Naam Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 there are many ways to impress with charts. and it's nothing but BS to look at the "boyz" in Beijing who's currency suffered -3.5% without looking at the currencies of those "boyz" in the neighbourhood (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and India) who's currencies are not only down vs. USD but vs. CNY too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatOilWorker Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 there are many ways to impress with charts. and it's nothing but BS to look at the "boyz" in Beijing who's currency suffered -3.5% without looking at the currencies of those "boyz" in the neighbourhood (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and India) who's currencies are not only down vs. USD but vs. CNY too! CNY fix %.jpg AUD CNY.jpg NZD CNY.jpg SGD CNY.jpg THB CNY.jpg MYR CNY.jpg IDR CNY.jpg INR CNY.jpg So the redback is still overvalued. Got it, but my crystal ball says it will fall again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 (edited) How much Treasury bills can China sell before it will affect its international trading ability? Hard to say. It needs enough to convince people it can continue to pay in USD because its money isn't acceptable. Thailand typically holds $200 bil to $300 bil in US treasuries for the same purpose. Some people don't seem to understand that these countries have to hold these treasuries. The USD is the international currency of trade - the international unit of exchange and these countries buy and sell in USD even among themselves. When there's talk of a lower Chinese or Thai currency making exports cheaper for buyers it just means they have to give fewer USD to equal the home currency. Cheers. From Australia's central bank website. http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2015/mr-15-06.html The Reserve Bank of Australia has signed a new bilateral local currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China (PBC). As with the initial agreement in 2012, the main purposes of this agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms, and to strengthen bilateral financial cooperation. The agreement reflects the increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi (RMB) and to make RMB-denominated investments. China and Australia in $31bn currency swap - FT.com www.ft.com › World Mar 22, 2012 - China has signed a $31bn currency swap agreement with Australia, a step towards boosting the renminbi's profile in developed markets. European Central Bank and China strike currency swap deal www.ft.com › World › Asia-Pacific Oct 10, 2013 - The swap line, at Rmb350bn ($57bn), will be China's third largest. ... Central Bank and the People's Bank of China have established a currency swap ... governor of the Banque de France, said an ECB-PBoC swap line “would ... Brazil and China agree currency swap - FT.com - Financial ... www.ft.com › Markets Mar 26, 2013 - Brazil and China sealed a $30bn currency swap agreement on Tuesday ... expected to be of little use in day-to-day trade, the deal will guarantee. China signs currency swap deal with UAE - FT.com www.ft.com › World › Asia-Pacific Jan 18, 2012 - China and the United Arab Emirates signed a multibillion-dollar currency swap deal in the latest indication of the growing political and ... Russia Seals Deal With China on Currency Swap - WSJ Blogs blogs.wsj.com/.../russia-moves-closer-to-china-with-currency-swap-deal/ Oct 13, 2014 - The central banks of Russia and China have announced today a 150 billion yuan currency-swap agreement which would promote the ... China and Japan sign a currency swap agreement during ... www.chinainvestin.com/index.php/zh/china-offshore/news/1334 China and Japan sign a currency swap agreement during Christmas. By Wang Bin. The internationalization of the RMB did not stop its process over Christmas, ... Going in to this year the yuan was used in 2.17 percent of global trade. Which means for one thing the past January the yuan became the 5th most used currency in international and global trade. The USD going in to this year continued in its number one position as the premier global currency of trade, being used in 45% of all transactions, which is no change from previous years or past decades. The yuan became 5th most used after 'surpassing' the Canadian and Australian dollars, according to SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which electronically processes $6 Trillion a day at its Belgium center. (When the US wants to check out on the spot what the CCP Boyz are doing with T-Bills, they call SWIFT.) With all due respect to the Canadian and Aussie dollars, neither quite bestrides the global trading markets. Yuan trade has gone from infinitesimal to frozen in time in the quicksand sinkhole that is the CCP economy. Even banks in China counterfeit the yuan, the shadow banking system especially, so the 100 at the bottom left of the note has a gold treatment to assist in identifying whether the note is a true or a false note. The user flicks the note to determine if the gold treatment reflects in the light. If it does, the note is likely a true note rather than a counterfeit one. It's a rule of thumb almost all Chinese use but it is not an absolute safety feature. The Boyz in Beijing had expected the IMF in November to include the yuan in the SDR basket of currencies along with the USD, euro, pound, yen, which would have given official status to the yuan as a currency of global trade. The IMF review committee however last month recommended the Executive Board delay the decision to November next year, 2016. The IMF Executive Board is now expected to announce in November that the yuan will be tentatively scheduled to be included in the SDR basket subject to another review in November next year. If the yuan passes muster in November 2016, inclusion would become effective in January 2017. In short, the IMF has punted the yuan basket downfield. Given recent developments in the CCP China concerning the yuan and the economy, the IMF is taking a wait and see position and posture. USA has veto power over the decisions of the IMF Executive Board. So the CCP Boyz might want to think a little bit more about all this stuff of angrily selling $500 bn of T-Bills over the next six weeks, and of trying to blame the US for self-created calamities. While the IMF had wanted to provide a token accommodation of the yuan, objective realities say even the IMF has to hold off on this. Very probably indefinitely. Who wants this CCP yuan that is soon to become a collector's item and a new museum attraction globally. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/Chinas-yuan-joins-top-5-most-used-global-currencies/articleshow/46038438.cms Edited September 1, 2015 by Publicus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 (edited) Not a dent eh ? Nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers count under domestic US mfg. All of which are liabilities and have no productive utility. And financed largely by China and Japan. As was proved with the chart posted showing the largest holders of US debt. why waste time to discuss the brushstroke and the paint mix of an old master with blind people? My photo against your old master. A Chinese day trader reacts as he watches a stock ticker at a local brokerage house on August 27, 2015 in Beijing, China. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images) It's over his head too. Edited September 1, 2015 by Publicus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 the boyz in China are heart broken. today at 13.30 GMT they realised that their currency CNY has incurred the terrible loss of minus 2.49% in just 22 calendar days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 there are many ways to impress with charts. and it's nothing but BS to look at the "boyz" in Beijing who's currency suffered -3.5% without looking at the currencies of those "boyz" in the neighbourhood (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and India) who's currencies are not only down vs. USD but vs. CNY too! CNY fix %.jpg AUD CNY.jpg NZD CNY.jpg SGD CNY.jpg THB CNY.jpg MYR CNY.jpg IDR CNY.jpg INR CNY.jpg So the redback is still overvalued. Got it, but my crystal ball says it will fall again. i don't have a crystal ball and personally i don't care a flying fàrt whether CNY goes up or down vs. any currency. all i see are facts and these facts tell me it is highly unlikely that the fall will match the -15.1% of AUD, -21.8 of NZD, -7% of SGD, -10.5% of THB or -20% of MYR of the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 How much Treasury bills can China sell before it will affect its international trading ability? Hard to say. It needs enough to convince people it can continue to pay in USD because its money isn't acceptable. Thailand typically holds $200 bil to $300 bil in US treasuries for the same purpose. Some people don't seem to understand that these countries have to hold these treasuries. The USD is the international currency of trade - the international unit of exchange and these countries buy and sell in USD even among themselves. When there's talk of a lower Chinese or Thai currency making exports cheaper for buyers it just means they have to give fewer USD to equal the home currency. Cheers. From Australia's central bank website.http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2015/mr-15-06.html The Reserve Bank of Australia has signed a new bilateral local currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China (PBC). As with the initial agreement in 2012, the main purposes of this agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms, and to strengthen bilateral financial cooperation. The agreement reflects the increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi (RMB) and to make RMB-denominated investments. China and Australia