Scottish bank's advice: Sell everything

[dexterm]

Beware trying to catch the falling knife, so ...

Either,

Do as RBS says and stand aside until a clear trend established..

Or,

Buy a diverse basket of top quality div paying companies when they are oversold eg. their RSI is below or approaching 30%.and/or bouncing off support. But never use borrowed funds or derivatives to do so because they may fall even further.Be able to ride out the storm for 12 months or more if you get it wrong.

Or,

Momentum invest. Follow the price action going long or short, pyramid if possible, set sensible Stop Losses and stick to them...best to set them on auto overnight, so you can't change your mind. Mental stops are exactly that. Limit losses and preserve your capital at all costs or you are out of the game.

Good luck.

Edited January 13, 2016 by dexterm

[wabothai]

Sounds like sensible advise

How about, where there is a seller there is a buyer.

[HerbalEd]

One of the major brokers is saying if stocks fall a bit more, it's a great time to buy. Especially European stocks as they are priced a bit lower.

I read a great article about forecasting recessions. The consensus was economists rarely forecast reliably! LOL

Well, if one broker said it then it must be true. Nothing like sound investment advice.

[NeverSure]

I am actually quite shocked by this RBS statement, sounds more like they have an agenda and interested parties have perhaps shorted the market, dangerous thin line they are walking, good advise or scare mongering to create a panic and orchestrate a collapse

Yes…disgusting….far more honourable to talk up the markets, because you have an agenda…stir up fake optimism mongering to create irrational exuberance and orchestrate a lining of your own pockets, via sales/brokering commissions etc.

RBS - saved from bankruptcy and dissolution by the British tax payer. A great example of the old maxim - safe as a bank...................... not.

Not exactly the greatest experts on the planet. at anything.

Sure it's looking like a turbulent 2016, and they're following what Soros and some other punters have already said. They are not thought leaders in anyway shape or form.

As far as I'm aware ALL the so called expert investment banks in the US have been saved by taxpayers money, so what's the difference with RBS?

They all - every one of them, paid it back. They were loans. Those that didn't have any hope of paying it back were merged with those that could. The auto manufacturers also paid their loans back. TARP didn't generate losses for the taxpayer. In most cases the taxpayers earned interest on the money.

I agree that there were a lot of short sighted people who contributed to the crash with over-exuberance about the markets.

Cheers.

[NeverSure]

The difference is that those banks aren't forecasting the Apocalypse. RBS is.

No those banks are calling you to invest more money, then bet against you, the major reason why 2007 is a fact and probably is in the process of repeating itself though at a much larger scale.

I tend to agree with you, many economies are in serious trouble, including the U.S. of course no one will admit to it. I follow economics and politics worldwide and have done so just out of personal interest for twenty years.

They just continue to print money.

If you are another one who buys into the myth that the US "continues to print money" then you don't follow much. When the US needs money it borrows it and thus the rise in national debt. It is illegal internally for the US to "print money" except to replace damaged money ("mutts") and to keep pace with inflation. Adjusted for inflation, there are no more USD in the world today than there were 30 years ago.

This is just one of the reasons that the USD is considered a flight to safety, and remains the world's reserve currency. Other places such as the EU print the hell out of money when they need it and that's what you want to get away from.

Cheers.

[NeverSure]

Beware trying to catch the falling knife, so ...

Either,

Do as RBS says and stand aside until a clear trend established..

Or,

Buy a diverse basket of top quality div paying companies when they are oversold eg. their RSI is below or approaching 30%.and/or bouncing off support. But never use borrowed funds or derivatives to do so because they may fall even further.Be able to ride out the storm for 12 months or more if you get it wrong.

Or,

Momentum invest. Follow the price action going long or short, pyramid if possible, set sensible Stop Losses and stick to them...best to set them on auto overnight, so you can't change your mind. Mental stops are exactly that. Limit losses and preserve your capital at all costs or you are out of the game.

Good luck.

While I don't disagree, I consider all of that to be a pain in the butt. But, that's just for me.

I have stocks I've had for a very long time because I like the companies. I have ridden those stocks up and down but always the long term trend has been up. If I drew a straight line graph from when I bought them, all would be up a great deal. That would ignore the down times.

I also get a good dividend on them which has been far better than interest rates have been for the past few years. I don't invest nearly all in the markets and what I do has to do the work for me, and not the other way around. I will sell those stocks only if their fundamentals begin to age and fade and not because of what I think the market is going to do.

Cheers.

[trogers]

Sounds like sensible advise

How about, where there is a seller there is a buyer.

Not for Chinese stocks at the moment...1000 sellers with only a buyer...

[trogers]

Beware trying to catch the falling knife, so ...

Either,

Do as RBS says and stand aside until a clear trend established..

Or,

Buy a diverse basket of top quality div paying companies when they are oversold eg. their RSI is below or approaching 30%.and/or bouncing off support. But never use borrowed funds or derivatives to do so because they may fall even further.Be able to ride out the storm for 12 months or more if you get it wrong.

