What does Putin really want in Ukraine?

[webfact]

What does Putin really want in Ukraine?
Nina Khrushcheva
Reuters

NEW YORK: -- onfusion, confusion, confusion! This is how Russian President Vladimir Putin, increasingly isolated from Western conversations, keeps the world on its toes. Because only he has any answers.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine is growing in ferocity. Russian-supported rebels in the occupied cities of Donetsk and Luhansk now use sophisticated weapons to capture more land and ports. Yet Putin continues to insist that Moscow has nothing to do with it, despite abundant proof from intelligence reports and satellite imagery. He has no influence, Putin declares, over the rebel bands battling for independence from a Kiev government that the CIA installed.

Putin needs the bombastic oratory of war. With economic disaster looming in Russia because of Western sanctions and plunging oil prices, his thinking may be that a threat of war can help justify his autocratic regime. The growing recession is forcing the Russian public to pay a high price for the annexation of Crimea.

Putin seems to be counting on the sanctions to make it the patriotic duty of all Russians to stand by him. As they are doing now - his approval rating is reportedly more than 80 per cent.

Putin has built his image on strength, resolve and total control over his country's actions. His militancy might subside, but only if the West accepts Russia's March annexation of Crimea.

Western approval is highly unlikely, however. Moscow's seizure of Crimea betrayed all international norms. But being the victim of the West serves Putin's interests just as well.

Last week, he was conspicuously absent from the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, the Nazi death camp, one of the Red Army's triumphs in 1945. Snubbed by world leaders, Putin held his own celebration in Moscow, to the loud cheering of the public - united in denunciation of the European lack of gratitude for Russia's sacrifices.

Putin also skipped last month's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He sent his cabinet officials instead, whose job seemed to have been to stir up yet more confusion. One appeared to be granting concessions, while others defended the mighty Russian president.

There is yet more confusion. The Kremlin is talking about international negotiations to de-escalate the conflict and make both Ukrainians and the rebel separatists pull back up to 9,000 troops and 500 tanks. But the round of talks that began last week in the Belarussian capital Minsk was quickly derailed by the rebels. Their leaders have withdrawn from any peace negotiations and have begun a massive offensive in Debaltseve, an important railroad hub, and in and around Mariupol, a strategic port city whose capture could give Moscow overland access to

the Crimean Peninsula.

Despite Putin's denials, it is highly unlikely that the rebels would have initiated this major geopolitical reshuffling on their own.

Some political analysts assert that Putin is all about asymmetrical retaliation: Every time he feels his power is disrespected, he lashes out. Troop deployment, hyped-up anti-Western rhetoric and attacks on Mariupol were Putin's response to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's accusation that Russia has undermined Ukraine's sovereignty.

According to this theory, Putin wants Europe and the United States to feel threatened by a possibility of a larger war with Russia - in order to push them into continuing talks with him. If the talks fail, Putin might want the West to believe, Russia will have no choice but to expand militarily.

Other analysts suggest that what Putin really cares about is the negotiations, not the war. By pushing the rebels to take more territory in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying to create new facts on the ground that Putin can use as leverage in the impending talks.

In this case, both the Kremlin's denial and the rebels' offensive serve to strengthen Russia's diplomatic hand. To avoid further rebel expansion, Kiev might also have to agree to federalisation of the nation. It has already called for a ceasefire with the rebels. It may have to ultimately cease its efforts to join Nato.

Short of accepting Crimea's annexation, the West, regardless of what it thinks about Putin, must continue to meet him at the negotiating table. It is possible that he could follow through on his decision to play a positive role in global affairs, as Dvorkovich, the deputy prime minister who is talking peace, suggested.

Not only because it will help Putin avoid additional sanctions, but also because the Russian economy might not survive additional shocks. There have already been mass layoffs,and the public's growing unhappiness could threaten the existence of Putin's rule.

