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Are Thai-US relations warming up slowly?


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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Are Thai-US relations warming up slowly?

Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- After he left Bangkok on April 8 2014, Daniel R Russel, US Assistant State Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was confident Thailand would be able to handle domestic political turmoil in the foreseeable future - anything short of a military coup.

During his brief visit, he spoke at length with Thai PBS about Washington's hopes of seeing the region's oldest democratic ally play an active role in the US rebalancing policy. He reiterated that the US had very high expectations for a Thai democratic future through the electoral process. From his interview, it was clear that elections were a prerequisite for a democratic Thailand and its ability to continue as a trusted US ally. After his trip, he filed a report to John Kerry, US Secretary of State.

However, 44 days later on May 22, out of the blue, the Thai military seized power. Washington was caught by surprise as there was no indication whatsoever that the coup was imminent. That helped explain why Kerry's reaction was pretty strong and still reverberates in the hearts and minds of the Thai power- wielders even today. Since then, Thai-US relations quickly went downhill without any prospect of amelioration.

Now, after 259 days of no contact at the ministerial level, the frozen Thai-US relations are poised to warm up. Russel is returning to Bangkok for a two-day visit on January 26 "to do whatever he can to improve Thai-US relations," in the words of an official overseeing the scheduled visit. As the most senior US official to date to visit and make contact with the Thai government - still not fully accepted by Washington - what he says and does will be closely scrutinised. Apart from the US, the EU has not normalised ties with Thailand pending a future election. Other democracies, Australia and New Zealand, are more pro-active in engaging Thailand.

Russel's visit, which also takes him to Malaysia and Cambodia, comes at the most pivotal time ahead of the two important Thai-US events during the first half of this year. First will be the annual Cobra Gold - the region's largest military exercise, jointly hosted by Thailand and the US for the past three decades. The two-week annual exercise will kick off on February 10 in Nakorn Nayoke, despite earlier calls to move the event elsewhere after the coup.

This time the exercise will be on a smaller scale, focusing on a disaster and humanitarian relief operation. At least 10,000 Thai, American and international troops will be participating. Unlike previous years, the publicity will be low profile and limited.

It is interesting to note that after the coup, a new sense of empathy toward the US is emerging among Thai security officials who are no longer preoccupied with the US and its strategic postures. Previously, they would pivot their responses on US positions and adjust accordingly to ensure a well-balanced foreign policy.

Now, Thailand has become more versatile in exploring new security relations. To use the phrases popularised by former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Thailand is currently moving from the 'known-knowns' to the 'known-unknowns' in its relations with major powers. In the past several months, in absence of US engagement, Thailand has expanded defense dialogues and programmes with China, Russia and Vietnam.

At the East Asia Summit in Nay Pyi Taw in October, Russia worked hard to move closer towards Asean amid the Western sanctions. Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev established a good rapport with his Thai counterpart, General Prayut, which soon could lead to the PM's official visit to Moscow. Russia has also moved assertively to strengthen ties with Thailand with new initiatives promoting bilateral trade, investment, energy security, transfer of high-tech knowledge, widening security cooperation and arms procurements.

Russia has already offered to barter its exports for Thai agricultural products and using currencies - other than US dollar - that both sides have agreed upon. Thailand, as a key non-Nato ally, has been frustrated with its slow and complicated arms procurements from the US.

As such, the forthcoming Cobra Gold will also serve as a weather vane of the future Thai-US security cooperation within the context of the US rebalancing policy.

Next on the list would be Thailand's status in the US State Department's Trafficking in Persons Report. Last year, the country was downgraded from the Tier 2 Watch-list to Tier 3 because it failed to protect migrant workers and crack down on human trafficking. At the time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was confident the US would upgrade the country's status to Tier 2 as numerous measures were created and prosecution of criminal cases against migrant workers and traffickers were at an all-time high. Some officials still believed that without the coup, Thailand would receive positive reviews.

