Thai economy growth at 3.1 percent this year

[webfact]

Economic growth at 3.1% this year



BANGKOK: -- The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce has forecasted that the Thai economy will grow at 3.1 percent this year.

The positive growth represented only 0.1 percent below its forecast in April, thank to the government’s new economic stimulus measure announced early this week.

Thanawat Phonwichai, Director of UTCC’s Economic and Business Forecasting Center attributed the new growth projection to the government’s economic stimulus packages assistance packages announced early in the week.

The stimulus packages for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the new village fund worth altogether 130 billion baht will speed up economic recovery in the fourth quarter of this year and boost growth in 2016, Thanawat said.

He also said other positive factors that would contribute to the economic growth this year are political stability and expanding tourism.

He said if cash was injected into the system quickly, the economy should grow 3.1 percent this year, otherwise it should grow between 2.8 and 3 percent.

UTCC forecasted in April that the Thai economy would grow 3.2 percent this year.

But despite this downward adjustment, the September’s forecast is seen as positive.

Economists had viewed that the Thai economy would grow between 2.5-2.9 percent this year prior to the announcement of the new stimulus packages.

But Thanawat said negative factors that are affecting the economy are drought, low farm product prices, uncertainty in the global economic recovery and economic slowdown in China.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/economic-growth-at-3-1-this-year


-- Thai PBS 2015-09-11

[i claudius]

And In Other news from fairyland

[phoenixdoglover]

If the money is spent.

Under this government, that is a big "if".

To its credit, the article does mention the underlying factors that are in play, although they forgot to mention a slowdown in tourists. It's hard to see how 2016 will be especially bright for Thailand.

[deckape]

Economic growth at 3.1% this year

The guy on the right who read this falsehood, has his fingers crossed under the table.

[Jon Wetherall]

"But despite this downward adjustment, the September’s forecast is seen as positive."

Right. Gottit. It'll go down again then...

[andytime]

Figures arrived at using a rejected Chinese calculator.

[chainarong]

Not a bad set of figures , in this present climate quite a few country's would like this number, however lets see how the finance department figures match up , that's the main indicator, not some financial institution talking up the economy.

[elgordo38]

Not a bad set of figures , in this present climate quite a few country's would like this number, however lets see how the finance department figures match up , that's the main indicator, not some financial institution talking up the economy.

They can pump the numbers up to whatever level they want. They keep saying there is no inflation BS. All around me prices are rising and packaging is getting smaller. They have picked up all these cute tricks from the Western nations who have been fudging figures for years.

[billphillips]

And next ..... The hub of economic growth !

Why do these people make so many statements similar to this. Are they incapable of facing the truth in its harsh reality. Perhaps in the past, the poor Thai people that constitute the majority of the population, would believe such stuff. Today's average Thai is far more worldly wise and will happily question ridiculous statements issued by authority. Soon they won't even be scared of ghosts anymore.

[sawadee1947]

dream on

[waldroj]

According to my stockbroker (CIMB Securities) "The NRC’s rejection of the charter draft will delay the general election from Sep 16 to around Jul 17, which is now the best-case scenario. If the new charter is voted down in the referendum, the election is likely to be delayed by yet another year, in our opinion. Although the market has fallen by 8% YTD, we do not see any major catalysts that can turn around the economy and the market in the near future...".

As painful as it is, I know who I would rather believe!

[Acharn]

Not a bad set of figures , in this present climate quite a few country's would like this number, however lets see how the finance department figures match up , that's the main indicator, not some financial institution talking up the economy.

Heck, the U.S. would love this number, but it's kind of low for an "emerging market" like Thailand. I wish this article had given growth statistics for the earlier quarters. That would help evaluate how optimistic this projection is (I think it's wildly over-optimistic). The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce is financed by Thai businesses, and I suppose many of them feel it's important to keep people feeling "confident."

[lostoday]

Real G.D.P. growth slowed to 2.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2015, down from 3.0 percent in the first quarter — and that includes the effects of a surge in tourism; discounting that, G.D.P. actually shrank. (The recent bombing of the Erawan Shrine in Bangkok will dampen foreign visits for a time.) Imports in capital goods have been falling for years, despite the state’s ever more generous incentives for foreign investors.

Thais are pouring idle cash into luxury condominiums and high-end shopping malls. Some $1.5 billion have been earmarked for the construction near Bangkok’s historic center of IconSiam, a shopping mall with retail space the size of 75 soccer fields. Touted as a symbol of “eternal prosperity,” this grand palace of commerce is also a monument to the junta’s misguided economic vision: the promise of consumption with too few consumers who have the income to fulfill it.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/855145-how-to-save-the-thai-economy-opinion/

[CapeThai]

As quoted".... He said if cash was injected into the system quickly, the economy should grow 3.1 percent this year, otherwise it should grow between 2.8 and 3 percent. "

Once again a load of bull shit... Tourism will NEVER EVER be the same AND WILL continue to fall due to Thai Police, Lady Boys, Thai Business Owners, Jet Ski Scams ( part of the Thai police ) scamming, robbing, raping, distorting tourist left and right as they enter the country.....

These are the facts and cause for the Thai tourism CRASH....

PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong.......

IT IS WHAT IT IS !!!

Edited September 11, 2015 by CapeThai

[Srikcir]

"Economists had viewed that the Thai economy would grow between 2.5-2.9 percent this year prior to the announcement of the new stimulus packages."

No, government spending was already factored:

"Should the government succeed in boosting the spending, this year’s growth could be achieved at 2.5 to 3 per cent." - ThaiVisa 04-18-2015

Should exports continue to contract and agricultural prices continue to drop, domestic consumption will have minimal impact on GDP growth through year-end. Frankly, a growth of 2.5% for 2015 is looking optimistic.

[Praematura]

Article on NY times about Thailand growth analysis. Google NY Times Thai economy for article two days ago.

We all know rich Thais want to buy their dollars on the cheap and only when that's done will they will let the baht move and maybe boost exports creating growth unrelated to relying on Chinese tourists.

[lostoday]

Article on NY times about Thailand growth analysis. Google NY Times Thai economy for article two days ago.

We all know rich Thais want to buy their dollars on the cheap and only when that's done will they will let the baht move and maybe boost exports creating growth unrelated to relying on Chinese tourists.

I thinkthis is the article you are talking about, "The Bangkok-based establishment also fears the political implications of a devaluation. When the baht collapsed in 1997, many fortunes were wiped out. Then the whole economy collapsed, discrediting the traditional elites’ stewardship. That in turn led to the adoption of a liberal constitution that restrained their political power and paved the way for the rise of Mr. Thaksin, whose progressive policies weakened their grip even more."