Economic growth this year to stand at 2.9%



BANGKOK: -- Economic growth this year is expected to stand at 2.9% - the highest growth in three years, according to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

The forecast was based on the growth in the third quarter.

NESDB deputy secretary-general Porametee Vimolsiri stated that the economic growth in the third quarter of this year rose from 2.8% the previous quarter to 2.9%.

He attributed the growth to greater government spending and investment.

He then forecast that this year’s average growth was likely to stand at 2.9%, an increase from 0.9% last year, the highest growth in three years.

The NESDB deputy secretary-general said factors contributing to the growth was tourist arrivals which was expected to be over 30 million this year.

The government’s economic stimulus measures also contributed to the growth as it would also result in greater household consumption and investment.

He said economic growth for next year was expected to be 3-4%, mainly due to the government’s economic stimulus measures, expansion in the tourism industry, as well as the recovery of the global economic situation.

These factors would result in 3% increase in the export sector.

But he also warned of the drought situation in the country and external factor such as China’s economic slowdown which could affect the growth.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/economic-growth-this-year-to-stand-at-2-9


-- Thai PBS 2015-11-17

And the Prime Minister talks that Thais have increase in purchasing power of 5 -7 %. I'd like to know how he has come to that conclusion? Or he means that they will spend (= debt) more?

The growth come only of higher Government spending .

According to an independent agency earlier this week, Thai government expenditure has raised with 40% .

2,9 % that's quite an accurate figure are they sure its not 2,95 %

“Economic growth in the third quarter of this year rose from 2.8% the previous quarter to 2.9%...growth was likely to stand at 2.9%, an increase from 0.9% last year, the highest growth in three years.”

Is 2.9% growth rate a (projected) success for the Junta? Before Somkid’s two-phase economic stimulus:

- “Thailand's growth this year is likely to be below 3 per cent and exports might also flatten or contract, according to latest predictions from many economic houses.” The Nation 2015-08-28.

- “Thanawat Phonwichai, Director of UTCC’s Economic and Business Forecasting Center said, “if cash was injected into the system quickly, the economy should grow 3.1 percent this year, otherwise it should grow between 2.8 and 3 percent.” 2015-09-11

- [the stimulus] “should strengthen economic growth by 0.7-1 percentage point, so GDP should expand by 2.5-2.9 per cent this year. The Nation 2015-09-04

So yes, Somkid’s economic stimulus has and will achieve minimal success. But at the cost of Bt306-342 billion (The Nation 2015-09-02 & 2015-09-09) in capital for the two quarters for 2.9%-2.5% or 0.4% additional increase in the growth rate, the capital outlay hardly seems effective use of taxpayer capital. If invested in the USA's S&P 500 for the third quarter that same capital would have increased 1.5% !

But the outlay will be priceless in terms of propaganda to justify the junta’s rule.

Not exactly what I have read on an english thai newspaper it's forbidden to name here :

" More Thai companies went out of business from January to October compared to the same period last year. The number of corporate closures stood at 2,187 in October, representing 5.58 billion baht in capital.

The figure was 33% higher than in the same month last year and 16% more than the previous month, Pongpan Jiarawiriyapan, director general of the Department of Business Development, said on Tuesday. ..............."