Will self driving cars ever take off in Thailand?

[Jingthing]

Just saw a doc about the amazing progress in self driving car technology happening now in Silicon Valley. It seems within 10 years this is going to be massive in the U.S., Canada, and I assume Europe, etc.

But driving in Thailand and other "something else" world nations is so different! Talking about the driving culture and the motorcycles going in every direction, etc.

Do you think the car software will EVER be smart enough to deal with Thai conditions? Because the idea is to make things safer ...

[IMHO]

No.

Don't believe the hype/PR either - while huge gains have been made, the "last mile" to 100% driverless cars is a very, very, very long way away.

When an insurance company will insure them, they will then become a reality - so that's who you need to listen to to track real progress

Edited January 9, 2016 by IMHO

[Jingthing]

I don't agree. I'm convinced it's coming big time in the U.S. The optimists say 5 years. So more like 10 years. The U.S. has an orderly road system, a people who love high tech, driving is largely being stuck in traffic so not much "fun" anyway, and an aging population. Perfect for this.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Jingthing

[IMHO]

Name one insurance company that will cover them.

[Jingthing]

I'm not talking right now.

The developers will be able to PROVE lower accident rates eventually, and the insurance companies will love it.

Anyway, the PRESUMPTION of this thread is that this IS coming in the west, not an argument that it isn't.

So for those who are able to follow this presumption ... and understand the great difference with traffic in Thailand, that is my question here.

IF it takes off in the west, will Thailand ever follow, and if so, how many years or decades later?

Edited January 9, 2016 by Jingthing

[IMHO]

I'm not talking right now.

The developers will be able to PROVE lower accident rates eventually, and the insurance companies will love it.

Anyway, the PRESUMPTION of this thread is that this IS coming in the west, not an argument that it isn't.

So for those who are able to follow this presumption ... and understand the great difference with traffic in Thailand, that is my question here.

IF it takes off in the west, will Thailand ever follow, and if so, how many years or decades later?

I deal with actuaries every other day - they do not love anything about 100% driverless cars, now, or in 5/10/15/20 years time - they are very excited about semi-autonomous cars though

Edit: I'm not challenging you BTW - full respect - I'm challenging that presumption, which the media so loves to put out there

Edited January 9, 2016 by IMHO

[canthai55]

Spend the money to teach people the world over to drive, and all this will be pointless. If you want a self driving car, take a bus or taxi.

Same as all this lane assist, following too close, auto headlight switches, - fluff for an unsuspecting public caught up in needing the newest and best, even if it dumbs them down in the process. Fashion over function Mak Mak

[Gulfsailor]

I don't think the current private car insurance companies like a 100% self driving car at all. Car Insurance companies like accidents, as this is what makes people want insurance, resulting in they make a profit on it. Without accidents no need for insurance. And even in the case of an accident, without a driver it is always the car's fault or a third party involved. In case of the car's fault, the manufacturer is liable. At the most the company liability coverage of manufacturer's insurance would go up.

Edit to add; my guess is 10yr US, 12yr EU, Japan and Korea, 15-30yr rest of world including Thailand, at which point private drive motorcycles will be banned outright, and affordable autonomous car's (2 seater) will replace them.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Gulfsailor

[IMHO]

Spend the money to teach people the world over to drive, and all this will be pointless. If you want a self driving car, take a bus or taxi.

Same as all this lane assist, following too close, auto headlight switches, - fluff for an unsuspecting public caught up in needing the newest and best, even if it dumbs them down in the process. Fashion over function Mak Mak

But you also need to train/teach/condition them to not get pissed off, not break the rules, and not take any risks. Given the broad spread of personalities, capabilities, cultures and IQ out there, that's one very big challenge.

Still, an easier one than trying to design an AI that makes life threatening decisions as well as a basic human

[canthai55]

Ah Yes - the Great Education debate ! Agree with you 100%, but despair of ever seeing it in my lifetime. But that is a topic for another thread.

[Ace of Pop]

Computer Fled Sean. "Blake Fay" error reads.

[cumgranosalum]

you assume that conditions in Thailand are set in stone?

[Asiantravel]

I don't agree. I'm convinced it's coming big time in the U.S. The optimists say 5 years. So more like 10 years. The U.S. has an orderly road system, a people who love high tech, driving is largely being stuck in traffic so not much "fun" anyway, and an aging population. Perfect for this.

I agree with you 100% and the economic ramifications are going to be unbearable

remember this?

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." --

Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

Self-Driving Trucks Are Going to Hit Us Like a Human-Driven Truck

We are facing the decimation of entire small town economies, a disruption the likes of which we haven’t seen since the construction of the interstate highway system itself bypassed entire towns. If you think this may be a bit of hyperbole… let me back up a bit and start with this: in USA there are 8.7 million trucking-related jobs.

https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961#.q4hfd1hw4

Edited January 9, 2016 by Asiantravel

[IMHO]

you assume that conditions in Thailand are set in stone?

