Russia presses air blitz in Syria to dictate peace terms

[webfact]

Russia presses air blitz in Syria to dictate peace terms
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

MOSCOW (AP) — Moscow joined the fight in Syria to return to relevance in international diplomacy. It has succeeded by anyone's measure — and Russia hopes to use its air power to dictate the terms of a cease-fire and prospective peace talks.

Russian warplanes have helped the Syrian army make broad advances and close in on the country's biggest city, Aleppo. Meanwhile, the Western-backed opposition is fractured and weakened.

So as talk turns to a cease-fire, Syrian President Bashar Assad, Moscow's sole ally in the region, is in a stronger position than he has been in years.

What's more, Russia has cast itself as an indispensable global player that holds the key to the settlement of a nearly five-year conflict that has flooded Europe with refugees. And the United States can't hope to push forward its agenda of ending the war without overtures to Russia.

Not that there aren't challenges ahead for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other regional players that have backed Assad's foes are loath to see the Syrian ruler strengthen his grip on power. They have been mulling the deployment of ground troops to Syria, which could trigger broader hostilities and raise the threat of confrontation between their forces and the Russian military.

For its part, the U.S. sees Assad as the chief obstacle to peace and has been reluctant to engage in any military-to-military dialogue with Russia.

Still, Putin appears eager to raise the stakes, hoping that Assad's siege of Aleppo will further strengthen Russia's hand.

The impact of Moscow's air strikes appears particularly significant given the modest size of the Russian force — just a few dozen jets. But they have operated at a frenetic pace, each flying several sorties a day for a total of more than 6,000 combat missions in 4½ months.

The campaign, Russia's first military operation outside the former Soviet Union since the 1991 Soviet collapse, has demonstrated the new capability of the nation's resurgent military and allowed Russia to test its latest weapons in combat for the first time.

In one example, the military tested its new long-range cruise missiles, firing them from all possible launch platforms — strategic bombers, surface warships in the Caspian Sea and a submarine near Syria.

Moscow has denied any intention to open more air bases in Syria in addition to the Hemeimeem air base in Syria's coastal province of Latakia, the well-protected heartland of Assad's Alawite sect. The Russian military says it makes little sense to allocate extra assets since it takes just 15 minutes for Russian warplanes from Hemeimeem to reach any area in Syria.

Russia has deployed an unidentified number of advisers to train Syrian troops to use Russian weapons and help coordinate air attacks, but Putin has firmly ruled out ground action.

By operating from Hemeimeem, which lies deep inside government-controlled territory, Moscow has minimized the risk of casualties from militant incursions. So far, the Russian military has lost three men in Syria: a pilot killed when his warplane was downed by a Turkish jet in November, a marine who died on a mission to rescue that pilot's crewmate, and a Russian military adviser who died in mortar shelling at the front line.

By limiting its presence in Syria, the Kremlin has been able to keep spending on its military action to an estimated $2 million to $4 million a day, an amount easily sustainable even for the crisis-stricken Russian economy. At such costs, the Kremlin could maintain its air campaign indefinitely.

There is no such reservoir of patience among America's European allies, who struggle to cope with the continuing influx of refugees from the conflict.

Russia began its air campaign on Sept. 30, nearly five years after the war began, and the impact soon became visible as Assad's military launched a multi-pronged offensive. The main Syrian army efforts are now focusing on Aleppo, Syria's largest city and commercial capital, which has been split between the government and its opponents since 2012.

In recent weeks, Assad's troops backed by Hezbollah and Iranian forces have methodically cut supply lines, forcing more than 50,000 civilians to flee to the nearby Turkish border. Russian warplanes flying up to 70 sorties a day have maintained constant pressure on the anti-government forces, striking their strongholds and depots and chasing their convoys.

There are risks to the strategy, as can be seen in Russian-Turkish tensions after NATO member Turkey shot down the Russian jet. And in the crowded skies over Syria, U.S. officials say Russian pilots often perform risky maneuvers, flying extremely close to the U.S. warplanes.

Moscow and Washington have agreed to exchange information about air operations over Syria to prevent incidents, but Russia has pushed for broader coordination. Putin apparently hopes that engaging the U.S. in military-to-military cooperation in Syria could help ease the strain in relations and also cast Moscow as a power equaling the U.S.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last week that close coordination between U.S. and Russian military experts would be essential for securing a cease-fire. But Russia also vows to press its air assault against extremist groups, making clear that Moscow is in no rush to stop fighting.

