China economic growth edged down to 6.8 percent last quarter

[webfact]

China economic growth edged down to 6.8 percent last quarter
JOE McDONALD, AP Business Writer

BEIJING (AP) — China's economic growth edged down to 6.8 percent in the final quarter of 2015 as trade and consumer spending weakened, dragging full-year growth to its lowest level in 25 years.

Chinese leaders are trying to reduce reliance on trade and investment by nurturing slower, more self-sustaining growth based on domestic consumption and services. But the unexpectedly sharp decline over the past two years prompted fears of a politically dangerous spike in job losses. Beijing responded by cutting interest rates and taking other steps to shore up growth.

Full-year growth declined to 6.9 percent, the lowest level since sanctions imposed on Beijing following its crackdown on the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement caused growth to plummet to 3.8 percent in 1990.

The October-December growth figure was the lowest quarterly expansion since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when growth slumped to 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Growth in the July-September quarter of 2009 was 6.9 percent.

Investment in factories, housing and other fixed assets, a key economic driver, weakened to 12 percent in 2015, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous year. Retail sales growth cooled to 10.6 percent from 2014's 12 percent.

"The international situation remains complex," said Wang Bao'an, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, as a news conference. "Restructuring and upgrading is in an uphill stage. Comprehensively deepening reform is a daunting task."


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-01-19

[trogers]

My favourite formula that I use to bring China stats into reality is the square root.

[Usernames]

And the numbers are fixed. The only people who believe it are the rubes investing in the Chinese stock market.

[bark]

And the numbers are fixed. The only people who believe it are the rubes investing in the Chinese stock market.

Agreed. Fixed. If the government ever announced the real drop; 6.1 or 5.8 % etc etc. It would be like 1929 in the States.

[elgordo38]

And the numbers are fixed. The only people who believe it are the rubes investing in the Chinese stock market.

Yes the Oracle of China has fed the stock market his favorite Kool-Aid again and they drank it. Its amazing that the populous still believe in this guy. How many times does one have to get burnt before learning not to touch. He has told so many big ones its time to go to the wood carver and get his nose trimmed. The America market refreshed after a holiday weekend will no doubt jump on the bandwagon and the party will stagger on till the next speed bump (tope) This is a big earnings week so look for a lot of salad dressing on wilted lettuce. All the companies will be trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear. The Empire Manufacturing Index just hit a low last seen in 2009 and the Baltic Dry Index is at an all time low but then the spin doctors will be working the crowd telling investors to buy on the dips. Oh what a crazy world.

[tonbridgebrit]

Does the Chinese economy contracting mean that there will be a small dent in the number of Chinese tourists turning up in Pattaya ?

Has there actually been a very small reduction in the number of Chinese tourists in Pattaya ?

[LawrenceChee]

Nope there is an estimated upsurge with the upcoming spring festival in Feb

[Publicus]

Interested members are invited to peruse two articles that will save a long stemwinding post.

Chinas GDP Figures Divide Economists, But How Does The Economy Look From Factory Floors And Storefronts?

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-gdp-figures-divide-economists-how-does-economy-look-factory-floors-storefronts-2270432

Will 2016 Bring the Collapse of Chinas Economy?

China's global dominance, something analysts say is inevitable, will have to wait.

The severity of China's economic problems-and the inability to implement long-term solutions-mean almost all geopolitical assumptions about tomorrow are wrong. Virtually everyone today sees China as a major power in the future. Yet the country's extraordinary economic difficulties will result in a collapse or a long-term decline, and either outcome suggests China will return to the ranks of weak states.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-2016-bring-the-collapse-chinas-economy-14753

[tonbridgebrit]

Chinese tour groups are massive, they cause 'people congestion' in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Pattaya.

Now then, is the flood going to get bigger or stay the same ?? Can people stop producing all this 'hot air' about the supposed collapse of the Chinese economy, can they please say whether the flood of Chinese tourists going to London, Paris, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tokyo, Pattaya, will the flood's increase get smaller ?

Will it have no effect whatsover on the increasing flood. That's what we want to know.

[Publicus]

Capital continues to flee CCP China by Chinese themselves and the amounts of capital dwarf any tourist money CCP Chinese tourists distribute to global tourist hot spots, or that creates a domestic tourism industry.