Despite the downgrade, US President Barack Obama has not imposed any sanctions against Thailand. Ahead of the report's release last June, leading human rights organisations around the world urged Obama to impose sanctions to punish Thailand's poor human rights record. But he was reluctant to do so giving the country's second chance.

Currently, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha's creditability is on the line, hinging on a dramatic improvement in anti-human illegal activities to prevent future US sanctions. He has instructed all concerned agencies to improve the human rights situation as pointed out by the TIP report last year. Thailand will submit the progress report by the end of this month. In a recent intra-agency meeting which he chaired, Prayut pointedly threatened to reshuffle senior officials, individual or collectively, who failed to make tangible progress.

Beyond these two events, the continued imposition of martial law and a delayed election could be spoilers in any effort to improve bilateral ties. If that is the prevailing scenario, it means Thai-US relations are not as seriously important as their officials like to portray.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Are-Thai-US-relations-warming-up-slowly-30251708.html

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-- The Nation 2015-01-12

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I don't think trying to figure out what both countries are about is going to change the gravity under the ground, so far the relationship it is cordial and cold, it will remain at this temperature till Thailand gets it's rear into gear and becomes a democratic responsible international member , Thailand's posturing and body language at the moment suggest otherwise , the ball is in Thailand's court.coffee1.gif

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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

USA is interested in Thailand:

1) Geographical location to China just like the USA used Thailand for Vietnam.

2) Food source and for USA to sell GM Crops

3) There is oil in the north of Thailand and USA was already involved in the extraction of this.

4) There is Gold (not sure how much and cost of extraction) in the north of Thailand.

The USA was well cheesed off with the Thai army take over because it would appear Thaksin family were selling off Thailand to the USA.

Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan.

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i wonder how much the US and other western countries will pull back from Thailand the more they involve themselves with China ?

There will be relations but maybe not so in-depth the more Thailand allows Chinese influence to spread and there's the small matter of other ASEAN members in dispute with China over maritime issues.

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More BS editorial from the nation's news-mouth. Strategically Thailand has a lot of interest for the west particularly with the rise of China, economically Thailand has nothing to offer, you can buy seafood, chicken, fruit juice and auto parts from many places. Thailand does not have much in the way of vital resources such as oil and minerals that cannot be obtained elsewhere, matter of fact is that Thailand is a major importer of metals and petroleum.

Thailand still gets especially low tariff rates from the western world on their exports despite the military coup and appalling human rights record that have dropped them to the lowest tier.

What I see the current regime doing is playing the old Yugoslavian game of playing the east versus the west in an effort to gain from both sides.

In two or three years time if there is not free and fair elections in Thailand and martial law is still in place that disallows dissent, Thais will be happy that the western nations voice their opinions as their own protests will not be heard.

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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

USA is interested in Thailand:

1) Geographical location to China just like the USA used Thailand for Vietnam.

2) Food source and for USA to sell GM Crops

3) There is oil in the north of Thailand and USA was already involved in the extraction of this.

4) There is Gold (not sure how much and cost of extraction) in the north of Thailand.

The USA was well cheesed off with the Thai army take over because it would appear Thaksin family were selling off Thailand to the USA.

Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan.

"Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan."

Uugh...uugh, Im thinking, maybe 911?

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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

My opinion, and only that....

Thailand just seems to be in the right place...at the right time. I am looking at the surrounding areas on the map...and if I were to pick a good, "Hub", in the Strategic/Logistical sense.....it would be Thailand.

I think, through no fault/credit of their own.....the USA would like to keep them close, for that reason.

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The US has forced Thailand to look elsewhere for friends because of their ridiculous push for a democratic gov. here which has proven time and time again doesn;t work. They won't give this new gov any time to straighten our their issues politically. This new regime is doing the best they can to get things straightened out here and so many of the idiots on this blog keep pissing at them. They haven't gone around with kill squds like africa or the middle east but they have taken wealth away from the rich who aquired so much of it illegally. Oh the US don;t like that. The rich should never be questioned. This Thai gov. may not be perfect but is still better than the alternatives. The US is the moron here as they usually are internationally.