The so-called Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine may have served the Kremlin's purpose of destabilising that country. But the level of dismay these insurgents have brought with their actions - from the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 that killed 298 people in July, to the dozens of civilians killed around Mariupol in recent weeks - is creating unease across Russia.

So having Russian officials speaking from the different sides of their leader's mouth is a tactic to keep everyone confused. It only further enhances Putin's image as a leader who holds all the answers.

Nina Khrushcheva is professor of international affairs at theNew School University in New York. She is author of "The Lost Khrushchev: A Journey into the Gulag of the Russian Mind".

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/What-does-Putin-really-want-in-Ukraine-30253495.html


-- The Nation 2015-02-06

[Somtamnication]

It is a machismo thing. The only value Ukraine has is a pipeline path and now that Crimea is no longer part of it, the communists now have a good sea port. (Yes, they are still communists, they only dozed off for 20 years).

[F430murci]

Women. All the hotties have been leaving Russia.

[Loptr]

What a load of verbal vomit. Everyone is now dumber for having read it....

Agreed... Western propaganda is now filtering down to 2nd and 3rd tier rags like the Nation...

Tell a lie enough times and even those that are dumb as a bag a rocks begin to believe it...

“It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true."

-Henry Kissinger

[F430murci]

What a load of verbal vomit. Everyone is now dumber for having read it....

Agreed... Western propaganda is now filtering down to 2nd and 3rd tier rags like the Nation...

Tell a lie enough times and even those that are dumb as a bag a rocks begin to believe it...

It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true."

-Henry Kissinger

Nina Khrushcheva is Russian born and educated. She is actually pretty smart and knows the Russian mind set well. What do you bring to the table as to Russian thought processes?

[Baerboxer]

What a load of verbal vomit. Everyone is now dumber for having read it....

Agreed... Western propaganda is now filtering down to 2nd and 3rd tier rags like the Nation...

Tell a lie enough times and even those that are dumb as a bag a rocks begin to believe it...

It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true."

-Henry Kissinger

Nina Khrushcheva is Russian born and educated. She is actually pretty smart and knows the Russian mind set well. What do you bring to the table as to Russian thought processes?

I think he missed the bit that said who the author was and that she was writing for Reuters.

[mopar71]

What a load of verbal vomit. Everyone is now dumber for having read it....

Agreed... Western propaganda is now filtering down to 2nd and 3rd tier rags like the Nation...

Tell a lie enough times and even those that are dumb as a bag a rocks begin to believe it...

“It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true."

-Henry Kissinger

"A lie told often enough becomes the truth."

Vladimir Lenin

"There are no Russian troops in Crimea"

Vladimir Putin

[bartender100]

"his approval rating is reportedly more than 80 per cent"

Kim Jong-un is 100% I believe

[ExPratt]

He wants a surge of Russian Nationalist feeling to keep him in power for the foreseeable future

[StasD]

I forgot she is daughter of ex Soviet leader or grand daughter?

Edited February 6, 2015 by StasD

[wabothai]

The thing Putin is best in is lying cheating and deceiving.

That was his job earlier being head of the secret service, for crying out loud.

he is too smart for his own good.

[Pakboong]

The thing Putin is best in is lying cheating and deceiving.

That was his job earlier being head of the secret service, for crying out loud.

he is too smart for his own good.

He was a KGB operative is that what you are calling head of the secret service?

[Pakboong]

I remain shocked that anyone could actually believe that Putin would risk a thermonuclear war over a failed state. Failed in every respect.

[Jay Sata]

What a load of verbal vomit. Everyone is now dumber for having read it....

Agreed... Western propaganda is now filtering down to 2nd and 3rd tier rags like the Nation...

Tell a lie enough times and even those that are dumb as a bag a rocks begin to believe it...

It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true."

-Henry Kissinger

Nina Khrushcheva is Russian born and educated. She is actually pretty smart and knows the Russian mind set well. What do you bring to the table as to Russian thought processes?

I think he missed the bit that said who the author was and that she was writing for Reuters.