In Q3 alone $508 billion of capital fled the CCP, more than $800 billion through November to include foreign capital. The new number now out for December capital flight is $108 billion. This pressures the currency all the more. And it worsens capital outflow yet more.

This is the trend and it is getting only stronger as CCP Chinese as well as foreign corporations escape the crumbling economy.

The modern Chinese entrepreneur lives by the saying to "make it here and use it over there." Which means to exploit the CCP confounding and contradictory economy to the max, then take family and fortune out of the CCP China before it gets too late. These Chinese entrepreneurs with their families and fortunes always flee to the West, primarily North America, Europe, Australia.

The CCP Chinese tourists we see are the zombie losers who remain behind. They will suffer the steady and bumpy downtrend but they will not suffer as the other billion Chinese will suffer.

The CCP Boyz in Beijing have been running a scam that fooled a lot of the people a lot of the time. But it never fooled everyone even some of the time.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Publicus

[tonbridgebrit]

Right, so basically, what people are trying to say is, is that that the economy in China is crashing, but the number of Chinese tourists in Pataya will stay the same.

Or, they will carry on increasing.

Let's get real here, all that talk of China going into bankruptcy is actually a load of nonsense. Let's look at the real world. Once we start seeing less traffic jams in Pattaya because the busses and coaches carrying Chinese tourists are actually getting less, once we see that, that's when we will know that China is getting poorer.

And if China IS getting poorer, but the flood of Chinese tourists in Pattaya is getting bigger, well, what on earth has the "Chinese crash" got to do with us ??

[LawrenceChee]

The reality is while the Chinese economy may be heading for a correction , the Chinese have in their practices always been saving for a rainy day

So even with a market correction , it does not stop the middle class tourists from flying into Neighbouring countries for a short holiday

The value continues to stay very strong in Thailand to attract that so does Singapore and Cambodia etc

Hong Kong has soured because they have reacted badly and deserving so now they are getting the cold shoulders so while I have empathy for those who work in the hospitality and related business I am Glad the Chinese as a group is maturing as a consumer group and no longer tolerate crap given to them

For every misbehaving crazy scooter Chinese that spits and has bad habits there are 7-10 well behaved ones with money to spend ....it would be dumb for any country to ignore that

[Prbkk]

Right, so basically, what people are trying to say is, is that that the economy in China is crashing, but the number of Chinese tourists in Pataya will stay the same.

Or, they will carry on increasing.

Let's get real here, all that talk of China going into bankruptcy is actually a load of nonsense. Let's look at the real world. Once we start seeing less traffic jams in Pattaya because the busses and coaches carrying Chinese tourists are actually getting less, once we see that, that's when we will know that China is getting poorer.

And if China IS getting poorer, but the flood of Chinese tourists in Pattaya is getting bigger, well, what on earth has the "Chinese crash" got to do with us ??

The numbers will grow: Thailand is close, cheap, easy entry, etc etc. Not great for the upmarket properties because the Chinese do not stay at them.

Thailand represents an affordable short break, it's the more expensive and distant places that wil suffer from this downturn

[Publicus]

People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe.

The topic is the fact the CCP economy is in a sharp decline bordering at a precipice looking into the abyss. Once emerging markets driven by the CCP China are fast submerging with only the USA managing to strengthen its currency and position.

Brics are effectively defunct with India growing at 7.7% last year and growth in India is capital based, not overly dependent on manufacturing or exports.

Citicorp said the other day CCP grew 4% at best this year. Others such as Lombard Street Research in London say between 2% to 4% because nothing is clear as to which. Daiwa Securities a few months ago projected a 20% loss off GDP by 2020. Currency speculators are moving against the yuan which is traded offshore in Hong Kong.

The gap between the mainland yuan and the yuan in Hong Kong which is traded offshore remains wide. If CCP is going to run a two-tier currency system as it has been doing all along, it's going to have to keep the two tiers tightly parallel, not divergent. Yuan in HKG is even more depreciated than the onshore yuan, which is why currency speculators are moving in on it. CCP loses control of its monopoly money currency and it is game over then and there.

CCP's personal central bank, the People's Bank of China, has already expended one-sixth of its forex reserves to protect the yuan against continuing export declines and swelling capital outflows, yet now it has to throw more of its forex reserves into the markets to fight speculators. Defending the yuan against speculators requires taking it temporarily out of circulation (by raising rates up to 200% as CCP did a week ago). This however creates a yuan black hole.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Publicus

[tonbridgebrit]

People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe.

