Bangkok bomb: The different theories considered, and why they are met with skepticism

[Norvabc]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

Charlie, you say you have spoke to "a few people", and they are of the opinion the red shirts are behind this. That's fine, and I don't doubt what you say. But I live in Chiang Mai, and my wife and I have spoken to DOZENS of people here since this incident, and the overwhelming majority of them think the Junta hired people to do this so that they can maintain their control over the country, and further delay elections.

The thing is, at this point, no one really knows a damn thing for sure, and the way the RTP and this government operate, it's highly likely that we never will. Surat Thani - parking garage - car packed with explosives - cops saying "we have suspects" - how's that one going?

Hopefully, and I say that with a grain of salt, the cops will actually, truly find out who is behind this, and put an end to all the guess work and various theories floating around. But, I won't hold my breath on that happening.

An inside job ?? Strange how the area was not investigated, do they already know who did it.

[hawker9000]

OK, obviously we still don't know what force is behind this but I just read an analysis that mentioned both Southern Thai Muslim separatists and also ISIS as being on the higher end of probability.

It was mentioned that the junta would not prefer it to be from Southern Thailand because then it would be very disruptive and they would have to act on that. It's one thing having a decades longs regional conflict in the south, but it's quite another thing if that became national. It would be a first, if true, that they bombed in Bangkok but it is possible.

It was also mentioned that it is known that ISIS cells exist in Thailand. That one I don't really get. I understand the interest of ISIS in South Thailand ... but given other international priorities of ISIS back in the middle east and also western targets ... why would they bother with Thailand now?

Perhaps "self-radicalized" performers, and not formally associated with ISIS, but exposed via the internet to their message & methods.

[Jingthing]

It was WAY too sophisticated for a lone wolf.

[Ajahnski]

Of the theories in the original post, the red shirts make the most sense b/c there has been no claim of responsibility. They have been known to use indiscriminate violence in the past (bombing BKK protesters).

Maybe this will give the junta reason to clamp down and assume power longer. However, maybe they are just frustrated and pissed off that there have been no elections yet? If the general is such a great leader, then he should have the credentials to stand for election by now. I think he would get a lot of votes just b/c he ended the violence in BKK.

They may believe that he's just a tin pot dictator, and this will put the pressure on. (Of course, if he would just allow some freedom of speech and assembly, then people could at least air their grievances and get some pressure release that way. That's part of the reason for the first amendment in the US - it's a pressure release, and, without that, people are much more likely to 'blow up.') By not claiming responsibility, it makes the gov't look inept. The gov't, in turn, is likely to crack down, but they can just plant some more bombs. Pretty soon, you have what looks like a full-blown revolt to a dictatorship.

That leads to the general losing face in the international community, foreign aid drying up, tourism drying up, foreign investment etc. and the gov't becoming a pariah. The general has already 'officially' left the military, so, if he dons fatigues again, it will look like Thailand is backsliding in a major way. This puts him between a rock and a hard spot, and then gives the red shirts room to say 'remember how great things were when we first got elected to power in the 90's?'

As long as they don't claim responsibility, it's a win for them, and an even bigger loss for the govt.

It's not a bad plan. Nasty, but not bad.

[Jingthing]

The twisty thing about the red shirt possibility is that if the current government accuses them of that, unless they have incredibly solid evidence, a large percentage of Thais won't believe them. I agree its a possibility but I think the Southern Thai going north theory seems more likely.

Edited August 23, 2015 by Jingthing

[speedtripler]

"Many social-media users have cast doubt on this theory, saying this attack is far too cruel and indiscriminate to be carried out by Thais."

are these the same people who cut the heads off of pigs and display them in the market while standing in a sea of fish blood and fish that are flopping around gasping for air all day, waiting for a zombie to cut their heads off with a butchers knife?

You should probably review western food practices

See how we treat chickens, pigs, cattle and dairy animals

Keep them in cages so small they can't move, overfeed them, inject steroids and antibiotics so they reach unnatural weights and when there miserable life is over, we electrocute them and send a piston through their heads, cut their throats and let them bleed out hanging upside down...

Think about that the next time you are ordering a burger....

[AZBill]

So all theories have been rejected. Yet it happened! My guess is the Junta itself engineered it to avoid elections and retain power. The lack of any progress in the investigation shows no progress is intended. The investigation is all show. It's very naive to think a military government bent on keeping power would be so cruel. A few lives mean nothing to them and they rely on being the last suspected of such a thing. This is how dictatorships are built and sustained.

[hawker9000]

So all theories have been rejected. Yet it happened! My guess is the Junta itself engineered it to avoid elections and retain power. The lack of any progress in the investigation shows no progress is intended. The investigation is all show. It's very naive to think a military government bent on keeping power would be so cruel. A few lives mean nothing to them and they rely on being the last suspected of such a thing. This is how dictatorships are built and sustained.

Pure conspiracy theory and utter nonsense. Just exactly the same thinking and same mentality that went into the 9-1-1 government conspiracy and the MH370 conspiracy theories. The manner in which the Erawan investigation has been or is being conducted is absolutely no different than and entirely consistent with most any of the other investigations that ever take place in Thailand. No better, no worse. (And I'll leave it to some other topic to discuss just what that is ...) To keep making this oh so predictable suggestion is just an expression of the usual shrill, never-ending, ongoing, anti-govt agenda. Furthermore, it just doesn't make a grain of sense that the government would do something to undermine its own credibility and presumed ability to keep the peace, and damage tourism. Not to mention the complete atrocity on its own citizens, and even its own culture, it would constitute. No one not totally consumed with blind and unreasoning anti-government hatred could take this seriously.

[ourmanflint]

So all theories have been rejected. Yet it happened! My guess is the Junta itself engineered it to avoid elections and retain power. The lack of any progress in the investigation shows no progress is intended. The investigation is all show. It's very naive to think a military government bent on keeping power would be so cruel. A few lives mean nothing to them and they rely on being the last suspected of such a thing. This is how dictatorships are built and sustained.

Pure conspiracy theory and utter nonsense. Just exactly the same thinking and same mentality that went into the 9-1-1 government conspiracy and the MH370 conspiracy theories. The manner in which the Erawan investigation has been or is being conducted is absolutely no different than and entirely consistent with most any of the other investigations that ever take place in Thailand. No better, no worse. (And I'll leave it to some other topic to discuss just what that is ...) To keep making this oh so predictable suggestion is just an expression of the usual shrill, never-ending, ongoing, anti-govt agenda. Furthermore, it just doesn't make a grain of sense that the government would do something to undermine its own credibility and presumed ability to keep the peace, and damage tourism. Not to mention the complete atrocity on its own citizens, and even its own culture, it would constitute. No one not totally consumed with blind and unreasoning anti-government hatred could take this seriously.

I can't believe any sane or rational person would think that the present government could ever engineer or would ever engineer something so horrific against its own citizens, the idea is just ludicrous. If anything the bomb has shown the huge gaping hole in what is supposed to the nations police force and is an embarrassment for current regime if anything.

For the record, I think this has been the work of someone who is very bright but wholly misguided and inexperienced in life, lacking in any understanding of the consequences of their actions, idealistic but irrational, the aim I guess was to "attack" the current regime as retaliation for some slight they have perceived. In my mind there is only one group that fits that bill, and I would be checking there whereabouts since they were released from detention not so long ago. If the guy in yellow reminded me of anyone, it was those Dao Din students who were outraged by their loss of freedom.