Thai economy posts weakest growth for three years

[Lite Beer]

Thai economy posts weakest growth for three years
Bangkok, Thaïlande | AFP

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's economy slowed sharply in 2014 to grow at its slowest pace for three years, as political turmoil engulfing the kingdom compounded a fall in agricultural prices and waning exports.


Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.7 percent last year, well down from the 2.9 percent recorded in 2013, the the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said in a statement on Monday.


The figure is the weakest since 0.1 percent in 2011, when the country was battered by devastating floods.


Growth was widely expected to take a battering from months of political unrest that damaged tourist arrivals, slowed foreign investment and paralysed government spending before the army seized power in May vowing to restore peace and put zip to the economy.


However, there were some good signs as fourth-quarter growth came in at 2.3 percent on a year-on-year basis, and 0.6 percent on the previous quarter, according to the board.


"The expansion of GDP in this quarter was due to an upturn in the non-agricultural sector," a rise in domestic and external demand and greater investment, the board added.


Over the year, Thailand's key agricultural sectors -- including rice and rubber -- struggled with falling global prices, curbing the amount of crops produced and taking money out of Thais' pockets.


The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes.


But the latest figures will heap pressure on the leaders, who have vowed to curb subsidies to agriculture and called on Thais to wean themselves of credit. Thailand is one of Southeast Asia's most indebted kingdoms.


The troubles for the once buoyant economy comes as regional rivals Indonesia and the Philippines pull ahead.


"The Thai economy should gain a firmer footing in the coming quarters, but growth is still likely to disappoint by past standards," Capital Economics said in a briefing note.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2015-02-16

[clockman]

They reap what they sow!

[kalbo123]

The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes.

Wasn't this all bad a few month's ago? When the previous government tried to do this?

[SoFarAndNear]

The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes.

Wasn't this all bad a few month's ago? When the previous government tried to do this?

You are probably western. Western people don't understand thai situation.

[webfact]

Growth falls to lowest since 2011



BANGKOK: -- The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) today revealed the latest economic figures in 2014 showing the country's economic growth falling to its lowest record in three years.

Political unrest in the first half and falling prices of key crops and falling exports were attributed as factors to the fall.

NESDB said gross domestic product rose 0.7% last year, the slowest pace since 2011 of 0.1 per cent when the country was battered by devastating floods, and down from the 2.9 per cent recorded in 2013.

However, there were some good signs as fourth quarter growth came in at 2.3 per cent on a year-on-year basis, and 0.6 per cent on the previous quarter.

The expansion of GDP in this quarter was due to an upturn in the non-farming sector, a rise in domestic and external demand and greater investment, it said.

Consumption expanded 2.4% last quarter from a year earlier, compared with 1.8% in the previous three month period, while investment climbed 3.2% from 2.9%

The NESDB maintained its 2015 growth at 3.5% to 4.5% while cutting its export growth estimate to 3.5% from 4%.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/growth-falls-lowest-since-2011


-- Thai PBS 2015-02-16

[MrPerfect]

Way to go Generals, you bunch of Thaksin wannabes

[ldiablo]

No surprise there.

[Briggsy]

All the old codgers who come on here moaning about the exchange rate may have something to cheer. Growth drops, interest rate may be lowered to promote investment, value of baht drops, codgers happy.

[Old Man River]

Way to go Generals, you bunch of Thaksin wannabes

The reasons are low household consumption and low export rate. The high household debt levels and low exports have nothing to do with the generals. This all started before.

[rickirs]

"The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes."

The Junta has vowed, promised, planned, etc. but consistantly FAILED such stimulus. The business sector as late as this month has called on the Junta to make "massive" government investment in Thailand's infrastructure immediately.

Yet in some alternate universe, just this week the Junta was lauded for its efforts to achieve GDP growth: "Thailand’s increase in government spending is helping to accelerate economic growth in 2015. ... Economic growth is expected to increase 2-3% in the first quarter of 2015."

The government has declared a victory of sorts and no longer feels compelled to make "further" economic stimulus - Deputy Prime Minister M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula: "the government will not be implementing a second round of economic stimulus package in light of indications that previous budgetary injections have made a significant impact on the country’s economy." There was never a first round!

Has the Junta come to believe its own propoganda with its "yes-men" cabinet? Or does it believe that ANY GDP growth rate is a success?

When considering a GDP growth rate less than 2% is deflation, the Thai economy is now on the precipice of a depression. It is time for the Thai business sector to rethink the value of this Junta-led government and put aside their political differences to save the nation's economic security, to save the Thai Peoples.

.

[Thai at Heart]

Of course, all assisted by keeping those pesky foreigners on their feet by talking about messing with the fdii rules

[rubl]

The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes.

Wasn't this all bad a few month's ago? When the previous government tried to do this?

You are probably western. Western people don't understand thai situation.

Some only read headlines and think that's enough to know a topic.