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The US and Thailand need each other. If the US wants to maintain some sort of foothold in SE Asia, the only places that make sense are Singapore (important but small), the Philippines (still ambivalent about the US presence), and Thailand ... an argument could also be made for Cambodia, but Hun Sen is not someone you'd want to often stand on stage beside. Thailand is relatively open to the west and has proved cooperative in the past ("dark sites" etc.) in a way that its neighbours have not. Of course, Thailand benefits greatly from the US economically. So a partnership makes sense. In fact, it's inevitable regardless of how supposedly 'democratic' Thailand is....

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The US has forced Thailand to look elsewhere for friends because of their ridiculous push for a democratic gov. here which has proven time and time again doesn;t work. They won't give this new gov any time to straighten our their issues politically. This new regime is doing the best they can to get things straightened out here and so many of the idiots on this blog keep pissing at them. They haven't gone around with kill squds like africa or the middle east but they have taken wealth away from the rich who aquired so much of it illegally. Oh the US don;t like that. The rich should never be questioned. This Thai gov. may not be perfect but is still better than the alternatives. The US is the moron here as they usually are internationally.

Over the top...and a bit of nonsense.

No sanctions....still buddies.

I just don't get what you are saying. The USA must "publicly" declare that an elected government is best. The two governments have probably worked out a bit of a "behind the doors" consensus, that stability is number one. No brainer.

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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

USA is interested in Thailand:

1) Geographical location to China just like the USA used Thailand for Vietnam.

2) Food source and for USA to sell GM Crops

3) There is oil in the north of Thailand and USA was already involved in the extraction of this.

4) There is Gold (not sure how much and cost of extraction) in the north of Thailand.

The USA was well cheesed off with the Thai army take over because it would appear Thaksin family were selling off Thailand to the USA.

Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan.

1) Agree - though the Philippines' location is arguably more beneficial from a strategic POV

2) Not sure how critical Thailand is to the US on this front

3) Have you looked at oil prices lately? With fracking and Canada's supplies in the near north, Thailand is just not on the radar

4) We are both uncertain on this...

But Afghanistan??? I've been asking myself what has the US gained from this other than it's initial aim of removing the Taliban from power for sheltering Al Queda and UBL. Care to enlighten?

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"Beyond these two events, the continued imposition of martial law and a delayed election could be spoilers in any effort to improve bilateral ties. If that is the prevailing scenario, it means Thai-US relations are not as seriously important as their officials like to portray."

"Thailand, as a key non-Nato ally, has been frustrated with its slow and complicated arms procurements from the US."

"Thailand has expanded defense dialogues and programmes with China, Russia and Vietnam."

The US has long had a defense treaty with Thailand, promising to defend it if attacked by outside forces. Thailand recently doesn't choose very good friends for when the chips are down. Its asking to be gobbled up by China which is on the verge of collapse itself. It has made bilateral trade agreements for "barter" with Russia which is already on its lips.

The US is the #2 buyer of Thai exports behind only Japan.

And, a fascist military dictatorship which overthrew an elected government wants the US to look the other way. Not gonna happen. (Look up "fascist" before you throw stones.)

So USA isn't happy dealing with a "fascist military dictatorship" - how about dealing with Communist Vietnam?

In October the USA announced it would be selling weapons to Vietnam for maritime security.

""State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters the U.S. will now allow sales of lethal maritime security capabilities and for surveillance on a case-by-case basis.

U.S. officials said it could include both boats and air assets, subject to discussion with Vietnam and evaluation of its needs, particularly its coast guard.

U.S. officials said the easing of the ban recognized improvements by Vietnam's authoritarian government on human rights, including the release of 11 prisoners of conscience this year and progress on religious freedom, but the move was primarily driven by America's national security interests.