Not sure who you're asking

If it's me, no, not at all.

While we still have human drivers, and machines that can have a multitude of faults without warning, there's simply too much unpredictability in "what's going to happen next" for driverless AI to succeed.

Once all, bar none, cars are driverless, it works. But how do you make that transition?

That's the challenge

[JaseTheBass]

It should be compulsory in Asia.

[IMHO]

It should be compulsory in Asia.

Except for you, right?

I mean, you still want the ability to go faster than the 40km/hr all the driverless cars are maxxing out at, and you certainly want to take advantage of those huge gaps they leave between themselves, and advantage of every other overly-cautious manoeuvre they make that you can capitalize on , right?

Edited January 9, 2016 by IMHO

[cumgranosalum]

Of course it will come.....if Ford GM and Toyota are involved......however it is probable that Thailand will have to follow countries like US and those in Europe...... if it takes off there then Thailand will have no option but to follow.

As in all countries these cars will require roads to be adapted as problems unravel and our perception of personal transport changes - I think it is quite likely that some roads just won't be suitalbe but like a rail system the system will spread stage by stage.

When one says "in my lifetime" surely that will depend largely on how old you are?

Edited January 9, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[Asiantravel]

The first driverless cars will actually be a bunch of trucks

Trucks. The future of driverless driving is all about trucks. So forget about that sensor-equipped Volkswagen Passat, and get ready for a 40-ton Peterbuilt 18-wheeler.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2046262/the-first-driverless-cars-will-actually-be-a-bunch-of-trucks.html

[lonewolf99]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track. I even saw one stupid stunt about one that could recognise people shaped objects in its path. They shoved a shop manniquin on wheels in front of the car and it immediately swerved around it...great !!! In a real traffic situation, right into oncoming traffic...!!!

Many of these cars work by detecting what is going on around them. In Thailand this can be at best described as totally manic. The car would never leave the kerb side. When you even have someone pushing what is actually a kitchen on wheels with boiling oil, water and an open fire burning away on it right in the middle of mad rush hour traffic. Insurance companies are going to have a field day.....remember there is no laws about litigation here, the fallang is to blame everytime.....

I know who is behind these madcap ideas...lazy computer geeks that never lift their heads from a PC Screen, phone screen or laptop and live in a geeky techy bubble. The fact that they want to be totally fixated on their computerised devise during their every waking moment does not tie in with sitting in a car and having to bleeding well concentrate on something important, and they have never been outside California never mind drive in Bangkok.

Maybe in 2525 when humans have morphed into a fat cyclops blob, with no legs and one arm with one finger and a thumb on the end of it, jabbing away at some inane Crystal game for 6 years olds.

So in answer to JT.....No

[IMHO]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

Edited January 9, 2016 by IMHO

[cumgranosalum]

The first driverless cars will actually be a bunch of trucks

Trucks. The future of driverless driving is all about trucks. So forget about that sensor-equipped Volkswagen Passat, and get ready for a 40-ton Peterbuilt 18-wheeler.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2046262/the-first-driverless-cars-will-actually-be-a-bunch-of-trucks.html

Driverless trucks may face opposition if they use standard public roads.....road trains have been around for years and convoys are illegal for the same reasons that a chain of driverless trucks would present.

Edited January 9, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[IMHO]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track. I even saw one stupid stunt about one that could recognise people shaped objects in its path. They shoved a shop manniquin on wheels in front of the car and it immediately swerved around it...great !!! In a real traffic situation, right into oncoming traffic...!!!

Many of these cars work by detecting what is going on around them. In Thailand this can be at best described as totally manic. The car would never leave the kerb side. When you even have someone pushing what is actually a kitchen on wheels with boiling oil, water and an open fire burning away on it right in the middle of mad rush hour traffic. Insurance companies are going to have a field day.....remember there is no laws about litigation here, the fallang is to blame everytime.....

I know who is behind these madcap ideas...lazy computer geeks that never lift their heads from a PC Screen, phone screen or laptop and live in a geeky techy bubble. The fact that they want to be totally fixated on their computerised devise during their every waking moment does not tie in with sitting in a car and having to bleeding well concentrate on something important, and they have never been outside California never mind drive in Bangkok.

Maybe in 2525 when humans have morphed into a fat cyclops blob, with no legs and one arm with one finger and a thumb on the end of it, jabbing away at some inane Crystal game for 6 years olds.

So in answer to JT.....No

Not all oft hem run on tracks... there are several driving right now, very slowly, on actual roads - but with a human pilot on standby of course.

Your post reminds me of my time in a car with Lane Keeping Assist enabled though. As I'm a relatively competent driver who uses my indicators before changing lanes, the only time it had occasion to intervene was when I was forced to cross the white line to avoid a motorcycle, bicycle, pedestrian or stray dog. What happens next is a struggle between man and machine so you don't kill something.

My advice: Don't buy a car if that feature is included and can't be defeated.

[cumgranosalum]

No.