Putin appears ready to gamble that things will keep going his way.


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-02-16

[Ulic]

The same as Nixon I guess. "Bomb them back to the negotiation table."

[craigt3365]

The same as Nixon I guess. "Bomb them back to the negotiation table."

A bit different. But understand the comparison. Either way, it's not good.

[Krataiboy]

The "Western-backed opposition" in Syria is depicted in the media as a bunch of good guys. This is far from the case. The so-called Free Syrian Army, created, funded and trained with US support, is a mongrel mix of Islamic militants as well as moderates.

One of its original leaders was Abu bakr al-Baghdadi, a former inmate of the US-run Camp Bucca prison in southern Iraq - the equivalent of Abu Ghraib. . He and his followers, snapped having "secret" talks with US Senator and former Presidential candidate John McCain, broke away to form his own opposition group called ISIL As we all know to our cost, ISIL subsequently morphed into IS (or Daesh) with Al Baghdadi as self-styled emperor of the new Islamic caliphate.

The US, which has a long history of using manufactured or existing insurgent groups to do its dirty work, were hoping that this nest of vipers created as a replacement for the virtually defunct and discredited CIA rent-a-mob Al Qaeda would oust the Assad dynasty - just as Osama Bin Laden's fundamentalist fighters had driven the Russians from Afghanistan in the Seventies.

Their plan, enthusiastically backed by the Saudis and other US client states in the region, which relished the opportunity to impose their medieval brand of Islam on more than a billion Shias and other non-believers, seemed to be working. Bolstered by big money from the oil sheiks and the sale of stolen oil to NATO "ally" Turkey, the Humvee-driving brigades of black-flag waving, head-lopping IS brigands seemed unstoppable.

Amazingly, a months-long campaign thousands of air strikes by the US and her allies, using the most sophisticated modern weaponry available, failed to halt or even slow Daesh's bloody progress. It seemed only a matter of time before Assad would be forced to concede.

Had he done so, the US and its allies would have won and, with no viable alternative Syrian leadership waiting in the wings, everyone else - not least the battered Syrian civilian population - would have lost. Syria, rudderless and ripe for exploitation by unscrupulous political and commercial interests, would almost certainly follow Iraq and Libya into the all-too-familiar death spiral of infighting, mass murder, mayhem and corruption.

Whatever Putin's motives in supporting the only stable government Syria has had - geopolitical, strategic, economic or just a bid to burnish his international image - he has at least forced the US and its allies to rethink their disastrous strategy of playing both ends against the middle and provided an opportunity for peace talks to begin again, hopefully in earnest this time. .

If you believe the tame Western mass media, owned and run by the influential corporate giants which control the White House and Wall Street, only Russian bombs kill civilians - in which case, you probably also believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary - just as there is to confirm that IS did not spring inexplicably out of nowhere, but from the same Frankenstein laboratory in Arlington, Virginia, which created Al Qaeda..

All the combatants in this protracted and devastating proxy war where terrorists use women and children as human shields are guilty of killing civilians, but it is Russia's relatively brief bombing campaign which has sent the jihadists running for their lives and Kerry hastily shuffling back to the negotiating table.

There is too much at stake for peace talks to be squandered - as they were last November by the Turks' ill-timed and suspect downing of a Russian warplane. Not just Syria and the Gulf deserve a break from war. For a European Union facing the possibility of imminent disintegration over immigration issues, a Spring sunami of new refugees could be the last straw.

Edited February 16, 2016 by Krataiboy

[Presto]

What Putin and Assad will do to Aleppo will be no different from what happened to Grozny in 99.

'Persons who stay in the city will be considered terrorists and bandits and will be destroyed by artillery and aviation. There will be no further negotiations.[14]'

[heina]

Syria under "Dictator" Assad regime vs "Democratic" moderate rebels. Before and After.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/26/syria-heritage-in-ruins-before-and-after-pictures

[Chicog]

Syria under "Dictator" Assad regime vs "Democratic" moderate rebels. Before and After.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/26/syria-heritage-in-ruins-before-and-after-pictures

Why don't you post some pictures of Dera'a from the time before the rebels organised?

You know, the ones with tortured kids, and civilians executed by the military?

And the damage from the barrel bombs?

Is it by any chance that you wish to try and portray Assad as the good guy in this fight?

