Thai opinion: Theories full of holes versus the only thing that really matters

[webfact]

TELL IT AS IT IS
Theories full of holes versus the only thing that really matters
Pornpimol Kanchanalak
Special to The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Everyone seems to have his or her own idea of "who dun it". The conspiracy theories circulating out there, especially in the social media, would be enough to overwhelm even Sherlock Holmes. And while the official investigations are still ongoing, several private enquiries seem to have reached an "it's elementary, my dear Watson" conclusion.

It's almost always human nature to imagine florid scenarios behind such an utterly savage and hideous act such as the bombing at the Erawan Shrine on Monday. Who would be sadistic enough to want to kill and maim innocent bystanders, including children, women and the elderly, at a time they were most vulnerable - during their prayers at a place of worship?

At present, two "theories" stand out as being most plausible.

The first contends that the attack was "revenge" for the Thai government's deportation of 100-plus Uighur Muslims to China and an uncertain fate at the hands of the Beijing authorities. Leaked in-flight images of the deportees handcuffed, hooded and each flanked by robot-like Chinese guards were enough to make grown men cry. The Uighur sympathisers who carried out the Bangkok attack, goes the theory, could be lone wolves, as in the Boston Marathon bombing, or a more organised terrorist movement linked to the Islamic State.

The second theory places the blame squarely on an indigenous dissident political faction that supports a former prime minister. The blast came a few days after a leaked video clip showed the former Thai premier launching a verbal attack on the government in Bangkok, at a party in Finland.

Strong criticism from red-shirt leaders and Pheu Thai politicians of the government's work and the draft constitution add to the weight of the argument implicating this side of the political divide.

Each of the theories has a whole variety of sub-theories, especially when it comes to the motive, the modus operandi, the mastermind, the team leader, and, by no means a small matter, the government's explanation and findings so far.

Each of the "main artery" theories, their tributary sub-theories and sub-sub-theories has its "blank spaces". Hence it is no surprise that we are hearing more and more argumentum ad absurdum ("arguments to absurdity"), which attempt to show that a statement is false by demonstrating the absurd and untenable outcomes that follow if we believe it.

A few examples:

"Uighur attackers never use explosives, they only use knives and machetes." However, it could not be established that it was an Uighur who did the bombing.

"No Thai would ever consider committing sacrilege against the Lord Brahma, let alone detonating a bomb at his shrine." But again, a few years ago, a crazed Thai - perhaps hired by political puppeteers for reasons of superstition - managed to hammer the statue to pieces, before being beaten to death by shrine guards, eliminating any chance of finding out who might have hired him. But again, he was a psychologically unstable man.

"The man in the yellow T-shirt was just a decoy, because the real perpetrator couldn't be wearing yellow - the most conspicuous colour. But he must not be 'colour' sensitive. The T-shirt was bought in Indonesia.

"If he's the real McCoy, he could not have acted alone and must have had local accomplices.

The man in yellow can't be a foreigner, because he seemed to know his way around. He could be a Thai disguised to look like a foreigner. But wait, he could be a decoy, but a foreigner, to throw off the authorities.

"Two Thai men, one in a red T-shirt who gave up his seat to the man in yellow and stepped forward to stand next to the other, who was wearing white, were both caught on camera glancing back at the man in yellow. They could be his local accomplices. But wait, they can't be; they wouldn't have been able to move fast enough to escape the blast because, by stepping in front of the man in yellow, they placed themselves further from the exit. But again, there was a pause of about three minutes between the time the man in yellow put his backpack down under the stone bench and the time of the explosion, which would have left enough time for the two 'accomplices' to sneak away unnoticed. But no CCTV camera caught them fleeing."

These are just some of the more obvious holes and contradictions that riddle the theories surrounding the bombing. If we apply Aristotle's principle of non-contradiction, since an assertion cannot be both true and false, if the contradiction can be derived logically from the assertion, the assertion must be false. From a contradiction (or falsehood) anything follows - a rule known as the principle of explosion.

All of this is not to make light of the grave situation we are facing. What it is trying to say is that the government will have to come up with a clear, logical, straightforward, unbiased, airtight and precise finding at the end of its investigation to dispel doubts that would further erode the confidence of the Thai public and foreign visitors. There is no room for logical or investigative deficiencies. More importantly, favouritism, politics, ideology and backbiting must have no place in the process, which must deal in facts and truth alone. The real culprit/s - not scapegoats or fall guys - must be brought to justice.

