Thai diplomacy faces uphill tasks

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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Thai diplomacy faces uphill tasks
Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- As the Prayut government continues to concentrate on political reform and constitutional drafting throughout this year, the country's foreign policy will not receive much attention. For the past seven months, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been the main government agency to explain what was going on inside the country.

The ministry and its foreign missions have tried to maintain "business-as-usual" with allies and friends. The outcome is a patchwork due to the continued imposition of martial law and electoral ambiguity. Rubbing salt into the wound was Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krua-Ngam's recent revelation that the planned election would be delayed and held in the first quarter of 2016. It did not go down well with the US and European Union. Later Washington said the new timeframe was unwise.

Earlier, senior Thai officials in the Prime Minister's Office wanted to suspend any contact with the US embassy as a retaliation - but subsequently declined following clarification from the Americans. Both the US and EU have been pressing Thailand for an early poll by the end of this year.

However, the countries in East Asia and Asean have expressed understanding of the difficult tasks the current government must overcome before a general election can be slated. China's diplomatic response towards the Prayut government was warm and quickly rewarded. The Thai-Chinese leaders have also established a strong personal rapport that even the 182-year US-Thai relationship could not equal. US allies Japan and South Korea, have decided to conduct business transactions with the government at the highest levels despite their initial criticism of military adventurism. Prayut is scheduled to visit Japan early in February. This is the first time that Thailand's foreign policy has zeroed in on East Asia exclusively.

Despite diplomatic contacts remaining at the middle level with Western countries, there has been no policy action. For instance, the free-trade agreement between Thailand and the EU, which was almost achieved before the coup, has been completely halted. Any effort to jumpstart negotiations again would be extremely difficult in the absence of an electoral date.

Thai-US relations are frozen at the present with little prospect of improvement this year. The US embassy in Bangkok will not have an ambassador in place any time soon due to delay in Congress approving such positions. The envoy's absence further reinforces the insignificance of Thai-US bilateral ties.

The planned annual military exercise, Cobra Gold, scheduled in early February could be affected. Last year, the Pentagon said the multinational exercise would be small and focusing on disaster management and humanitarian assistance. More than Thai and US officials would like to admit, the exercise this year also serves as a face-serving device not to disrupt the region's largest military exercise. Washington has cut off military aid to Bangkok.

This will be the international environment the Thai government has to contend with and work on until the lifting of martial law and the scheduled election for the next 14-15 months. It will be restrictive with small room for diplomatic manoeuvres. In October, Thailand failed miserably to get sufficient votes to win its second bid for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. That was a big loss of face. Before the May 22 coup, Bangkok was confident of winning with overwhelming votes. As it turned out, six Western friends changed their minds and enabled Qatar to win.

The campaign to compete for a non-permanent seat in the UN Security Council for 2017-18 has continued unabated. Thailand will be pitched against the oil-rich Kazakhstan. Without the military power seizure or human rights violations and gagging of media freedoms, as they are today, Bangkok has a very good chance of winning.

The National Council for Peace and Order and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha do not seem to appreciate the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' ongoing efforts. After all, there have not been dramatic improvements in the civil rights situation in Thailand - a necessary step to create a favourable atmosphere to win international sympathy and support. Worse, Foreign Minister General Tanasak Patimapragorn is nowhere to be seen except in international meetings. He has not yet spoken to the press about what he plans to do and where his country is heading. His assistant, Don Pramudwinai has been equally mute.

There will also be a new team of senior officials at the ministry including a permanent secretary and his four deputies along with the new chiefs of the Asean and East Asia departments. Depending on how well they work together, it is doubtful whether Thai policy will be as engaging and proactive as before. One indicator could be the 2nd Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), which Thailand will host on March 8-12, a commitment made by the Yingluck government in 2013. The ACD was set up by her brother Thaksin in 2002. The first summit was held in Kuwait in the same year. Thailand hopes to use the summit to highlight its foreign policy and rally ACD members to support Thailand's UN candidacy.

In retrospect, it is understandable why Tanasak, who speaks English and has more diplomatic exposure, did not want to outshine his senior colleague, Prayut. So, it is better for him to remain with a low-key image - reducing, in effect, the country's diplomatic profile. Instead of serving as foreign minister, he has morphed into an aide-de-camp, much like other senior military officials appointed to head various ministries.

If this trend continues, the perception of Thailand in the regional and international arena will be greatly diminished.

Prayut's pledges to integrate Thailand smoothly into the Asean Community will come short because the government and the ministry are not in sync with one another. And that goes for other international schemes too.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Thai-diplomacy-faces-uphill-tasks-30251168.html


-- The Nation 2015-01-05

[chooka]

The world doesn't recognise the Thai army as a government.

[NongKhaiKid]

The country doesn't help itself with the regular habit of issuing statements etc on behalf of other nations which are never supported by the country in question.

Thailand has yet to be taken out in public over this but a lot of diplomatic activity is quiet and done behind the scenes so I wonder what may have been said through official channels. However with Thainess in vogue these days complaints or warnings will likely fall on deaf ears as Thai spokespeople happily report the world understands the junta and supports its work.