[craigt3365]

Syria under "Dictator" Assad regime vs "Democratic" moderate rebels. Before and After.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/26/syria-heritage-in-ruins-before-and-after-pictures

When has anybody referred to any of the rebel groups as democratic? LOL

Syria is still run by the dictator Assad. It's his fault this happened. Nobody else.

[arjunadawn]

Its long been wisdom that standing armies are a very bad thing. Besides the obvious conflict, posturing armies at the ready in the surrounding region to enhance the outcome of talks is a dangerous gamble (War games, FOBs, carrier groups, etc). It is always the case that idle armies/airforces are like itchy trigger fingers.

Krataiboy- brilliant post! Thanks.

[craigt3365]

The "Western-backed opposition" in Syria is depicted in the media as a bunch of good guys. This is far from the case. The so-called Free Syrian Army, created, funded and trained with US support, is a mongrel mix of Islamic militants as well as moderates.

One of its original leaders was Abu bakr al-Baghdadi, a former inmate of the US-run Camp Bucca prison in southern Iraq - the equivalent of Abu Ghraib. . He and his followers, snapped having "secret" talks with US Senator and former Presidential candidate John McCain, broke away to form his own opposition group called ISIL As we all know to our cost, ISIL subsequently morphed into IS (or Daesh) with Al Baghdadi as self-styled emperor of the new Islamic caliphate.

The US, which has a long history of using manufactured or existing insurgent groups to do its dirty work, were hoping that this nest of vipers created as a replacement for the virtually defunct and discredited CIA rent-a-mob Al Qaeda would oust the Assad dynasty - just as Osama Bin Laden's fundamentalist fighters had driven the Russians from Afghanistan in the Seventies.

Their plan, enthusiastically backed by the Saudis and other US client states in the region, which relished the opportunity to impose their medieval brand of Islam on more than a billion Shias and other non-believers, seemed to be working. Bolstered by big money from the oil sheiks and the sale of stolen oil to NATO "ally" Turkey, the Humvee-driving brigades of black-flag waving, head-lopping IS brigands seemed unstoppable.

Amazingly, a months-long campaign thousands of air strikes by the US and her allies, using the most sophisticated modern weaponry available, failed to halt or even slow Daesh's bloody progress. It seemed only a matter of time before Assad would be forced to concede.

Had he done so, the US and its allies would have won and, with no viable alternative Syrian leadership waiting in the wings, everyone else - not least the battered Syrian civilian population - would have lost. Syria, rudderless and ripe for exploitation by unscrupulous political and commercial interests, would almost certainly follow Iraq and Libya into the all-too-familiar death spiral of infighting, mass murder, mayhem and corruption.

Whatever Putin's motives in supporting the only stable government Syria has had - geopolitical, strategic, economic or just a bid to burnish his international image - he has at least forced the US and its allies to rethink their disastrous strategy of playing both ends against the middle and provided an opportunity for peace talks to begin again, hopefully in earnest this time. .

If you believe the tame Western mass media, owned and run by the influential corporate giants which control the White House and Wall Street, only Russian bombs kill civilians - in which case, you probably also believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary - just as there is to confirm that IS did not spring inexplicably out of nowhere, but from the same Frankenstein laboratory in Arlington, Virginia, which created Al Qaeda..

All the combatants in this protracted and devastating proxy war where terrorists use women and children as human shields are guilty of killing civilians, but it is Russia's relatively brief bombing campaign which has sent the jihadists running for their lives and Kerry hastily shuffling back to the negotiating table.

There is too much at stake for peace talks to be squandered - as they were last November by the Turks' ill-timed and suspect downing of a Russian warplane. Not just Syria and the Gulf deserve a break from war. For a European Union facing the possibility of imminent disintegration over immigration issues, a Spring sunami of new refugees could be the last straw.

From what I've read in the "Western" media, is a few of the rebel groups are not as bad as the others. And at least they are fighting ISIS. You'll have to post links to (credible) articles that state one rebel group consists of good guys.

Many nations have used insurgent groups for their own benefit. Syria has done so. Russia is doing this now with the Taliban. Sad fact of life.

You are saying Saudia Arabia is a US client state? Really? LOL

The current government in Syria is far from stable. The past 4 years has proven that. No debating that fact.

Continued references to Western media as being all run the US and wall street gets old. And is not true. I know many that would beg to differ with you.

Peace talks can only begin when the bombing stops. A journey of a thousand steps begins with one.