Agreed as an ex Reuters man (tv) you don't get to the stage of bylines easily.

Crimea is a bit like Hawaii. The US sees that outpost being strategic to the point of being a state.

Russia views Crimea in the same way.

The west messed up big time trying to manipulate Ukraine to woo them in to NATO which failed.

The result is this situation where only Russia will win.

[luk AJ]

I remain shocked that anyone could actually believe that Putin would risk a thermonuclear war over a failed state. Failed in every respect.

absolutely, at this very moment I am in Russia and discussed this issue with some businessmen. They say that the conflict in Ukrain is limited to the east where 80% of the population is Russian. They want for these people the status of Federal State within Ukrain. That's all. If tomorrow the Russians in east Ukrain lay down their weapons they will be killed by the Ukrain army. I don't claim this is the whole truth, I just want to let you know how my contacts perceive it.

[F430murci]

I remain shocked that anyone could actually believe that Putin would risk a thermonuclear war over a failed state. Failed in every respect.

absolutely, at this very moment I am in Russia and discussed this issue with some businessmen. They say that the conflict in Ukrain is limited to the east where 80% of the population is Russian. They want for these people the status of Federal State within Ukrain. That's all. If tomorrow the Russians in east Ukrain lay down their weapons they will be killed by the Ukrain army. I don't claim this is the whole truth, I just want to let you know how my contacts perceive it.

Russian pride runs deep, much deeper than in the West. Putin will never back down to the US no matter the cost. Logic and sensibility is completely out of the equation now.

The really sad part is that Ukrainians are caught in the middle and they will suffer. Ukraine's economy went to crap and they had one choice to rebuild their economy and rebuild it quickly. IMF's help.

RE: Putin's motivation

Lets assume for a moment that IMF, US or NATO help actually repaired Ukraine's economy, they turned the corner and began to prosper while their brothers in Russia were suffering due to Russia's economy being in the crapper? Russian would start saying they'll have some if what Ukraine ordered and start questioning Putin.

[espinoza]

Putin have aspergers syndrome. We have to understand him.

[mopar71]

I remain shocked that anyone could actually believe that Putin would risk a thermonuclear war over a failed state. Failed in every respect.

absolutely, at this very moment I am in Russia and discussed this issue with some businessmen. They say that the conflict in Ukrain is limited to the east where 80% of the population is Russian. They want for these people the status of Federal State within Ukrain. That's all. If tomorrow the Russians in east Ukrain lay down their weapons they will be killed by the Ukrain army. I don't claim this is the whole truth, I just want to let you know how my contacts perceive it.

The URBAN population in eastern Ukraine is heavily ethic Russian. The country side is more Ukrainian. This is a result of the USSR moving Russians into the cities much like they did in the other soviet republics. For example, in the capital of Estonia, Tallinn, Russian speakers make up about 40-45% of the population. Go to the countryside a few kilometers outside the city and you find almost none. A lot of ethnic Ukrainians speak Russian as a first language. This is a result of tsarist Russian and later soviet language policies.

Donbas will be independent before it is a federal state within Ukraine. The entire point of Putin wanting Donbas to be a federal state within Ukraine is that he can, through his puppet leaders there, veto any moves by Ukraine to move westward. Ukraine cannot let this happen.

Putin has miscalculated to the point of making the biggest blunder in all of Russia's history. It remains to be seen if it is even bigger than Stalin helping Hitler leading up to WWII...

* Ukraine was a close fellow Slavic nation, now it is lost for our lifetimes.

* Russia was able to influence Ukrainian politics through the pro-Russian population in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Taking Crimea removed 1,000,000 votes that had previously gone to pro-Russia candidates (Yanukovich). Remove Donbas from the equation and Ukraine would be as Russian-friendly as Poland.

* NATO was basically dying with no real mission anymore. The USSR was gone and Afghanistan is winding down. Europeans were comfortable and (western) Europeans laughed at the former soviet-bloc countries who kept warning that Russia was dangerous. Now NATO is surging, sending troops to bases in the Baltics and Poland. A conspiracy nut might even say that Putin is a double-agent working on behalf of NATO. He has screwed the pooch that badly.

