Without Tourism, Thailand is Flirting with Recession

[AyG]

There's an interesting article in today's Financial Times, basically highlighting what poor condition the Thai economy is, and how it is being buoyed up by tourism. A few snippets:

"The absence of a short-term nosedive for tourism [following the Erawan bombing] saves the underachieving Thai economy from even worse performance. GDP expanded just 2.8 per cent year-on-year in the first half, far behind the 4 to 5 per cent growth posted by Thailands Asean peers."

"the Thai economy would have grown just 0.8 per cent in the first half without the contribution of tourism (see chart). Similarly, the economy would have expanded only 1.3 per cent in 2013 and 1.6 per cent in 2014."

"the Thai economy fell into recession in the first half of 2015, and grew just 0.8% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014"

"Almost all the recent boom in tourism has come from booming demand from China for Thailand holidays."

Depressing stuff.

The original article is at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/cd7c733c-6b7c-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html but it's firewalled. However, if you Google for the article title (same as this topic title). However, if you use the following Google search you should be able to click on the relevant link and read the article for free: http://tinyurl.com/qf5pmgs

Edited October 6, 2015 by AyG

[NOC]

I for one, will not be putting any serious money into this economy. Hit them where they live!

[Sam Jones]

Clear out all " Fixed Accounts " and move to Vietnam ... Maybe they dont spread their legs so easy but everything else is better ...

[ExpatOilWorker]

IMF just downgraded Thailand GDP figures for 2015 and forecast 2016 could be even worse. More alarming is that Thailand is falling behind its peers Malaysia, Indonesia and even Vietnam is outgrowing Thailand.

[Seligne2]

1. This government is killing investment in Thailand. The notion of a single gateway puts paid to any foreign company putting significant facilities in the country.

2. Climate change, i.e., not having the rainfall to support two rice crops will kill Thailand's rice exports

3. The culture of corruption and over-exploitation of natural resources is killing the Thai fishing industry.

4. Technological change, e.g., the rise of solid-state disk storage, is slowing eating away at Thailand's dominance in hard disk drive manufacture.

5. Other factors <redacted>

[t8769]

Most European countries can only dream of such high growth, apart from the UK and a few other countries, Europe is deep in permanent decline.

America isn't doing so well, Russia is struggling as its currency has dropped 50%, the Middle East is going up in flames and S America is not prospering, Brazil is going down hill fast, Venezuela is a failed dictatorship and Argentina simply refuses to pay its debts.

Looks to me like Thailand is doing very well indeed. Stable, prosperous and with a good growth rate.

Yes, 'Climate change' is a real problem, because the climate never changed before. We never had droughts, or floods or hurricanes or anything like that, every year the rain was exactly the same as the year before.

If ever the weather is a little bit different, its 'Climate change'.

Edited October 7, 2015 by t8769

[Seligne2]

Most European countries can only dream of such high growth, many countries would be bankrupt if they were companies. Apart from the UK and a few other countries, Europe is deep in decline.

America isn't doing so well, Russia is struggling, the Middle East is going up in flames and S America is not prospering, Brazil is going down hill fast and Argentina defaulted on its debts.

Looks to me like Thailand is doing very well indeed. Stable, prosperous and with a good growth rate.

Yes, 'Climate change' is a real problem, because the climate never changed before, it was always the same. We never had droughts, or floods or hurricanes or anything like that.

Anytime anything to do with weather happens today that is a bit different, its 'Climate change'.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/environment/720356/thailand-is-facing-extreme-weather

[t8769]

Yes, extreme weather has been happening for millions of years, sometimes the weather is calm sometimes it isn't.

This isn't climate change, its the climate being normal.

When dinasoars roamed the earth there was extreme weather, but no one had thought up the idea of calling it climate change. No money in it back then.

[Seligne2]

The climate is stable, sometimes for long periods of time, then it changes. You and I seem to be of one mind on that. If present trends continue, two rice crops become impossible, which was my point.

[t8769]

'Climate change' is the name given to the idea that the climate is changing now due to human activity.

Perhaps this refers to the weather, which changes all the time.

[12DrinkMore]

Clear out all " Fixed Accounts " and move to Vietnam ... Maybe they dont spread their legs so easy but everything else is better ...

Four negatives.

- The food is not better. Way too much sugar and not enough chilli.

- The unmarried couple sleeping with each other is an issue. You only need a neighbour with a grudge and around come the police. Or you pay for two hotel rooms. This is find totally retarded.

- Still very communist administration.

- Another Asian language with, even in the tourist area of Saigon, worse English spoken than in Thailand.

Otherwise the hassles are just the same, the grass is not so much greener over there than here. Just a different shade.

[12DrinkMore]

1. This government is killing investment in Thailand. The notion of a single gateway puts paid to any foreign company putting significant facilities in the country.

2. Climate change, i.e., not having the rainfall to support two rice crops will kill Thailand's rice exports

3. The culture of corruption and over-exploitation of natural resources is killing the Thai fishing industry.

4. Technological change, e.g., the rise of solid-state disk storage, is slowing eating away at Thailand's dominance in hard disk drive manufacture.

5. Other factors <redacted>

1. a. Yep, what do you expect from a junta? Even more narrow minded than the politicians. b. Won't happen.

2. May get more rain or less rain, some areas have two crops some have one. No change.

3. This is a global issue. Not just Thailand.

4. Yep. They need to move towards SSD in this arena or find something else. The Japanese will be on it already.

5. ???