Sink or swim, we are in this together, red shirts and elites, military and civilians. As a country, we can bicker over where to sit as we hurtle towards a brick wall, or we can unite and steer our way out of this dreadful abyss.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Theories-full-of-holes-versus-the-only-thing-that--30267000.html


-- The Nation 2015-08-20

[Pattaya28]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

[Thai at Heart]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

[Jingthing]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

Was it a similar bomb?

[zaphod reborn]

Of course people are speculating. No one expects Somyot to solve this case.

[Jingthing]

There is nothing at all wrong with speculating when the facts aren't established as long you're clear that you're speculating.

As opposed to making specious claims of "special" inside information.

[NongKhaiKid]

And what exactly is ' the only thing that matters ' ?

Is it really that justice is properly served or the govt using this to their own best advantage and coming with answers that suit their purposes ?

[NongKhaiKid]

And what exactly is ' the only thing that matters ' ?

Is it really that justice is properly served or the govt using this to their own best advantage and coming up with answers / findings that suit their purposes ?

Edited August 19, 2015 by NongKhaiKid

[Thai at Heart]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

Was it a similar bomb?

This was 15 years ago. A bus bomb in Beijing. The CCP closed down all transfers of money into Xinjiang for 2 months.

And they went into the villages and rounded up hundreds of men. Presumably never to be seen again.

[Thai at Heart]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

Was it a similar bomb?

This was 15 years ago. A bus bomb in Beijing. The CCP closed down all transfers of money into Xinjiang for 2 months. Had to fly to Beijing to get cash.

And they went into the villages and rounded up hundreds of men. Presumably never to be seen again.

[NeverSure]

According to The Guardian, China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists... LINK

[Usernames]

According to The Guardian, China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists... LINK

It would be a sad day for Thailand were it true that the country was now subject to large scale terrorist bombings because of the government's decision to align itself in lockstep with China.

[seahorse]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

Was it a similar bomb?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-27225308

"Witnesses told Xinhua news agency that the explosion appeared to be centred around luggage left on the ground between a station exit and a bus stop.

Photos on social media, which could not be independently verified, appeared to show suitcases and debris strewn across a street after the blast."

The bomb was in a backpack?

""I think the issue is that the problem [of attacks] in Xinjiang is getting worse," he told the BBC, adding that he believed incidents were becoming more professional and aimed at larger targets."

Now targets like Bangkok and the Erawan Shrine?

[Thai at Heart]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

Was it a similar bomb?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-27225308

"Witnesses told Xinhua news agency that the explosion appeared to be centred around luggage left on the ground between a station exit and a bus stop.

Photos on social media, which could not be independently verified, appeared to show suitcases and debris strewn across a street after the blast."

The bomb was in a backpack?

""I think the issue is that the problem [of attacks] in Xinjiang is getting worse," he told the BBC, adding that he believed incidents were becoming more professional and aimed at larger targets."

Now targets like Bangkok and the Erawan Shrine?

I don't think how a bomb is built is remotely relevant. Designs can be found on the Internet in seconds. But if I was angry that a friend of mine got sent back from a supposedly civilised country as thailand to get bullet in China, I would be very very pissed off

[DeepInTheForest]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

Practicing our non sequiturs again... ?

[Solomon]

At present, there are MORE than two theories.

Why is it that The Nation has so irresponsibly dismissed the other, equally plausible (and equally implausible) theories that either the Junta itself or a more extreme faction of the Junta or Yellow Shirt movement unhappy with the upcoming re-shuffle had some involvement.

The tired refrain from the anti-democrcy fanatics that Thaksin is responsible for all that is, was or may go wrong in Thailand has passed its used by date.

The fact is societies function better when they are open, when there is freedom of speech, freedom of movement and most importantly when sovereignty lies with the people and is exercised through the ballot box.

The conservative factions that have wrought such destruction upon the people and economy of Thailand over the last 10 years in their desperate, selfish and savage fight against equality, democracy and modernity are as much to blame for this recent tragedy as the terrorist in the yellow shirt with the backpack.

[Bezdomny]

Who don't want elections?

[Fat Haggis]

Was it a similar bomb?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-27225308

"Witnesses told Xinhua news agency that the explosion appeared to be centred around luggage left on the ground between a station exit and a bus stop.

Photos on social media, which could not be independently verified, appeared to show suitcases and debris strewn across a street after the blast."

The bomb was in a backpack?

