Thailand looking shaky

[hugocnx]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

Sorry to burst your balloon, but it is not the Thai government that has anything to do with this. It is the world banking agenda that's been fooling us for years.

Get your cash from the banks while you still can. Money is just not backed and once the shit hits the fan, the banks have no money to pay their 'clients', read victims.

[Thian]

I wonder what the problem is?

The problem is that the word "quality" is not yet in Thailand. High prices without quality won't last long. They even don't have cars with indicators to name something.

[hugocnx]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

You'd better take of your pink glasses

[hugocnx]

Indonesia went through same financial crisis in 97 as Thailand did, yet they are cited as having democracy now. Hmm I wonder how they did it?

"The people of Thailand dont currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire...." Aspiring is one thing, work is altogether a different matter.

There is no REAL democracy in no country these days. Fool (not you) to think that free elections are democracy.

The EU board is not elected by the crowd, no, they are appointed. Look at America; would one call that a democracy 2day?

[MaeJoMTB]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It's not freely traded on the foreign currency markets.

Controlled by the Thai government and banks.

PS

My wife was dancing around the bedroom shouting happily this morning.

Thai social media has announced the return of Thaksin sometime this year.

She's looking forward to everything being sorted out.

Edited February 1, 2016 by MaeJoMTB

[Thian]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

Seems to me that the yuppie population ( designer jeans with rips) have more money than ever. Note the number of new cars on the road especially high end, BMW, Merc's, 4WD suped up speed demons, Harley D's. How do they do it if not on higher incomes than a few (short) years ago.?

Credit.

Or they made much money with the rice last years....all those billions went somewhere....they didn't go up in smoke.

[hugocnx]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

Seems to me that the yuppie population ( designer jeans with rips) have more money than ever. Note the number of new cars on the road especially high end, BMW, Merc's, 4WD suped up speed demons, Harley D's. How do they do it if not on higher incomes than a few (short) years ago.?

Credit.

Drugs? Mafia? HiSo's. Not a single simple Thai labourer can afford this, not even the middle class me thinks.

Edited February 1, 2016 by hugocnx

[elgordo38]

I wouldn't call it shaky. More like wobbly, on a tightrope, over a gorge.

I know or 2 people that left for South Korea to work.

[elgordo38]

How come the baht holds up so well?

Yes and the SET is holding its own as well.

[elgordo38]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

To keep the baht high they would need to sell foreign reserves and buy bahts. Correct?

[connda]

Why has the THB/GOLD ratio been rock solid?

[TheCruncher]

But like many in Asia it was hit hard by the crisis of the late 1990s

Wake up boy, many in Asia were hit hard by a crisis that was ignited in Thailand.

[MJP]

Thailand's real problem is and continues to be the collapsing birth rate. In the 60's the birth rate was around 6 children per woman and has since continued to decline below the replacement rate of 2.1-2.2 to a birth rate of 1.4, similar to many developed countries. You cannot maintain an ever growing debt bubble without an ever growing people bubble.

https://www.google.co.uk/#q=thailand+birth+rate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate

This could be one of the reasons foreign direct investment has seen a 78% drop over the past year.

Thailand's also in a crazy debt bubble like so many other countries and it's not immune from the effects of a sudden debt deflation.

When I see Ferrari's and Lamborghini's for sale in Roi-Et I take this as a sign of debt bubblishousness.

[Wilsonandson]

With the New Year comes promises of good times to come and warnings of bad times to come. Who should you look to for advice? Not the media, they just want to sell newspapers or advertizing.

[trogers]

With the New Year comes promises of good times to come and warnings of bad times to come. Who should you look to for advice? Not the media, they just want to sell newspapers or advertizing.

Ask one who got a new job and you get good times. Ask another who lost a job, and it is bad times.

So we know WHO the jobless posters are in TV...?

[MaeJoMTB]

With the New Year comes promises of good times to come and warnings of bad times to come. Who should you look to for advice? Not the media, they just want to sell newspapers or advertizing.

Ask one who got a new job and you get good times. Ask another who lost a job, and it is bad times.

So we know WHO the jobless posters are in TV...?

I though most of us were retired ...... which makes us jobless but not income-less.

[Wilsonandson]

With the New Year comes promises of good times to come and warnings of bad times to come. Who should you look to for advice? Not the media, they just want to sell newspapers or advertizing.

Ask one who got a new job and you get good times. Ask another who lost a job, and it is bad times.

So we know WHO the jobless posters are in TV...

Being unemployed isn't a laughing matter. To those who go through it every day teaching in Thailand, God bless you. Over worked, under paid, constant job security pressure, battling to stay sane and not become a nervous wreck. Good luck to you. It ain't easy. To those retired, good luck to you. To those who are new, keep your options open. 2016 is another year, but as each year passes the good old days fade to black.

[Jonmarleesco]

How come the baht holds up so well?

Given the multitude of maladies that have beset the country over recent years (political dramas, coups, tourist-related problems, the economy, flooding, drought, the southern restiveness, etc.) that would have derailed the currency of many other countries, including developed nations, that's a fair question, and one for the BoT to answer.