Here we have parts of previous plans, but with a completely different financing means. No 2.2 trillion Baht now to be paid back later, no now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget. Raises the deficit, but makes it more transparent.

[trogers]

Another way to read this piece of news is debt creation is lowest in three years.

The rate household debts have climbed in the past would suggest much of economic growth came from spending credit, and not from any increase in productivity.

[konying]

Did i miss or not understand something?

Headline just today GDP grows 2.3% in last quarter of 2014http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/800838-thai-gdp-grows-23-percent-in-last-quarter-of-2014/

So what is happening again?

[rubl]

"The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes."

The Junta has vowed, promised, planned, etc. but consistantly FAILED such stimulus. The business sector as late as this month has called on the Junta to make "massive" government investment in Thailand's infrastructure immediately.

Yet in some alternate universe, just this week the Junta was lauded for its efforts to achieve GDP growth: "Thailand’s increase in government spending is helping to accelerate economic growth in 2015. ... Economic growth is expected to increase 2-3% in the first quarter of 2015."

The government has declared a victory of sorts and no longer feels compelled to make "further" economic stimulus - Deputy Prime Minister M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula: "the government will not be implementing a second round of economic stimulus package in light of indications that previous budgetary injections have made a significant impact on the country’s economy." There was never a first round!

Has the Junta come to believe its own propoganda with its "yes-men" cabinet? Or does it believe that ANY GDP growth rate is a success?

When considering a GDP growth rate less than 2% is deflation, the Thai economy is now on the precipice of a depression. It is time for the Thai business sector to rethink the value of this Junta-led government and put aside their political differences to save the nation's economic security, to save the Thai Peoples.

It would seem you have come to believe your own cut-and-paste propaganda.

It's so much more difficult when you have produce price problems, export problems, no margins cause of the 'buffet' government before. Irresponsible 'self-financing' schemes which caused losses to be repaid, The need to control the deficit. Etc., etc.

BTW Thai business sector to put aside their differences? Is the Thai business sector interested or even aware of something like an 'economic security'? It might be that the Thai people should be saved, from big business that is, from people who thing they can do what they want because they're elected.

Sorry, reforms take time. Three more years lost by a Yingluck government interested only in big brother and spending tax payer money.

Edited February 16, 2015 by rubl

[tullynagardy]

but but but but but Thaksin!!!!!!!!!

[tullynagardy]

Did i miss or not understand something?

Headline just today GDP grows 2.3% in last quarter of 2014http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/800838-thai-gdp-grows-23-percent-in-last-quarter-of-2014/

So what is happening again?

Have a look at who said the economy was growing - junta propaganda, nothing more.

As has been said above the complete lack of spending by the junta is baffling and now seriously damaging an already weak economy.

[smutcakes]

The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes.

Wasn't this all bad a few month's ago? When the previous government tried to do this?

You are probably western. Western people don't understand thai situation.

Some only read headlines and think that's enough to know a topic.

Here we have parts of previous plans, but with a completely different financing means. No 2.2 trillion Baht now to be paid back later, no now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget. Raises the deficit, but makes it more transparent.

Are you sure about this Rubl? I would be interested to look at the budget you are extrapolating your data from? I would also be interested to see where the previous Government were going to get 2.2 trillion up front.

Isn't the cost even more than 2.2 trillion now despite the '40% Thaksin tax'?

[soalbundy]

All the old codgers who come on here moaning about the exchange rate may have something to cheer. Growth drops, interest rate may be lowered to promote investment, value of baht drops, codgers happy.

As you are now i was once, as i am now so will you be one day.

[soalbundy]

The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes.

Wasn't this all bad a few month's ago? When the previous government tried to do this?

You are probably western. Western people don't understand thai situation.

Some only read headlines and think that's enough to know a topic.

Here we have parts of previous plans, but with a completely different financing means. No 2.2 trillion Baht now to be paid back later, no now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget. Raises the deficit, but makes it more transparent.

Are you sure about this Rubl? I would be interested to look at the budget you are extrapolating your data from? I would also be interested to see where the previous Government were going to get 2.2 trillion up front.

Isn't the cost even more than 2.2 trillion now despite the '40% Thaksin tax'?

The PM's wife is going to play bingo.

[soalbundy]

Another way to read this piece of news is debt creation is lowest in three years.

The rate household debts have climbed in the past would suggest much of economic growth came from spending credit, and not from any increase in productivity.

Rather like the UK and the US then.

[trogers]

Another way to read this piece of news is debt creation is lowest in three years.

The rate household debts have climbed in the past would suggest much of economic growth came from spending credit, and not from any increase in productivity.

Rather like the UK and the US then.

Bingo. And the US is attempting to increase more debts into households through their QEs.

Some posers here are urging the Thai government to increase govt debts to boost the economy.

No one wants to identify and correct faults in the economic structure to increase productivity and competitiveness, the two main prime factors for real lasting growth.

[rubl]

The ruling junta has vowed to pump billions of dollars into the economy, mainly through long-planned infrastructure schemes.