The topic is the fact the CCP economy is in a sharp decline bordering at a precipice looking into the abyss. Once emerging markets driven by the CCP China are fast submerging with only the USA managing to strengthen its currency and position.

Brics are effectively defunct with India growing at 7.7% last year and growth in India is capital based, not overly dependent on manufacturing or exports.

Citicorp said the other day CCP grew 4% at best this year. Others such as Lombard Street Research in London say between 2% to 4% because nothing is clear as to which. Daiwa Securities a few months ago projected a 20% loss off GDP by 2020. Currency speculators are moving against the yuan which is traded offshore in Hong Kong.

The gap between the mainland yuan and the yuan in Hong Kong which is traded offshore remains wide. If CCP is going to run a two-tier currency system as it has been doing all along, it's going to have to keep the two tiers tightly parallel, not divergent. Yuan in HKG is even more depreciated than the onshore yuan, which is why currency speculators are moving in on it. CCP loses control of its monopoly money currency and it is game over then and there.

CCP's personal central bank, the People's Bank of China, has already expended one-sixth of its forex reserves to protect the yuan against continuing export declines and swelling capital outflows, yet now it has to throw more of its forex reserves into the markets to fight speculators. Defending the yuan against speculators requires taking it temporarily out of circulation (by raising rates up to 200% as CCP did a week ago). This however creates a yuan black hole.

"People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe."

Publicus, I suggest you stop living in your fantasy world, where you love to be a Washington cheerleader, going on and on about the collapse of the Chinese economy !!

Look, let's have evidence as to what is happening. In your fantasy world, China is heading for bankruptcy. Now, let's look at the real world. Traffic jams in Pattaya are simply not becoming less and less. The number of Chinese tourists coming to Thailand is not actually falling in a major way. The reason why the number is not falling is because they've still got enough money to turn up in Thailand. Hence, traffic jams caused by busses and coaches of Chinese tourists are still there.

Okay, Americans living in America will notice that there are still a load of Chinese goods in WalMart, that is simply not changing. As long as WalMart's import bill from China is billions of dollars per quarter, well, that means China is staying afloat, with a load of Chinese being able to afford a foreign holiday.

All that talk of the Chinese stock market crashing ? The index rose massively during the year prior to the crash last year, yes, we're seeing a correction.

Oh look, an American bank reckons that China's economy grew 4% in 2015. And how much did Taiwan's economy grow by ? What about Japan ? What about South Africa ? What about the European Union ? What about Britain ?

I'd love to see Britain have economic growth of 4% per year. I'd call that an economic boom, I'd call Britain the 'European Lion' if it was to happen !

Publicus, you come here and cheer on the collapse of the Chinese economy. How about you look at Washington's puppet, Saudi Arabia. The world oil price is now at about 27 USD a barrel. Washington's puppet is heading for bankruptcy, but who on ThaiVisa wants to cheer this on ? Also, America's neighbour, Canada, Canada looking into the abyss is a far more realistic thing than China looking at economic problems. Yes, the collapse in oil prices will harm Canada's economy, Canadian heavy oil sells for less than West Texas Intermediate. But who in their right mind would want to cheer on Canada's collapsing economy ?? Why do it ??

[Publicus]

People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe.

The topic is the fact the CCP economy is in a sharp decline bordering at a precipice looking into the abyss. Once emerging markets driven by the CCP China are fast submerging with only the USA managing to strengthen its currency and position.

Brics are effectively defunct with India growing at 7.7% last year and growth in India is capital based, not overly dependent on manufacturing or exports.

Citicorp said the other day CCP grew 4% at best this year. Others such as Lombard Street Research in London say between 2% to 4% because nothing is clear as to which. Daiwa Securities a few months ago projected a 20% loss off GDP by 2020. Currency speculators are moving against the yuan which is traded offshore in Hong Kong.

The gap between the mainland yuan and the yuan in Hong Kong which is traded offshore remains wide. If CCP is going to run a two-tier currency system as it has been doing all along, it's going to have to keep the two tiers tightly parallel, not divergent. Yuan in HKG is even more depreciated than the onshore yuan, which is why currency speculators are moving in on it. CCP loses control of its monopoly money currency and it is game over then and there.

