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I think Bangkok condo market is crashing


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I agree, this kind of lazy post is akin to tabloid journalism, with anecdotal comments from punters offering their novice advice to match.

The only meaningful statistics come from (usually Western or Western-trained) specialists who deal with the property market or analyse it for the stock exchange. They will tell you that there is currently somewhat of a cyclical downturn, likely to continue for some time, depending on both domestic and international, micro- and macro-factors.

Anyone who's been around the block a few times has seen far worse, so to call it a 'crash' is absurd.

Talk to the ethnic Indians who own a good proportion of downtown Bangkok land and property. Ask them if they are worried in the long term.

I don't care is some rich people are worried long term. These people have multiple sources of income. I am talking about peasant investors who expect to flip. Prakard is full of them. I was one of them. It is extremely easy. Book a room for 3000, sign a contract for another 30,000 and make monthly payments until the condo is built. I actually wanted to buy a unit, but after reading and seeing some pictures on Pantip from unhappy tenants, I sold my contract for 30,000 profit.

If Thailand was like China, I am sure Thais would also invest in stock market. Look how many peasants lost money overnight there. Thai investors don't have an easy access to markets, so they are left with real estate.

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I agree, this kind of lazy post is akin to tabloid journalism, with anecdotal comments from punters offering their novice advice to match.

The only meaningful statistics come from (usually Western or Western-trained) specialists who deal with the property market or analyse it for the stock exchange. They will tell you that there is currently somewhat of a cyclical downturn, likely to continue for some time, depending on both domestic and international, micro- and macro-factors.

Anyone who's been around the block a few times has seen far worse, so to call it a 'crash' is absurd.

Talk to the ethnic Indians who own a good proportion of downtown Bangkok land and property. Ask them if they are worried in the long term.

I don't care is some rich people are worried long term. These people have multiple sources of income. I am talking about peasant investors who expect to flip. Prakard is full of them. I was one of them. It is extremely easy. Book a room for 3000, sign a contract for another 30,000 and make monthly payments until the condo is built. I actually wanted to buy a unit, but after reading and seeing some pictures on Pantip from unhappy tenants, I sold my contract for 30,000 profit.

If Thailand was like China, I am sure Thais would also invest in stock market. Look how many peasants lost money overnight there. Thai investors don't have an easy access to markets, so they are left with real estate.

Peasant investors are like maturing pre teens. They would learn about the danger of fire, after getting burnt.

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think this is wrong. This is exactly why condo market will crash in my opinion. The lack of taxes and maintenance make even the premium condos look like a dump in 10 years. I am staying at Chatrium. The place was built in 2007. Although it looks very nice on surface and was built by same people who built Emporium, there are numerous water leakages and moulds. Not to mention paint peeling off and a total disregard for any serious maintenance whatsoever. In contrast my Canadian condo building that was built in 2000 still looks like new despite harsh winters.

I believe this is the reason Thai people only like to buy new.

Sometimes the original developer awards themselves an ironclad and long life management and maintenance contract and very little is actually spent on the building most goes into continuing cashflow / profit.

Look into the building management's connections.

Edited by ironbark
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What is the meaning of 'Crashing'?

The only time the Thai property market did crashed was during the Tom Yum Kung crisis.

There was a small dip and a couple of years of price stagnation in 2007-8 due to the Sub-prime crisis.

I would expect something similar this year and next, as the world faces the deflation spillover from China.

The currency crashed fast in the 1997 Tom Yum Gung crises, but real-estate took a long slow decline and only bottomed out late 2001 to mid 2002.

Even with stagnating prices, 2-4% inflation is slowly eroding condo prices in Bangkok.

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The Thai condo market won't crash as most condos are not bought with borrowed money.

In the west, where we have crashes, they happen because people HAVE to sell to repay debt. In Thailand most condos/property is bought without loans so there's little urgency to sell. If the market falls then people sit it out till things recover.

Sure, there's ups and downs but I doubt you'll see the crash you're expecting.

Furthermore, in the West we generally have property taxes, which means that it can be expensive to just let condos go unused.