in $31bn currency swap - FT.com www.ft.com World Mar 22, 2012 - China has signed a $31bn currency swap agreement with Australia, a step towards boosting the renminbi's profile in developed markets. European Central Bank and China strike currency swap deal www.ft.com World Asia-Pacific Oct 10, 2013 - The swap line, at Rmb350bn ($57bn), will be China's third largest. ... Central Bank and the People's Bank of China have established a currency swap ... governor of the Banque de France, said an ECB-PBoC swap line would ... Brazil and China agree currency swap - FT.com - Financial ... www.ft.com Markets Mar 26, 2013 - Brazil and China sealed a $30bn currency swap agreement on Tuesday ... expected to be of little use in day-to-day trade, the deal will guarantee. China signs currency swap deal with UAE - FT.com www.ft.com World Asia-Pacific Jan 18, 2012 - China and the United Arab Emirates signed a multibillion-dollar currency swap deal in the latest indication of the growing political and ... Russia Seals Deal With China on Currency Swap - WSJ Blogs blogs.wsj.com/.../russia-moves-closer-to-china-with-currency-swap-deal/ Oct 13, 2014 - The central banks of Russia and China have announced today a 150 billion yuan currency-swap agreement which would promote the ... China and Japan sign a currency swap agreement during ... www.chinainvestin.com/index.php/zh/china-offshore/news/1334 China and Japan sign a currency swap agreement during Christmas. By Wang Bin. The internationalization of the RMB did not stop its process over Christmas, ... Going in to this year the yuan was used in 2.17 percent of global trade. Which means for one thing the past January the yuan became the 5th most used currency in international and global trade. The USD going in to this year continued in its number one position as the premier global currency of trade, being used in 45% of all transactions, which is no change from previous years or past decades. The yuan became 5th most used after 'surpassing' the Canadian and Australian dollars, according to SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which electronically processes $6 Trillion a day at its Belgium center. (When the US wants to check out on the spot what the CCP Boyz are doing with T-Bills, they call SWIFT.) With all due respect to the Canadian and Aussie dollars, neither quite bestrides the global trading markets. Yuan trade has gone from infinitesimal to frozen in time in the quicksand sinkhole that is the CCP economy. Even banks in China counterfeit the yuan, the shadow banking system especially, so the 100 at the bottom left of the note has a gold treatment to assist in identifying whether the note is a true or a false note. The user flicks the note to determine if the gold treatment reflects in the light. If it does, the note is likely a true note rather than a counterfeit one. It's a rule of thumb almost all Chinese use but it is not an absolute safety feature. The Boyz in Beijing had expected the IMF in November to include the yuan in the SDR basket of currencies along with the USD, euro, pound, yen, which would have given official status to the yuan as a currency of global trade. The IMF review committee however last month recommended the Executive Board delay the decision to November next year, 2016. The IMF Executive Board is now expected to announce in November that the yuan will be tentatively scheduled to be included in the SDR basket subject to another review in November next year. If the yuan passes muster in November 2016, inclusion would become effective in January 2017. In short, the IMF has punted the yuan basket downfield. Given recent developments in the CCP China concerning the yuan and the economy, the IMF is taking a wait and see position and posture. USA has veto power over the decisions of the IMF Executive Board. So the CCP Boyz might want to think a little bit more about all this stuff of angrily selling $500 bn of T-Bills over the next six weeks, and of trying to blame the US for self-created calamities. While the IMF had wanted to provide a token accommodation of the yuan, objective realities say even the IMF has to hold off on this. Very probably indefinitely. Who wants this CCP yuan that is soon to become a collector's item and a new museum attraction globally. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/Chinas-yuan-joins-top-5-most-used-global-currencies/articleshow/46038438.cms Bilateral currency swaps are taking the place of USD conversion. Hence why so many have been written up the world over. Not just China. You see, when trades are made, it's just an accounting ledger. And the only time the currency really comes into play is when the trade is imbalanced one way or the other. And the swaps only have to cover the balances. Brazil and China could do a trillion Euro worth of trade and the imbalance might only be 60 million. So saying that the Yuan or anything but the USD isn't big enough is a red herring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 (edited) the boyz in China are heart broken. today at 13.30 GMT they realised that their currency CNY has incurred the terrible loss of minus 2.49% in just 22 calendar days. Well that changes everything The yuan had been appreciating which is strictly against CCP rules, so the Boys decided to go for it and to go for at least a 10% devaluation and now they have this. The bottom line thus far is that the CCP Boyz are neither here nor there and for all their time, effort and money the only thing they've done is show the world their reverse midas touch. The CCP Boyz are still completely dumbfounded at the quick and strong global reaction to the precipitous devaluation. As with too many others, the CCP Boyz had no clue what might happen offshore, in the real world of global markets. Edited September 1, 2015 by Publicus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 From Australia's central bank website.http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2015/mr-15-06.html The Reserve Bank of Australia has signed a new bilateral local currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China (PBC). As with the initial agreement in 2012, the main purposes of this agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms, and to strengthen bilateral financial cooperation. The agreement reflects the increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi (RMB) and to make RMB-denominated investments. China and Australia in $31bn currency swap - FT.com www.ft.com World Mar 22, 2012 - China has signed a $31bn currency swap agreement with Australia, a step towards boosting the renminbi's profile in developed markets. European Central Bank and China strike currency swap deal www.ft.com World Asia-Pacific Oct 10, 2013 - The swap line, at Rmb350bn ($57bn), will be China's third largest. ... Central Bank and the People's Bank of China have established a currency swap ... governor of the Banque de France, said an ECB-PBoC swap line would ... Brazil and China agree currency swap - FT.com - Financial ... www.ft.com Markets Mar 26, 2013 - Brazil and China sealed a $30bn currency swap agreement on Tuesday ... expected to be of little use in day-to-day trade, the deal will guarantee. China signs currency swap deal with UAE - FT.com www.ft.com World Asia-Pacific Jan 18, 2012 - China and the United Arab Emirates signed a multibillion-dollar currency swap deal in the latest indication of the growing political and ... Russia Seals Deal With China on Currency Swap - WSJ Blogs blogs.wsj.com/.../russia-moves-closer-to-china-with-currency-swap-deal/ Oct 13, 2014 - The central banks of Russia and China have announced today a 150 billion yuan currency-swap agreement which would promote the ... China and Japan sign a currency swap agreement during ... www.chinainvestin.com/index.php/zh/china-offshore/news/1334 China and Japan sign a currency swap agreement during Christmas. By Wang Bin. The internationalization of the RMB did not stop its process over Christmas, ... Going in to this year the yuan was used in 2.17 percent of global trade. Which means for one thing the past January the yuan became the 5th most used currency in international and global trade. The USD going in to this year continued in its number one position as the premier global currency of trade, being used in 45% of all transactions, which is no change from previous years or past decades. The yuan became 5th most used after 'surpassing' the Canadian and Australian dollars, according to SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which electronically processes $6 Trillion a day at its Belgium center. (When the US wants to check out on the spot what the CCP Boyz are doing with T-Bills, they call SWIFT.) With all due respect to the Canadian and Aussie dollars, neither quite bestrides the global trading markets. Yuan trade has gone from infinitesimal to frozen in time in the quicksand sinkhole that is the CCP economy. Even banks in China counterfeit the yuan, the shadow banking system especially, so the 100 at the bottom left of the note has a gold treatment to assist in identifying whether the note is a true or a false note. The user flicks the note to determine if the gold treatment reflects in the light. If it does, the note is likely a true note rather than a counterfeit one. It's a rule of thumb almost all Chinese use but it is not an absolute safety feature. The Boyz in Beijing had expected the IMF in November to include the yuan in the SDR basket of currencies along with the USD, euro, pound, yen, which would have given official status to the yuan as a currency of global trade. The IMF review committee however last month recommended the Executive Board delay the decision to November next year, 2016. The IMF Executive Board is now expected to announce in November that the yuan will be tentatively scheduled to be included in the SDR basket subject to another review in November next year. If the yuan passes muster in November 2016, inclusion would become effective in January 2017. In short, the IMF has punted the yuan basket downfield. Given recent developments in the CCP China concerning the yuan and the economy, the IMF is taking a wait and see position and posture. USA has veto power over the decisions of the IMF Executive Board. So the CCP Boyz might want to think a little bit more about all this stuff of angrily selling $500 bn of T-Bills over the next six weeks, and of trying to blame the US for self-created calamities. While the IMF had wanted to provide a token accommodation of the yuan, objective realities say even the IMF has to hold off on this. Very probably indefinitely. Who wants this CCP yuan that is soon to become a collector's item and a new museum attraction globally. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/Chinas-yuan-joins-top-5-most-used-global-currencies/articleshow/46038438.cms Bilateral currency swaps are taking the place of USD conversion. Hence why so many have been written up the world over. Not just China. You see, when trades are made, it's just an accounting ledger. And the only time the currency really comes into play is when the trade is imbalanced one way or the other. And the swaps only have to cover the balances. Brazil and China could do a trillion Euro worth of trade and the imbalance might only be 60 million. So saying that the Yuan or anything but the USD isn't big enough is a red herring The yuan last year was used in 2.17 percent of global trade deals, transactions, exchanges, transfers, swaps. Yes the trades are done using an accounting ledger, which applies to everyone. You have the forex dough in your ledger or you don't. It's not difficult to understand or to operate. So going into this year the yuan was used in 2.17 percent of global trade and this to say the least has not been a good year for the yuan. Next year will not be any better for the yuan. The Boyz can only hope because not only have they run through of their box of bizarre tools and toys, they have run out of blue smoke and mirrors too. Although reading the post I see there's still some blue smoke floating around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 the boyz in China are heart broken. today at 13.30 GMT they realised that their currency CNY has incurred the terrible loss of minus 2.49% in just 22 calendar days. Well that changes everything The yuan had been appreciating which is strictly against CCP rules, so the Boys decided to go for it and to go for at least a 10% devaluation and now they have this. The bottom line thus far is that the CCP Boyz are neither here nor there and for all their time, effort and money the only thing they've done is show the world their reverse midas touch. The CCP Boyz are still completely dumbfounded at the quick and strong global reaction to the precipitous devaluation. As with too many others, the CCP Boyz had no clue what might happen offshore, in the real world of global markets. More capital flight out of China equals more treasury selling by China. They call them reserves for a reason. And unlike 2008 where the US had China there to backstop them with hundreds of billions of treasury buying , its China doing the selling. Time for the Fed to come in and take up the slack with QE 4. But wait a minute, the Fed is still talking about selling bonds this September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August has now come in at 47.3 which is a further decrease from the final July figure of 47.8 and the 49.4 of June. Caixin is a Chinese private corporate entity based in Beijing that continually works at the edges (one reporter was just arrested for reporting an unknown government intervention in the stock market). (Caixin = tie-shin.) The spread between the onshore yuan CNY and the offshore yuan in Hong Kong CNH is the widest it has been in four years. This was not good four years ago but it is disastrous now as the Boyz personal People's Bank of China controls both and is supposed to keep them tightly together. This also indicates a political problem for the Boyz as HKG is using the present chaos in Beijing to move away from it and more yet toward global markets. http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-best-hope-for-its-economy-is-fading-2015-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 As I have been saying, emerging market turmoil , especially China vis a vis the US, is putting upward pressure on western interest rates. Here is Deutsche Bank today saying just that. And even the reduction of accumulation of reserves is putting pressure on interest rates and the USD. Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields and the USD. Declining FX reserves should place upward pressure on developed market yields given that the bulk of reserves are allocated to fixed income. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. The path to “normalization” will likely remain slow and fraught with difficulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 (edited) The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States, there is truly no doubt about that. The problem for the Boyz is that they know it is for certain that in doing so they go down completely while the Western market economies would instead be slowed and set back. No one is going to replace the USD as the global currency of trade or as the global reserve currency and no one is going to dislodge the United States.. The CCP Boyz also well know the one country they can rely on to be rescued is the United States. The EU could move in with the euro and their capital markets but the Europeans are not geared for such massive emergency rescue operations whereas the US is, having restored European civilisation in the years immediately following WW2. The US went to aid Russia after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, until 2005 when Putin began to assert his Marxism-Leninism-Tsarism. Europe all the while looked on. The USA has always been looking at the CCP China as the collapsed Middle Kingdom...once again. This time the CCP are a nuclear power and the Chinese people are well known for their eagerness to drive the emperor into the hills once he's indulged to the point of ruining China and the dynasty. The CCP Boyz are a new and young, very nervous dynasty of authoritarians and autocrats in business suits. The United States will not, because it cannot, sit by while the CCP China dissolves into chaos or anarchy. The CCP Boyz know this and the Boyz know they are vulnerable, which is why they have the 800,000 strong paramilitary People's Armed Police in 46 divisions distributed in all provinces and major cities. The PAP gets more money than do the entire CCP military forces. If the CCP gets driven out of power, or by design tactically and temporarily quits power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. If the CCP asserts and maintains its power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. The United States has known for a long time that it will need to intervene in one way or the other. So do the CCP Boyz in Beijing know it. The US and the world cannot afford another May 4th Movement in China which began with the end of the emperor system in 1911 and did not end until 1927 but in reality continued through 1949 to include the Cultural Revolution and was not closed out until Tiananmen Square June 4-5 1989. Nothing like it. Edited September 2, 2015 by Publicus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States, there is truly no doubt about that. The problem for the Boyz is that they know it is for certain that in doing so they go down completely while the Western market economies would instead be slowed and set back. No one is going to replace the USD as the global currency of trade or as the global reserve currency and no one is going to dislodge the United States.. The CCP Boyz also well know the one country they can rely on to be rescued is the United States. The EU could move in with the euro and their capital markets but the Europeans are not geared for such massive emergency rescue operations whereas the US is, having restored European civilisation in the years immediately following WW2. The US went to aid Russia after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, until 2005 when Putin began to assert his Marxism-Leninism-Tsarism. Europe all the while looked on. The USA has always been looking at the CCP China as the collapsed Middle Kingdom...once again. This time the CCP are a nuclear power and the Chinese people are well known for their eagerness to drive the emperor into the hills once he's indulged to the point of ruining China and the dynasty. The CCP Boyz are a new and young, very nervous dynasty of authoritarians and autocrats in business suits. The United States will not, because it cannot, sit by while the CCP China dissolves into chaos or anarchy. The CCP Boyz know this and the Boyz know they are vulnerable, which is why they have the 800,000 strong paramilitary People's Armed Police in 46 divisions distributed in all provinces and major cities. The PAP gets more money than do the entire CCP military forces. If the CCP gets driven out of power, or by design tactically and temporarily quits power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. If the CCP asserts and maintains its power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. The United States has known for a long time that it will need to intervene in one way or the other. So do the CCP Boyz in Beijing know it. The US and the world cannot afford another May 4th Movement in China which began with the end of the emperor system in 1911 and did not end until 1927 but in reality continued through 1949 to include the Cultural Revolution and was not closed out until Tiananmen Square June 4-5 1989. Nothing like it. Now you