Wasn't this all bad a few month's ago? When the previous government tried to do this?

You are probably western. Western people don't understand thai situation.

Some only read headlines and think that's enough to know a topic.

Here we have parts of previous plans, but with a completely different financing means. No 2.2 trillion Baht now to be paid back later, no now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget. Raises the deficit, but makes it more transparent.

Are you sure about this Rubl? I would be interested to look at the budget you are extrapolating your data from? I would also be interested to see where the previous Government were going to get 2.2 trillion up front.

Isn't the cost even more than 2.2 trillion now despite the '40% Thaksin tax'?

Yes I'm sure. As for info, do some searching yourself.

As for extrapolation, no such thing.

The 2.2 trillion Baht the Yingluck government wanted to borrow, just read their brochure. Only took 50 years to repay it was estimated.

As for the "40% Thaksin tax", no idea what you mean. Even Ms. Yingluck only dared a blanket amnesty bill, but not a 40% tax for Thaksin one.

In the mean time, even the massive rail projects seem to stall a bit. With limited funds the government has no option but to go for co-investment and the Thai possibilities for investment are limited. Not all Yingluck's fault of course, also those pesky foreign countries which can't keep their economy in order to allow them to buy big from Thailand.

[tonbridgebrit]

Let's say they raise taxes considerably from Thais who are in the richest 3 or 5%, and they use this money to carry out policies that will benefit the poorest half of Thailand.

Surely, even if economic growth is only 1.5% per year, well, lots of people would still be better off. It's only 3 or 5% who are going to be angry.

[smutcakes]

Some only read headlines and think that's enough to know a topic.

Here we have parts of previous plans, but with a completely different financing means. No 2.2 trillion Baht now to be paid back later, no now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget. Raises the deficit, but makes it more transparent.

Are you sure about this Rubl? I would be interested to look at the budget you are extrapolating your data from? I would also be interested to see where the previous Government were going to get 2.2 trillion up front.

Isn't the cost even more than 2.2 trillion now despite the '40% Thaksin tax'?

Yes I'm sure. As for info, do some searching yourself.

As for extrapolation, no such thing.

The 2.2 trillion Baht the Yingluck government wanted to borrow, just read their brochure. Only took 50 years to repay it was estimated.

As for the "40% Thaksin tax", no idea what you mean. Even Ms. Yingluck only dared a blanket amnesty bill, but not a 40% tax for Thaksin one.

In the mean time, even the massive rail projects seem to stall a bit. With limited funds the government has no option but to go for co-investment and the Thai possibilities for investment are limited. Not all Yingluck's fault of course, also those pesky foreign countries which can't keep their economy in order to allow them to buy big from Thailand.

So to be clear, of the points you made:

"now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget" You cannot back that up? I would of thought making such a firm statement that you would have those details readily available.

"No 2.2 trillion Baht now" You cannot show any evidence that the 2.2 trillion was to be paid in one go?

So you cannot back up either of your two points you made?

As an aside whether something is paid back over 1 year or 50 years it does not make one better than the other, surely it all depends on performance, loan agreements, interest rates etc. Surely to use the 50 year pay back period as a negative means you are party to fairly comprehensive information on the agreements?

[Briggsy]

All the old codgers who come on here moaning about the exchange rate may have something to cheer. Growth drops, interest rate may be lowered to promote investment, value of baht drops, codgers happy.

As you are now i was once, as i am now so will you be one day.

Indeed one day I will be old but will I be moaning. I hope not. We will see.

[Time Traveller]

Let's say they raise taxes considerably from Thais who are in the richest 3 or 5%, and they use this money to carry out policies that will benefit the poorest half of Thailand.

Surely, even if economic growth is only 1.5% per year, well, lots of people would still be better off. It's only 3 or 5% who are going to be angry.

The people that control the country and make the decisions about taxes ARE the richest 3% or 5%.

[eliotness]

Let's say they raise taxes considerably from Thais who are in the richest 3 or 5%, and they use this money to carry out policies that will benefit the poorest half of Thailand.

Surely, even if economic growth is only 1.5% per year, well, lots of people would still be better off. It's only 3 or 5% who are going to be angry.

Yeah but it's that 3 to 5% that seem to have all the power.

[Lupatria]

I miss the first ads in the classified section like:

Trade top brass epaulettes, medals, and jumper wings for tuition in basic economy and business strategies...

[Thai at Heart]

Let's say they raise taxes considerably from Thais who are in the richest 3 or 5%, and they use this money to carry out policies that will benefit the poorest half of Thailand.

Surely, even if economic growth is only 1.5% per year, well, lots of people would still be better off. It's only 3 or 5% who are going to be angry.

Yeah but it's that 3 to 5% that seem to have all the power.

Just look at their pitiful attempts to tax land and inheritances. Yeah, lets make an inheritance tax applicable to only those with only 50mn. What world are they living in.....?