Edited January 5, 2015 by NongKhaiKid

[Somtamnication]

All the govt can answer with the 5 "wh" questions is: "hummm, ammm, aargghh, eehhh, not unnerstand, wait one minute, mai mee, mai loo and mai pben rai".

[chainarong]

There are lies and damned lies, with Thailand can you believe what they say and is it the truth , the government issues statements, the police issue statements can these be believed , just this morning I read a interesting article about why piece will not return to the south of Thailand , the point being did the Thai media print this article, I think not , while human rights and freedom of speech are abused , until these are addressed Thailand's international reputation will continue to come under attack ,along with their increasing friendship with China , Thailand can only be regarded as a basket case and notably not to be trusted.

[ChrisY1]

The world doesn't recognise the Thai army as a government.

And...nor should they.

[DKUNPUTAF713]

Just some more junta propaganda!!!!

[yellowboat]

Thailand is everybody's ally and nobody's friend, and that is not lost on educated politicians, historians and statesmen. Their behavior is obvious to everyone but themselves.

[noitom]

The Thai dram continues to unfold. The Thai circus and the Thai press is the best free entertainment in the world. Thais are filled with ego and self absorption. They revel in their own ineptness. This writer's tripe is always a constant reminder of the Thai comedy of errors.

[Sydebolle]

I wonder what would happen if Thailand would express her opinion on "unwise" European or US domestic politics.

Fact is that the US (a hopeless disaster with one in seven on food stamps) as well as some European countries (i.e. Spain with 50%+ unemployed among the 20-30 years old citizen) would be well advised to clean up their own mess first as both continents do not have that twinkling spark anymore.

Let the Thais deal with it; democracy does not work everywhere and is to be decided by its people. I, for one, have not met a single Thai who would want to go back to the mess this country was in before.

[yellowboat]

I wonder what would happen if Thailand would express her opinion on "unwise" European or US domestic politics.

Fact is that the US (a hopeless disaster with one in seven on food stamps) as well as some European countries (i.e. Spain with 50%+ unemployed among the 20-30 years old citizen) would be well advised to clean up their own mess first as both continents do not have that twinkling spark anymore.

Let the Thais deal with it; democracy does not work everywhere and is to be decided by its people. I, for one, have not met a single Thai who would want to go back to the mess this country was in before.

Currently things are not good in the west and they deserve harsh criticism, but that does not excuse Thailand for it's current behavior.

Many Thais I know, even in Bangkok, are furious that they do not have a vote and a say in government.

[AwesomeJohn]

I wonder what would happen if Thailand would express her opinion on "unwise" European or US domestic politics.

Fact is that the US (a hopeless disaster with one in seven on food stamps) as well as some European countries (i.e. Spain with 50%+ unemployed among the 20-30 years old citizen) would be well advised to clean up their own mess first as both continents do not have that twinkling spark anymore.

Let the Thais deal with it; democracy does not work everywhere and is to be decided by its people. I, for one, have not met a single Thai who would want to go back to the mess this country was in before.

Mess caused by who?

Yellow mobs in the streets, Green generals arming the rabble, Blue blooded elites funding the mayhem.

If, as you say, not a single Thai wants to go back to the ways things were then surely those that think as you do would win an election in a landslide after which they could make any and all changes felt necessary to fix things....legally.

Fact is you lack support, Reds will continue to win elections and democracy will be the saviour of Thailand.

[Tchooptip]

The world doesn't recognise the Thai army as a government.

But the ''world'' has no problem with the democratic government of Saudi Arabia

[Baerboxer]

The world doesn't recognise the Thai army as a government.

No - but they recognize the current government of Thailand as such.

[Baerboxer]

I wonder what would happen if Thailand would express her opinion on "unwise" European or US domestic politics.

Fact is that the US (a hopeless disaster with one in seven on food stamps) as well as some European countries (i.e. Spain with 50%+ unemployed among the 20-30 years old citizen) would be well advised to clean up their own mess first as both continents do not have that twinkling spark anymore.

Let the Thais deal with it; democracy does not work everywhere and is to be decided by its people. I, for one, have not met a single Thai who would want to go back to the mess this country was in before.

Mess caused by who?

Yellow mobs in the streets, Green generals arming the rabble, Blue blooded elites funding the mayhem.

If, as you say, not a single Thai wants to go back to the ways things were then surely those that think as you do would win an election in a landslide after which they could make any and all changes felt necessary to fix things....legally.

Fact is you lack support, Reds will continue to win elections and democracy will be the saviour of Thailand.

The Reds as you label them have nothing to do with democracy. They are a paid for militia of the Shin clan, who have zero interest in democracy other than something they can fix to claim legitimacy.

The elites, like all elites, only want democracy within their own class - something the UK only got away from after WW2 and that took the French a revolution or two.

Democracy may one day be the savior for Thailand, but not if it involves the very undemocratic Shins or their elite opponents in power.

[Baerboxer]

I wonder what would happen if Thailand would express her opinion on "unwise" European or US domestic politics.