are making excuses ? The Chinese will screw up the US market economy ? For 5 pages you said that China has no effect on the "strong " US economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States, there is truly no doubt about that. The problem for the Boyz is that they know it is for certain that in doing so they go down completely while the Western market economies would instead be slowed and set back. No one is going to replace the USD as the global currency of trade or as the global reserve currency and no one is going to dislodge the United States.. The CCP Boyz also well know the one country they can rely on to be rescued is the United States. The EU could move in with the euro and their capital markets but the Europeans are not geared for such massive emergency rescue operations whereas the US is, having restored European civilisation in the years immediately following WW2. The US went to aid Russia after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, until 2005 when Putin began to assert his Marxism-Leninism-Tsarism. Europe all the while looked on. The USA has always been looking at the CCP China as the collapsed Middle Kingdom...once again. This time the CCP are a nuclear power and the Chinese people are well known for their eagerness to drive the emperor into the hills once he's indulged to the point of ruining China and the dynasty. The CCP Boyz are a new and young, very nervous dynasty of authoritarians and autocrats in business suits. The United States will not, because it cannot, sit by while the CCP China dissolves into chaos or anarchy. The CCP Boyz know this and the Boyz know they are vulnerable, which is why they have the 800,000 strong paramilitary People's Armed Police in 46 divisions distributed in all provinces and major cities. The PAP gets more money than do the entire CCP military forces. If the CCP gets driven out of power, or by design tactically and temporarily quits power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. If the CCP asserts and maintains its power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. The United States has known for a long time that it will need to intervene in one way or the other. So do the CCP Boyz in Beijing know it. The US and the world cannot afford another May 4th Movement in China which began with the end of the emperor system in 1911 and did not end until 1927 but in reality continued through 1949 to include the Cultural Revolution and was not closed out until Tiananmen Square June 4-5 1989. Nothing like it. Now you are making excuses ? The Chinese will screw up the US market economy ? For 5 pages you said that China has no effect on the "strong " US economy. You got the wrong guy, which is no surprise. I'm the guy talking about the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the CCP China who has also and in spots been responding somewhat to your off the page Zero Hedge specifics that are out in a lunar orbit anyway, which is why I ignore replying to most of your posts. Youse guyz out there just keep cooking up nonsense and presenting it which means that dealing with your Austrian school of Mad Max economics drivel is always a waste of time because it and its followers have little or no connection to reality. I've been clear the US economy can withstand the Boyz selling off $500 bn of T-Bills over the next six weeks if that is what they do in fact do. I've also been clear the CCP is stuffed and cooked either way, and that the Boyz especially know the only people who are going to take the lead to come to their aid and assistance are the United States. I reiterate there is too much at risk for the USA and globally for the United States to stand idle while the CCP China dissolves into the China of old. The CCP Boys can cause problems for the Western and other market economies if they want to. Thing is, the Boyz know that, while the market economies will sustain themselves throughout, it will mean the end of the People's Republic of China and its owner/operator, the Chinese Communist Party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boomerangutang Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Thing is, the Boyz know that, while the market economies will sustain themselves throughout, it will mean the end of the People's Republic of China and its owner/operator, the Chinese Communist Party. For 40 years I've been hoping the politburo non-smiling power brokers in Beijing (with propelyne glycol coursing in their veins) will implode in their own MSG laden cauldron of hot oil, ....which will enable Tibet to once again be a free country. I think the chances of that happening in my lifetime just went from 2 to 8%. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States, there is truly no doubt about that. The problem for the Boyz is that they know it is for certain that in doing so they go down completely while the Western market economies would instead be slowed and set back. No one is going to replace the USD as the global currency of trade or as the global reserve currency and no one is going to dislodge the United States.. The CCP Boyz also well know the one country they can rely on to be rescued is the United States. The EU could move in with the euro and their capital markets but the Europeans are not geared for such massive emergency rescue operations whereas the US is, having restored European civilisation in the years immediately following WW2. The US went to aid Russia after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, until 2005 when Putin began to assert his Marxism-Leninism-Tsarism. Europe all the while looked on. The USA has always been looking at the CCP China as the collapsed Middle Kingdom...once again. This time the CCP are a nuclear power and the Chinese people are well known for their eagerness to drive the emperor into the hills once he's indulged to the point of ruining China and the dynasty. The CCP Boyz are a new and young, very nervous dynasty of authoritarians and autocrats in business suits. The United States will not, because it cannot, sit by while the CCP China dissolves into chaos or anarchy. The CCP Boyz know this and the Boyz know they are vulnerable, which is why they have the 800,000 strong paramilitary People's Armed Police in 46 divisions distributed in all provinces and major cities. The PAP gets more money than do the entire CCP military forces. If the CCP gets driven out of power, or by design tactically and temporarily quits power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. If the CCP asserts and maintains its power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. The United States has known for a long time that it will need to intervene in one way or the other. So do the CCP Boyz in Beijing know it. The US and the world cannot afford another May 4th Movement in China which began with the end of the emperor system in 1911 and did not end until 1927 but in reality continued through 1949 to include the Cultural Revolution and was not closed out until Tiananmen Square June 4-5 1989. Nothing like it. Now you are making excuses ? The Chinese will screw up the US market economy ? For 5 pages you said that China has no effect on the "strong " US economy. You got the wrong guy, which is no surprise. I'm the guy talking about the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the CCP China who has also and in spots been responding somewhat to your off the page Zero Hedge specifics that are out in a lunar orbit anyway, which is why I ignore replying to most of your posts. Youse guyz out there just keep cooking up nonsense and presenting it which means that dealing with your Austrian school of Mad Max economics drivel is always a waste of time because it and its followers have little or no connection to reality. I've been clear the US economy can withstand the Boyz selling off $500 bn of T-Bills over the next six weeks if that is what they do in fact do. I've also been clear the CCP is stuffed and cooked either way, and that the Boyz especially know the only people who are going to take the lead to come to their aid and assistance are the United States. I reiterate there is too much at risk for the USA and globally for the United States to stand idle while the CCP China dissolves into the China of old. The CCP Boys can cause problems for the Western and other market economies if they want to. Thing is, the Boyz know that, while the market economies will sustain themselves throughout, it will mean the end of the People's Republic of China and its owner/operator, the Chinese Communist Party. you said this The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States And I don't have the wrong guy. The fact that you think the US is a market economy is rich. So far, as China goes, so the US goes. China's stock market sold off, then the US market sold off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States, there is truly no doubt about that. The problem for the Boyz is that they know it is for certain that in doing so they go down completely while the Western market economies would instead be slowed and set back. No one is going to replace the USD as the global currency of trade or as the global reserve currency and no one is going to dislodge the United States.. The CCP Boyz also well know the one country they can rely on to be rescued is the United States. The EU could move in with the euro and their capital markets but the Europeans are not geared for such massive emergency rescue operations whereas the US is, having restored European civilisation in the years immediately following WW2. The US went to aid Russia after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, until 2005 when Putin began to assert his Marxism-Leninism-Tsarism. Europe all the while looked on. The USA has always been looking at the CCP China as the collapsed Middle Kingdom...once again. This time the CCP are a