.

And caviar? While American caviar from Shovelnose sturgeon is not as good as the Russian version, it's a hell of a lot more affordable.

What's left that Russia has that we need? Hackers? Blonde prostitutes? Check. Check.

Russia could disappear from the planet tomorrow and few Americans would even notice, 555.

Russia has cheap labour. An exploration company I used to contract for in Houston got rid of all their US and Canadian contractors and hired Russians at half the cost.

[Lodestone]

Let's keep in mind that the entire Chinese economy is so opaque that nobody knows what is going on. They could be bankrupt right now, and it would take a decade for anybody to figure it out.

Indeed.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773?tesla=y

[Publicus]

The global right are now trying to spin the disaster that is Russia as somehow being harmful and detrimental to the Nato countries and to Europe, the United States in particular.

It's just more of the same-o and same-o talk of destroying the petrodollar, meaning the USDollar, meaning the United States itself, to throw in Europe to boot which presumably would become Putin's satellite states.

The right sector of politics and societies across the globe are trying to make the countries that have the initiative, i.e., the Nato allies, look like they are being destroyed by Putin, the Brics to include the CCP Boyz of the PRChina, and of course by we ourselves.

No one ever accused the right sector country by country across the globe of being in contact with reality. Putin meanwhile looks all the more a chest pounder than a chessmaster.

[NeverSure]

@Neversure: I think you should look at the bigger picture in the US. The shale oil boom was one of the drivers of the US economy, especially when it comes to employment of low skilled workers. Have a look a the state of texas for example. If many of the shale oil companies go out of business and also the correlating supply chain companies, it will hurt this sector of the US economy quite badly. Agree on the opposite side there will be consumers that have more money because gas is cheaper, but there will be less jobs as well. So this isn't just about rich investors that get hurt, it will hurt many employees as well who may loose their job.

Now with regards to Saudi Arabia, believe me they don't need 100$ oil to survive. Their break even costs are very very low, they can make substantial profits at 40$ oil because of their low costs. Now obviously revenues will go down but they still can produce, they can even increase production to increase revenues. Whereas at current level of oil prices, shale oil producers loose money and if those low prices will stay, they will go out of business.

Similar situation in Russia, their costs to produce oil and gas are very low, they get hurt because revenues for the governments go down considerably, but they still get revenues. When it comes to Russia, you should worry more about corporate debt in US$. Many corporates in Russia are highly leveraged in foreign currency. So the risk might be that the government may have to bail out some corporates or even banks and so people should be worried about the contagion risk related to that rather than the reduction of revenue for the government from lower oil prices.

You have a lot of thoughts in there, but you miss the main point.

Somehow you aren't seeing the difference between an oil company going broke and a government going broke.

Putin is in danger of going broke and soon, because the engine of government is oil. Now with the Ruble fallen by about 1/2 he's double whammied.

The things you mention in the US are indeed negatives, but they are a tiny fraction of the US government's operation. The US has a lot broader economic engine than just oil but Russia doesn't.

Oil is a bonus for the US and a necessity for Russia and Saudi.

[zydeco]

Let's keep in mind that the entire Chinese economy is so opaque that nobody knows what is going on. They could be bankrupt right now, and it would take a decade for anybody to figure it out.

Indeed.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-jinpings-troubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773?tesla=y

That is an eye opener. Everything I expected is going on and a lot more.

[Scott]

Off-topic post removed. The topic is primarily about the Ruble.

[monkeycountry]

America can make it's own "wodka", thank you very much.

And caviar? While American caviar from Shovelnose sturgeon is not as good as the Russian version, it's a hell of a lot more affordable.

What's left that Russia has that we need? Hackers? Blonde prostitutes? Check. Check.

Russia could disappear from the planet tomorrow and few Americans would even notice, 555.

Right.

But a lot of Europeans might feel the heat. Eg. >30% of Germany's gas consumption is imported from Russia. Same holds true for a lot of the Oil refineries - and nowadays those are fine tuned to a certain crude oil composition, so a change of supply is difficult.

Similar, as Europe was severely affected by the US mortgage crisis and Lehman Brothers collapse, a crisis in Europe would most likely affect the USA.

As with all business, upsetting your customers in any way, means you will lose them. Russia can double the price of gas, stop the supply or similar, which will damage their customers short term. However, they know that as soon as they do that, their customers, such as germany, will initiate the construction of an alternative to russian gas. Currently such a plan may not be financially viable, but if the price of gas doubles or the supply stops, then the customers have no choice but to find an alternative.