CCP's personal central bank, the People's Bank of China, has already expended one-sixth of its forex reserves to protect the yuan against continuing export declines and swelling capital outflows, yet now it has to throw more of its forex reserves into the markets to fight speculators. Defending the yuan against speculators requires taking it temporarily out of circulation (by raising rates up to 200% as CCP did a week ago). This however creates a yuan black hole.

"People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe."

Publicus, I suggest you stop living in your fantasy world, where you love to be a Washington cheerleader, going on and on about the collapse of the Chinese economy !!

Look, let's have evidence as to what is happening. In your fantasy world, China is heading for bankruptcy. Now, let's look at the real world. Traffic jams in Pattaya are simply not becoming less and less. The number of Chinese tourists coming to Thailand is not actually falling in a major way. The reason why the number is not falling is because they've still got enough money to turn up in Thailand. Hence, traffic jams caused by busses and coaches of Chinese tourists are still there.

Okay, Americans living in America will notice that there are still a load of Chinese goods in WalMart, that is simply not changing. As long as WalMart's import bill from China is billions of dollars per quarter, well, that means China is staying afloat, with a load of Chinese being able to afford a foreign holiday.

All that talk of the Chinese stock market crashing ? The index rose massively during the year prior to the crash last year, yes, we're seeing a correction.

Oh look, an American bank reckons that China's economy grew 4% in 2015. And how much did Taiwan's economy grow by ? What about Japan ? What about South Africa ? What about the European Union ? What about Britain ?

I'd love to see Britain have economic growth of 4% per year. I'd call that an economic boom, I'd call Britain the 'European Lion' if it was to happen !

Publicus, you come here and cheer on the collapse of the Chinese economy. How about you look at Washington's puppet, Saudi Arabia. The world oil price is now at about 27 USD a barrel. Washington's puppet is heading for bankruptcy, but who on ThaiVisa wants to cheer this on ? Also, America's neighbour, Canada, Canada looking into the abyss is a far more realistic thing than China looking at economic problems. Yes, the collapse in oil prices will harm Canada's economy, Canadian heavy oil sells for less than West Texas Intermediate. But who in their right mind would want to cheer on Canada's collapsing economy ?? Why do it ??

It's wise in the post to finally move away from using travel and tourism to try to judge the CCP economy. Throwing Saudi Arabia and Canada into the mix does not mix so it would be best to leave that behind too.

All that talk of the Chinese stock market crashing ? The index rose massively during the year prior to the crash last year, yes, we're seeing a correction.

We're seeing the disappearance of a stock market. The rising index had been artificial, a fraud. The result has been a CCP stock market loss equivalent to the GDP of Germany. CCP has shown it can't run even an artificial stock market.

You have completely missed the salient point global markets have begun to realise the CCP Boys in Beijing are no longer in charge of their economy and its financial system. If the Boyz ever had been in charge.

CCP have built an unsustainable economic centrally planned paradigm. It is moreover disjointed and beyond the control of anyone. As US investor Jim Chanos pointed out years ago, "Chinese banks are built on quicksand." So is the whole of its economy which needs a fundamental and pervasive reform and new foundation but isn't getting any of it, so the whole edifice is sinking instead.

Currency speculators are homing in on the offshore yuan which is more depreciated than the mainland yuan. It is obvious no CCP fanboy posting here has a clue.

[tonbridgebrit]

People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe.

The topic is the fact the CCP economy is in a sharp decline bordering at a precipice looking into the abyss. Once emerging markets driven by the CCP China are fast submerging with only the USA managing to strengthen its currency and position.

Brics are effectively defunct with India growing at 7.7% last year and growth in India is capital based, not overly dependent on manufacturing or exports.

Citicorp said the other day CCP grew 4% at best this year. Others such as Lombard Street Research in London say between 2% to 4% because nothing is clear as to which. Daiwa Securities a few months ago projected a 20% loss off GDP by 2020. Currency speculators are moving against the yuan which is traded offshore in Hong Kong.

The gap between the mainland yuan and the yuan in Hong Kong which is traded offshore remains wide. If CCP is going to run a two-tier currency system as it has been doing all along, it's going to have to keep the two tiers tightly parallel, not divergent. Yuan in HKG is even more depreciated than the onshore yuan, which is why currency speculators are moving in on it. CCP loses control of its monopoly money currency and it is game over then and there.