nuclear power and the Chinese people are well known for their eagerness to drive the emperor into the hills once he's indulged to the point of ruining China and the dynasty. The CCP Boyz are a new and young, very nervous dynasty of authoritarians and autocrats in business suits. The United States will not, because it cannot, sit by while the CCP China dissolves into chaos or anarchy. The CCP Boyz know this and the Boyz know they are vulnerable, which is why they have the 800,000 strong paramilitary People's Armed Police in 46 divisions distributed in all provinces and major cities. The PAP gets more money than do the entire CCP military forces. If the CCP gets driven out of power, or by design tactically and temporarily quits power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. If the CCP asserts and maintains its power, the whole place will be absolute chaos. The United States has known for a long time that it will need to intervene in one way or the other. So do the CCP Boyz in Beijing know it. The US and the world cannot afford another May 4th Movement in China which began with the end of the emperor system in 1911 and did not end until 1927 but in reality continued through 1949 to include the Cultural Revolution and was not closed out until Tiananmen Square June 4-5 1989. Nothing like it. Now you are making excuses ? The Chinese will screw up the US market economy ? For 5 pages you said that China has no effect on the "strong " US economy. You got the wrong guy, which is no surprise. I'm the guy talking about the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the CCP China who has also and in spots been responding somewhat to your off the page Zero Hedge specifics that are out in a lunar orbit anyway, which is why I ignore replying to most of your posts. Youse guyz out there just keep cooking up nonsense and presenting it which means that dealing with your Austrian school of Mad Max economics drivel is always a waste of time because it and its followers have little or no connection to reality. I've been clear the US economy can withstand the Boyz selling off $500 bn of T-Bills over the next six weeks if that is what they do in fact do. I've also been clear the CCP is stuffed and cooked either way, and that the Boyz especially know the only people who are going to take the lead to come to their aid and assistance are the United States. I reiterate there is too much at risk for the USA and globally for the United States to stand idle while the CCP China dissolves into the China of old. The CCP Boys can cause problems for the Western and other market economies if they want to. Thing is, the Boyz know that, while the market economies will sustain themselves throughout, it will mean the end of the People's Republic of China and its owner/operator, the Chinese Communist Party. you said this The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States And I don't have the wrong guy. The fact that you think the US is a market economy is rich. So far, as China goes, so the US goes. China's stock market sold off, then the US market sold off. That is your shtick that you've been banging on throughout the thread, it's not mine. My statement was made as a part of a body that discusses and focuses on the CCP boyz in Beijing and their wholey owned subsidiary, the People's Republic of China. Your Austrian school of Mad Max economics predictably focuses on the United States and how the CCP Boyz in Beijing will succeed in overwhelming or overcoming it, by hook or by crook. The movement is in the opposite direction, as the United States continues to develop into a new century while the right wing emerging economies submerge, the CCP China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey along with a number of others. Your swaps don't amount to beans. Your determination to tie the USA to the CCP Boyz as if they were one and the same was stillborn. The Austrian school of economists are deficient in their analysis because they completely fail to factor in the differences between the USA and the CCP of culture, intellect, history, attitude, modernism among other vital determinants. There is no use or purpose to spend time focusing on the Mad Max theorists who are single minded against the United States, so I do not and I will not as the thread may go forward from here. The thread is about the CCP Boyz in Beijing because the place currently falling apart at the seams is the CCP China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 you said this The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States And I don't have the wrong guy. The fact that you think the US is a market economy is rich. So far, as China goes, so the US goes. China's stock market sold off, then the US market sold off. That is your shtick that you've been banging on throughout the thread, it's not mine. My statement was made as a part of a body that discusses and focuses on the CCP boyz in Beijing and their wholey owned subsidiary, the People's Republic of China. Your Austrian school of Mad Max economics predictably focuses on the United States and how the CCP Boyz in Beijing will succeed in overwhelming or overcoming it, by hook or by crook. The movement is in the opposite direction, as the United States continues to develop into a new century while the right wing emerging economies submerge, the CCP China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey along with a number of others. Your swaps don't amount to beans. Your determination to tie the USA to the CCP Boyz as if they were one and the same was stillborn. The Austrian school of economists are deficient in their analysis because they completely fail to factor in the differences between the USA and the CCP of culture, intellect, history, attitude, modernism among other vital determinants. There is no use or purpose to spend time focusing on the Mad Max theorists who are single minded against the United States, so I do not and I will not as the thread may go forward from here. The thread is about the CCP Boyz in Beijing because the place currently falling apart at the seams is the CCP China. I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 (edited) I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. What part of this don't you understand?: "U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports (from the US to China) totaled $141 billion; Imports (from China) totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012. Apr 4, 2014." LINK The US has a GDP of $18 trillion. Just what part of the relatively tiny sum of a $298 billion trade deficit with China is such a big deal to you? What is it about China's manufacturing going to the US that makes you swoon? Manufacturing within the US accounts for 12% of US GDP and the average (US blue collar) worker in this segment makes about $70,000 per year. Link How much does the average Chinese manufacturing worker earn by comparison? China is the Beotch of the USTM, providing cheap labor to manufacture a tiny part of what enters the US economy, and US companies such as well known clothing and tech retailers actually make the big bucks on the US retail end. Where is your head in all of this? Edited September 2, 2015 by NeverSure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. What part of this don't you understand?: "U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports (from the US to China) totaled $141 billion; Imports (from China) totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012. Apr 4, 2014." LINK The US has a GDP of $18 trillion. Just what part of the relatively tiny sum of a $298 billion trade deficit with China is such a big deal to you? What is it about China's manufacturing going to the US that makes you swoon? Manufacturing within the US accounts for 12% of US GDP and the average (US blue collar) worker in this segment makes about $70,000 per year. Link How much does the average Chinese manufacturing worker earn by comparison? China is the Beotch of the USTM, providing cheap labor to manufacture a tiny part of what enters the US economy, and US companies such as well known clothing and tech retailers actually make the big bucks on the US retail end. Where is your head in all of this? On what planet is a 298 billion dollar trade deficit with one country considered small ? Not on the planet where I reside. China is the US's biggest legitimate creditor. (lets just pretend that its not a ponzi for a minute) Now remove all of that credit and tell me with a straight face that the US won't be effected. You keep looking at raw trade data. Look at the current account. The more bonds China sells, the higher interest rates will go. Rising interest rates on external debt makes the current account deficit go up even if the trade deficit is closing. Do you think the Fed can take up China's slack ? So much for rate rises in September eh. That is called QE 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 you said this The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States And I don't have the wrong guy. The fact that you think the US is a market economy is rich. So far, as China goes, so the US goes. China's stock market sold off, then the US market sold off. That is your shtick that you've been banging on throughout the thread, it's not mine. My statement was made as a part of a body that discusses and focuses on the CCP boyz in Beijing and their wholey owned subsidiary, the People's Republic of China. Your Austrian school of Mad Max economics predictably focuses on the United States and how the CCP Boyz in Beijing will succeed in overwhelming or overcoming it, by hook or by crook. The movement is in the opposite direction, as the United States continues to develop into a new century while the right wing emerging economies submerge, the CCP China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey along with a number of others. Your