Russia of course know that they can hurt their customers short term, and make lots of money short term, but that doing so means they are guaranteed to lose those customers long term, as once their customers start the construction of an alternative, there will be no going back. Not because of revenge or anger, but simply because the construction of power plants and networks constitutes a major part of the price of energy.

Edited December 20, 2014 by monkeycountry

[mania]

As with all business, upsetting your customers in any way, means you will lose them. Russia can double the price of gas, stop the supply or similar, which will damage their customers short term. However, they know that as soon as they do that, their customers, such as germany, will initiate the construction of an alternative to russian gas. Currently such a plan may not be financially viable, but if the price of gas doubles or the supply stops, then the customers have no choice but to find an alternative.

Russia of course know that they can hurt their customers short term, and make lots of money short term, but that doing so means they are guaranteed to lose those customers long term, as once their customers start the construction of an alternative, there will be no going back. Not because of revenge or anger, but simply because the construction of power plants and networks constitutes a major part of the price of energy.

Somewhat true of most things....oil/gas is not one of them

How many decades have many countries all said we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil?

If there was a way it would have been long underway by now.

Alternative suppliers of the same are not automatically available at any price.

In fact what is limited becomes ever more expensive as it becomes more precious

So any alternative that already exists has its hands full with its current customers in this sector.

Yes as you say construction of power plants is a possibility...But will they run on alternative fuels?

If not back to step one & why they are customers in the first place.

Edited December 20, 2014 by mania

[Chao Lao Beach]

Who owns the USD ?

[ABCer]

Not being a specialist in international economics cannot argue with most posts made above. However the OP statement (quote):

" In short, the US and the European Union are too strong for Russia to resist - financially, economically and militarily."

has not been fully discussed.

Painting Russia in a corner financially and economically leaves the "military" aspect outside of the discussion focus.

Any ideas from this angle? Without a common and often displayed attitude like they are weak, they are going to fall apart after one push, etc.

Seriously... ?

[mania]

Not being a specialist in international economics cannot argue with most posts made above. However the OP statement (quote):

" In short, the US and the European Union are too strong for Russia to resist - financially, economically and militarily."

has not been fully discussed.

Painting Russia in a corner financially and economically leaves the "military" aspect outside of the discussion focus.

Any ideas from this angle? Without a common and often displayed attitude like they are weak, they are going to fall apart after one push, etc.

Seriously... ?

I just read this piece...

Parts about Russia start about 2/3 down the article

It is too risky for the US to take on Russia militarily.

Instead, Washington is using its unique symbiotic relationship with Western

financial institutions to attack an incautious Russia that foolishly opened herself to Western financial predation.

Edited December 20, 2014 by mania

[Asiantravel]

Not being a specialist in international economics cannot argue with most posts made above. However the OP statement (quote):

" In short, the US and the European Union are too strong for Russia to resist - financially, economically and militarily."

has not been fully discussed.

Painting Russia in a corner financially and economically leaves the "military" aspect outside of the discussion focus.

Any ideas from this angle? Without a common and often displayed attitude like they are weak, they are going to fall apart after one push, etc.

Seriously... ?

China earlier warned an attack on Iran would start World War 3 .

Why does anyone think for 1 min that China would not equally support such a close partner as Russia?

Edited December 20, 2014 by Asiantravel

[Publicus]

It might be hard to believe but here from the Eurasia Review journal is a piece published today by a strong Putin supporter, admirer and most recently a severe critic who says Putin is failing to stand up to the West......

Russia's Ruble banknote

RUBLE TAKEDOWN EXPOSES CRACKS IN PUTIN’S DEFENSE – OPED

In the last 10 months, the United States has executed a near-perfect takedown of the Russian economy.

Following a sloppy State Department-backed coup in Kiev, Washington has consolidated its power in the Capital, removed dissident elements in the government, deployed the CIA to oversee operations, launched a number of attacks on rebel forces in the east, transferred ownership of Ukraine’s vital pipeline system to US puppets and foreign corporations, created a tollbooth separating Moscow from the lucrative EU market, foiled a Russian plan to build an alternate pipeline to southern Europe (South Stream), built up its military assets in the Balkans and Black Sea and, finally–the cherry on the cake–initiated a daring sneak attack on Russia’s currency by employing its Saudi-proxy to flood the market with oil, push prices off a cliff, and trigger a run on the ruble which slashed its value by more than half forcing retail currency platforms to stop trading the battered ruble until prices stabilized.

