Warning for those going to the Phillipines inthe next week

[IMA_FARANG]

The following rom the Japan Typhoon watch office.

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TY MELOR HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED BY
VERY TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED
EYE THAT HAS CONSTRICTED TO A 6-NM DIAMETER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME VERY DEEP, MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CYCLONE IS JUST SOUTH OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ABOVE 28 CELSIUS), AND A HIGHLY-EFFICIENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY
28W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY
HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND THE CURRENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION RATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO A PEAK OF 135 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON
NEAR SORSOGON. AFTER TAU 12, LAND INTERACTION, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 72, TY 28W WILL
BE REDUCED TO A 40-KNOT TROPICAL STORM