Ive looked at unused condos in Thailand, and it was very clear that the owner was in no hurry to sell, in fact, some werent even sure they wanted to sell, because maybe some future family member wanted to use it

I think this is wrong. This is exactly why condo market will crash in my opinion. The lack of taxes and maintenance make even the premium condos look like a dump in 10 years. I am staying at Chatrium. The place was built in 2007. Although it looks very nice on surface and was built by same people who built Emporium, there are numerous water leakages and moulds. Not to mention paint peeling off and a total disregard for any serious maintenance whatsoever. In contrast my Canadian condo building that was built in 2000 still looks like new despite harsh winters.

I believe this is the reason Thai people only like to buy new.

Millennium residence has excellent maintenance and is I better shape than similarly aged buildings in Canada I know of.

The committee kicked ass and removed the previous property manager who also acted as JPM and forced performance on the new management company. That said there is tons of room for improvement but Milennium Residence is currently probably the best run luxury condo in Thailand.

Developers like to be in control during the warranty period so as to minimize claims coming through the management office. The best way is to separate the JPM function from the BM office and lean on the building management to do a proper job.

Edited by Mr Wonderful
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Some "experts" seem to agree with the OP.

http://www.dotproperty.co.th/property-news/en/house-prices-fall-in-thailand/

According to a report by GlobalPropertyGuide house prices in Thailand fell by 1.12% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of the year.

The website takes its source information for the whole of Thailands property and real estate markets from the Bangkok of Thailands Index for single detached housing which amounts to just a small fraction of the entire property sector. Therefore the question must be, are property prices in Thailand really falling in the market as a whole?

.....So are property and real estate prices in Thailand starting to fall across the sector? Its fair to say that a small number of Bangkok developers have started to promote discounted new units with saving of up to as much as 15 percent on unit prices, and in Pattaya there have seen some fire sales with units selling for as much as 40 percent off their original listed prices....

Edited by ExpatOilWorker
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What is the meaning of 'Crashing'?

The only time the Thai property market did crashed was during the Tom Yum Kung crisis.

There was a small dip and a couple of years of price stagnation in 2007-8 due to the Sub-prime crisis.

I would expect something similar this year and next, as the world faces the deflation spillover from China.

The currency crashed fast in the 1997 Tom Yum Gung crises, but real-estate took a long slow decline and only bottomed out late 2001 to mid 2002.

Even with stagnating prices, 2-4% inflation is slowly eroding condo prices in Bangkok.

you make a very good point. Even if you have a shock to the economy, it's unlikely to see a fast sell off of property prices. It would be more likely as you outlined after the Asian crisis that it will be a prolongued multi year price decline.

And I agree with the second part if your scenario if price stagnation in the condo market. Personally I don't like the condo market here so much as they tend to loose value when they age as people like buying new condos here, so even if the value of the land of the condo goes up, the price of the condo may not go up as much because it is ageing. This is the main reason why I've invested into landed property here as I strongly believe land prices will continue to go up especially in good locations.

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@ Op: let me know if it is really crashing, I will certainly consider buying a unit. But right now, I don't see a crash yet. A crash is a price correction of about 30-40% from highs.

Why would you even then?

Other posters have already touched on all the other problems - neighbouring owners who never pay the 'shared' costs or Body Corp fees .

Management teams who do nothing every day. Owners who do absolutely no maintenance to their properties.

And so far unmentioned....

Body Corp Managers who STEAL the sinking fund ! Land owners of the apartment site trying to regain their land by fair means or foul before the lease renewal date. Neighbours who transgress the rules by repairing cars in the car park , keeping pets , enclosing balconies , having 8 relatives live with them , having whiskey and cards parties every night , or stringing up laundry in the common areas and stair wells.

And owners who rent to holiday makers , who treat the complex as a resort and have kids screaming around the pool all day , while their Dads sit by it and drink Vodka half the night ... while "Security" looks on grinning.

Very nice apartments nearby me sold for 7 million 9 years ago.

They are still nice ( tho once again the outside needs a pressure clean and paint ) but sell for 2 to 3 million.

This is because the place is in constant turmoil - the landowner ( bored Thai Hi So ) wants to 'own' the body corp and squeeze a few more million a year out of her development - she has successfully ignored numerous court orders , and now "sold" management rights ( over the self managed Board of Owners ) to someone determined to run the complex into the ground and buy up the apartments of those now fleeing. He has stopped all access by maintenance men employed by the citizens group , contrary to court orders stating he must give them access .

