AP Analysis: In fractured Israel, all electoral bets are off

[Lite Beer]

AP Analysis: In fractured Israel, all electoral bets are off
By DAN PERRY

JERUSALEM (AP) — Deeply divided and foul of mood, Israelis are headed toward what seems like a referendum on their long-serving, silver-tongued prime minister, the hard-line Benjamin Netanyahu.

But with so many of them having despaired of peace talks with the Palestinians, the focus is mostly on Netanyahu's personality, his expense scandals and the soaring cost of living.

And as no candidate is likely to win big in the wild jumble of Israel's political landscape, the outcome of the March 17 election could well be a joint government between Netanyahu and his moderate challenger Isaac Herzog. It's an irony, because the animosities are overwhelming.

Much has changed in the world since Netanyahu first became prime minister in 1996, but Israel remains stuck with the question of what to do with the highly strategic, biblically resonant, Palestinian-populated lands it captured almost a half-century ago.

Israelis know it is their existential issue, but it seems almost too complex for a democracy. After decades of failed peace talks under every sort of government, the whole festering thing has become such a vexation that politicians seem to fear it, and voters look away.

When he called the early election in November, Netanyahu seemed a shoo-in, but somewhere things went wrong. Notorious around the world for American-accented eloquence in the service of a tough stance, he is extraordinarily divisive at home, where he has been prime minister for the past six years, and for nine in total.

His speech last week before the U.S. Congress, urging a tighter deal than he believes is brewing on Iran's nuclear program, was typical: He impressed some Israelis, while infuriating others who sensed a political ploy.

Polls show his nationalist Likud Party running slightly behind Herzog's Labor Party, rebranded the Zionist Union in a bid for nationalist votes. There are scenarios in which Herzog — improbably mild-mannered in a high-decibel land — becomes prime minister. And that would change the music: Herzog is a conciliator genuinely interested in ending the occupation of lands captured in the 1967 war.

Some things to watch for:

___

ISRAEL IS NEARLY UNGOVERNABLE

Despite its reputation for plucky unity, the country is badly fragmented — and that's reflected in parliament under the proportional representation system.

Combined, the two big parties get far less than half the vote. Then one finds a nationalist party appealing to Russian speakers, another for secular liberals and two for the squeezed middle class. A united list represents the one-fifth of citizens who are Arabs and is itself divided between communist, nationalist and Islamist factions. There are four religious parties, for Jews of European versus Middle Eastern descent and for varying degrees of nationalism.

The schisms are real, reflecting a society so diverse that at times it seems to be flying apart. The discourse is of one's rival destroying the country, through stupidity or evil. A TV debate between the main candidates other than Netanyahu and Herzog quickly degenerated into shouted accusations of fascism, criminality and treason.

___

A KINGMAKER COMES

By dint of necessity, this constellation has nonetheless coalesced over the years into rival leftist and rightist blocs: the Arab parties aligned with the dovish left, and the religious with the nationalistic right. If either wins 61 seats combined, its main party governs.

But for the first time in decades, there is a new party that seems genuinely non-aligned: Kulanu, led by Moshe Kahlon, a working-class Likud breakaway of Libyan Jewish descent who became popular for reducing mobile phone costs in previous governments. He says he will go with whichever side makes him finance minister — as both almost certainly would — and seeks to reduce the cost of living. He appears to care little about the Palestinian issue.

Every recent poll shows him holding the balance of power, with about 10 seats while the blocs split the rest.

___

THE RELUCTANT RIGHT

The winning bloc often rules in alliance with parts of the other bloc. Such coalitions widen the base and win points for moderation and inclusiveness. They are also paralyzed by disagreement and tend to collapse of their internal contradictions, as Netanyahu's did four months ago.

Likud seems especially reluctant to rule on its own, almost always preferring a grand coalition with Labor or centrist parties rather than one with just its nationalist and religious allies. At least in part, that looks like an admission that truly nationalist policies — such as annexations in the West Bank — would so offend the world and provoke the Palestinians as to bring ruin.

The right sees the West Bank as the heartland of biblical Israel and also a place of immense strategic value, since Israel without it is reduced at its narrowest point to about 10 miles (15 kilometers) wide. The left's key argument is that permanent control of millions more Arabs would destroy Israel as a Jewish-majority state.