Like we said, Putin might be a great chess player, but in his battle with the US, he’s getting his clock cleaned.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/20122014-ruble-takedown-exposes-cracks-putins-defense-oped/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29

Maybe the angry Putin admirer who wrote the piece might start to think Obama may be a pretty good checkers player after all.....

[Publicus]

Not being a specialist in international economics cannot argue with most posts made above. However the OP statement (quote):

" In short, the US and the European Union are too strong for Russia to resist - financially, economically and militarily."

has not been fully discussed.

Painting Russia in a corner financially and economically leaves the "military" aspect outside of the discussion focus.

Any ideas from this angle? Without a common and often displayed attitude like they are weak, they are going to fall apart after one push, etc.

Seriously... ?

China earlier warned an attack on Iran would start World War 3 .

Why does anyone think for 1 min that China would not equally support such a close partner as Russia?

Because the CCP Boyz in Beijing know Putin is a loser.

Putin wants the CCP Boyz to kick some arse in the East Sea against Japan, in the South China Sea against the Phils, Vietnam, Malaysia and other Asean states, and against the United States if need be. The Boyz in Zhongnanhai which is Beijing's Kremlin know Putin is nuts and they are seeing what happens to leaders who go nuts against their neighbors.

Both Beijing and Moscow are irredentist and revanchist but only Putin has acted on these impulses, in Ukraine. Beijing is busy taking a good look at how badly that went over in the West.

PLA Major General Zhang Zhaozhong was the guy who said nuclear war over Iran....he also said the PLANavy would invade the Phils, that China would go to war to protect Pakistan against Nato (???); defend Russia against any and all Nato aggression, and that smog is Beijing's best defense against US military laser weapons. That was before he got forcibly retired in 2011 and removed from his faculty position at the Chinese Military University.

A Chinese general says the country's thick smog is its best defence against US laser weapons, it's been reported.

Gen Zhang has been criticised online by social media users, but says his comments were taken out of context. He was talking about the weakness of the laser gun, not advocating for smog, he says. The general's comments follow reports that the Pentagon is preparing to deploy its first laser weapon aboard the USS Ponce.

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-26322868

[VegasVic]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Let's keep in mind that the entire Chinese economy is so opaque that nobody knows what is going on. They could be bankrupt right now, and it would take a decade for anybody to figure it out.

Very true, and the real estate bubble begining to burst in China is just the first shoe to drop, the shadow banking system could begin to unravel if this real estate crisis in China were to worsen and of course there is always the possibility of a large scale uprising by the Chinese people as the economy continues to slow down and layoffs continue to mount

[VegasVic]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

this writer does not have a clue how markets work. yes the Russian have just turned on there 25 billion swap agreement with China and are asking for a much bigger line , China is learning the hard way what it is like to be a reserve currency . if they get in bed with the Russians it will cost them a ton of there reserves.the Russian govenment does not have a lot of debt it is there oil companies in dollar debt, one gas company alone has 25 billion coming due in dollar debt this month. the chinese have already cut off Venezuela they loaned them 35 billion down that sinking oil producer rat hole. Saudis are cleaning house killing off all there competition , even Norway and the British are feeling it now. Chinese are next with ist hugh oil companies that have dollar based debt. lower oil prices and strong dollar all oil companies in deep trouble= no exploration, massive layoffs=less competition higher price in about 2 to 3 years. No alternative fuels innovations prefect world for the Arabs

Very well put there BCB! I have seen some really ignorant articles from the Nation over the past few years but this one takes the cake, the author must have not even taken the most elementary ECON 101 in college As for the posters here on TV, one does expect ignorance on issues like this and I have to say I am not disappointed this time around as usual The great strawman argument of "China holds all this massive U.S. debt and if they dumped it on the market they would crush the U.S. economy" I always love this one, of course the truth is that China holds about the same ammount of U.S. debt that trades on Wall Street in a weeks time, so while it might rattle the markets for a few weeks in the end it would be absorbed but then China would be absolutely screwed from that point forward Russia is between a rock and a hard place and the price of oil hasn't even dropped into the $40's (yet) , I do not know what the end game is for Vlad and Russia but I would imagine that they will be selling some of those gold reserves verrrry soon

[boomerangutang]

Simple solution:

Russia could trade Siberia to China for 10 billion plastic laundry baskets. Win-win

[Major4608]

US economy is getting better. Dollar should be fine. Can't say the same for Russia. The world is watching the ruble decline with concern. Maybe It's time for Putin to invade another country to get our minds off the the ruble.