The pools are green , the internet service sketchy , the gardens overgrowing , security lax .

Its a great lesson in why not to buy in Thailand !

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The condo market won't crash until the economy significantly improved and interest rates go up. In the west this wouldn't be the case, but here most people are employed even in low economic times, and can only pay so much for their housing. When interest rates go up, people with a mortgage will have to pay more, which many cant afford. Rental rates can't really increase either as many people work for minimum wage and can't afford to pay more rent. Thus the return for landlords on their property would be far less than investing in stocks, bonds or just have it sitting in a bank account. Now property owners are happy to nett 4% on their property as it beats bonds or interest. But when interest rates go up, 4% suddenly looks pretty abysmal, hence they will sell.

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These threads are always tipped in the renters advantage but not for the reasons mentioned or imagined. The sad truth is that unlike in the west, farang cant borrow money for condos in Thailand so most of the people posting on this thread simply dont have 7 million baht, I honestly doubt that 90% would even have 100k. Fact is just like in the west most are busted arse trying to live exist on a meager pension by stretching it in Asia so the first thing they do is find some dive in the back sois of Bangkok/Pattaya for the cheap 5000bht rent and you know who they are because they keep advertising how cheap the rent is LOL

However not one will admit they are busted arse so they come here with little gems like "In Thailand dont buy what you cant afford blah blah" and " Im making 30% a year in offshore investments" but I still like living in squalor because its a lifestyle choice

Those that are broke, just suck it up but please dont come here spurting anecdotal one liners just so you can feel better about yourself.

Edited by mcfish
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Would you say, generally, that farangs can't buy condos from Thais anyway? Since the Thai/farang ratio must be maintained.

That depends entirely on how popular the building is with farangs. In my Jomtien building the ratio could probably get up to 80/20, if that were possible, as the building is very popular with farangs. But in other nearby buildings there are more Thai owners than farangs and anyone can buy anything from anyone.

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It took me some time to understand why the crash is coming to Thailand.

Its not like west where condos/housing have 70-80% loans. The crash in west will be much worse.

In populair tourist/foreign areas in Thailand: when a new project is announced majority of condos are bought by speculators.

They only have to pay 10% booking fee. During building of the project they resale the project with a profit. Since all condos are "booked" a customer is forced to pay the inflated price.

With the devaluation of Euros/Russian currency there is a problem.

Now projects are completed and suddenly the projects are 50-300% more expensive. Speculators are desperate to sell before they have to pay the builders. Thats why for the first time condos are under listed price.

Its a game of chicken.

For example popular project like Waterfront in Pattaya. Its still pre-sold to a bunch of Russians. Almost all resales are from Russians, usually about 50% above the list price. They can still have the inflated price until the project is nearing completion and they have to pay for the condo.

The problem in Thailand is therefore minimal compared to west and can be addressed by the Thai government. This whole problem is because of speculation and how people "abuse" the system and book all condos and resale them. For example: If you buy a new build condo: you can't sell it for a year.

In west the prices are insane thanks to low interest and how people think its normal to lend 80% to house/condo. People just don't understand: Its not about if you can pay the interest. Its about: can you pay the loan? If a bank calls you and says: We can't grant you a loan for the house: we need you to repay the loan. Almost no people can do that and we have a crash like 2008. (and that is in a nutshell what happened in 2008. Today banks in west are allowed to lend out something that don't exist. If a bank lends out 100K dollars they only need to have 10K in the bank. 90K air lent out and generate interest. The thing that happened in 2008: Banks have to by law have a minimum capitalisation. When they don't have that = they can't lend out more money = they call customers: We can't lend you money anymore. Repay the loan. And people can't repay = crash.

And this happens in west every 8-10 years since the banks were allowed to lend out air and get interest. (approx 1974, 1981,1991, 2001, 2008)

This is why banking in west is fanatical about no real money but instead using credit card. Each dollar a bank have = they can lend out 9 that does not exist.

When you grasp this crazy system you suddenly undertand everything. It amazes me how few in USA still understand what happened in 2008. But then again: media is owned by the same people that own the banks. Thats why we don't hear about Iceland. The only country that didn't give their banks billions and billions in bailout 2008 and instead locked them in jail. Iceland had hell for 3-5 year because they turned their backs on the bank-masters. But today they are prosperous. But.. You will never read in mainstream owned press that is controlled.