swaps don't amount to beans. Your determination to tie the USA to the CCP Boyz as if they were one and the same was stillborn. The Austrian school of economists are deficient in their analysis because they completely fail to factor in the differences between the USA and the CCP of culture, intellect, history, attitude, modernism among other vital determinants. There is no use or purpose to spend time focusing on the Mad Max theorists who are single minded against the United States, so I do not and I will not as the thread may go forward from here. The thread is about the CCP Boyz in Beijing because the place currently falling apart at the seams is the CCP China. I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. My posts have never said you are "pro-Communist party of China," nor have my posts said you believe in democracy in the United States. This is because you are not pro CCP nor are you pro-USA. My posts in response to your posts have referred to the Austrian school of economics and their Mad Max visions of a cataclysmic post-USA world that they desire, advocate and enthusiastically predict to be inevitable. A post-USA Mad Max world that is to the cheer of the Austrian school illiberal; anti-liberal, and, in which Putin is their hero, inspiration, Grand Wizard. So youse guyz have your purposes, goals, objectives, beliefs, all of which are predicated on the United States going down and out. I said I don't respond to each or many posts that present one fabricated particular after another concocted particular that tries to support this crackpot world view, and that the thread focuses on the CCP Boyz and the CCP China, not the United States. My focus is on the CCP while your focus and determination is on the USA. Youse guyz see every new and challenging event or development as fulfilling your demented passions against the United States. I conversely have noted the CCP Boyz can do damage but only on their way down and out and that the USA and the liberal Western democracies will be no worse for the wear of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 What part of this don't you understand?: "U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports (from the US to China) totaled $141 billion; Imports (from China) totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012. Apr 4, 2014." LINK The US has a GDP of $18 trillion. Just what part of the relatively tiny sum of a $298 billion trade deficit with China is such a big deal to you? What is it about China's manufacturing going to the US that makes you swoon? Manufacturing within the US accounts for 12% of US GDP and the average (US blue collar) worker in this segment makes about $70,000 per year. Link How much does the average Chinese manufacturing worker earn by comparison? China is the Beotch of the USTM, providing cheap labor to manufacture a tiny part of what enters the US economy, and US companies such as well known clothing and tech retailers actually make the big bucks on the US retail end. Where is your head in all of this? On what planet is a 298 billion dollar trade deficit with one country considered small ? Not on the planet where I reside. China is the US's biggest legitimate creditor. (lets just pretend that its not a ponzi for a minute) Now remove all of that credit and tell me with a straight face that the US won't be effected. You keep looking at raw trade data. Look at the current account. The more bonds China sells, the higher interest rates will go. Rising interest rates on external debt makes the current account deficit go up even if the trade deficit is closing. Do you think the Fed can take up China's slack ? So much for rate rises in September eh. That is called QE 4 You changed the subject again. What part of the minuscule trade deficit with China compared to the US manufacturing numbers and GDP makes you so awe stricken with China? Huh? You have no clue about holders of US debt. You are showing only part of external debt. Your numbers don't add up to the known $18 tril or so - see? Entities in the US including myself own most of the US debt. US trust funds, retirement funds, private holders, banks... Most of the US debt is internal. China holds 1.3 tril. The debt is 18 tril. That means that China holds only about 7.7% of the US debt. What is it about you that is so overwhelmed with China when the numbers don't add up to your lofty position? Net imports from China are a minuscule portion of the US GDP and China in its Forex is reported to hold about 7.7% of US debt but it's in a massive liquidity crunch. "Do you think the Fed can take up China's slack ? So much for rate rises in September eh. That is called QE 4." Are you dreaming? China can't push those bonds back on the Fed until their due date!!! It's the US Fed that has the option of taking them back and ruining China's foreign trade reserves in dollars!!!!! Your unsupportable positions are getting old. Really old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. My posts have never said you are "pro-Communist party of China," nor have my posts said you believe in democracy in the United States. This is because you are not pro CCP nor are you pro-USA. My posts in response to your posts have referred to the Austrian school of economics and their Mad Max visions of a cataclysmic post-USA world that they desire, advocate and enthusiastically predict to be inevitable. A post-USA Mad Max world that is to the cheer of the Austrian school illiberal; anti-liberal, and, in which Putin is their hero, inspiration, Grand Wizard. So youse guyz have your purposes, goals, objectives, beliefs, all of which are predicated on the United States going down and out. I said I don't respond to each or many posts that present one fabricated particular after another concocted particular that tries to support this crackpot world view, and that the thread focuses on the CCP Boyz and the CCP China, not the United States. My focus is on the CCP while your focus and determination is on the USA. Youse guyz see every new and challenging event or development as fulfilling your demented passions against the United States. I conversely have noted the CCP Boyz can do damage but only on their way down and out and that the USA and the liberal Western democracies will be no worse for the wear of it. Is this guy from Europe? He'd best worry about Europe. As he bashes the US and its Fed, I wonder how much he knows about the Fed's bailout of Europe just 4 1/2 years ago? Let's watch this guy go into shock. Oh, no, he won't get it. ---------------------------------------------------- The Federal Reserve's Covert Bailout of Europe When is a loan between central banks not a loan? When it is a dollars-for-euros currency swap. Wall Street Journal By GERALD P. O'DRISCOLL JR. December 28, 2011 America's central bank, the Federal Reserve, is engaged in a bailout of European banks. Surprisingly, its operation is largely unnoticed here. The Fed is using what is termed a "temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangement" with the European Central Bank (ECB). There are similar arrangements with the central banks of Canada, England, Switzerland and Japan. Simply put, the Fed trades or "swaps" dollars for euros. The Fed is compensated by payment of an interest rate (currently 50 basis points, or one-half of 1%) above the overnight index swap rate. The ECB, which guarantees to return the dollars at an exchange rate fixed at the time the original swap is made, then lends the dollars to European banks of its choosing. Rest of Article in the Wall Street Journal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 you said this The CCP Boyz in Beijing know the one thing they can do for sure is to screw up the market economies led by the United States And I don't have the wrong guy. The fact that you think the US is a market economy is rich. So far, as China goes, so the US goes. China's stock market sold off, then the US market sold off. That is your shtick that you've been banging on throughout the thread, it's not mine. My statement was made as a part of a body that discusses and focuses on the CCP boyz in Beijing and their wholey owned subsidiary, the People's Republic of China. Your Austrian school of Mad Max economics predictably focuses on the United States and how the CCP Boyz in Beijing will succeed in overwhelming or overcoming it, by hook or by crook. The movement is in the opposite direction, as the United States continues to develop into a new century while the right wing emerging economies submerge, the CCP China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey along with a number of others. Your swaps don't amount to beans. Your determination to tie the USA to the CCP Boyz as if they were one and the same was stillborn. The Austrian school of economists are deficient in their analysis because they completely fail to factor in the differences between the USA and the CCP of culture, intellect, history, attitude, modernism among other vital determinants. There is no use or purpose to spend time focusing on the Mad Max theorists who are single minded against the United States, so I do not and I will not as the thread may go forward from here. The thread is about the CCP Boyz in Beijing because the place currently falling apart at the seams is the CCP China. I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. My posts have never said you are "pro-Communist party of China," nor have my posts said you believe in democracy in the United States. This is because you are not pro CCP nor are you pro-USA. My posts in response to your posts have referred to the Austrian school of economics and their Mad Max visions of a cataclysmic post-USA world that they desire, advocate and enthusiastically predict to be inevitable. A post-USA Mad Max world that is to the cheer of the Austrian school illiberal; anti-liberal, and, in which Putin is