CCP's personal central bank, the People's Bank of China, has already expended one-sixth of its forex reserves to protect the yuan against continuing export declines and swelling capital outflows, yet now it has to throw more of its forex reserves into the markets to fight speculators. Defending the yuan against speculators requires taking it temporarily out of circulation (by raising rates up to 200% as CCP did a week ago). This however creates a yuan black hole.

"People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe."

Publicus, I suggest you stop living in your fantasy world, where you love to be a Washington cheerleader, going on and on about the collapse of the Chinese economy !!

Look, let's have evidence as to what is happening. In your fantasy world, China is heading for bankruptcy. Now, let's look at the real world. Traffic jams in Pattaya are simply not becoming less and less. The number of Chinese tourists coming to Thailand is not actually falling in a major way. The reason why the number is not falling is because they've still got enough money to turn up in Thailand. Hence, traffic jams caused by busses and coaches of Chinese tourists are still there.

Okay, Americans living in America will notice that there are still a load of Chinese goods in WalMart, that is simply not changing. As long as WalMart's import bill from China is billions of dollars per quarter, well, that means China is staying afloat, with a load of Chinese being able to afford a foreign holiday.

All that talk of the Chinese stock market crashing ? The index rose massively during the year prior to the crash last year, yes, we're seeing a correction.

Oh look, an American bank reckons that China's economy grew 4% in 2015. And how much did Taiwan's economy grow by ? What about Japan ? What about South Africa ? What about the European Union ? What about Britain ?

I'd love to see Britain have economic growth of 4% per year. I'd call that an economic boom, I'd call Britain the 'European Lion' if it was to happen !

Publicus, you come here and cheer on the collapse of the Chinese economy. How about you look at Washington's puppet, Saudi Arabia. The world oil price is now at about 27 USD a barrel. Washington's puppet is heading for bankruptcy, but who on ThaiVisa wants to cheer this on ? Also, America's neighbour, Canada, Canada looking into the abyss is a far more realistic thing than China looking at economic problems. Yes, the collapse in oil prices will harm Canada's economy, Canadian heavy oil sells for less than West Texas Intermediate. But who in their right mind would want to cheer on Canada's collapsing economy ?? Why do it ??

It's wise in the post to finally move away from using travel and tourism to try to judge the CCP economy. Throwing Saudi Arabia and Canada into the mix does not mix so it would be best to leave that behind too.

All that talk of the Chinese stock market crashing ? The index rose massively during the year prior to the crash last year, yes, we're seeing a correction.

We're seeing the disappearance of a stock market. The rising index had been artificial, a fraud. The result has been a CCP stock market loss equivalent to the GDP of Germany. CCP has shown it can't run even an artificial stock market.

You have completely missed the salient point global markets have begun to realise the CCP Boys in Beijing are no longer in charge of their economy and its financial system. If the Boyz ever had been in charge.

CCP have built an unsustainable economic centrally planned paradigm. It is moreover disjointed and beyond the control of anyone. As US investor Jim Chanos pointed out years ago, "Chinese banks are built on quicksand." So is the whole of its economy which needs a fundamental and pervasive reform and new foundation but isn't getting any of it, so the whole edifice is sinking instead.

Currency speculators are homing in on the offshore yuan which is more depreciated than the mainland yuan. It is obvious no CCP fanboy posting here has a clue.

Publicus, can you stop claiming that people have no clue ! YOU are dodging the main issue.

Like I said, as long as WalMart's import bill from China runs into billions of dollars per quarter, well, that means there will be no major collapse in the Chinese economy. Yes, WalMart is what drives the Chinese economy. Yes, China's economy is built on the export of cheap goods to America and the EU (and Japan), we all know that.

China has seen growth at about 7 or 8% per year during 2008 to 2014. The USA has not seen this growth, and parts of the EU have seen zero growth between 2008 and today. Yes, seven years of almost zero growth. If China sees growth of 2% per year for 2016 and 2017, well, that's still a better performance than most other countries during the world-wide recession since 2008.

I predict China will see 4% growth in 2016 and 2017, and 6% by 2018.

America and the EU are slowly heading back into economic growth, they will import more goods from China, hence, China's exports will rise and prevent any economic crash. Whatever recession China goes through, it will not be as painful as America's pain during the Great Crash caused by the 'credit crunch' of 2008.

