Confrontation looms as two fortresses rise in South China Sea

[NeverSure]

I think China resembles an overblown N.Korea more than it resembles Thailand.

China had a long bitter personality worship cult with Mao. Similar to what PDRK have been and are going through now. Similarly, China went through a long miserable time, just a few decades ago, with its Cultural Revolution and victimizing intellectuals and everyone with any creative ideas or free thinking - similar to what N.Korea is doing now. Same same for famines.

Thankfully, China came out of its miserable Mao years, and realigned it's worship of money to become the big money player it is now. It took Tibet easily, just by commiting some equipment and troops. It wants to take the Spratleys from Philippines, but as the article mentions, war is almost inevitable, or at least some military action. Trouble is, there's always suffering with military action. China's military is still low-tech, but it's so vast, that if it goes ape-shit, it can cause quite a bit of harm - particularly to non-military targets. If China were to face off with the US Navy, it doesn't have much of a prayer, unless it gets a lucky shot, like the Argentinians did with a Naval battle vs the Brits - but the Argies still wound up losing in a brief war, right on their doorstep.

Probably the least harmful outcome is a brief military vs military scuffle between the US and China, where China would lose, and China would then be forced to abandon their land grap of the Philippine islands. Unfortunately, I think it will be bloodier than that, and that civilians will get bloodied.

Maybe you can tell that I'm not in awe of China as some are. (Not aimed at you.) Yes China has a large army but it can't project it. It lacks the equipment to move it. It doesn't have the large cargo planes or ships and hospital ships and carriers and so on to fight very much off its own turf. It could do a heck of a boots on the ground defense of its own turf, but its military is grounded.

The US has the equipment and experience to move a lot of pure force great distances. The B-2 Spirit stealth bomber has a range of 7,000 miles/11,000 kms. It can operate out of Diego Garcia. It can operate out of India.

The demise of China will be economic. Short of selling cheap labor to the West in the form of exports, it really doesn't invent or create anything. It can't build a decent Chinese car, farm tractor, rice combine, city bus... It can't even make decent steel.

The West doesn't have to whip China militarily although it could. It already has it whipped in technologically and economically. China eats its lunch out of the West's hand at the will of the West. The West doesn't have to buy China's exports thereby making it money.

That's all China has. That's it.

[boomerangutang]

It may be interesting to note that the Pacific theater of WWII was ignited by the strongest Asian nation of that time, desperately seeking oil and other natural resources. It prompted the US and its allies to get involved, and we know the outcome. Let's hope upon hope that hostilies don't erupt to even a tiny fraction of WWII, .....but the current scenario is hauntingly similar to mid 20th century.

From Post #1: It knows there is oil in the Spratlys, otherwise it would not risk billions of dollars and war for the island chain.

From US Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2013:

Contested areas of South China Sea likely have few conventional oil and gas resources

Industry sources suggest almost no oil and less than 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves exist in fields near the Spratly Islands. The Paracel Island territory has even less natural gas and no oil.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10651

Whether there's a lot or a little oil in the region of those islands, China will want it. However, how much can we trust China to drill cleanly? Not much. They're technologically behind, and their consideration for the environment is near zero. They know how to talk the talk about environmental husbandry, but they're actions speak another story. Even now, they're destroying the surrounding ecosystems of those rocky outcrops, and terraforming with many tons of dredged sand and coral.

[mikebike]

The US is now the world's #1 oil producer, achieving that in half the time that was predicted just five years ago. While it is true that the USA is currently the world's largest producer of liquid fuels that is not the entire picture. The US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are all very close in production numbers. But Russia and the US's production pales in contrast to that of the entire OPEC block. Much of the USA's rapid increase in production has come from natural gas fracking which has many of its own issues much like Canada's oil sands. Ultimately the USA is still a net liquid fuel importer, estimated at 20-25% in 2015 over domestically produced supply. (Sourced from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and money.cnn.com). The US has more oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined. Where did you get that from? In all the literature I found the most recent proven oil reserve figures have the USA at 10-12th in reserves... (again, a good source is the EIA). China has the world's largest population which amounts to 1.3 billion mouths for a communist country to feed, and China isn't tropical except in the extreme South and they need energy aka oil. Much of China's climate is Alpine and even sub-Arctic. Actually, 'much of the country lies in in a temperate belt', the subtract portion is tiny and the alpine regions are mostly limited to the Tibetan plateau (wiki). Yes they need liquid fuels for heating and manufacturing etc.., but China is not Siberia.