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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

USA is interested in Thailand:

1) Geographical location to China just like the USA used Thailand for Vietnam.

2) Food source and for USA to sell GM Crops

3) There is oil in the north of Thailand and USA was already involved in the extraction of this.

4) There is Gold (not sure how much and cost of extraction) in the north of Thailand.

The USA was well cheesed off with the Thai army take over because it would appear Thaksin family were selling off Thailand to the USA.

Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan.

Cashboy

ALL countries are interested in other countries for the benefits of their own country. Don't know where you are from but I am sure your country is out for self preservation itself.coffee1.gif

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"Beyond these two events, the continued imposition of martial law and a delayed election could be spoilers in any effort to improve bilateral ties. If that is the prevailing scenario, it means Thai-US relations are not as seriously important as their officials like to portray."

"Thailand, as a key non-Nato ally, has been frustrated with its slow and complicated arms procurements from the US."

"Thailand has expanded defense dialogues and programmes with China, Russia and Vietnam."

The US has long had a defense treaty with Thailand, promising to defend it if attacked by outside forces. Thailand recently doesn't choose very good friends for when the chips are down. Its asking to be gobbled up by China which is on the verge of collapse itself. It has made bilateral trade agreements for "barter" with Russia which is already on its lips.

The US is the #2 buyer of Thai exports behind only Japan.

And, a fascist military dictatorship which overthrew an elected government wants the US to look the other way. Not gonna happen. (Look up "fascist" before you throw stones.)

Well, since the government in Thailand doesn't meet the definition of fascist, it renders your point moot.

Since the coup not much has changed. There have been a few minor sanctions in the form of cancellation of minor training, but not much else.

The CULP training has continued and Cobra Gold is going to happen as well.

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There has been NO evidence of warming US-Thailand relations since the military coup. However, two events may signify a cooling of relationships:

1) No ambassador has been appointed to replace Kenney. Obama used a window of opportunity in December 2014 to get 38 stalled high government officials appointed to office by Congress. There was no one even nominated for the Thailand ambassadorship. There is not even now any speculation of who might be nominated for Thailand.

2) When Obama attended the 2nd ASEAN-U.S. Summit in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, he made no personal appearances with General Prayut. He appeared only in a ASEAN group picture that included Prayut where Obama was not even in "spittin distance" to Prayut. Obama made frequent references in his summit speech to Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia, but not one specific reference to Thailand.

The visit by Assistant Secretary of State Russel was likely preplanned before the coup in conjunction with the delegation for the Extraordinary Meeting of the Friends of the Lower Mekong scheduled in January 2015, in which eight of the largest donor states (ie., the USA) and organizations will meet to discuss regional development strategies. If Russel fails to meet personally with General Prayut and/or not have a photo with him and/or members of his government, that will not add to any warming relations.

US relation now with Thailand is like warmed-over bacon. It's enough to get a nice smell but not edible without gagging.

Edited by rickirs
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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

The writer might want to make an effort to get some US residents to understand that Thailand is NOT the same as Taiwan.

When my fiancee was enrolled at a university in the States, her degree diploma and transcripts were sent to Bangkok, Taiwan, but miraculously they eventually ended up in Bangkok, Thailand. I mean really, how can anyone be confused between Taiwan, which is claimed by China and Thailand, a fully independent nation known by the world for it's tourism industry, tropical weather, beaches, Thai food, canned tuna and well, prostitution. Apart from the Taipei 101 tower, I can't think of anything particular to associate with Taiwan.

But that's probably exactly it - Thailand is not relevant in the US and not a whole lot of Americans have even been here.

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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

USA is interested in Thailand:

1) Geographical location to China just like the USA used Thailand for Vietnam.

2) Food source and for USA to sell GM Crops

3) There is oil in the north of Thailand and USA was already involved in the extraction of this.

4) There is Gold (not sure how much and cost of extraction) in the north of Thailand.

