Will Pattaya be a ghost town in ten years?

[tropo]

Are you seriously telling us that the thousands and thousands of houses in the Pattaya suburbs are there because of the meagre earnings of service workers in the tourist industry? A service worker earns a pittance and lives in a tiny room in a Thai apartment block, usually sharing with friends, and they DON'T drive cars.

Ever heard of dormitory suburbs?

I didn't tell you anything of the sort.

The people who own the suburban houses are people who set up the industries which feed on the tourism industry, some directly, some indirectly... not the lowly paid workers. EVERYTHING here ultimately feeds on the tourism industry.

I think I need to give you an example...

Let's take for example a Thai who owns a hardware store. They came to Pattaya to open a hardware store. They have money, see that there is a good business opportunity in Pattaya, move here, buy a house in the suburbs and open a hardware store. The hardware store gets most of its business from other Thais. Some of their customers are lowly paid workers who need to fix something in their room or dorm. Perhaps they need a new blade for their fan... some screws to repair furniture perhaps... maybe some paint to spruce up their room? Other customers are richer Thais who own other businesses, who also came here to make money from the tourism industry.

This can be played over and over again in hundreds of industries. Motorcycle shops, car dealerships, furniture shops, laundry services, convenience stores, markets, electronic shops and service centers, legal services, clinics, dentists, optometrists, pharmacies... all exist to service the population that services the tourism industry.... all the way from the top of the ladder i.e. business owners who buy the real estate that expands the suburbs, down to the lowly paid workers who live in rooms and pay rent to the richer population who own the houses.

When tourists leave as in a "live after tourist" scenario, the customer base dries up and eventually they close their hardware store and move on. Of course a hardware store would be one of the longest survivors because even vacant houses will require repair and maintenance. Car and motorcycle dealerships, markets and convenience stores, for example, would close down sooner.

I haven't even mentioned the portion of suburban house owners who own that real estate care of a foreign sponsor. This is also a big component. As for the general car ownership in Pattaya - I'm sure most of them are bank owned.

Of course this isn't going to happen. The demographics may change with a stronger Asian component already evident, but the tourists are here to stay.

[thaibeachlovers]

Are you seriously telling us that the thousands and thousands of houses in the Pattaya suburbs are there because of the meagre earnings of service workers in the tourist industry? A service worker earns a pittance and lives in a tiny room in a Thai apartment block, usually sharing with friends, and they DON'T drive cars.

Ever heard of dormitory suburbs?

I didn't tell you anything of the sort.

The people who own the suburban houses are people who set up the industries which feed on the tourism industry, some directly, some indirectly... not the lowly paid workers. EVERYTHING here ultimately feeds on the tourism industry.

I think I need to give you an example...

Let's take for example a Thai who owns a hardware store. They came to Pattaya to open a hardware store. They have money, see that there is a good business opportunity in Pattaya, move here, buy a house in the suburbs and open a hardware store. The hardware store gets most of its business from other Thais. Some of their customers are lowly paid workers who need to fix something in their room or dorm. Perhaps they need a new blade for their fan... some screws to repair furniture perhaps... maybe some paint to spruce up their room? Other customers are richer Thais who own other businesses, who also came here to make money from the tourism industry.

This can be played over and over again in hundreds of industries. Motorcycle shops, car dealerships, furniture shops, laundry services, convenience stores, markets, electronic shops and service centers, legal services, clinics, dentists, optometrists, pharmacies... all exist to service the population that services the tourism industry.... all the way from the top of the ladder i.e. business owners who buy the real estate that expands the suburbs, down to the lowly paid workers who live in rooms and pay rent to the richer population who own the houses.

When tourists leave as in a "live after tourist" scenario, the customer base dries up and eventually they close their hardware store and move on. Of course a hardware store would be one of the longest survivors because even vacant houses will require repair and maintenance. Car and motorcycle dealerships, markets and convenience stores, for example, would close down sooner.

I haven't even mentioned the portion of suburban house owners who own that real estate care of a foreign sponsor. This is also a big component. As for the general car ownership in Pattaya - I'm sure most of them are bank owned.

Of course this isn't going to happen. The demographics may change with a stronger Asian component already evident, but the tourists are here to stay.

I only partly agree with you. The thousands of houses owned by foreigners are nothing to do with tourism- tourists don't buy property. The thousands of dormitory suburb houses are nothing to do with tourism- they are owned by Thais that commute to work elsewhere, now that the expressway has been finished. The thousands of expats that live in Pattaya aren't tourists.

If every tourist left Pattaya, just the above would keep Pattaya functioning, albeit without the farang bar scene.

How many Thais come to Pattaya just for the golf and weekends at the beach? Day trippers are not really tourists.

How many arrive on buses for Nong Nooch, and the other attractions without staying in Pattaya.

Pattaya has long ago ceased being a one horse town.

[ttthailand]

Not sure about 10 years from now but was in Pattaya hitting a few bars around LK metro and walking around town Wednesday and I have to say that it didn't look good. During the day almost no one about. The evening looked like only locals hanging out at their normal haunts. Didn't do walking street but a few weeks ago it was almost entirely Chinese in groups, some Indians and middle easterns. Bars all were desperate to get customers. Only good thing is that it looks like some bars and lowering prices or having longer happy hours. Saw many places with beer prices (all beers) for 55 baht. I even think traffic was lighter than I have seen the last few years in low season.

