Thai tourism rebound rise in spending expected to hike GDP by 3.5%

[webfact]

ECONOMIC
Tourism rebound rise in spending expected to hike GDP by 3.5%
Erich Parpart
The Nation


From left: Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce; Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries and of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking; and Boontuck Wungcharoen

BANGKOK: -- The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking still believes that gross domestic product can expand by 3.5 per cent this year, as the rebound of tourism and the expected increase in private and public spending in the second half should be able to compensate for the slump in exports.

The JSCCIB, comprising the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC), the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Thai Bankers' Association, represented the private sector at the meeting of the Joint Public Private Partnerships to fix the economy.

Exports, which account for 70 per cent of GDP, contracted by 6.14 per cent month on month to US$17.23 billion in February.

In the first two months, exports shrank by 4.82 per cent to $34.48 billion from the same period last year.

The JSCCIB yesterday lowered its export growth forecast from 3.5 per cent to "no more than 1 per cent", following Bank of Thailand's cut last month in its own forecast from 1 per cent to 0.8 per cent

The Thai National Shippers Council recently changed its export growth target to zero expansion in 2015.

"The expected increase in government spending on mega-projects in the third and fourth quarters and the expected increase in private investment via the increase of investment in the special economic zones along with the approved BoI (Board of Investment) projects from last year should be able to compensate for the slowdown in merchandise exports," said Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of both the JSCCIB and the FTI.

The BoI approved about Bt700 billion worth of projects last year and companies should begin construction this quarter. This should become more apparent next quarter.

The industry that is expected to do well this year, despite the current problem within the airline industry, is tourism, with at least 28 million visitors expected this year.

The JSCCIB has urged the government to keep up with its spending since disbursements only reached 43 per cent of budget last month.

Consumption in rural areas remained restrained because of the 50-per-cent retreat in crop prices, while bookings at the 36th Bangkok International Motor Show fell short of the 40,000 units target by almost half (around 25,000 units were booked).

This shows that domestic consumption is still constrained by the high level of household debt, he added.

Chamber chairman Isara Vongkusolkit said exports to the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) countries, especially to Vietnam, are still strong despite the overall decline.

Shipments to the region have edged up by 5 per cent year on year, he said.

Supant noted that exports of automobiles in the first two months were ahead year on year by 10 per cent.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Tourism-rebound-rise-in-spending-expected-to-hike--30257582.html


-- The Nation 2015-04-08

[noitom]

Continuous validation that the Thai sex trade sells.

[thesetat2013]

I hope that the Chamber of Commerce and all of those other agencies are not using TAT figures in estimating their increase in spending and buying here.

[laocowboy2]

Fantasy numbers as usual. Car sales are down because (a) some consumers at least have realized that incomes are going to be static at best while ( lenders have tightened up on their underwriting criteria after rapidly rising defaults in H2 2013 and 2014. Rural incomes are down because rubber and rice prices are down - something that is not going to change this year (or next). If farmer income is down, no new tractor or pick-up. And poor rubber and rice prices are part of the falling exports story along with a slowing China.

Tourism may grow - but probably by too little and too late to make up for low exports, low consumer demand and inability of the government to spend the investment part of the budget quickly enough. Guesstimate is that growth will be sub-3% this year - and possibly even sub-2%.

[ttthailand]

Better tell those Chinese to bring some extra money.

These Thai guys can say anything without accountability. And if the numbers don't increase are they going to resign or even say they were wrong, not a chance...

[ehs818]

"Counting the chickens before they are hatched" are they? Me thinks so!! Hahahaha

[ToddinChonburi]

These clowns have taken a page out of the Obama play book. The other day they were saying that the lifting of Marshal law has caused a boom in tourism. I wonder were they learned this bad behavior ?

[Strangebrew]

Hey don't need new airport hanger just park those 747's up the figures guys arse bet you could fit at least 2 side by side and still have room for 500,000 plus tourist.

[tonbridgebrit]

It's them Chinese tourists who are going to do it .......

[kotsak]

[madmitch]

If they want to see what a rebound in tourism looks like they should come to Phuket, where low-season has kicked in a month earlier than usual.

Figures have already shown that Chinese spending is well below spending by Westerners and it's the Chinese that are creating this so-called rebound, so where do these economic experts get their figures from?

The baht is too strong; anyone can see that. An over-strong currency is not good for the economy but it is good for the rich, who get more foreign currency in their overseas bank accounts. And we all know what's number one in importance in this country.

[JOC]

Please stop!!