China is a net importer of food, unable to grow enough food for its people. A lack of money from a trade embargo and an unwillingness to sell would set China on it's heels. When China's Food Runs Out - Forbes Although China is a net importer of food as the Forbes article states, the conclusions of that Forbes article seem to be much different than yours. They believe that China is actively solving this issue. By switching to domestic meat production rather than grain production, given its limited arable land, importing grains is way less expensive than importing meat and makes sense. It is also actively acquiring farm land/production facilities in easter europe and africa as it has done in the minerals and oil sectors. Owning the corporations that produce grains globally will be an effective insulator to embargoes. A more recent Forbes article goes even further at states' "Every cloud has a silver lining, and companies and investors clearly see the silver lining in helping China to solve its food problems".

A little scratching below the surface shows just how vulnerable China is to economic, energy and food disruption. Close analysis seems to show that China is no more or less vulnerable to economic, energy or food disruptions than Russia or the USA. In fact Russia and China may well be in a far better position than the USA to this form of attack. The bulk of their populations are very used to living at subsistence levels, or below, and their gov't have proven their ability to discard vast numbers of people to obtain their political goals. They would weather a storm, the US... not so much. There's no need for a lot of military action atm but a few quick kicks to the groin just to show seriousness might not be a bad idea either. Maybe drop a few bunker busters on those new artificial islands from stealth bombers and simply deny it. Yeah, there's a great idea. Reflect on how the USA would react to China or Russia secretly dropping a few bunker busters on one of the USA's bases of operation in the Caribbean? Why would or should China's reaction be any different in their sphere of influence? As in a street fight, a few kicks to the groin does little but infuriate your adversary and increase animosity. You either go all-in and see who is bloodiest at the end or work out some form of co-existance. All but the most hardcore escallationists would agree that some form of co-operation and co-existance is best for all parties.

Edited June 14, 2015 by mikebike

[mikebike]

China has a large army but it can't project it. It lacks the equipment to move it. It doesn't have the large cargo planes or ships and hospital ships and carriers and so on to fight very much off its own turf. It could do a heck of a boots on the ground defense of its own turf, but its military is grounded.

The US has the equipment and experience to move a lot of pure force great distances. The B-2 Spirit stealth bomber has a range of 7,000 miles/11,000 kms. It can operate out of Diego Garcia. It can operate out of India.

Chinese foreign policy doesn't seem to need to 'project' its army to obtain and secure its goals. It seems to be doing fine in this regard without having to be biggest, baddest and most mobile. Its vast, relatively immobile, army seems to be more than adequate at the key US talking point of 'homeland security'... It would be a <deleted>-show for any foreign power attempting to invade its turf. The USA's vast, high-tech, military support infrastructure would be about as helpful in attacking China as it has been in the middle east, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. Being able to forcibly maintain their geopolitical goals seems to be far less of a priority to China than being able economically and politically maintain them.

[NeverSure]

The US is now the world's #1 oil producer, achieving that in half the time that was predicted just five years ago. While it is true that the USA is currently the world's largest producer of liquid fuels that is not the entire picture. The US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are all very close in production numbers. But Russia and the US's production pales in contrast to that of the entire OPEC block. Much of the USA's rapid increase in production has come from natural gas fracking which has many of its own issues much like Canada's oil sands. Ultimately the USA is still a net liquid fuel importer, estimated at 20-25% in 2015 over domestically produced supply. (Sourced from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and money.cnn.com). The US has more oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined. Where did you get that from? In all the literature I found the most recent proven oil reserve figures have the USA at 10-12th in reserves... (again, a good source is the EIA). China has the world's largest population which amounts to 1.3 billion mouths for a communist country to feed, and China isn't tropical except in the extreme South and they need energy aka oil. Much of China's climate is Alpine and even sub-Arctic. Actually, 'much of the country lies in in a temperate belt', the subtract portion is tiny and the alpine regions are mostly limited to the Tibetan plateau (wiki). Yes they need liquid fuels for heating and manufacturing etc.., but China is not Siberia.

China is a net importer of food, unable to grow enough food for its people. A lack of money from a trade embargo and an unwillingness to sell would set China on it's heels. When China's Food Runs Out - Forbes Although China is a net importer of food as the Forbes article states, the conclusions of that Forbes article seem to be much different than yours. They believe that China is actively solving this issue. By switching to domestic meat production rather than grain production, given its limited arable land, importing grains is way less expensive than importing meat and makes sense. It is also actively acquiring farm land/production facilities in easter europe and africa as it has done in the minerals and oil sectors. Owning the corporations that produce grains globally will be an effective insulator to embargoes. A more recent Forbes article goes even further at states' "Every cloud has a silver lining, and companies and investors clearly see the silver lining in helping China to solve its food problems".

