Thai Commerce Ministry cuts 2015 export growth target to 1.2 percent

[webfact]

EXPORT
Commerce Ministry cuts 2015 export growth target to 1.2%
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation



BANGKOK: -- The Commerce Ministry yesterday officially slashed this year's export-growth target from 4 per cent to 1.2 per cent, for a total value of US$230.30 billion (Bt7.5 trillion). That translates to a loss in export value of about $6 billion from the previous projection of $236.67 billion.

However, the ministry and private-sector analysts share the hope that the export decline bottomed out in February, as March exports declined by only 4.45 per cent, compared with 6 per cent year on year in the previous month.

The ministry's lower target now is more in line with other economic agencies' growth projections, which range from 0-1.4 per cent.

Exports in March were valued at $18.88 billion, while imports dropped 5.89 per cent to $17.39 billion. Exports in the first quarter were down 4.69 per cent year on year to $53.36 billion, while imports dropped 6.43 per cent to $51.93 billion. Thailand locked in a trade surplus of $1.42 billion in the January-to-March period.

"Exports should have hit their lowest point in February on uncontrollable factors, mainly lower oil and gold prices. However, Thailand's share of many export markets has increased, showing that there is still room for export growth," said Chutima Bunyapraphasara, permanent secretary of the Commerce Ministry.

Factors causing lower exports include the sluggish global economy, fluctuating exchange rates, dropping crop prices, rising non-tariff barriers, shortages of labour and raw materials, and the shifting abroad of some Thai industries.

Gold imports increased while exports sank in the first three months as the lower gold price encouraged more import for speculation.

The ministry's new export-growth projection of 1.2 per cent is a working target, as its own studies suggest a growth figure of about 0.5-1 per cent.

The official projection assumes that the average oil price will be $70 per barrel in the second half of the year, the baht will be valued at 32.6-33.4 against the US dollar, and agricultural prices will be unchanged from last year.

Chutima said exports should continue to recover in the remaining months as the economies of many markets have shown brighter signs of recovery, particularly the United States.

The proportion of Thailand's exports to the US grew from 1.16 per cent last year to 1.21 per cent in the first two months of 2015, and to Japan rose from 2.68 per cent to 3.07 per cent. The export proportion to India improved from 1.23 per cent last year to 1.39 per cent in January.

Despite declining shipments to China, the export share to this market increased from 1.95 per cent last year to 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2015.

Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Board of Trade and the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said exports had shown positive signs of recovery. However, the baht is still too strong against its rivals, which will continue to affect Thai export competitiveness.

He said Thai enterprises urgently needed to adapt their export strategies to focus more on emerging economic markets, mainly neighbouring countries and southern China.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Commerce-Ministry-cuts-2015-export-growth-target-t-30258945.html


-- The Nation 2015-04-29

[Tatsujin]

And the real world (as opposed to the totally made up fantasy world of Thailand) of trade/politics/economies finally bites hard.

[Chao Lao Beach]

Graph says it all.

And they continue to aftiofically make Thai products more expensive wiht the strong Baht. There is doubt of manipulation.

And so many over leveraged factory workers, will feel a layoff really hard too.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Chao Lao Beach

[NongKhaiKid]

TAT will prove that tourists flocking here will cover any deficit.

[webfact]

Thai export value falls 4.45% in March



Thai export value fell 4.45% year on year in March due to global economic slowdown, Commerce ministry's permanent secretary Miss Chutima Bunyapraphasara said yesterday.

She said Thailand exported goods worth 610 billion baht in March, down by 4.45% year on year.

But during the period, the country also imported goods worth 569.3 billion baht, down by 5.57%, resulting in a
trade deficit of 41.6 billion baht.

In the first quarter of this year, Thailand’s export contracted by 4.68% year on year.

Despite the contraction in March, she remains optimistic about the country’s export outlook.

She said the contraction in March is smaller than the level recorded in February while the country was still able to maintain export markets with key trading partners.

Thailand’s export in February fell by 6.14% year on year.

Meanwhile International Trade Promotion Department’s director-general Nantawan Sakuntanaga said Thailand’s export is likely to grow between 0.5 and 1% this year.

However, she said it is still possible that the export this year could register a 1.2% growth or 7.3 trillion baht, provided that the oil price stays at US$70 per barrel in the second half of this year and the value of farm products remain similar to that of last year.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/thai-export-value-falls-4-45-in-march

-- Thai PBS 2015-04-29

[Fat Haggis]

And yet some kool aid drinkers said there is no loss to the economy in another thread?

[zaphod reborn]

Keep blaming the "global economic slowdown". The economy of your largest trading partner, the US, has been chugging right along. Why don't you closely examine the valuation of the baht, and come up with a strategy for unlinking it from the US dollar, and properly floating it on the market. Exports will soar when the Thai baht is properly valued.

[Anthony5]

Sure, all the fault of the slow world economy, people have stopped eating all over the world.

[angiolo]

Something is happening to the USA dollar..The UK pound is soaring in value against the thb

[ExPratt]

Ringitt has gained against it as well, about time used to be 10bt to 1RM then in 5 months down to 8.8 now back up to 9.2

[elgordo38]

And the real world (as opposed to the totally made up fantasy world of Thailand) of trade/politics/economies finally bites hard.

Yeah and the world stock markets head for the stratosphere into uncharted territory. They are no longer driven by economics but by the money sloshing around the world markets. Money is almost free to borrow so why not jump into the market. Monopoly anyone? When the schmidt hits the fan it will be ugly.

[Srikcir]

“The Commerce Ministry yesterday officially slashed this year's [2015] export-growth target from 4 per cent to 1.2 per cent”

Can you trust this minister?

The Nation 2015-04-24: “Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya confirmed that the export growth target for this year would be at least 1 per cent”

Now it’s 1.2%. BUT he doesn’t believe even himself !

“The ministry's new export-growth projection of 1.2 per cent is a working target, as its own studies suggest a growth figure of about 0.5-1 per cent.”

If Gen. Prayut didn’t have a Commerce Minister, he wouldn’t be missing much.

[Thai at Heart]

Keep blaming the "global economic slowdown". The economy of your largest trading partner, the US, has been chugging right along. Why don't you closely examine the valuation of the baht, and come up with a strategy for unlinking it from the US dollar, and properly floating it on the market. Exports will soar when the Thai baht is properly valued.

Thai exporters need to find efficiencies to increase their margin. They couldn't grow exports at 29.5, they can't grow them at 33, and I doubt there would be a stratosferic increase at 36.

[ratcatcher]

Something is happening to the USA dollar..The UK pound is soaring in value against the thb

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THBI guess the same thing is happening to the US $ and GBP, both going up as well as CA$.

[Fat Haggis]

End of the month trading? End of the US fiscal year? Good news if you are paid in $ and it goes straight into your Thai account

Could do with it hitting $1= 33 baht!!

[ExpatOilWorker]

Exports are down the last 3 months, but so are imports, leaving Thailand with another $1 billion trade surplus. The trade surplus will strengthen the Thai baht, which in turn will weaken export and the general economy.