* A little over a year ago Ukrainians had little interest in joining NATO and NATO had little interest in offering them membership. More than 50% of the population was against the idea of NATO membership. Plus it would have pissed Russia off. Now, after annexing Crimea and turning Donbas into a war zone, the remainder of Ukraine would be thrilled to be a NATO county - and less than 500km from Moscow.

All of this is secondary to Putin wanting to stay in power and away from the hangman's noose on Red Square in front of the Kremlin. So that's what Putin wants, to stay in power, and stay alive at all costs.

[Johnny S]

Putin is a war-criminal and a child-murderer ....

[bartender100]

Who knows whats in his mind? he might be bonkers, one man with all that power is crazy, hopefully there are safety measures in place in Russia to stop him doing anything to stupid

[F430murci]

Who knows whats in his mind? he might be bonkers, one man with all that power is crazy, hopefully there are safety measures in place in Russia to stop him doing anything to stupid

He is basically a Kim Jong-un with a nuclear arsenal. Throughout his long reign as Russia's number 1 guy, he has had the unfettered power to and has thrown anyone in jail who tries to oppose him. This has included the very rich and those attempting to expose his illegal activities or theft. He jails the rich/oligarchs that are threat and takes their money. He has jailed and had killed those attempting to expose his theft.

Putin does what he does with impunity and, candidly, he is a very bad person with little or no redeeming values. This obviously leads to the mentality of being able to do whatever he wants without any consequences whatsoever. This carries over into the way he deals with world situations. Obama with Syria (backing down when line crossed when Putin said you better not) and with Snowden (when making veiled threats about return of Snowden) has repeatedly demonstrated that he does not have the balls or the will to play tough with Putin. Putin knows US is too cozy and content and will not risk upsetting its way of life by entering a conflict with Russia over smaller issues such as Syria, Ukraine or other Baltic states so Putin knows he can effectively act with impunity in these areas.

There is really only way to to deal with this situation, although I am sure he is threatening war behind the scenes if we do so. US and EU has to show some balls and strength and strangle Russia economically so that internal pressure and Russia's citizens take control of their control and deal with Putin themselves. If that does not occur, this situation is going to get markedly worse until its gets better and it has no hope of getting better until with get a new President that Putin may fear and respect.

[Morch]

I forgot she is daughter of ex Soviet leader or grand daughter?

Khrushcheva is the granddaughter of Leonid Khrushchev, eldest son of former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev. When Leonid died in World War II, Nikita adopted Leonid's two-year old daughter Julia, Nina's mother. Nikita Khrushchev is thus Nina Khrushcheva's biological great-grandfather, but adoptive grandfather. Khrushcheva's father, Lev Petrov, died in 1970, aged 47.^[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nina_L._Khrushcheva

[Pakboong]

The Ukraine has self destructed. You can expect a regime change very soon. Porky has destroyed the country and the people. Unfortunately, he is a US puppet and the US loses by Prozy. I don't expect the US State Department to give up but they have no chance with Porky running things.

The extreme right faction in Kiev is taking control with volunteer battalions. These are the Nazis who support the Bandera ideals. It is ugly but, with the extreme right taking over, we all lose.

Putin has won this thing by essentially doing nothing. His BRICS operation was ratified yesterday and will be operational soon. Russian verson of Swift is ready to go. They have bought every piece of gold they could find. If the US doesn't stop him soon, he could pull this thing off completely.

Putin is doing exactly what I would do in his position so it is difficult for me to fault him. But, I don't like him.

[Choctastic]

Putin is doing exactly what I would do in his position so it is difficult for me to fault him. But, I don't like him.

He is far more likeable than the bought and paid for scoundrels in Washington.

The extent to which people swallow, then re-gurgitate, this anti-Putin nonsense is breathtaking.