Two prognoses in one day from Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck about the prosperous Disneyland!!

[Suffinator]

More wishful propaganda. Their sheer amount of BS puts a dairy farm to shame.

[ExPratt]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

If they want to see what a rebound in tourism looks like they should come to Phuket, where low-season has kicked in a month earlier than usual.

Figures have already shown that Chinese spending is well below spending by Westerners and it's the Chinese that are creating this so-called rebound, so where do these economic experts get their figures from?

The baht is too strong; anyone can see that. An over-strong currency is not good for the economy but it is good for the rich, who get more foreign currency in their overseas bank accounts. And we all know what's number one in importance in this country.

Same in Pattaya,, Ko Chang and Samui. I have not seen things so quiet in the 15 years I have been here. Seems like they are trying desperately to cover up the actuall tourist figures

[Shiver]

If I was bored with a lot of time, I'd like to compile a list of all these numbers coming out on a near daily basis and see if any sense can be made of the numbers.

The only sure thing is that "statistics are up".

[Fat Haggis]

But the astrologer told them it would be so!!

They will have more egg on their face then Humpty Dumpty but will then state it's a fashion accessory!!

Edited April 8, 2015 by Fat Haggis

[Alwyn]

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking still believes that gross domestic product can expand by 3.5 per cent this year.... Where do they get these numbers from? The UK is the strongest economy in Europe and its GDP was 2.8% for last year and that's the fastest since 2007

[goosifer]

I wonder if the jump in Chinese tourism is driving higher quality tourists out? The Chinese must presumably be pushing out other tourists, as they bulk book rooms which they share between several people. So the hotels might be ok. But then other tourists are put off by the rooms being harder to find at the right price, while the quality of their stay worsens because of the crowds and noise etc. So Thailand as a whole gaining only a marginal rise in revenue despite the big jump in numbers.

Edited April 8, 2015 by goosifer

[retsdon]

I wonder if the jump in Chinese tourism is driving higher quality tourists out? The Chinese must presumably be pushing out other tourists, as they bulk book rooms which they share between several people. So the hotels might be ok. But then other tourists are put off by the rooms being harder to find at the right price, while the quality of their stay worsens because of the crowds and noise etc. So Thailand as a whole gaining only a marginal rise in revenue despite the big jump in numbers.

'I wonder if the jump in Chines tourism is driving higher quality tourists out?

It's inevitable one would think.

[Fat Haggis]

The last thing a quality tourist wants is to be pushed and shoved out of the way by pavement deep Chinese tourists hocking their guts up and grogging their way down the road on their cheap as chips package deals.

Thailand. This is the market you aimed at because the Europeans opted to play it safe. So you reap what you sow don't blame anyone for your shortcomings and economic woes the blame game starts at your own reflections.

The Thai economy has lost billions since the coup took place, economists predict it won't get much better any time soon but the expert farangs here seem to know more about everything and everybody and are so wrapped up in the politics they see only what they want to see.

[ExPratt]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

I wonder if the jump in Chinese tourism is driving higher quality tourists out? The Chinese must presumably be pushing out other tourists, as they bulk book rooms which they share between several people. So the hotels might be ok. But then other tourists are put off by the rooms being harder to find at the right price, while the quality of their stay worsens because of the crowds and noise etc. So Thailand as a whole gaining only a marginal rise in revenue despite the big jump in numbers.

'I wonder if the jump in Chines tourism is driving higher quality tourists out?

It's inevitable one would think.

The Chinese will accept lower quality accommodation when compared to Farangs . So I believe Thailand's aging and empty condos will be put to good use accommodating the Chinese hoards

[cookee68]

here is wishing

[Srikcir]

Just seven days ago, "Sommai Phasee, the finance minister, admitted yesterday that the country’s economic growth projections will stand between 2 – 3%." The main reason for a lower forecast was that government disbursements have been delayed and household debt is worsening.

The JSCCIB claims that government disbursements reached 43% of budget last month. But Deputy Finance Minister Visut Srisuphan yesterday disclosed that in the first 3-4 months of the fiscal year only 30% of the budget was spent. And he further admitted that only 80% of the budget would be disbursed for the whole fiscal year - not 100%.

The JSCCIB has been the Junta's cheerleader for the economy. And seemingly whenever it makes an economic prediction, it is overly optimistic in backing the gpvernments efforts to improve the economy. I estimate Thailand's economic growth for 2015 will stand close to 2.5% while its ASEAN neighbors see 4-6% growth rates. It looks like the Junta did indeed make a difference for Thailand's economy.