Fact is that the US (a hopeless disaster with one in seven on food stamps) as well as some European countries (i.e. Spain with 50%+ unemployed among the 20-30 years old citizen) would be well advised to clean up their own mess first as both continents do not have that twinkling spark anymore.

Let the Thais deal with it; democracy does not work everywhere and is to be decided by its people. I, for one, have not met a single Thai who would want to go back to the mess this country was in before.

Currently things are not good in the west and they deserve harsh criticism, but that does not excuse Thailand for it's current behavior.

Many Thais I know, even in Bangkok, are furious that they do not have a vote and a say in government.

Most Thais I know are more realistic. They know a vote for PTP means rule by Thaksin and he won't give a fig for what the electorate say after he's been voted in. Proved that before. A vote for the Dems - no changes, feudal control in the interests of the elite, Vote for regional based power brokers' parties - they will align to who gives them the most or best "earning" positions.

All about the money, No real fire brand politicians looking to represent the people and change things radically.

[yellowboat]

Most Thais I know are more realistic. They know a vote for PTP means rule by Thaksin and he won't give a fig for what the electorate say after he's been voted in. Proved that before. A vote for the Dems - no changes, feudal control in the interests of the elite, Vote for regional based power brokers' parties - they will align to who gives them the most or best "earning" positions.

All about the money, No real fire brand politicians looking to represent the people and change things radically.

Being "realistic" is the new term for being short sighted and self interested ? I've met those sorts of people but not many. Tragically, roll models and world citizens in the Land of Smiles number in the slim to none, where as in Hong Kong, Taiwan and China there are a greater number. Why is Thailand so backward ?

[selftaopath]

I wonder what would happen if Thailand would express her opinion on "unwise" European or US domestic politics.

Fact is that the US (a hopeless disaster with one in seven on food stamps) as well as some European countries (i.e. Spain with 50%+ unemployed among the 20-30 years old citizen) would be well advised to clean up their own mess first as both continents do not have that twinkling spark anymore.

Let the Thais deal with it; democracy does not work everywhere and is to be decided by its people. I, for one, have not met a single Thai who would want to go back to the mess this country was in before.

Currently things are not good in the west and they deserve harsh criticism, but that does not excuse Thailand for it's current behavior.

Many Thais I know, even in Bangkok, are furious that they do not have a vote and a say in government.

Maybe they're furious for not getting the usual Bt200-300 for "their vote." ??? Ya think? That's the way it works here in "the boonies."

[rickirs]

"The planned annual military exercise, Cobra Gold, scheduled in early February could be affected."

I'd say that it is a high probability that it will be affected by four events.

First is the Junta's continued affirmation to remain in power no matter what electoral or governance system is allowed.

Second is the Thailand-China Joint Security Agreement signed last July. Thailand military uses a range of Chinese military weapon systems and has conducted military exercises with the Chinese special forces. Yet, Thailand has no neighboring sea or land hostilities that endanger its sovereignty. ASEAN as whole have turned down Chinese proposals for joint military exercise.

Third is the Junta's rush to trade with Russia when the EU/US trade sanctions went into effect against Russia.

The fourth is that there is no US ambassador to Thailand. This is deliberate downgrade of diplomatic relationship and provdes deniability to any inference that the US supports the Junta's control of the nation.

If the US goes forward with Cobra Gold with Thailand, it might as well do the same with Cuba and North Korea. It will be a meaningless partnership.

[chainarong]

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I wonder what would happen if Thailand would express her opinion on "unwise" European or US domestic politics.

Fact is that the US (a hopeless disaster with one in seven on food stamps) as well as some European countries (i.e. Spain with 50%+ unemployed among the 20-30 years old citizen) would be well advised to clean up their own mess first as both continents do not have that twinkling spark anymore.

Let the Thais deal with it; democracy does not work everywhere and is to be decided by its people. I, for one, have not met a single Thai who would want to go back to the mess this country was in before.

Let the people decide have a referendum on the CDC version and any other issues that need voting on , not forced on.

[Baerboxer]

Most Thais I know are more realistic. They know a vote for PTP means rule by Thaksin and he won't give a fig for what the electorate say after he's been voted in. Proved that before. A vote for the Dems - no changes, feudal control in the interests of the elite, Vote for regional based power brokers' parties - they will align to who gives them the most or best "earning" positions.

All about the money, No real fire brand politicians looking to represent the people and change things radically.

Being "realistic" is the new term for being short sighted and self interested ? I've met those sorts of people but not many. Tragically, roll models and world citizens in the Land of Smiles number in the slim to none, where as in Hong Kong, Taiwan and China there are a greater number. Why is Thailand so backward ?

Not sure backward is the right word. The Thais have a completely different way of thinking based on their own education system and culture and really like their way of life, Most Thais just don't want any confrontation or the hassle of thinking too much about problems - and that includes all social strata.

I've been lucky enough to spend a lot of time in HK, Taiwan and some parts of China. You are right, things are much different their. Thailand just doesn't develop - everyone seems to like it the way it is. Crazy.