[tropo]

I only partly agree with you. The thousands of houses owned by foreigners are nothing to do with tourism- tourists don't buy property. The thousands of dormitory suburb houses are nothing to do with tourism- they are owned by Thais that commute to work elsewhere, now that the expressway has been finished. The thousands of expats that live in Pattaya aren't tourists.

If every tourist left Pattaya, just the above would keep Pattaya functioning, albeit without the farang bar scene.

How many Thais come to Pattaya just for the golf and weekends at the beach? Day trippers are not really tourists.

How many arrive on buses for Nong Nooch, and the other attractions without staying in Pattaya.

Pattaya has long ago ceased being a one horse town.

The only reason why Thais would buy in Pattaya to commute elsewhere is because they like Pattaya and the environment, which was created from tourism. It all goes back to tourism, everything.

If the primary industry disappeared, it would become a shell of its former self. Detroit is a good example of what can happen to a city which loses it primary industry.

Of course this is only hypothetical. Tourism is hear to stay. Pattaya is not about to become a ghost town.

[tropo]

Not sure about 10 years from now but was in Pattaya hitting a few bars around LK metro and walking around town Wednesday and I have to say that it didn't look good. During the day almost no one about. The evening looked like only locals hanging out at their normal haunts. Didn't do walking street but a few weeks ago it was almost entirely Chinese in groups, some Indians and middle easterns. Bars all were desperate to get customers. Only good thing is that it looks like some bars and lowering prices or having longer happy hours. Saw many places with beer prices (all beers) for 55 baht. I even think traffic was lighter than I have seen the last few years in low season.

I agree, the traffic the last couple of weeks has been the best I've ever seen it. It was particularly surprising since it is now September. It is quieter now than it was in June to August.

As a demographic changes i.e more Asians, (Indians and Arabs) less Farang, the bar industry will take a big hit. You will see big changes. I don't consider this to be a bad thing for Pattaya.

[thaibeachlovers]

Not sure about 10 years from now but was in Pattaya hitting a few bars around LK metro and walking around town Wednesday and I have to say that it didn't look good. During the day almost no one about. The evening looked like only locals hanging out at their normal haunts. Didn't do walking street but a few weeks ago it was almost entirely Chinese in groups, some Indians and middle easterns. Bars all were desperate to get customers. Only good thing is that it looks like some bars and lowering prices or having longer happy hours. Saw many places with beer prices (all beers) for 55 baht. I even think traffic was lighter than I have seen the last few years in low season.

I agree, the traffic the last couple of weeks has been the best I've ever seen it. It was particularly surprising since it is now September. It is quieter now than it was in June to August.

As a demographic changes i.e more Asians, (Indians and Arabs) less Farang, the bar industry will take a big hit. You will see big changes. I don't consider this to be a bad thing for Pattaya.

To repeat what I said before, I can see Pattaya becoming more like Hua Hin, but with more bars. I don't go, or want to go, to Hua Hin, but the average package tourist will love it. Sun, sand and a bit of naughty nightlife to talk about back 'ome.

[morrobay]

Not sure about 10 years from now but was in Pattaya hitting a few bars around LK metro and walking around town Wednesday and I have to say that it didn't look good. During the day almost no one about. The evening looked like only locals hanging out at their normal haunts. Didn't do walking street but a few weeks ago it was almost entirely Chinese in groups, some Indians and middle easterns. Bars all were desperate to get customers. Only good thing is that it looks like some bars and lowering prices or having longer happy hours. Saw many places with beer prices (all beers) for 55 baht. I even think traffic was lighter than I have seen the last few years in low season.

I agree, the traffic the last couple of weeks has been the best I've ever seen it. It was particularly surprising since it is now September. It is quieter now than it was in June to August.

As a demographic changes i.e more Asians, (Indians and Arabs) less Farang, the bar industry will take a big hit. You will see big changes. I don't consider this to be a bad thing for Pattaya.

To repeat what I said before, I can see Pattaya becoming more like Hua Hin, but with more bars. I don't go, or want to go, to Hua Hin, but the average package tourist will love it. Sun, sand and a bit of naughty nightlife to talk about back 'ome.

Hua Hin ? Isnt that place fairly well ordered. Was there once. For Pattaya to become more ordered is not very probable as that would be in conflict with the second law:

http://physics.bu.edu/~duffy/py105/Secondlaw.html. Ie systems spontaneously increase entropy, disorder

Edited September 12, 2015 by morrobay

[tropo]

Hua Hin ? Isnt that place fairly well ordered. Was there once. For Pattaya to become more ordered is not very probable as that would be in conflict with the second law:

http://physics.bu.edu/~duffy/py105/Secondlaw.html. Ie systems spontaneously increase entropy, disorder

I don't think Hua Hin can be used as an example of what would happen to Pattaya without tourists. For starters, Hua Hin had been favoured by the royal family since the 1920's and royal palaces were built, which IMO puts it on another planet (compared to Pattaya).

Secondly it already has a well established tourism industry. As a tourist resort, it is much older than Pattaya.

[nichol]

Geez I hope not