Q. Do you agree the media and politicians lied about Iraq WMDs and that this required collusion on a massive scale?

A. Yes

Q. Isn't it fair to say the media campaign was a psychological operation, designed to 'manufacture consent' for war?

A. I suppose so.

So why on earth, after seeing this system operate in the same way, time and again, do ordinary, decent people keep believing they are being told the truth?

Every speech I have seen by Putin and Lavrov has been lucid, insightful and intelligent. If I never picked up a western rag or watched TV, I would see Putin as the saviour of the west, not its enemy. He has restored the Church in Russia. Tossed or neutered the Zionist oligarchs, saved Russia from the disaster that was Yeltsin and has warned the world about the dangers of a 'unipolar world'. The Pussy Riot propaganda. Nonsense. The 'anti-Gay' law. Nonsense. The 'invasion' of Crimea. Nonsense.

Of one thing you can be sure. Whenever the western media launch a crusade. They are up to no good.

[Pakboong]

Putin is doing exactly what I would do in his position so it is difficult for me to fault him. But, I don't like him.

He is far more likeable than the bought and paid for scoundrels in Washington.

The extent to which people swallow, then re-gurgitate, this anti-Putin nonsense is breathtaking.

Q. Do you agree the media and politicians lied about Iraq WMDs and that this required collusion on a massive scale?

A. Yes

Q. Isn't it fair to say the media campaign was a psychological operation, designed to 'manufacture consent' for war?

A. I suppose so.

So why on earth, after seeing this system operate in the same way, time and again, do ordinary, decent people keep believing they are being told the truth?

Every speech I have seen by Putin and Lavrov has been lucid, insightful and intelligent. If I never picked up a western rag or watched TV, I would see Putin as the saviour of the west, not its enemy. He has restored the Church in Russia. Tossed or neutered the Zionist oligarchs, saved Russia from the disaster that was Yeltsin and has warned the world about the dangers of a 'unipolar world'. The Pussy Riot propaganda. Nonsense. The 'anti-Gay' law. Nonsense. The 'invasion' of Crimea. Nonsense.

Of one thing you can be sure. Whenever the western media launch a crusade. They are up to no good.

the single biggest mistake an intelligence analyst can make, is factoring in his own patriotism.

Edited February 21, 2015 by Pakboong

[Scott]

A post with an improper spelling of a politician's name has been removed. Attempts to humorously spell the names of political figures is off-topic and inflammatory. Please use the proper spelling.

[Publicus]

Putin is confident Nato will do nothing to stop him in Ukraine and when he's finished with Ukraine, which should be late spring or early summer, the Baltics are next. Putin knows he can talk nuclear weapons talk and that his propagandists at internet forums globally are already promoting the line of a war occurring if Putin does not have his way, and that Putin is not going to cave.

This is the kind of madness among the European states to include Russia that led to the Great European War in 1914 and to its extension war that began in 1939 (in Europe). Putin knows it and he knows the Nato countries are too rational and mortified over war and now nuclear weapons to stop him. This means the EU countries are the weak link in Nato, not the United States.

Nato governments however have an economic and financial nuclear option that is the SWIFT electronic banking system and this is what Putin fears most. The SWIFT system facilitates global banking to the tune of $6 Trillion a day. SWIFT is based in Belgium so it is subject to EU laws...in 2012 the privately owned and operated SWIFT system had to sever Iran from SWIFT at the order of the European Commission, to include the Iran central bank. Shortly after the ayatollahs went to the negotiating table because they needed a deal asap that reinstates Iran into SWIFT.

The European Parliament has voted overwhelmingly to ask the EU member states, all of whose leaders sit as the European Commission, to sever Russia from SWIFT, a request that remains pending. Putin and the oligarchs well know the sanctions imposed to date and any other sanctions that might be imposed are peanuts compared to Russia being excluded from SWIFT. It is not disputed anywhere to include in Moscow that excluding Russia from SWIFT would swiftly produce a result to the Russian financial system and its economy that would range from disastrous to catastrophic.