A little scratching below the surface shows just how vulnerable China is to economic, energy and food disruption. Close analysis seems to show that China is no more or less vulnerable to economic, energy or food disruptions than Russia or the USA. In fact Russia and China may well be in a far better position than the USA to this form of attack. The bulk of their populations are very used to living at subsistence levels, or below, and their gov't have proven their ability to discard vast numbers of people to obtain their political goals. They would weather a storm, the US... not so much. There's no need for a lot of military action atm but a few quick kicks to the groin just to show seriousness might not be a bad idea either. Maybe drop a few bunker busters on those new artificial islands from stealth bombers and simply deny it. Yeah, there's a great idea. Reflect on how the USA would react to China or Russia secretly dropping a few bunker busters on one of the USA's bases of operation in the Caribbean? Why would or should China's reaction be any different in their sphere of influence? As in a street fight, a few kicks to the groin does little but infuriate your adversary and increase animosity. You either go all-in and see who is bloodiest at the end or work out some form of co-existance. All but the most hardcore escallationists would agree that some form of co-operation and co-existance is best for all parties.

You really don't need all of that red font. It's hard to read and like all-caps, is to me like shouting. Bold would do.

You are right about the oil reserves. I know better - brain fart. The US does under report because of regulations about stating "proven". Unlike OPEC or Russia or others those number go to potential stock investors... The US has become the world's largest oil producer.

The US got frustrated in the countries you mentioned due to rules of engagement while fighting guerrilla fighters who blend into and hide among the population. China could put up a heck of a battle in that situation. But China can't project its force. If it has ships and equipment out messing with islands they are completely vulnerable to the US which can project force. The B2 Spirit Stealth Bomber can fly all the way around the world non stop and unseen by getting mid air refueling over the oceans. It can carry the heaviest bunker buster or a massive load of other bombs. That's just one example.

What you said misses two things. If the West stops buying Chinese junk due to an embargo China's income dries up because that's all it has. Russia has oil and some buyers. China can't get to Venezuela if the West doesn't want it to. It can't project force.

I could go on but you're missing the point that China has nothing to offer of value to the world except cheap labor which it sells in the form of exports and which can be shunned. Also China has no real technology - not even enough to make decent steel or a decent car, tractor, bulldozer, rice harvest, or scooter. No one want their crap. They want Western cars themselves over their own cars.

That's enough. China ain't all that.

[mikebike]

I think the point you are missing, which I tried to make already is that China would function more or less fine in a vacuum. They are ok with closing their doors to the world and losing significant parts of their population. They've done it before and would again. The threat of or the occurance of an embargo might delay their plans and set them back a few 10s of million people but it will not stop them unless you go for total destruction. The Chinese system does not work on quarterly or annual objectives... their patience is far greater tha Americas.

[Publicus]

China has a large army but it can't project it. It lacks the equipment to move it. It doesn't have the large cargo planes or ships and hospital ships and carriers and so on to fight very much off its own turf. It could do a heck of a boots on the ground defense of its own turf, but its military is grounded.

The US has the equipment and experience to move a lot of pure force great distances. The B-2 Spirit stealth bomber has a range of 7,000 miles/11,000 kms. It can operate out of Diego Garcia. It can operate out of India.

Chinese foreign policy doesn't seem to need to 'project' its army to obtain and secure its goals. It seems to be doing fine in this regard without having to be biggest, baddest and most mobile. Its vast, relatively immobile, army seems to be more than adequate at the key US talking point of 'homeland security'... It would be a <deleted>-show for any foreign power attempting to invade its turf. The USA's vast, high-tech, military support infrastructure would be about as helpful in attacking China as it has been in the middle east, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. Being able to forcibly maintain their geopolitical goals seems to be far less of a priority to China than being able economically and politically maintain them.

The CCP's 2015 semi-annual Military White Paper released at the end of last month documented a doctrine of "pre-emptive attack," also of "going beyond the traditional way of thinking of valuing land and disregarding sea," and of changing its military posture from "defense" to instead one of "active defense."

The CCP Boyz have extended their Naval forces to the East Sea, the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and to the Horn of Africa as they speak of defending their national interests on a global scale, not just yet but coming soon.

As to the CCP Defense White Paper.....

It confirms what U.S. analysts have been saying for some time: Beijing is growing bigger and bolder with its military strategy. China envisions itself as a global player, and is in the process of shifting its strategic core from its land-based troops to its navy.

Of course, the timing of this white paper will skew readings, especially in the West and in Southeast Asia. In recent months, all eyes have been on China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea. China is building islands and building facilities, including airstrips, on those islands with a scope and pace unprecedented in the region.

In a nutshell, the first part of Chinese [reformist] Vice Premier Wang Yang’s famous statement — that China “[has] neither the ability nor the intent to challenge the United States” — no longer applies. The second part — intent — remains an open question.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/chinas-2015-defense-white-paper-dont-forget-taiwan/

The CCP Boyz have always consistently said they are opposed to a US global "hegemony" (regardless of whether one exists or not). However, the Boyz have never said they are opposed to global hegemony per se. The dictators in Beijing just happen to think a CCP hegemony would be fine indeed.