""I think the issue is that the problem [of attacks] in Xinjiang is getting worse," he told the BBC, adding that he believed incidents were becoming more professional and aimed at larger targets."

Now targets like Bangkok and the Erawan Shrine?

I don't think how a bomb is built is remotely relevant. Designs can be found on the Internet in seconds. But if I was angry that a friend of mine got sent back from a supposedly civilised country as thailand to get bullet in China, I would be very very pissed off

Ricin can be made in a bog standard kitchen, and any pipe bomb can be made in a garage... actually it can be made in the same kitchen whilst waiting for the Ricin to be "cooked" !!

[selftaopath]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

That's what the Buffoons in Brown (BIB) do best, and are good for : ZERO.

[chainarong]

If we cast our minds back in History , about seventy years ago a person of influence and importance was found dead in bed with a bullet wound to the head, this was never solved, lots of theories though, so it is nothing new for the RTP to fail , so all theories are out there for the RTP and security to work on, that's what happens when your education system is so poor that problem solving is by accident rather than by design and with some help in the back ground from other countries agency's, like the AFP

[Charlie Croker]

One small point,

Why come to Bangkok to kill Chinese people?

I have a theory, that if you planted a bomb in another country, like say China for example.

You'd get a much bigger CP p/b ratio (Chinese people/per/bomb). You could effectively bank on killing more Chinese people in China.

Or even Chinatown for that matter.

Is this lopsided logic?

[Charlie Croker]

So conspiracy theories aside, they haven't got a clue who the bomber is. Just desperate conjecture. Evidence zero.

Exactly. I was in Xinjiang when the Uighur bombed Beijing. It wasn't pretty

Practicing our non sequiturs again... ?

Do non-sequiturs use bombs I wonder?

[Emster23]

"The man in yellow can't be a foreigner, because he seemed to know his way around."

This is plain stupid in so many ways..... they came to this conclusion because he somehow found one of Bangkok's main attractions? That he turned right instead of left when he got up? etc etc.....

[Just1Voice]

"The man in yellow can't be a foreigner, because he seemed to know his way around."

This statement is patiently asinine. I used to take trips around the north and north east of Thailand on a monthly basis. Loei, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Phitsanuloc, Uttaradit, Nakon Sawan, Chiang Dao, Chiang Rai, and never once had any problem quickly locating points of interest in any of these cities, and I'm sure as hell not a Thai.

[nev]

They try to detract the blame away from anyone Thai, they don't want it to be one of their own or believe to be Thai.

They will jump quickly to all kinds of conclusion's to put the blame on anyone but a Thai, bit like Koh Tao.

[bamnutsak]

Pauline is misdirecting, again.

[RJF]

According to The Guardian, China thinks it was aimed at Chinese tourists... LINK

Sure, for the Chinese govt it's as convenient to blame the Uighurs as it is for certain Thai to blame the redshirts. We know all the theories...please let's focus on the facts and hopefully solve this heinous act of terrorism!

[RJF]

"The man in yellow can't be a foreigner, because he seemed to know his way around."

This statement is patiently asinine. I used to take trips around the north and north east of Thailand on a monthly basis. Loei, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Phitsanuloc, Uttaradit, Nakon Sawan, Chiang Dao, Chiang Rai, and never once had any problem quickly locating points of interest in any of these cities, and I'm sure as hell not a Thai.

"The man in yellow can't be a foreigner, because he seemed to know his way around." If idiot statements like this still surprise you and invoke a reply using logic as demonstrated above, you're not that integrated yet

[Rykbanlor]

"The man in yellow can't be a foreigner, because he seemed to know his way around."

This statement is patiently asinine. I used to take trips around the north and north east of Thailand on a monthly basis. Loei, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Phitsanuloc, Uttaradit, Nakon Sawan, Chiang Dao, Chiang Rai, and never once had any problem quickly locating points of interest in any of these cities, and I'm sure as hell not a Thai.

I have come across a lot of people whom, even when I have told them that I have been here for 15 years, still seem overwhelmed by the fact that I know places and names and how to get around, and history etc.

This is not hugely surprising though, when they also still marvel at the fact I can eat thai food. (If I ever see a Thai fellow eating a burger, I want to point and mug and say, oooooh, you 're eating a burger. Geng maaak!).

[Jimlove]

Here we go again with these xenophobics claims : "No Thai could ever do ..." - deja vu Koh Tao ... but thats what Thais are famous for = never to learn anything ...