AUD$ predicted to drop to 50's in the next few years

[ghworker2010]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-could-fall-to-us50c-economists-20150903-gjeku6.html

The aussie $ is on a slippery slope for the next year or 2 according to many economists. Is it time to send over a chunk of money now? I think so...

[NeverSure]

I dunno. It's usually not a bad idea to have your money in the currency you spend it in. That might not make you any forex money but it is a security blanket.

I recall years ago when Japan and Germany began to build factories in the US to build most Japanese and German cars for the (very large) US market. The US now manufactures 17 brands of cars. It obviously wasn't to get 3rd world manufacturing costs but was rather to follow the adage "manufacture in the currency you sell in" to insulate against currency swings. It's the sure thing for long range planning.

[simple1]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

[dsurin66]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

Thats a good point raised by simple1. Will a huge depreciation in the aud/usd impact the aud/thb rate?

[Suradit69]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

The "linkage" is simply mathematical. If one AUS$ got you 50 cents US and 21 Baht, then one US$ would have been worth Baht 42.

In 2001, the average exchange rate for baht/US$ was about 41.39

That was a few years after the 1997 Asian Monetary Crisis

The Asian financial crisis that was triggered in July 1997 was a shocker. Even two years after it ended, anxiety still loomed over global financial markets. What was at the time perceived to be a localized currency and financial crisis in Thailand, soon spread to other Southeast Asian countries--including Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. By the fall of 1997, the contagion extended its reach to South Korea, Hong Kong and China. A global financial meltdown had been ignited. In 1998, Russia and Brazil saw their economies enter a free-fall, and international stock markets, from New York to Tokyo, hit record lows as investors' confidence was shaken by the volatility and unpredictability in the world's financial markets

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html

To some extent, Asian currencies may tend to strengthen or weaken in sympathy. At that time they tended to be more influenced by the Japanese Yen, but these days it seems to be the Chinese economy and the yuan that influence things in this area, but still the exchange rates in Thailand and Australia can move against the US$ depending on conditions in any of those three countries that are quite independent of one another.

[Naam]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

very strong corelation!

[Naam]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

Thats a good point raised by simple1. Will a huge depreciation in the aud/usd impact the aud/thb rate?

look at the graph i posted and you have a highly likely answer.

[simple1]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

very strong corelation!

AUD-USD-AUD-THB.jpg

What I'm trying to understand is why, can you explain?

[Naam]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

very strong corelation!

AUD-USD-AUD-THB.jpg

What I'm trying to understand is why, can you explain?

for nearly four decades (1958-1997) THB was pegged to USD with only two adjustments (1973 and 1984) till the forced float in 1997 when there were no reserves left to keep the peg. inspite of the more or less free float during a couple of years after the Asian crisis THB was until today never really freely convertible. heavy restrictions still exist which, in combination with Thai central bank interventions, prevent too fast and too strong fluctuations away from the "desired" exchange rate vs. US-Dollars.

as simple as that... but don't ask me who or what forces decide that desired rate or their reasons.

[simple1]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

very strong corelation!

AUD-USD-AUD-THB.jpg

What I'm trying to understand is why, can you explain?

for nearly four decades (1958-1997) THB was pegged to USD with only two adjustments (1973 and 1984) till the forced float in 1997 when there were no reserves left to keep the peg. inspite of the more or less free float during a couple of years after the Asian crisis THB was until today never really freely convertible. heavy restrictions still exist which, in combination with Thai central bank interventions, prevent too fast and too strong fluctuations away from the "desired" exchange rate vs. US-Dollars.

as simple as that... but don't ask me who or what forces decide that desired rate or their reasons.

Thanks...

[IMA_FARANG]

The real problem is that Australia is heavily dependent on export of commodities to Asia and particularly China.

With the Chinese economy slowing down it's growth rate and the resultant drop of imports from outside China from other Asian countries, such as Australia, the Australian economy and it's currency is feeling the effects of that slowdown in export income.

When China sneezes, Asia and Australia gets a cold.

[johnh869]

I'm not knowledgeable on Forex movement, but back in 2001 when AUD dropped below .50 cents to US$, the AUD to Baht rate was approx 21 baht. Does anyone have knowledge of the linkage, if any, between AUD to US$ and AUD to Baht exchange rates?

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/

USD to AUD.pdf

Divide one by the AUD amount to get the US value....USD to AUD.pdf

Edited September 6, 2015 by johnh869