[MaeJoMTB]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

To keep the baht high they would need to sell foreign reserves and buy bahts. Correct?

No, because it isn't freely traded on the open market.

[Suradit69]

Its not easy becoming a rich country or a democracy.

If a country becomes rich, democracy only works for the upper few percent on the rich scale.

In the US if you want to run for office it helps if you're a multimillionaire or billionaire and your campaign is financed by other multimillionaires so that when you get elected you'll look after the multimillionaires you were elected to serve.

[Jonmarleesco]

Why has the THB/GOLD ratio been rock solid?

It has? YoY, the baht is down around 10% against the dollar, gold is down around 15%.

[Tonawatchee]

"The people of Thailand don’t currently enjoy the high incomes or political freedoms to which they aspire — and the future prospects are not good for either."

be careful what you wish for, Thailand.

resist all outside influences with your last breath.

real police, traffic laws enforced, traffic tickets, speed traps, computer criminal record database, driving record for insurance companies, soaring auto insurance costs, wear your helmet, seat belt, pass a real driving test, maintain your vehicle, must be 18 to ride a scooter, CCTV cameras that work, watching everywhere you go, emission controls, parking tickets, parking meters, paying taxes for all income, tax audits, property tax, rice tax, fishing tax, fishing license to fish from a bridge, permits for everything you do, no burning fields, catalytic converters on all restaurants, no food carts, no street vendors, business licenses, health inspectors, food inspectors, liability law suits, public safety restrictions, real fire departments, fire safety inspections, building codes, electrical codes, strict zoning laws, unions, soaring health care costs, the UN, global warming , draconian environmental laws, planting rice bad for the environment, rice causes diabetes, "proper" education, "freedom of speech", demonetization and destruction of your culture, English, IMF, new immigration laws for diversification, farangs elected to public office, farangs owning land, business and banks, farangs in the police, military and government, rule of law, no drinking in public, no urinating in public, no smoking, no parking, no loitering, beach closed after dark, no fireworks, no guns, no littering, no drinking or fires on the beaches, no food sold on beaches, trash containers, police helicopters over head 24/7, intellectual property rights, human rights, animal rights, no death camps, no slaves...

and of course no gogo's and no bargirls.

in other words, welcome to California.

Erraagh!!! Oh....thank you.....you just woke me up from a bad dream. Ah, it is so good to see the junta again.

[erobando]

Thailand's problem is that there are a number of small elite groups that constantly fight for power.

Then non-elites who potentially could force changes to the system just cheer for (or even fight for!) one side or another like they're at football match, with little emphasis on actual policy.

At one time I thought things might change once the older generation fades away and younger people ran things but now I'm not so sure... actually, I'm not even sure that the older generation will even fade away as they seem to be eternal.

[ggt]

I reserve the right to not report honestly on this subject...as punishment is sure to follow...

[mrrizzla]

Thailand's problem is that there are a number of small elite groups that constantly fight for power.

Then non-elites who potentially could force changes to the system just cheer for (or even fight for!) one side or another like they're at football match, with little emphasis on actual policy.

At one time I thought things might change once the older generation fades away and younger people ran things but now I'm not so sure... actually, I'm not even sure that the older generation will even fade away as they seem to be eternal.

Bingo.

Thaksin was an anomaly in the fact that he riled all of these traditional elites against him. They (mostly) united against a common enemy.

They will be at each other again, then there is the event to think about.

Interesting (and scary) times a head.

[Farang99]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

50 years ago it was indeed fixed at 25=$ 40=£. Since then it has been at the mercy of market forces and government whims.

[trogers]

I wouldn't call it shaky. More like wobbly, on a tightrope, over a gorge.

I know or 2 people that left for South Korea to work.

They were working at Nana before leaving? Farangland no more money...

[trogers]

Why has the THB/GOLD ratio been rock solid?

It has? YoY, the baht is down around 10% against the dollar, gold is down around 15%.

Looks like the Baht is better than gold...

[trogers]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

50 years ago it was indeed fixed at 25=$ 40=£. Since then it has been at the mercy of market forces and government whims.

Try 20 years ago.

[trogers]

Thailand's real problem is and continues to be the collapsing birth rate. In the 60's the birth rate was around 6 children per woman and has since continued to decline below the replacement rate of 2.1-2.2 to a birth rate of 1.4, similar to many developed countries. You cannot maintain an ever growing debt bubble without an ever growing people bubble.

https://www.google.co.uk/#q=thailand+birth+rate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate

This could be one of the reasons foreign direct investment has seen a 78% drop over the past year.

Thailand's also in a crazy debt bubble like so many other countries and it's not immune from the effects of a sudden debt deflation.

When I see Ferrari's and Lamborghini's for sale in Roi-Et I take this as a sign of debt bubblishousness.

FDI left due to the last increase in min wage. No more cheap labour. Ferrari and Lamborghini could not be kept because there is no more money flowing in from the rice scam.