And world oil prices falling to what they are now, this benefits China, bearing in mind China needs to import oil to drive the economy. Correct,oil is falling due to decreased Chinese importing of oil, but it's main reasons for falling are not actually China. American shale is what's causing the slump in prices, with Saudi Arabia producing a vast amount for the world market. Personally, I think Washington has ordered Saudi Arabia to pump out loads, in order to lower the price and hurt Russia, but that's another story.

[Publicus]

The reality is while the Chinese economy may be heading for a correction , the Chinese have in their practices always been saving for a rainy day

So even with a market correction , it does not stop the middle class tourists from flying into Neighbouring countries for a short holiday

The value continues to stay very strong in Thailand to attract that so does Singapore and Cambodia etc

Hong Kong has soured because they have reacted badly and deserving so now they are getting the cold shoulders so while I have empathy for those who work in the hospitality and related business I am Glad the Chinese as a group is maturing as a consumer group and no longer tolerate crap given to them

For every misbehaving crazy scooter Chinese that spits and has bad habits there are 7-10 well behaved ones with money to spend ....it would be dumb for any country to ignore that

For every misbehaving crazy scooter Chinese that spits and has bad habits there are 7-10 well behaved ones with money to spend

Even the failing CCP economy will still have a base of 300 million or so CCP Chinese with money. It's just that the 300 or so million (perhaps 350m) will have to build a new Great Wall around themselves to protect against the billion other Chinese looking in from the outside of the CCP brand of consciously selective (and relative to the West) prosperity.

This poster does not spend time on the everyday social or cultural behavioral habits of the newly CCP prosperous tourists. This is true whether the CCP Chinese tourists are in Thailand or in any advanced or developing-economy host country anywhere. After all, almost any tourist from anywhere can be criticised locally at any time for any number of reasons real or imagined.

It is significant to note however the larger picture in these behaviors that others do harp on consistently and deservedly.

The behaviors offend many because the highly globalised and more prosperous world has in fact created a new standard and norm of social and cultural interaction. That is, the more civil we are toward persons of other nationalities, skin color, cultural background etc, and the more "forgiving" each of us is toward the foreign other, the better off everyone is in the globalised society.

The point is that the CCP Chinese are not globally socialised or aculturated. Nor have they ever been. The civilisation is a continental one that has never gone beyond the confines of a small territorial empire that has swallowed other and adjacent cultures, societies, civilisations. Han civilisation continues to be Han civilisation only and CCP censors keep it that way in the contemporary times of IT.

CCP Chinese tourists and corporate CCP cadre in their exploitative business abroad have money but little else to commend themselves in the contemporary globalised world.

[Publicus]

People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe.

The topic is the fact the CCP economy is in a sharp decline bordering at a precipice looking into the abyss. Once emerging markets driven by the CCP China are fast submerging with only the USA managing to strengthen its currency and position.

Brics are effectively defunct with India growing at 7.7% last year and growth in India is capital based, not overly dependent on manufacturing or exports.

Citicorp said the other day CCP grew 4% at best this year. Others such as Lombard Street Research in London say between 2% to 4% because nothing is clear as to which. Daiwa Securities a few months ago projected a 20% loss off GDP by 2020. Currency speculators are moving against the yuan which is traded offshore in Hong Kong.

The gap between the mainland yuan and the yuan in Hong Kong which is traded offshore remains wide. If CCP is going to run a two-tier currency system as it has been doing all along, it's going to have to keep the two tiers tightly parallel, not divergent. Yuan in HKG is even more depreciated than the onshore yuan, which is why currency speculators are moving in on it. CCP loses control of its monopoly money currency and it is game over then and there.

CCP's personal central bank, the People's Bank of China, has already expended one-sixth of its forex reserves to protect the yuan against continuing export declines and swelling capital outflows, yet now it has to throw more of its forex reserves into the markets to fight speculators. Defending the yuan against speculators requires taking it temporarily out of circulation (by raising rates up to 200% as CCP did a week ago). This however creates a yuan black hole.

"People who evaluate and analyse the CCP economy based on Chinese tourists to Thailand might do better by paying spirits in a cave to explain to them the mysteries of life and death and the secrets of the universe."

Publicus, I suggest you stop living in your fantasy world, where you love to be a Washington cheerleader, going on and on about the collapse of the Chinese economy !!