Thailand still have a majority of real money. Not air money. (in west: 97% of total currency don't exist today. Its air generating interest). In Thailand they don't lend out 80% to housing driving prices up insanely.

The air money is unique for western countries/ countries with media owned by a specific group. That group almost don't exist in Thailand = more free media in Thailand than "democratic" west.

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The Thai condo market won't crash as most condos are not bought with borrowed money.

In the west, where we have crashes, they happen because people HAVE to sell to repay debt. In Thailand most condos/property is bought without loans so there's little urgency to sell. If the market falls then people sit it out till things recover.

Sure, there's ups and downs but I doubt you'll see the crash you're expecting.

Furthermore, in the West we generally have property taxes, which means that it can be expensive to just let condos go unused.

Ive looked at unused condos in Thailand, and it was very clear that the owner was in no hurry to sell, in fact, some werent even sure they wanted to sell, because maybe some future family member wanted to use it

I agree I have seen units remodeled in my older building only to be left sitting empty. People stay there from time to time but no one permanent so far.

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I agree, this kind of lazy post is akin to tabloid journalism, with anecdotal comments from punters offering their novice advice to match.

The only meaningful statistics come from (usually Western or Western-trained) specialists who deal with the property market or analyse it for the stock exchange. They will tell you that there is currently somewhat of a cyclical downturn, likely to continue for some time, depending on both domestic and international, micro- and macro-factors.

Anyone who's been around the block a few times has seen far worse, so to call it a 'crash' is absurd.

Talk to the ethnic Indians who own a good proportion of downtown Bangkok land and property. Ask them if they are worried in the long term.

Points very well made.

To wit, the very small triangle building at Nana just next to Q House sold for about 36 MB.

It is a triangle, built in '83 or something. The building is of course worth nothing.

Purchased by a Sikh. A very wealthy one.

Sikh have bought and owned land in Bangkok successfully for generations. The tailor shops in many cases are just holding companies. Of course some are money makers. But most are just a place to sit (or your cousin to sit) while you sit on appreciating value.

One or 2 Sikh families are extreme examples .... in fact one in particular owns the land (and in some cases the hotel) under the biggest brand name hotels in the city. The land under Sheraton grande sukumvit, AND the Westin, AND the Intercontinental, among others. And they own that Sheraton franchise building, although they have a mgt company do the work.

Nice few couple acres of dirt to own for 30 years. Make your family wealthy for generations.

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All i know after lliving here for years is that you NEVER buy or rent property advertised in the Bangkok Post. Rents up to 120,000 month , condos offered at (bargain ) prices for 15 million baht !!

Thais dont pay these prices. If i ever by property here (unlikely) i would insist on paying Thai price. Thai price is a fraction of what farangs pay. LOL

I rent a 4 storey building with a/c and two western bathrooms for 7,500 baht/m near the river in central BKK. Always rent dont buy in LOS.

If you've lived here several years and you have some good Thai friends they will show you how to buy smart here. Up to you.

Remember that thousands of nor sor 3 and 4 title deeds have been issued under the table by corrupt lands officials.

Who knows what will happen here over the next few years when CP takes over the reigns.

I've joined this thread rather late but your comment "I rent a 4 storey building with a/c and two western bathrooms for 7,500 baht/m near the river in central BKK"

amazed me! I'm NOT doubting your word Jalansanitwong but however did you find something that big at that price?? I'm just curious to know is all!

Please do tell.....PM me if you don't want to hijack the thread!

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The Thai condo market won't crash as most condos are not bought with borrowed money.

In the west, where we have crashes, they happen because people HAVE to sell to repay debt. In Thailand most condos/property is bought without loans so there's little urgency to sell. If the market falls then people sit it out till things recover.

Sure, there's ups and downs but I doubt you'll see the crash you're expecting.

Furthermore, in the West we generally have property taxes, which means that it can be expensive to just let condos go unused.