Edited December 21, 2014 by Major4608

[thailiketoo]

A complete story from the OP with no mention of oil? What the.....?

[Scott]

A post with an oversized graphic which messes up the formatting on the thread has been removed, along with a reply.

[Asiantravel]

People never learn from their past mistakes.

There are many permutations to this .....................

There is even a financial doomsday scenario.

don’t provoke the bear, because the bear could invoke it in a flash…………..

What Putin is not Telling Us: The Raid on the Ruble was supposed to be a Checkmate. It’s Not

http://www.globalresearch.ca/what-putin-is-not-telling-us-the-raid-on-the-ruble-was-supposed-to-be-a-checkmate-its-not/5420985

[lovetotravel]

People never learn from their past mistakes.

There are many permutations to this .....................

There is even a financial doomsday scenario.

don’t provoke the bear, because the bear could invoke it in a flash…………..

What Putin is not Telling Us: The Raid on the Ruble was supposed to be a Checkmate. It’s Not:P

http://www.globalresearch.ca/what-putin-is-not-telling-us-the-raid-on-the-ruble-was-supposed-to-be-a-checkmate-its-not/5420985

Tinfoil hat website. Sad people actually believe this stuff. Tells a lot about a person.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Globalresearch.ca

While many of Globalresearch's articles discuss legitimate humanitarian or environmental concerns, the site has a strong undercurrent of reality warping throughout its pages, especially in relation to taking its news from sources such as Russia Today. Its view of science, the economy and geopolitics seems to be broadly conspiracist.

Whenever someone makes a remarkable claim and cites Globalresearch, they are almost certainly wrong.

Despite presenting itself as a source of scholarly analysis, Globalresearch mostly consists of polemics many of which accept (and use) conspiracy theories, pseudoscience and propaganda. The prevalent conspiracist strand relates to global power-elites (primarily governments and corporations) and their New World Order.^%5B2%5D Specific featured conspiracy theories include those addressing 9/11,^%5B3%5Dvaccines,^%5B4%5Dgenetic modification,^%5B5%5DZionism,^{%5B6%5D%5B7%5D}HAARP,^%5B8%5Dglobal warming,^{%5B9%5D%5B10%5D}Bosnian genocide denialism^%5B11%5Dchemtrails,^%5B12%5D and David Kelly.^%5B13%5D

Globalresearch contributors are happy to source information from anyone who seems vaguely aligned with their ideology; during the 2011 Libyan civil war the site was an apologist for Muammar al-Gaddafi,^%5B14%5D reproducing his propaganda and painting him as a paragon of a modern leader. In the 2014 Ukrainian crisis the site is taking the standard "anti-globalisation" stance against the Western side and falling into the ranks of imperial Russian propaganda instead.

It's no surprise then that the site has long become a magnet for radicals, fringe figures and whacko elements from the left in general.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Chossudovsky

Terry O'Neill, criticizing a list of Canadian academics opposed to US foreign policy, the invasion of Iraq, and Israel's wars, in the Western Standard included Chossudovsky on the list of "Canada's nuttiest professors, those whose absurdity stands head and shoulders above their colleagues";^%5B21%5D criticizing Chussodovsky's thesis and views – that the U.S. had knowledge of the September 11 attacks before they happened; that Washington had weapons that could influence climate change; and lastly, that the large banking institutions are the cause of the collapse of smaller economies – as "wild-eyed conspiracy theories".^%5B21%5D

May as well read RT.

[mania]

Tinfoil hat website. Sad people actually believe this stuff. Tells a lot about a person.

May as well read RT.

Lemme get this straight

Global Research is a Tinfoil hat site & your going to quote

rationalwiki.org & wikipedia.org

both site any tom,dick & harry can edit to their liking as some kind of source of superiority?

All Righty then

Edited December 21, 2014 by mania

[Digitalnomade]

the green dollar is not better than in 2008.don't believe the Internet propaganda.

If it was better, like some of you say here , I would be able to get 40 baths for a dollar or even more.

in fact the situation get worse and worse every second passing. the debt goes up and up.... how can you say it's better?

Edited December 21, 2014 by Digitalnomade