Look, let's have evidence as to what is happening. In your fantasy world, China is heading for bankruptcy. Now, let's look at the real world. Traffic jams in Pattaya are simply not becoming less and less. The number of Chinese tourists coming to Thailand is not actually falling in a major way. The reason why the number is not falling is because they've still got enough money to turn up in Thailand. Hence, traffic jams caused by busses and coaches of Chinese tourists are still there.

Okay, Americans living in America will notice that there are still a load of Chinese goods in WalMart, that is simply not changing. As long as WalMart's import bill from China is billions of dollars per quarter, well, that means China is staying afloat, with a load of Chinese being able to afford a foreign holiday.

All that talk of the Chinese stock market crashing ? The index rose massively during the year prior to the crash last year, yes, we're seeing a correction.

Oh look, an American bank reckons that China's economy grew 4% in 2015. And how much did Taiwan's economy grow by ? What about Japan ? What about South Africa ? What about the European Union ? What about Britain ?

I'd love to see Britain have economic growth of 4% per year. I'd call that an economic boom, I'd call Britain the 'European Lion' if it was to happen !

Publicus, you come here and cheer on the collapse of the Chinese economy. How about you look at Washington's puppet, Saudi Arabia. The world oil price is now at about 27 USD a barrel. Washington's puppet is heading for bankruptcy, but who on ThaiVisa wants to cheer this on ? Also, America's neighbour, Canada, Canada looking into the abyss is a far more realistic thing than China looking at economic problems. Yes, the collapse in oil prices will harm Canada's economy, Canadian heavy oil sells for less than West Texas Intermediate. But who in their right mind would want to cheer on Canada's collapsing economy ?? Why do it ??

It's wise in the post to finally move away from using travel and tourism to try to judge the CCP economy. Throwing Saudi Arabia and Canada into the mix does not mix so it would be best to leave that behind too.

All that talk of the Chinese stock market crashing ? The index rose massively during the year prior to the crash last year, yes, we're seeing a correction.

We're seeing the disappearance of a stock market. The rising index had been artificial, a fraud. The result has been a CCP stock market loss equivalent to the GDP of Germany. CCP has shown it can't run even an artificial stock market.

You have completely missed the salient point global markets have begun to realise the CCP Boys in Beijing are no longer in charge of their economy and its financial system. If the Boyz ever had been in charge.

CCP have built an unsustainable economic centrally planned paradigm. It is moreover disjointed and beyond the control of anyone. As US investor Jim Chanos pointed out years ago, "Chinese banks are built on quicksand." So is the whole of its economy which needs a fundamental and pervasive reform and new foundation but isn't getting any of it, so the whole edifice is sinking instead.

Currency speculators are homing in on the offshore yuan which is more depreciated than the mainland yuan. It is obvious no CCP fanboy posting here has a clue.

Publicus, can you stop claiming that people have no clue ! YOU are dodging the main issue.

Like I said, as long as WalMart's import bill from China runs into billions of dollars per quarter, well, that means there will be no major collapse in the Chinese economy. Yes, WalMart is what drives the Chinese economy. Yes, China's economy is built on the export of cheap goods to America and the EU (and Japan), we all know that.

China has seen growth at about 7 or 8% per year during 2008 to 2014. The USA has not seen this growth, and parts of the EU have seen zero growth between 2008 and today. Yes, seven years of almost zero growth. If China sees growth of 2% per year for 2016 and 2017, well, that's still a better performance than most other countries during the world-wide recession since 2008.

I predict China will see 4% growth in 2016 and 2017, and 6% by 2018.

America and the EU are slowly heading back into economic growth, they will import more goods from China, hence, China's exports will rise and prevent any economic crash. Whatever recession China goes through, it will not be as painful as America's pain during the Great Crash caused by the 'credit crunch' of 2008.

And world oil prices falling to what they are now, this benefits China, bearing in mind China needs to import oil to drive the economy. Correct,oil is falling due to decreased Chinese importing of oil, but it's main reasons for falling are not actually China. American shale is what's causing the slump in prices, with Saudi Arabia producing a vast amount for the world market. Personally, I think Washington has ordered Saudi Arabia to pump out loads, in order to lower the price and hurt Russia, but that's another story.