their hero, inspiration, Grand Wizard. So youse guyz have your purposes, goals, objectives, beliefs, all of which are predicated on the United States going down and out. I said I don't respond to each or many posts that present one fabricated particular after another concocted particular that tries to support this crackpot world view, and that the thread focuses on the CCP Boyz and the CCP China, not the United States. My focus is on the CCP while your focus and determination is on the USA. Youse guyz see every new and challenging event or development as fulfilling your demented passions against the United States. I conversely have noted the CCP Boyz can do damage but only on their way down and out and that the USA and the liberal Western democracies will be no worse for the wear of it. The whole point of my last post was to get politics out of this. And you just made your most politically slanted post yet. So you are saying I am an Austrian and then you are saying that Austrians are anti American. So if I am an Austrian then you must be a keynesian. Its no wonder you believe a debtor can stay solvent absent its creditor. You see, this is not guess work. But people like you seem to think that it is. No matter how much facts, arithmetic and logic is put in front of you, you get up in the morning , soak up some anti China/Europe/Russia propaganda and say " see, everything is fine " I can tell that you are not at all committed to any study of economics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 What part of this don't you understand?: "U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports (from the US to China) totaled $141 billion; Imports (from China) totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012. Apr 4, 2014." LINK The US has a GDP of $18 trillion. Just what part of the relatively tiny sum of a $298 billion trade deficit with China is such a big deal to you? What is it about China's manufacturing going to the US that makes you swoon? Manufacturing within the US accounts for 12% of US GDP and the average (US blue collar) worker in this segment makes about $70,000 per year. Link How much does the average Chinese manufacturing worker earn by comparison? China is the Beotch of the USTM, providing cheap labor to manufacture a tiny part of what enters the US economy, and US companies such as well known clothing and tech retailers actually make the big bucks on the US retail end. Where is your head in all of this? On what planet is a 298 billion dollar trade deficit with one country considered small ? Not on the planet where I reside. China is the US's biggest legitimate creditor. (lets just pretend that its not a ponzi for a minute) Now remove all of that credit and tell me with a straight face that the US won't be effected. You keep looking at raw trade data. Look at the current account. The more bonds China sells, the higher interest rates will go. Rising interest rates on external debt makes the current account deficit go up even if the trade deficit is closing. Do you think the Fed can take up China's slack ? So much for rate rises in September eh. That is called QE 4 You changed the subject again. What part of the minuscule trade deficit with China compared to the US manufacturing numbers and GDP makes you so awe stricken with China? Huh? You have no clue about holders of US debt. You are showing only part of external debt. Your numbers don't add up to the known $18 tril or so - see? Entities in the US including myself own most of the US debt. US trust funds, retirement funds, private holders, banks... Most of the US debt is internal. China holds 1.3 tril. The debt is 18 tril. That means that China holds only about 7.7% of the US debt. What is it about you that is so overwhelmed with China when the numbers don't add up to your lofty position? Net imports from China are a minuscule portion of the US GDP and China in its Forex is reported to hold about 7.7% of US debt but it's in a massive liquidity crunch. "Do you think the Fed can take up China's slack ? So much for rate rises in September eh. That is called QE 4." Are you dreaming? China can't push those bonds back on the Fed until their due date!!! It's the US Fed that has the option of taking them back and ruining China's foreign trade reserves in dollars!!!!! Your unsupportable positions are getting old. Really old. I didn't change the subject. Now you want to try and complicate it and bring % of GDP and try and white wash it with that. And it ain't washing. Just because you say that the China/US trade imbalance is minuscule does not make it true. From Mapi U.S. Bilateral Trade in Manufactures Table 4 presents U.S. bilateral trade in manufactures for the first half of 2015 for 10 major trading partners, who together accounted for 100% of the $301 billion global deficit. The overriding deficit picture centers on Asia. The $180 billion deficit with China is by far the largest, accounting for 60% of the global deficit, and the three other Asians listed—Japan, South Korea, and India—bring the share of the global deficit to 83%. U.S. manufactured imports from China were 5.5 times larger than U.S. exports to China, and imports from the other three Asians were 2.4 times larger than U.S. exports to them. Although global trade in manufactures is growing at a much slower pace in 2015, the U.S. and Chinese trade imbalances continue to surge at high, double-digit rates. The U.S. $48 billion deficit increase in the first half of the year equates to a loss of 300,000 trade-related American manufacturing jobs, and the deficit is on track for a loss of 500,000 or more jobs for the calendar year. This is the sixth consecutive year of soaring trade deficits and very large job losses, which from 2009 to 2015 will total 2.5 million, or 25% of the sector labor force. From 2009 to 2014, the U.S. trade deficit in manufactures doubled to $550 billion, while the Chinese surplus doubled to $1 trillion and the EU surplus doubled to $500 billion. And based on the first half of the year, these trade imbalances are headed toward even faster growth in 2015. This imbalance favorable to China is even more striking in the competitive performance among the industries. The Chinese lead is widest for the three IT industries, listed 5 through 7, where Chinese exports of $354 billion were 3.4 times larger than the $105 billion U.S. exports. And again the trade balances are even more disturbing, with a $138 billion Chinese surplus in contrast with a $102 billion U.S. deficit. The three machinery sectors, listed 2 through 4, show largely balanced exports—$90 billion for China and $85 billion for the United States—but a $37 billion Chinese surplus versus a $21 billion U.S. deficit. The largest U.S. export leads are for road vehicles, reflecting the highly trade-integrated North American automotive sector, although globally the United States is in large deficit, and other transport equipment, thanks largely to Boeing. The United States also has a large export lead for medical and pharmaceutical products, although again combined with a large deficit, and a small lead for professional and scientific instruments, where China, for once, is the deficit country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 (edited) I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. What part of this don't you understand?: "U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports (from the US to China) totaled $141 billion; Imports (from China) totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012. Apr 4, 2014." LINK The US has a GDP of $18 trillion. Just what part of the relatively tiny sum of a $298 billion trade deficit with China is such a big deal to you? What is it about China's manufacturing going to the US that makes you swoon? Manufacturing within the US accounts for 12% of US GDP and the average (US blue collar) worker in this segment makes about $70,000 per year. Link How much does the average Chinese manufacturing worker earn by comparison? China is the Beotch of the USTM, providing cheap labor to manufacture a tiny part of what enters the US economy, and US companies such as well known clothing and tech retailers actually make the big bucks on the US retail end. Where is your head in all of this? On what planet is a 298 billion dollar trade deficit with one country considered small ? Not on the planet where I reside. China is the US's biggest legitimate creditor. (lets just pretend that its not a ponzi for a minute) Now remove all of that credit and tell me with a straight face that the US won't be effected. You keep looking at raw trade data. Look at the current account. The more bonds China sells, the higher interest rates will go. Rising interest rates on external debt makes the current account deficit go up even if the trade deficit is closing. Do you think the Fed can take up China's slack ? So much for rate rises in September eh. That is called QE 4 I have pointed out the line of defense the United States can use at any time against anyone is that POTUS can by law freeze US Treasury Department instruments, T-Bills in particular. POTUS can freeze Treasuries to affect any purchaser, any time, under any circumstance, for any period of time, for any reason. I'd also pointed out moreover, the Fed possesses the T-Bills the CCP Boyz have purchased. The Boyz do not possess the Treasury bonds or other instruments they have purchased. The Boyz get a note of purchase instead, while the T-Bills and other instruments they have purchased are in US custody at the Fed's Foreign Account Holdings in its New York bank. POTUS is not required to freeze Treasuries, rather, he has the authority and can use it against anyone at any time for any reason for any duration. The CCP Boyz in Beijing know this and they know it well. Putin in March last year moved $130 billion of T-Bills to Russia because he thought it was going to