The USA was well cheesed off with the Thai army take over because it would appear Thaksin family were selling off Thailand to the USA.

Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan.

1) Agree - though the Philippines' location is arguably more beneficial from a strategic POV

2) Not sure how critical Thailand is to the US on this front

3) Have you looked at oil prices lately? With fracking and Canada's supplies in the near north, Thailand is just not on the radar

4) We are both uncertain on this...

But Afghanistan??? I've been asking myself what has the US gained from this other than it's initial aim of removing the Taliban from power for sheltering Al Queda and UBL. Care to enlighten?

3. There's oil in the north of Thailand? That's the first time I've ever heard that before. Source please? Even if it's true, there can't be much. The USA is certainly not going to bed with Thailand over a few drops of oil - there are far more important sources.

4. Gold - yeah there's like 1 gold mine called Chatree in Phichit province, whoopdy doo. Again, there are far bigger sources like Australia, South Africa and even Laos has gold.

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whistling.gif Why can they not understand?

The U.S., or for that matter any "world power", can not afford "friends".

What big powers have is Allies , that are temporary friendships of mutual interest for the present moment.

Any country with worldwide interests can only be "friends" with another country as long as their mutual interests and needs coincide.

That applies to the U.S., the U.K., Russia, China, Israel, or Germany ...... or practically any other country that has worldwide interests for the moment that happen to coincide..

The rule is summed up in the old maxim:

Yeah Baby, that's nice, but what have you done for ME lately?

Deal with the reality.

Edited by IMA_FARANG
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"Beyond these two events, the continued imposition of martial law and a delayed election could be spoilers in any effort to improve bilateral ties. If that is the prevailing scenario, it means Thai-US relations are not as seriously important as their officials like to portray."

"Thailand, as a key non-Nato ally, has been frustrated with its slow and complicated arms procurements from the US."

"Thailand has expanded defense dialogues and programmes with China, Russia and Vietnam."

The US has long had a defense treaty with Thailand, promising to defend it if attacked by outside forces. Thailand recently doesn't choose very good friends for when the chips are down. Its asking to be gobbled up by China which is on the verge of collapse itself. It has made bilateral trade agreements for "barter" with Russia which is already on its lips.

The US is the #2 buyer of Thai exports behind only Japan.

And, a fascist military dictatorship which overthrew an elected government wants the US to look the other way. Not gonna happen. (Look up "fascist" before you throw stones.)

Well, since the government in Thailand doesn't meet the definition of fascist, it renders your point moot.

Since the coup not much has changed. There have been a few minor sanctions in the form of cancellation of minor training, but not much else.

The CULP training has continued and Cobra Gold is going to happen as well.

I disagree. Thailand should be considered to be very right on the political sphere.

If you read the 14 characteristics of facism, I would score the current situation in thailand as high for at least 11 of the 14 categories.

http://www.rense.com/general37/fascism.htm

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This Thai writer rambles on again wishing and hoping that the figments of his imagination were real. He and Thais long for a position of value in the world and to belong. Unfortunately, no one is interested in Thailand or especially what Thais think. The US is wasting US taxpayer dollars trying to salvage Thailand from its own self destruction.

USA is interested in Thailand:

1) Geographical location to China just like the USA used Thailand for Vietnam.

2) Food source and for USA to sell GM Crops

3) There is oil in the north of Thailand and USA was already involved in the extraction of this.

4) There is Gold (not sure how much and cost of extraction) in the north of Thailand.

The USA was well cheesed off with the Thai army take over because it would appear Thaksin family were selling off Thailand to the USA.

Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan.

"Ask yourself the real reasons that USA were interested in Afganistan."

Uugh...uugh, Im thinking, maybe 911?

Afghanistan had little if anything to do with 911.

The terrorist involved were from Saudi arabia.

Yes, Osama was in Afghanistan at the time, but he was not an Afghan.

Did you vote to reelect GW?

Afghanistan was all about getting oil the US wanted to ports they could ship it from.

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