The right has developed a majority among Israel's Jews. But it is also hugely unpopular among the nation's still-powerful elites, including academic figures, business leaders and — to a striking degree — the security establishment. The 2012 documentary "The Gatekeepers," presenting a highly critical view of the West Bank occupation, featured every one of the six then-living heads of the Shin Bet secret service, entrusted with securing that very occupation. The keynote speech against Netanyahu at the main opposition rally last week was by Meir Dagan, who led the Mossad intelligence agency for much of Netanyahu's term. A predecessor, Shabtai Shavit, has been similarly critical, as have recent heads of the military.

So great is the pressure on the right that successive Likud leaders have abruptly changed course or even crossed the line, including then-prime ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert. Some predicted the same for Netanyahu, who in 2009 accepted the principle of Palestinian statehood, appearing to renounce all he had once stood for; but actions did not follow, and the theory that he was just pretending so as to confuse his critics gains currency by the day.

___

IMPOSSIBLE PEACE?

Even among proponents of a West Bank pullout, the talk is of saving Israel demographically as a Jewish-majority state rather than of making peace. Many yearn for unilateral moves, having given up on the possibility of a negotiated deal after all these years.

Israel might conceivably agree to the near-total West Bank pullout the Palestinians seek; previous governments have. The Palestinians may agree to drop the demand that refugees' descendants be allowed to move to Israel, potentially by the millions. But the real conundrum is Jerusalem, where a division of the intertwined holy city along ethnic lines would lead to perhaps the world's most complicated map, a tinderbox extraordinaire.

Providing the worst of precedents is Gaza, the other part of the would-be Palestinian state, on Israel's southern flank. Israel pulled out its soldiers and settlers in 2005 and handed control to the Palestinian autonomy government of moderate President Mahmoud Abbas — a relic of interim agreements from the pre-Netanyahu 1990s. But Hamas militants swiftly seized the strip and have been blockaded by Israel; they regularly fire rockets at Israeli towns, and three wars have been fought.

Then there are security threats to Israel from elsewhere in the region: Iran, believed to be seeking an atomic bomb; its proxy Hezbollah, with a forest of missiles pointed at Israel from Lebanon; Islamic State jihadis rampaging in nearby countries; al-Qaida radicals on the border with a disintegrating, still-hostile Syria.

Given the widespread pessimism, Herzog subtly dodges the peace issue, perhaps for fear of appearing naive.

___

UNITY GOVERNMENT POSSIBLE

With the electorate confused and fractured and no clear path forward on the key issues, and with neither Netanyahu nor Herzog likely to win a convincing majority, a plausible outcome has their parties banding together. They may also agree to rotate as prime minister in such an arrangement, with the first turn going to whoever has the stronger parliamentary hand.

Such has already happened in 1984. Labor's Shimon Peres and Likud's Yitzhak Shamir lived in uneasy coexistence and switched jobs halfway through. A few things got done. But the main issue, then as now, was the West Bank; Peres negotiated over it with Jordan, only to see his peace plans scuttled by the skeptical Shamir. Shortly thereafter the first Palestinian uprising began.

Many fear another one is coming, even as Israelis focus on the price of cottage cheese.

-- (c) Associated Press 2015-03-15

[Seastallion]

" a plausible outcome has their parties banding together. "

Netanyahu has ruled that out.

" Given the widespread pessimism, Herzog subtly dodges the peace issue, "

Herzog has stated he wants a deal.

What is this opinion piece on about?

[ezzra]

Elections in Israel akin to a dozen monkeys in a barrel all vying for the top spot.. more convoluted and dangerous than a vipers' pit, and as truthful and honest as Ali Bubba and his 40 thieves..... Promises and more promises, very little comes to fruition there, such a small country, such defamations and bipartisanism, not for nothing it been said that the Israelis are their biggest enemies....

[Seastallion]

Elections in Israel akin to a dozen monkeys in a barrel all vying for the top spot.. more convoluted and dangerous than a vipers' pit, and as truthful and honest as Ali Bubba and his 40 thieves..... Promises and more promises, very little comes to fruition there, such a small country, such defamations and bipartisanism, not for nothing it been said that the Israelis are their biggest enemies....

I'm impressed with your summation. I wouldn't have put it quite like that for fear of being labeled antisemite, but you have a free pass as your inclinations are pro-Israeli. (Fiddy Cent can say the N word while Brad Pitt can't).