Or,

Momentum invest. Follow the price action going long or short, pyramid if possible, set sensible Stop Losses and stick to them...best to set them on auto overnight, so you can't change your mind. Mental stops are exactly that. Limit losses and preserve your capital at all costs or you are out of the game.

Good luck.

While I don't disagree, I consider all of that to be a pain in the butt. But, that's just for me.

I have stocks I've had for a very long time because I like the companies. I have ridden those stocks up and down but always the long term trend has been up. If I drew a straight line graph from when I bought them, all would be up a great deal. That would ignore the down times.

I also get a good dividend on them which has been far better than interest rates have been for the past few years. I don't invest nearly all in the markets and what I do has to do the work for me, and not the other way around. I will sell those stocks only if their fundamentals begin to age and fade and not because of what I think the market is going to do.

Cheers.

Warren Buffett Jr.?

[trogers]

The difference is that those banks aren't forecasting the Apocalypse. RBS is.

No those banks are calling you to invest more money, then bet against you, the major reason why 2007 is a fact and probably is in the process of repeating itself though at a much larger scale.

I tend to agree with you, many economies are in serious trouble, including the U.S. of course no one will admit to it. I follow economics and politics worldwide and have done so just out of personal interest for twenty years.

They just continue to print money.

If you are another one who buys into the myth that the US "continues to print money" then you don't follow much. When the US needs money it borrows it and thus the rise in national debt. It is illegal internally for the US to "print money" except to replace damaged money ("mutts") and to keep pace with inflation. Adjusted for inflation, there are no more USD in the world today than there were 30 years ago.

This is just one of the reasons that the USD is considered a flight to safety, and remains the world's reserve currency. Other places such as the EU print the hell out of money when they need it and that's what you want to get away from.

Cheers.

Who wants printed money when electronic cash transfers are preferred? The QEs of the Feds only created electronic cash out of an empty piggy bank.

[Dustdevil]

i like the (return the capital ,not return on capital) I already did that everything now in government protected quaranteed investments. not great returns but returns none the less.

Governments guarantee interest rates, but can dilute your capital by printing more money to pay you...?

"Can" is the operative word. QE did not result in any unwanted inflation in the U.S.

[Dustdevil]

The Treasury Dept (not the Fed) electronically created dollar amounts and used them to buy difficult-to-liquidate bonds from banks in exchange for dollars which were then supposed to be lent out to businesses and even individuals. (How much was actually lent may be debatable.) It's called a liquidity swap. "Printing currency" is just figure of speech, a metaphor for liquidity swap.

Edited January 13, 2016 by Dustdevil

[Mr Creosote]

I think it was Warren Buffet who said something like... Buy when everyone's fearful and when everyone's greedily buying, sell. It may well soon prove to be a time to buy.

Yep, stay in cash or near-cash. FX is also a play. The stock market is just too hairy at the moment IMHO with too many confusing indicators. Its getting hard to even value a company and it seems, there are very few bargains at the moment. Wait for the next bear and pick up the bargains.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Mr Creosote

[trogers]

i like the (return the capital ,not return on capital) I already did that everything now in government protected quaranteed investments. not great returns but returns none the less.

Governments guarantee interest rates, but can dilute your capital by printing more money to pay you...?

"Can" is the operative word. QE did not result in any unwanted inflation in the U.S.

? Inflation did not appear in the real economy.

The extra money inflated the financial markets...thus the expected crash that this Scottish bank is warning about...

[Langsuan Man]

Depends

If you buy to trade then you should probably get out

But if you own equities for dividends and interest stay the course

Earnings and profits are up for quality companies and that is all I care about. Didn't panic during the housing crisis and my monthly income pretty much stayed the same since profits are distributed to share holders based upon the number of shares they own, not how much those shares are worth on the market

[GinBoy2]

Whether or not they are right or wrong, isn't this one of the UK banks who went horribly bankrupt requiring millions of pounds in taxpayer money to bail them out?

I'm probably as good taking financial advice from my cat...she channels George Sorros don't ya know. Lol

[wabothai]

Better to just have a little money to just get by.

[Mr Money Bags]

Whether or not they are right or wrong, isn't this one of the UK banks who went horribly bankrupt requiring millions of pounds in taxpayer money to bail them out?

I'm probably as good taking financial advice from my cat...she channels George Sorros don't ya know. Lol

Financial advice from your cat would probably be more sound......

You're Welcome!!

[TheCruncher]

As far as I'm aware ALL the so called expert investment banks in the US have been saved by taxpayers money, so what's the difference with RBS?

They all - every one of them, paid it back. They were loans. Those that didn't have any hope of paying it back were merged with those that could. The auto manufacturers also paid their loans back. TARP didn't generate losses for the taxpayer. In most cases the taxpayers earned interest on the money.

I agree that there were a lot of short sighted people who contributed to the crash with over-exuberance about the markets.

Cheers.

Nothing more to say, people should watch this movie, then get back to you.