The CCP Boyz don't accept the SCS as an international waterway to instead see it as a Chinese lake, which is taking them in the direction of the direct confrontation with the United States and its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region. from Japan and South Korea to Asean to India.

Butter has no role in this and hasn't ever had one, as sanctions are out of the question. It was always inevitable so now it's going to be beans, bullets, bandages from here on out. There's no question the CCP Boyz did not ever at any time expect this from Asean, the US, its allies/partners, to include the UN. Fact remains if the Boyz had brains they'd be dangerous.

[Publicus]

I think the point you are missing, which I tried to make already is that China would function more or less fine in a vacuum. They are ok with closing their doors to the world and losing significant parts of their population. They've done it before and would again. The threat of or the occurance of an embargo might delay their plans and set them back a few 10s of million people but it will not stop them unless you go for total destruction. The Chinese system does not work on quarterly or annual objectives... their patience is far greater tha Americas.

It would be national suicide if China closed its doors and it would be political suicide for the CCP Dictators in Beijing to close the PRChina to the world and each group of Chinese know it.

The PRChina is still a very closed place culturally and politically, and it is a repressed place with 850,000 heavily armed state security police divided up in to each province.

If the present China closes itself from Western technology, expertise, capital, export markets, FDI and the like it dries up and it dies, and each group knows this, from the dictators in Beijing to the new middle class that is middle class but by PRChinese standards.

The PLA on land, air, sea as it is, is not a professional military. The PLA is in fact and reality the military arm of the Chinese Communist Party, which is a political party of dictators, tyrants, corrupt hacks, ideologues. The People's Republic of China, its PLA, the entire lock, stock and barrel of the PRC is the wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party.

You need to know that in the 21st century there is global consensus that the only thing worse than a rising China is a falling China, the People's Republic of China which is 100% owned and operated by the Chinese Communist Party.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Publicus

[Publicus]

The CCP Dictators in Beijing are suffering the neurotic consequences of their major and serious misjudgements and their series of strategic errors over the SCS.

The dictators in Beijing had thought from 20 or more years ago to the present that they could rely on strongly emphasizing historical documentation to prevail in its claims to own virtually all of the SCS. The Boyz signed the ILOS treaty in the eccentric belief they could persuade the world of their documentation dating back a thousand years to ancient empires.

Holy Batman were they wrong and they now realize and know they were seriously wrong. No one accepts the artificial documents Beijing had thought we would accept.

So now in a classic rant, the CCP Dictators in Beijing are furiously determined to do whatever they want in the SCS and elsewhere. Here's the CCP deputy representative to the UN carrying on yesterday at the UN that the Philippines, which encouraged by the US filed a case with the UN Tribunal on ILOS, will never succeed no matter what the ruling of the UN will be......

The CCP's deputy permanent representative to the UN Wang Min, scolding speaking after the Phils' representative had spoken in reference to the case and the controversy....

"China's construction activities on her islands and reefs are conducted in the Chinese territory, falling entirely within the scope of China's sovereignty. It is legal, justified and reasonable," he said.

"Let me make this very clear to that country here: its calculations are totally wrong. China's will to safeguard her sovereignty and territorial integrity is rock firm. No matter what and how much they say at this meeting or any UN venues, they will never get their way," he said.

China will neither accept nor participate in the arbitration unilaterally initiated by the Philippines, Wang said.

"China urges that country to correct its erroneous actions and return to the right track of resolving the disputes through bilateral negotiations as soon as possible."

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2015/06/14/1465833/chinese-envoy-un-philippines-will-not-get-its-way

After all, it is in the natural order of things that the Philippines is a small country, and the United States is a declining power.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Publicus

[boomerangutang]

There was an editorial published in the Nation a few days ago on this issue. It came from the China Daily newspaper, which I assume is one of China's largest. source

In it, the writer, Wang Hui, was lamenting that Australia is now speaking out against China's land grabs. Mr. Wang revealed a few things:

>>> he said Australia was 'thousands of miles away' from the imbroglio. It's hundreds, not thousands of miles away.

>>> he used the term 'reclamation work' to describe China's land grab. Yea, that's like neighbor A taking a tractor, driving across town, and commencing to flatten out a portion of neighbor B's yard for a building project, and calling it 'reclamation work.' Great neighbor.

Here's a suggestion. Since China is not going to retreat from its bull-headed land-grab, and the international outcry will continue, why don't Fils just offer to sell the Spratleys for a trillion dollars. China might pay it, and if so, that would quiet down the int'l community.