Indeed they are their own worst enemy. A bit of solidarity would have seen them either succeed in the right wing agenda (which, ironically would have seen Israel ostracised) or a peace deal being accomplished....so solidarity (of the right sort) would see Israelis enjoying peace and prosperity, albeit with high-density living within their borders. But would you rather live in peace in an apartment, or in fear with a lawn?

I think Israelis are waking up. They are starting to see that the right wing Zionists have been leading them into fear and uncertainty. They are starting to realise that an equitable two-state solution is the only way a Jewish state will survive.

I hope, for Israel's and Jews in general's sake that the electorate puts Herzog in power, with him aligning with left-wing Arab parties and other leftists, and that from that coalition a workable peace deal is accomplished.

It's in everybody's interest, except those that want to take God's word of a promised land to heart despite the suffering of the people.

[Asiantravel]

Elections in Israel akin to a dozen monkeys in a barrel all vying for the top spot.. more convoluted and dangerous than a vipers' pit, and as truthful and honest as Ali Bubba and his 40 thieves..... Promises and more promises, very little comes to fruition there, such a small country, such defamations and bipartisanism, not for nothing it been said that the Israelis are their biggest enemies....

Yes the world cannot afford a nuclear armed Israel

Oh wait !.................

[Chicog]

Elections in Israel akin to a dozen monkeys in a barrel all vying for the top spot.. more convoluted and dangerous than a vipers' pit, and as truthful and honest as Ali Bubba and his 40 thieves..... Promises and more promises, very little comes to fruition there, such a small country, such defamations and bipartisanism, not for nothing it been said that the Israelis are their biggest enemies....

I'm impressed with your summation. I wouldn't have put it quite like that for fear of being labeled antisemite, but you have a free pass as your inclinations are pro-Israeli. (Fiddy Cent can say the N word while Brad Pitt can't).

Indeed they are their own worst enemy. A bit of solidarity would have seen them either succeed in the right wing agenda (which, ironically would have seen Israel ostracised) or a peace deal being accomplished....so solidarity (of the right sort) would see Israelis enjoying peace and prosperity, albeit with high-density living within their borders. But would you rather live in peace in an apartment, or in fear with a lawn?

I think Israelis are waking up. They are starting to see that the right wing Zionists have been leading them into fear and uncertainty. They are starting to realise that an equitable two-state solution is the only way a Jewish state will survive.

I hope, for Israel's and Jews in general's sake that the electorate puts Herzog in power, with him aligning with left-wing Arab parties and other leftists, and that from that coalition a workable peace deal is accomplished.

It's in everybody's interest, except those that want to take God's word of a promised land to heart despite the suffering of the people.

Orthodox Jews do not even believe there should be a Jewish state. Apparently the Torah says no.

The only time that the People of Israel were permitted to have a state was two thousand years ago when the glory of the creator was upon us, and likewise in the future when the glory of the creator will once more be revealed, and the whole world will serve Him, then He Himself (without any human effort or force of arms) will grant us a kingdom founded on Divine Service.

http://www.nkusa.org/AboutUs/Zionism/opposition.cfm

[Lissos]

They are starting to realise that an equitable two-state solution is the only way a Jewish state will survive.

I suggest this is just the belief of someone looking at Israel and its elections through a filter of their own geopolitical agenda, because my experience at least of Israelis is that the whole issue with grumbling regional Arabs is increasingly seen as a side show which has less importance and relevance to their daily lives with each passing year. Other pressing issues grab their attention far more, just as more and more of us here in the west increasingly feel that our own should be helped first. Overall it seems to be viewed domestically in Israel as something that cannot be magically solved, but a thorn that will always be there in some form or another which just has be to managed and tended to every so often when things start to go septic. Israelis seem practiclaly resigned to that, as they are practical people. After all, the article above talks about great interest in a particular canditate because he was lowering mobile phone charges, far more than any feeling of - "Hey, our quality of life is going down the pan. I guess this will be answered by giving the Arabs everything they ever demanded". As in much of the world, the core concerns of people are jobs, affordable housing, cheap food and fuel.

[Seastallion]

They are starting to realise that an equitable two-state solution is the only way a Jewish state will survive.