Ive looked at unused condos in Thailand, and it was very clear that the owner was in no hurry to sell, in fact, some werent even sure they wanted to sell, because maybe some future family member wanted to use it

I think this is wrong. This is exactly why condo market will crash in my opinion. The lack of taxes and maintenance make even the premium condos look like a dump in 10 years. I am staying at Chatrium. The place was built in 2007. Although it looks very nice on surface and was built by same people who built Emporium, there are numerous water leakages and moulds. Not to mention paint peeling off and a total disregard for any serious maintenance whatsoever. In contrast my Canadian condo building that was built in 2000 still looks like new despite harsh winters.

I believe this is the reason Thai people only like to buy new.

Millennium residence has excellent maintenance and is I better shape than similarly aged buildings in Canada I know of.

The committee kicked ass and removed the previous property manager who also acted as JPM and forced performance on the new management company. That said there is tons of room for improvement but Milennium Residence is currently probably the best run luxury condo in Thailand.

Developers like to be in control during the warranty period so as to minimize claims coming through the management office. The best way is to separate the JPM function from the BM office and lean on the building management to do a proper job.

Millennium Residence is still a new development. I believe it was completed in 2010. Let's see how it measures up in 2020-2025. That being said it looks like a solid construction and I am jealous of people living there :)

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I looked at pretty much every newer high-end condo in central BKK that's within a 3-5 minute walk of a BTS/MRT station (Millennium did not make the cut, much too far from BTS and malls for me).

Nearly all, including those less than five years old, were in shockingly poor condition. When guessing their age, I would have guessed at least double or triple the actual age. Depressing lobbies and lifts, dim corridors, etc.

I did find a few that were in very good condition. The common denominator? They were all attached to hotels...in other words, the "Residence" tower of hotels, although not necessarily serviced apartments. In the end I chose one of these apartments to rent and rejected the idea of buying (all of these will be 30-yr leasehold with uncertain renewal). So, my conclusion is that proper care and maintenance can only be expected if associated with a hotel group. The place I am in is about five years old, but is very professionally managed and looks new inside and out...any maintenance issue is solved immediately.

Of course, I pay a rent that would cause many here to call me a clueless farang, but if you want quality here located immediately adjacent to BTS you still have to pay up for it.

Maybe Millenium Residence is an exception to the poor maintenance rule, I can't comment on that, but I can't imagine buying a condo here given the likely condition in 10+ years.

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I looked at pretty much every newer high-end condo in central BKK that's within a 3-5 minute walk of a BTS/MRT station

Nearly all, including those less than five years old, were in shockingly poor condition. When guessing their age, I would have guessed at least double or triple the actual age. Depressing lobbies and lifts, dim corridors, etc.

Dim corridors wouldn’t seem to be caused by bad upkeep.

I’m also unclear about what you put in depressing lobbies and lifts. I have certainly seen my fair share of depressing buildings in Thailand, but it’s a combination of abandonment, disrepair, and the materials/design, e.g. very little sunlight, and everything done in concrete and terrazzo.

I wouldn’t think that nearly all newer high-end condos in central BKK were done in this style.

So can you elaborate a bit? I.e. were these buildings just done in a depressing style from the beginning, or was it lack of maintenance that had made the buildings look as they did?

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No....not really....everything relative to land and houses and properties including condos were basically over priced to begin with....so....more realistic prices are reflected when they reduce the price from the previously over priced value.

Besides...in most property developments the construction standards and the quality you are supposedly paying for is just not there.

Relative to the prices they charge for the finished product, if you could inspect the construction work from beginning to end, you would be very hesitant to purchase anything at all.......as all too often the construction work is very shoddy and all too often just plain horrible.....but they cover it well enough and make it look good or good enough....as long as you are not too picky or do not look too closely.

Recently I was watching a 2 level shop house project being assembled by way of pre cast concrete components that more or less fit together somewhat like a Lego Block assembly made from thick pre-cast concrete slabs and sections.

You can see there is a degree of quality and integrity built into the units while there is overall strength making for better value as compared to other projects built using thin walled cast concrete bricks and on sight cast concrete support columns with minimum amount of rebar installed and several other commonly practiced construction methods done on the cheap.

Anyhow....it is all over priced and far too much speculation and far too much of what has been constructed lacks integrity......Relative to the prices people are paying.

Cheers

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I don't understand the mindset of some people. There's a vacant shop in my condo in lobby area. It's been vacant for 2 years. I was interested in seeing how much rent is because my gf wants her own business.