Excluding Russia from SWIFT is considered the proxy nuclear option for the Nato member governments so it has been held in reserve. But excluding Russia from SWIFT has always been on the table as the Nato strategic trump card.

A super-serious PM Dmitry Medvedev said when the EU Parliament voted to eject Russia from SWIFT that, if Russia were ejected from SWIFT, its response would be "unlimited." He and others around Putin said the Russian ambassador in Washington would return to Russia and the US ambassador in Moscow would return to the US. That all relations with the US and the other Nato governments would cease, collapse, end.

If Nato unleashes the SWIFT financial mushroom cloud across Russia it may provoke Putin to move against the Baltic states. If Nato waits on SWIFT to see what Putin might or might not do, he will move against the Baltic states. Then Nato will have to drop the SWIFT financial and economics bomb.

Either way, Putin or some other people in and near the Kremlin will need to step in to stop the dominoes swiftly falling. Throughout the Cold War the Russian and the US managed to avoid and prevent armageddon. One year after Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev started the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 that went to the brink of nuclear war with the United States he was deposed in a putsch that put some very boring leaders at the top.

As wild as the Russians could be back then, they appreciated what pressing the red buttons would mean. Let's hope the Russian elites of the present haven't lost their touch in such matters as changing the guy at the top, Putin.

[Publicus]

Putin is doing exactly what I would do in his position so it is difficult for me to fault him. But, I don't like him.

He is far more likeable than the bought and paid for scoundrels in Washington.

The extent to which people swallow, then re-gurgitate, this anti-Putin nonsense is breathtaking.

Q. Do you agree the media and politicians lied about Iraq WMDs and that this required collusion on a massive scale?

A. Yes

Q. Isn't it fair to say the media campaign was a psychological operation, designed to 'manufacture consent' for war?

A. I suppose so.

So why on earth, after seeing this system operate in the same way, time and again, do ordinary, decent people keep believing they are being told the truth?

Every speech I have seen by Putin and Lavrov has been lucid, insightful and intelligent. If I never picked up a western rag or watched TV, I would see Putin as the saviour of the west, not its enemy. He has restored the Church in Russia. Tossed or neutered the Zionist oligarchs, saved Russia from the disaster that was Yeltsin and has warned the world about the dangers of a 'unipolar world'. The Pussy Riot propaganda. Nonsense. The 'anti-Gay' law. Nonsense. The 'invasion' of Crimea. Nonsense.

Of one thing you can be sure. Whenever the western media launch a crusade. They are up to no good.

the single biggest mistake an intelligence analyst can make, is factoring in his own patriotism.

Or his own plagerism

And the news he creates and disseminates....

Vlad has already created a large Butcher's Bill in both Ukraine and Russia

[BKKBobby]

It is a machismo thing. The only value Ukraine has is a pipeline path and now that Crimea is no longer part of it, the communists now have a good sea port. (Yes, they are still communists, they only dozed off for 20 years).

Putin is filthy rich. His and a lot of other politicans communist past has more to do with opportunism.

[F430murci]

Hello? If true, someone better get the heck out of Russia quickly.

----------

Russia's roadmap for annexing eastern Ukraine 'leaked from Vladimir Putin's office'

. . .

Moscow has been planning to annex parts of Ukraine for more than 12 months, according to sensational claims made in a Russian newspaper.

Vladimir Putins office reportedly compiled a detailed roadmap of how a "pro-Russian drift" could allow it to seize Crimea and some eastern provinces, just a few weeks prior to the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych and the start of the Ukrainian crisis.

According to a document allegedly leaked to the Novaya Gazeta newspaper, Russia had identified Mr Yanukovych as politically bankrupt, and outlined a plan by which a coup would set in motion events ultimately leading to Russian expansion.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russias-roadmap-for-annexing-eastern-ukraine-leaked-from-vladimir-putins-office-10069203.html