I suggest this is just the belief of someone looking at Israel and its elections through a filter of their own geopolitical agenda, because my experience at least of Israelis is that the whole issue with grumbling regional Arabs is increasingly seen as a side show which has less importance and relevance to their daily lives with each passing year. Other pressing issues grab their attention far more, just as more and more of us here in the west increasingly feel that our own should be helped first. Overall it seems to be viewed domestically in Israel as something that cannot be magically solved, but a thorn that will always be there in some form or another which just has be to managed and tended to every so often when things start to go septic. Israelis seem practiclaly resigned to that, as they are practical people. After all, the article above talks about great interest in a particular canditate because he was lowering mobile phone charges, far more than any feeling of - "Hey, our quality of life is going down the pan. I guess this will be answered by giving the Arabs everything they ever demanded". As in much of the world, the core concerns of people are jobs, affordable housing, cheap food and fuel.

I think you make reasonable points. The OP alluded to the same with regard to the price of cottage cheese.

But if that is so, that Israelis just don't really care about peace, then what is the high indignation at ineffectual rockets, what is the "we're scared to sleep in our beds for fear that the sirens might go off", what is the justification for bombarding a heavily populated city resulting in thousands of civilian deaths?

Are you suggesting that the status quo with regard to the IDF being able to wreak fiftyfold revenge is somehow satisfactory to the electorate? As long as they can afford cottage cheese?

[Lissos]

But if that is so, that Israelis just don't really care about peace, then.....................

Israelis care about peace, their own peace first and foremost and that will mean tending to their own immediate concerns.

It is a straight honesty that more than a few of us here in the west probably envy more than we'd ever care to admit.

We're somehow made to feel guilty if we're not taking on board the rest of the world's problems.

I doubt the average Palestinians is sitting around worrying about Israeli well being. Generally people focus on gaining those small satisfactions each day, not obsessing about the big overwhelming issues that surround them. I saw more people using smartphones and all the social media platforms you can imagine, and enjoying delectable ice creams in places like Nablus and Ramallah than grinding themselves about the bigger issues that international activists do. In regard to fears, we all know that the security rhetoric your refer to, applies more to Israelis in certain locations of the country more than it does in other locations in the country, so the threat is very real and present for some and very distant for others.

[dexterm]

It may not be prominent in either wing of politics in the forthcoming election, but the elephant in the room...peace with the Palestinians..is the key to Israel’s whole future.

Much of the money spent on defence together with US subsidies could be spent on housing, schools hospitals, and helping to improve the daily lives of Israelis. And that would just be the tip of the iceberg... trade agreements with other Arab states, increased tourism in a safe secure Israel within recognized borders, and Tel Aviv the financial and technological hub of the entire Middle East. BDS would end and Israel would be the darling of the EU. It wouldn't be sanctions, it would be an invitation to join.

One day, maybe in my lifetime, all Jews Christians and Muslims will live together in a country called Israel/Palestine/Israelistine. It just happens over time through natural transmigrations between neighboring countries at peace with each other.

Israelis can do it the easy way or the hard way.

The easy way, is a just 2 state solution, which will actually preserve an Israel with a Jewish character. That’s the ZU platform.

Or the hard way.. right wing wins election, become more extremist, attempt ethnic cleansing under guise of compulsory swearing allegiance to the Jewish State of Israel under an increased apartheid situation in the West Bank as settlements expand. More shaming and ostracism of Israel on social and international media. EU sanctions..Israel brought to its financial knees. Capitulates and makes Palestinians equal citizens.

The game is up. In the 21^st century you cannot continue to occupy another people for 48 years. Zionists left their run at colonialism about 100 years too late.

I hope the ZU win.. a greater chance of negotiating a Palestinian peace with them than Netanyahu’s more of same same conflict management.

But it really doesn't matter. If the right wins, they will just shoot themselves in the foot. It will be the same result of an Israelistine one day..just more pain for everyone in getting there.

This is a watershed moment for Israel.

Edited March 15, 2015 by dexterm

[dexterm]

But if that is so, that Israelis just don't really care about peace, then.....................

Israelis care about peace, their own peace first and foremost and that will mean tending to their own immediate concerns.

It is a straight honesty that more than a few of us here in the west probably envy more than we'd ever care to admit.

We're somehow made to feel guilty if we're not taking on board the rest of the world's problems.

I doubt the average Palestinians is sitting around worrying about Israeli well being. Generally people focus on gaining those small satisfactions each day, not obsessing about the big overwhelming issues that surround them. I saw more people using smartphones and all the social media platforms you can imagine, and enjoying delectable ice creams in places like Nablus and Ramallah than grinding themselves about the bigger issues that international activists do. In regard to fears, we all know that the security rhetoric your refer to, applies more to Israelis in certain locations of the country more than it does in other locations in the country, so the threat is very real and present for some and very distant for others.