I talked to the manager and she said that owner wants like 60,000baht rent and it's very expensive.

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I don't understand the mindset of some people. There's a vacant shop in my condo in lobby area. It's been vacant for 2 years. I was interested in seeing how much rent is because my gf wants her own business.

I talked to the manager and she said that owner wants like 60,000baht rent and that nobody wants it.

So, instead of lowering the price like anyone with a brain would do, this numpty has been missing out on 2 years of income because he won't lower his price. How do these people survive?

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Where do farangs buy cars? ......car yards? Farangs dont know because they dont have any knowledgeable Thai friends. Just a Thai wife.

I bought my car new from a dealer. I will probably keep it for a very long time as it gets very little wear (I have no extended Thai family eating and sleeping on the back seats, in fact only the driver's seat has had any use in the three years I have owned the vehicle, and I dont drive off-road).

Why dont I buy used cars here? Because I dont really trust anyone here to maintain their car properly, or to drive it properly for that matter.

so you are completely alone in life, congratulations.

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I don't understand the mindset of some people. There's a vacant shop in my condo in lobby area. It's been vacant for 2 years. I was interested in seeing how much rent is because my gf wants her own business.

I talked to the manager and she said that owner wants like 60,000baht rent and that nobody wants it.

So, instead of lowering the price like anyone with a brain would do, this numpty has been missing out on 2 years of income because he won't lower his price. How do these people survive?

often they simply dont need the money. its not a matter of survival.

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I agree, this kind of lazy post is akin to tabloid journalism, with anecdotal comments from punters offering their novice advice to match.

The only meaningful statistics come from (usually Western or Western-trained) specialists who deal with the property market or analyse it for the stock exchange. They will tell you that there is currently somewhat of a cyclical downturn, likely to continue for some time, depending on both domestic and international, micro- and macro-factors.

Anyone who's been around the block a few times has seen far worse, so to call it a 'crash' is absurd.

Talk to the ethnic Indians who own a good proportion of downtown Bangkok land and property. Ask them if they are worried in the long term.

Good points.....but you forgot to mention how it is the supposed experts and specialists who are commonly proven wrong when market upsets or disasters occur.

Cheers

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I looked at pretty much every newer high-end condo in central BKK that's within a 3-5 minute walk of a BTS/MRT station (Millennium did not make the cut, much too far from BTS and malls for me).

Nearly all, including those less than five years old, were in shockingly poor condition. When guessing their age, I would have guessed at least double or triple the actual age. Depressing lobbies and lifts, dim corridors, etc.

I did find a few that were in very good condition. The common denominator? They were all attached to hotels...in other words, the "Residence" tower of hotels, although not necessarily serviced apartments. In the end I chose one of these apartments to rent and rejected the idea of buying (all of these will be 30-yr leasehold with uncertain renewal). So, my conclusion is that proper care and maintenance can only be expected if associated with a hotel group. The place I am in is about five years old, but is very professionally managed and looks new inside and out...any maintenance issue is solved immediately.

Of course, I pay a rent that would cause many here to call me a clueless farang, but if you want quality here located immediately adjacent to BTS you still have to pay up for it.

Maybe Millenium Residence is an exception to the poor maintenance rule, I can't comment on that, but I can't imagine buying a condo here given the likely condition in 10+ years.

IMO maintenance is the number 1 problem with being a long-term owner in Thailand. I also looked at many buildings in Bangkok ,with similar criteria to eppic, (also never really liked Millenium for the same reasons). I think there are a few that are well maintained and we rented in one for a few years before eventually buying in one of the others on our list. As eppic points out above, being connected to a hotel, is a big factor in maintaining the quality others include having a high proportion of owner occupiers (rather than renters). Also its important that the mgmt committee is made up of people who live in the building , better (IMO) if its not dominated by Thais and includes people who are passionate about the building. Obviously a good mgmt company is also key.

In the building we now live in the mgmt committee has worked hard in convincing the owners of the long term benefits of keeping up the quality and this has worked to an extent; even so there were some grumbles at the last agm when the mgmt introduced a special charge for (a much needed) lobby re-fresh. This was somewhat depressing as some of those complaining (they were all Thai btw) have owned in the building from the start and will have seen the value of their units up over 200%.

Edited by wordchild
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