strengthen and improve his economic and financial position.. Edited September 3, 2015 by Publicus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harsh Jones Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 (edited) I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. My posts have never said you are "pro-Communist party of China," nor have my posts said you believe in democracy in the United States. This is because you are not pro CCP nor are you pro-USA. My posts in response to your posts have referred to the Austrian school of economics and their Mad Max visions of a cataclysmic post-USA world that they desire, advocate and enthusiastically predict to be inevitable. A post-USA Mad Max world that is to the cheer of the Austrian school illiberal; anti-liberal, and, in which Putin is their hero, inspiration, Grand Wizard. So youse guyz have your purposes, goals, objectives, beliefs, all of which are predicated on the United States going down and out. I said I don't respond to each or many posts that present one fabricated particular after another concocted particular that tries to support this crackpot world view, and that the thread focuses on the CCP Boyz and the CCP China, not the United States. My focus is on the CCP while your focus and determination is on the USA. Youse guyz see every new and challenging event or development as fulfilling your demented passions against the United States. I conversely have noted the CCP Boyz can do damage but only on their way down and out and that the USA and the liberal Western democracies will be no worse for the wear of it. Is this guy from Europe? He'd best worry about Europe. As he bashes the US and its Fed, I wonder how much he knows about the Fed's bailout of Europe just 4 1/2 years ago? Let's watch this guy go into shock. Oh, no, he won't get it. ---------------------------------------------------- The Federal Reserve's Covert Bailout of Europe When is a loan between central banks not a loan? When it is a dollars-for-euros currency swap. Wall Street Journal By GERALD P. O'DRISCOLL JR. December 28, 2011 America's central bank, the Federal Reserve, is engaged in a bailout of European banks. Surprisingly, its operation is largely unnoticed here. The Fed is using what is termed a "temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangement" with the European Central Bank (ECB). There are similar arrangements with the central banks of Canada, England, Switzerland and Japan. Simply put, the Fed trades or "swaps" dollars for euros. The Fed is compensated by payment of an interest rate (currently 50 basis points, or one-half of 1%) above the overnight index swap rate. The ECB, which guarantees to return the dollars at an exchange rate fixed at the time the original swap is made, then lends the dollars to European banks of its choosing. Rest of Article in the Wall Street Journal. The Euro and the ECB were designed for the post dollar reserve world. Why was the Fed extending dollars to Europe ? Because Fed primary dealers in Europe are the Feds problem. Not the ECB's. And the ECB isn't stupid enough to print Euros to cover any shaky debt. This is Europe, the net creditor. From Wiki A primary dealer is a bank or securities broker-dealer that is permitted to trade directly with the Federal Reserve System ("the Fed").[1] Such firms are required to make bids or offers when the Fed conducts open market operations, provide information to the Fed's open market trading desk, and to participate actively in U.S. Treasury securities auctions.[2]They consult with both the U.S. Treasury and the Fed about funding the budget deficit and implementing monetary policy. BNP Paribas, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and RBS Greenwich Capital (a division of the Royal Bank of Scotland) distribute the debt to European buyers. The anti Europe propaganda in North America is fierce. Them dumb Europeans just havn't printed enough money they say. Thats why they are in a recession. Just look at these charts and tell me again how I should be worrying about Europe. Europe lives in the real world. The Eurozone periphery has eliminated its trade deficit. The Eurozone as a whole, is in trade surplus. Edited September 3, 2015 by Harsh Jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 (edited) <<snip>> Your Austrian school of Mad Max economics predictably focuses on the United States and how the CCP Boyz in Beijing will succeed in overwhelming or overcoming it, by hook or by crook. The movement is in the opposite direction, as the United States continues to develop into a new century while the right wing emerging economies submerge, the CCP China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey along with a number of others. Your swaps don't amount to beans. Your determination to tie the USA to the CCP Boyz as if they were one and the same was stillborn. The Austrian school of economists are deficient in their analysis because they completely fail to factor in the differences between the USA and the CCP of culture, intellect, history, attitude, modernism among other vital determinants. There is no use or purpose to spend time focusing on the Mad Max theorists who are single minded against the United States, so I do not and I will not as the thread may go forward from here. The thread is about the CCP Boyz in Beijing because the place currently falling apart at the seams is the CCP China. I am not pro Communist party of China. Nor do I support mobocracy politics in the US. But economically speaking, these two countries are joined at the hip. They have been playing financial chicken with each other for 20 years. The classic "if you owe the bank a million bucks its your problem but when you owe the bank 20 million, its the banks problem. " One isn't going down without the other. And that's how its playing out. My posts have never said you are "pro-Communist party of China," nor have my posts said you believe in democracy in the United States. This is because you are not pro CCP nor are you pro-USA. My posts in response to your posts have referred to the Austrian school of economics and their Mad Max visions of a cataclysmic post-USA world that they desire, advocate and enthusiastically predict to be inevitable. A post-USA Mad Max world that is to the cheer of the Austrian school illiberal; anti-liberal, and, in which Putin is their hero, inspiration, Grand Wizard. So youse guyz have your purposes, goals, objectives, beliefs, all of which are predicated on the United States going down and out. I said I don't respond to each or many posts that present one fabricated particular after another concocted particular that tries to support this crackpot world view, and that the thread focuses on the CCP Boyz and the CCP China, not the United States. My focus is on the CCP while your focus and determination is on the USA. Youse guyz see every new and challenging event or development as fulfilling your demented passions against the United States. I conversely have noted the CCP Boyz can do damage but only on their way down and out and that the USA and the liberal Western democracies will be no worse for the wear of it. The whole point of my last post was to get politics out of this. And you just made your most politically slanted post yet. So you are saying I am an Austrian and then you are saying that Austrians are anti American. So if I am an Austrian then you must be a keynesian. Its no wonder you believe a debtor can stay solvent absent its creditor. You see, this is not guess work. But people like you seem to think that it is. No matter how much facts, arithmetic and logic is put in front of you, you get up in the morning , soak up some anti China/Europe/Russia propaganda and say " see, everything is fine " I can tell that you are not at all committed to any study of economics. The illiberal and anti-liberal Austrian school of economics as it is known is about political economy which anyway requires a wizard to separate and divide in analyzing and discussing the matters and issues that are before us. Which is what you are trying to do. Your posts do not respond in any respectable way to my posts that point out your views coincide almost precisely with the Austrian school economists. Your comments about being Austrian, Kenesyian, propaganda, arithmetic, logic, economics, politics, are breezy, flippant, glib. You say nothing that would disprove you are of the Austrian school of Mad Max doomsday political economics that target the United States for destruction to build a new world order based in the gold standard and leaders such as Vladimir Putin. The assault by the Austrian school political economists we see presented here includes their campaigns against Keynes, the fiat currency, monetarism, debt, the Fed, democracy, constitutionalism --classic Western liberalism and the whole nine yards of modernity. The Austrian school political economists are classic19th century Cro-Magnon men who have absolutely no use of the United States of America. Which is why they have fallen silent during the ongoing collapse of Russia but are working overtime to try to turn the collapse of the CCP China into a disaster for the United States. The school of self-fulfilling prophecy or so they vainly hope and wish. NOT. Edited September 3, 2015 by Publicus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 "Your posts do not respond in any respectable way to my posts..." His posts don't track my posts but rather meander off into something else. I give a link and a Wall Street Journal explanation of how the Fed bailed out Europe and he comes back off topic with irrelevant nonsense. I'm finished with him because he can't track what either of us says and therefore is unteachable and a waste of time. Cheers. PS You still owe me a cup of coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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