If China sees growth of 2% per year for 2016 and 2017, well, that's still a better performance than most other countries during the world-wide recession since 2008.

I predict China will see 4% growth in 2016 and 2017, and 6% by 2018.

Thank you Adam Smithereens.

Like I said, as long as WalMart's import bill from China runs into billions of dollars per quarter, well, that means there will be no major collapse in the Chinese economy. Yes, WalMart is what drives the Chinese economy. Yes

A microeconomic expert if I'd ever seen one. From the GDP compenent of travel and tourism to one corporation, Walmart, determining the fate of the CCP China economy and nation. From micros to the macro in one fell swoop.

And world oil prices falling to what they are now, this benefits China, bearing in mind China needs to import oil to drive the economy.

Bearing in mind, yes....

So ....what do you predict about the yuan and currency speculators moving against the yuan that is traded globally in Hong Kong. (HKG dollar is going to have to depreciate too, so your genius is required on this sooner or later also .)

The HKY (yuan traded offshore from Hong Kong) is worse than the CNY (yuan used on the mainland). This is the green flag that has caused global currency speculators to begin to make their anticipated major move against it. HKY yesterday was at 6.6023 whereas the mainland yuan (CHY) was at 6.5792.

What's made the currency speculators move now is that the CCP and its personal central bank, the People's Bank of China, had always said their red line was 6.5. The yuan in HKG has however broken through the so-called bamboo ceiling in its routine market oriented offshore trading. Which means CCP can no longer stand by its iron law on the currency rate versus usd.

Yes, the yuan traded offshore in HKG is far more free floated and way more market active than is the tightly controlled mainland yuan. Which is why it is cheaper in offshore transactions, and which is why it is more burdensome to the CCP.

So CCP has since the major 2005 appreciation maintained it cannot allow the mainland yuan to exceed 6.5. Yet CCP holding the 6.5 line on the mainland rate would mean no more CCP suddenly induced depreciation which began in August. And that would mean keeping the bamboo ceiling on the yuan fixed the unrealistic rate 6.5. Unrealistic because a yuan fixed at 6.5 would crash sooner rather than later. (Remember Thailand, 1996-1997?)

However, if the mainland yuan also exceeds 6.5999etc it too will come under speculator attack. Either way, the CCP's monopoly money is looking at going bust.

Your precious thoughts plse thx.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Publicus

[LawrenceChee]

I've have been crossing swords with a poster on the impending collapse of China for probably about 2 years now on every post topic it was doom and gloom and all these stats to tell us it's almost hereeeeeee watch the spectacular collapse of the CCP

Still waiting for the collapse ....so far China has been making good corrections and continuing to make policies beneficial for the Long term growth

They will make some small errors along the way but a collapse is far fetch

Greece was ridiculous to bail out and had nothing much to offer and yet the EU continue to bail them out

You think anyone besides the Chinese bashers would let China collapse and face the brunt of that effect ?

Politicians are smarter than that

[Publicus]

I've posted several times the US will come to China's assistance, as will the IMF, World Bank, OECD, EU and the G-7 especially.

CCP will have no choice but to make things radically different, improved, better, in adopting new systems and in learning how they work.

A major strategic adjustment is in the making in CCP China as many major global institutions of government and finance have analysed, assessed, projected. This is not some personal cause of one to try to create or prove. It is a global consensus.

The powerful and domineering CCP can delay, obfuscate, extend, but it cannot avoid what is inherently inevitable because of the fundamentally flawed system and its wrongheaded paradigms.

Regardless of whether the failure is a slow drawn out an agonizing one, as is occurring, or a sudden collapse as with the Russian Soviet Union, the whole of the CCP thing is a contraption, not a viable economy or a valid and modern political system. It is in fact a combination of 19th century Marxism meshed with 20th century Leninism and Maoism grafted and modified by Deng to 5000 years of unmistakably Chinese characteristics. That is, dictatorship, autocracy, oligarchy, oppression and repression; censorship.

2015 was in fact the turning point, which was a bit sooner than most critics had expected or anticipated. CCP Boyz in Beijing exposed themselves during the past year as no longer in charge or command of their Rube Goldberg* political economy.

Anyone is welcome to try to prove otherwise. No one has as no one can prove any different. The currency is unraveling while speculators have begun to circle en masse. Such things never end well.

* http://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/rubegoldberg/index.html