Israelis care about peace, their own peace first

Israel will only have peace, when they make their enemies their friends.

I hope the Zionist Union win this election and they make a start on a just peace agreement.

[rambling]

But if that is so, that Israelis just don't really care about peace, then.....................

Israelis care about peace, their own peace first and foremost and that will mean tending to their own immediate concerns.

It is a straight honesty that more than a few of us here in the west probably envy more than we'd ever care to admit.

We're somehow made to feel guilty if we're not taking on board the rest of the world's problems.

I doubt the average Palestinians is sitting around worrying about Israeli well being. Generally people focus on gaining those small satisfactions each day, not obsessing about the big overwhelming issues that surround them. I saw more people using smartphones and all the social media platforms you can imagine, and enjoying delectable ice creams in places like Nablus and Ramallah than grinding themselves about the bigger issues that international activists do. In regard to fears, we all know that the security rhetoric your refer to, applies more to Israelis in certain locations of the country more than it does in other locations in the country, so the threat is very real and present for some and very distant for others.

Israelis care about peace, their own peace first

Israel will only have peace, when they make their enemies their friends.

I hope the Zionist Union win this election and they make a start on a just peace agreement.

I share your hope but let's not forget that a peace agreement may not depend entirely on who the Israeli prime minister is. Still, a start in the right direction is better than stagnation and the inevitable escalation.

[Lissos]

It may not be prominent in either wing of politics in the forthcoming election, but the elephant in the room...peace with the Palestinians..is the key to Israel’s whole future. Much of the money spent on defence together with US subsidies could be spent on housing, schools hospitals, and helping to improve the daily lives of Israelis. And that would just be the tip of the iceberg... trade agreements with other Arab states, increased tourism in a safe secure Israel within recognized borders, and Tel Aviv the financial and technological hub of the entire Middle East. BDS would end and Israel would be the darling of the EU.

Many of Israel's current problems are down to the global economic crash, not the conflict.

For this reason, this sales pitch that if Israel just accepts Arab demands everything will be fine and dandy, I'm not buying.

[rambling]

It may not be prominent in either wing of politics in the forthcoming election, but the elephant in the room...peace with the Palestinians..is the key to Israel’s whole future. Much of the money spent on defence together with US subsidies could be spent on housing, schools hospitals, and helping to improve the daily lives of Israelis. And that would just be the tip of the iceberg... trade agreements with other Arab states, increased tourism in a safe secure Israel within recognized borders, and Tel Aviv the financial and technological hub of the entire Middle East. BDS would end and Israel would be the darling of the EU.

Many of Israel's current problems are down to the global economic crash, not the conflict.

For this reason, this sales pitch that if Israel just accepts Arab demands everything will be fine and dandy, I'm not buying.

Actually Israel's economy came out of the global crash quite well for various reasons (mainly due to relatively tight controls over lending and banking). The problems it faces in the areas of housing, education system, healthcare etc. are due to mismanagement and neglect over many years and also an emphasis on reducing external debt instead of on investing in those areas. If you look at the figures, Israel has an external debt, as % of GDP, far below that of most OECD countries. Budget surplus has been going towards debt reduction while welfare and social services budgets were choked.

Btw military expenditure, while still quite large, has risen in $'s but have been going down steadily in %age terms due to increases in economic growth and tax collection.

[dexterm]

It may not be prominent in either wing of politics in the forthcoming election, but the elephant in the room...peace with the Palestinians..is the key to Israel’s whole future. Much of the money spent on defence together with US subsidies could be spent on housing, schools hospitals, and helping to improve the daily lives of Israelis. And that would just be the tip of the iceberg... trade agreements with other Arab states, increased tourism in a safe secure Israel within recognized borders, and Tel Aviv the financial and technological hub of the entire Middle East. BDS would end and Israel would be the darling of the EU.

Many of Israel's current problems are down to the global economic crash, not the conflict.

For this reason, this sales pitch that if Israel just accepts Arab demands everything will be fine and dandy, I'm not buying.

Not so. The global economic crash was 2008. US and other country's stock markets have been steadily rising since early 2009 for the last 7 years to record highs.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Edji+interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%2210y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

...while Israel is has been left behind weighed down by its defense spending and wars.

More of the same from Netanyahu leading to further isolation and possibly EU sanctions is not much of a business plan.

Edited March 15, 2015 by dexterm