Don't believe the hype/PR either - while huge gains have been made, the "last mile" to 100% driverless cars is a very, very, very long way away.

When an insurance company will insure them, they will then become a reality - so that's who you need to listen to to track real progress

Some already have limited permissions in the US.

[cumgranosalum]

I think those who "deny" the driverless car are those who also grossly overestimate the skills required to drive safely and so can't bring themselves to admit that their ability to drive is not some kind of earth-shattering, superhuman skill, but in reality just something easily undertaken by a bit of "smart" technology.....

Edited January 9, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[cumgranosalum]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track. I even saw one stupid stunt about one that could recognise people shaped objects in its path. They shoved a shop manniquin on wheels in front of the car and it immediately swerved around it...great !!! In a real traffic situation, right into oncoming traffic...!!!

Many of these cars work by detecting what is going on around them. In Thailand this can be at best described as totally manic. The car would never leave the kerb side. When you even have someone pushing what is actually a kitchen on wheels with boiling oil, water and an open fire burning away on it right in the middle of mad rush hour traffic. Insurance companies are going to have a field day.....remember there is no laws about litigation here, the fallang is to blame everytime.....

I know who is behind these madcap ideas...lazy computer geeks that never lift their heads from a PC Screen, phone screen or laptop and live in a geeky techy bubble. The fact that they want to be totally fixated on their computerised devise during their every waking moment does not tie in with sitting in a car and having to bleeding well concentrate on something important, and they have never been outside California never mind drive in Bangkok.

Maybe in 2525 when humans have morphed into a fat cyclops blob, with no legs and one arm with one finger and a thumb on the end of it, jabbing away at some inane Crystal game for 6 years olds.

So in answer to JT.....No

Looks like Lonewolf has been on his own too long and needs to catch up on the latest developments in driverless cars......and maybe a bit of computer and IT while he's at it?

[cumgranosalum]

trying to predict the future with these cars is quite difficult...one can think of other bits of technology that have come into the public domain only to have their use radically changed in a vary short space of time.

personal computers were made and known for a while before the spreadsheet and subsequent apps made them a sought-after household/commercial device.

The mobile phone was around for only a short time before it turned out that the SMS was to become just about the most popular feature - completely unpredicted by the phone companies. Video phone calls have been available for decades but even now are not a major feature - people don't want to be seen during a phone call, but if you believed eery sci-fi TV show and movie in the 50s and 60s they would be a standard household appliance by now......in fact video VOIP is still not the most popular way of using that facility even though it is FREE.

So I think it remains to be seen how the driverless car is taken to by the general public, it involves infrastructure and lifestyle changes that we are yet to imagine.

[Jingthing]

Maybe they should start in Thailand with self driving motorcycles ...

[JaseTheBass]

It should be compulsory in Asia.

Except for you, right?

No. Everyone, including me.

Edited January 9, 2016 by JaseTheBass

[cumgranosalum]

Maybe they should start in Thailand with self driving motorcycles ...

i think they already have them?..it would appear that many motorcyclists in Thailand are already preoccupied with various other activities other than controlling their vehicle whilst in motion

[Gulfsailor]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track. I even saw one stupid stunt about one that could recognise people shaped objects in its path. They shoved a shop manniquin on wheels in front of the car and it immediately swerved around it...great !!! In a real traffic situation, right into oncoming traffic...!!!

Many of these cars work by detecting what is going on around them. In Thailand this can be at best described as totally manic. The car would never leave the kerb side. When you even have someone pushing what is actually a kitchen on wheels with boiling oil, water and an open fire burning away on it right in the middle of mad rush hour traffic. Insurance companies are going to have a field day.....remember there is no laws about litigation here, the fallang is to blame everytime.....

I know who is behind these madcap ideas...lazy computer geeks that never lift their heads from a PC Screen, phone screen or laptop and live in a geeky techy bubble. The fact that they want to be totally fixated on their computerised devise during their every waking moment does not tie in with sitting in a car and having to bleeding well concentrate on something important, and they have never been outside California never mind drive in Bangkok.

Maybe in 2525 when humans have morphed into a fat cyclops blob, with no legs and one arm with one finger and a thumb on the end of it, jabbing away at some inane Crystal game for 6 years olds.

So in answer to JT.....No

Looks like Lonewolf has been on his own too long and needs to catch up on the latest developments in driverless cars......and maybe a bit of computer and IT while he's at it?

I agree. The entire idea of an AI system is that it learns. And even though I consider myself a good driver (no accident yet in 20yr driving cars), I can't imagine ever having a percentage of the experience that millions of autonomous cars would have after only a few days of learning on Thai roads. All cars are linked through an AI mainframe. For instance in the pothole example by IMHO, your autonomous car would never have driven through it if an autonomous car before had already made that mistake. Sure, the transition period maybe a bit messy, but I don't think that will last more than a few weeks at the most. By then the combined time of all the autonomous cars in a certain area would add up to decades or centuries of individual driver's experience.