Migrants: what could scupper the EU's talks with Turkey?

[webfact]

Migrants: what could scupper the EU's talks with Turkey?
By Catherine Hardy | With REUTERS



"We are certainly not giving Turkey a free ride"

BRUSSELS: -- The EU has warned that a deal with Turkey to curb mass migration to Europe hinges on Ankara acting to support peace talks in EU member Cyprus.

European Council President Donald Tusk says much work remains to be done.

EU officials have made last minute alterations to the draft document with Turkey to make it legally watertight.

But insiders say a stand-off over Cyprus could scupper the deal.

Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades has threatened to veto any progress in Turkey’s accession talks unless Ankara meets its obligations to open Turkish ports and airports to Cypriot traffic.

This would amount to a de facto recognition of the state.

An EU summit deal would also mean countries agreeing to accept quotas of refugees, something several states have so far rejected.

The terms of the deal

The proposals suggest Turkey takes back all migrants and refugees who enter the EU illegally from its territory or are detained in its waters.

In return, Ankara will get more EU money, faster visa-free access for its citizens and an acceleration of its slow-moving EU membership negotiations.

EU leaders will meet Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Friday morning to finalise the deal.

Greece

More than 4000 refugees and migrants have been given temporary shelter at Piraeus, the port of Athens.

They are being housed in four passenger terminals and a warehouse owned by the Port Authority.

Piraeus has become overcrowded as border restrictions have been imposed along the Balkan route leading to Western Europe.

Some are being transferred to other transit centres to ease the bottleneck at the port.

Italy

For Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, the situation is hard to understand.

“Europe can organise expeditions to Mars but in Idomeni we have women washing their new-born babies with bottled water in so-called refugee camps.”

“This is happening in Greece,in Europe, on our continent.”

The unprecedented human flow is causing problems right along the Mediterranean coast.

More than 600 people were brought ashore in southern Italy on Wednesday.

They had been rescued by a German ship off the coast of Libya.

Work is progressing but there is still a lot to do

“Work is progressing but there is still a lot to do” – EU Council President, Donald Tusk knows there are tough days ahead.

“It is right to reach an agreement with Turkey but there are principles that are fundamental for us, starting with human rights and press freedom.” – Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi says the EU’s core values must be respected.

“We are certainly not giving Turkey a free ride,” – EU Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans promises officials will not be a pushover.

“When a step has been taken towards a solution, when agreement has been reached on a package, the whole structure should not be allowed to be ruined just because of the caprice of one EU member country” – Turkey’s EU Affairs Minister Volkan Bozkir says the process must not be derailed.

European Parliament President Martin Schulz has told Germany’s Funke Media Group he does not expect a “final breakthrough” this week.


-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2016-03-17

[Steely Dan]

I hope the EU talks with Turkey are well publicized in the UK, I think that Turkey joining the EU would be the final impetus for the UK population to vote to leave.

[Toscano]

In my view the EU is already on the point of collapse . The Greek financial/political crisis has not yet been resolved ; so far the EU has avoided Greece defaulting and leaving the Eurozone ; but that still remains in the balance and has little prospect of success . The illegal migrant crisis has already overwhelmed the EU , that has no clear sense of which course to take . Angela Merkel has given a lead that the EU commission supports , but many people across Europe do not . The EU led by Merkel is allowing itself to be blackmailed by Turkey to stem the flow or stop the migrants ; in exchange for a huge sum of money , visa free European travel and opening the door to Turkey becoming an EU member . It is possible that little Cypress , as well as Member states who refuse to take migrants will block this initiative , one can only hope so . Turkey joining the EU will bet the end of the EU . There is already a strong possibility that Britain will vote OUT in the June 23rd referendum . There are a number of other member states that are not Happy with the EU , France , Netherlands , Finland , even Germany has been mentioned .

[bassman]

The main problem in Syria is that there is no safe zone set up inside of Syria to contain and protect the refugees. This is due in large part to the pathetic state of Europe's military readiness, this world is far from a peaceful utopia and its well past time for Europe to grow some balls. The Serbs (remember that country about the size of Texas county?) did the same to Europe with both Kosovo and Bosnia and their efforts to ethnically cleanse the affected regions. The only saving grace for Europe then was American intervention and lifting the heavy load.

Obama is partially right this time around in not providing the muscle to create a no fly zone and safe area in Syria, however I wish he would just pull out of this mess altogether and let the Euros and the Turks have it. Europe is leaderless today, dependent on Merkel. Currently there is no consensus building leader in Europe such as Tony Blair, and Obama is no Bill Clinton when it comes to volunteering American assets.

Edited March 17, 2016 by Scott
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[sabian]

The main problem in Syria is that there is no safe zone set up inside of Syria to contain and protect the refugees. This is due in large part to the pathetic state of Europe's military readiness, this world is far from a peaceful utopia and its well past time for Europe to grow some balls. The Serbs (remember that country about the size of Texas county?) did the same to Europe with both Kosovo and Bosnia and their efforts to ethnically cleanse the affected regions. The only saving grace for Europe then was American intervention and lifting the heavy load.

Obama is partially right this time around in not providing the muscle to create a no fly zone and safe area in Syria, however I wish he would just pull out of this mess altogether and let the Euros and the Turks have it. Europe is leaderless today, dependent on Merkel. Currently there is no consensus building leader in Europe such as Tony Blair, and Obama is no Bill Clinton when it comes to volunteering American assets.

The main problem in Bosnia was red tape from the UN, that is what caused so many deaths. The rules imposed on the foreign military operating there was insane, but had to be followed due to UN legislation. It took so long to get any decision from them, and usually only after the people had already been killed, Terribly managed war.

[razer]

At least Erdigan knows what he is doing. The hapless EU leaders would be floundering without him. Hell ... give Turkey some more money .. why not? Oh ...and why not send all the migrants to Europe. We know the terrorism has nothing to do with Islam. All they need is hugs, money and a house.

[Ulic]

I hope the EU talks with Turkey are well publicized in the UK, I think that Turkey joining the EU would be the final impetus for the UK population to vote to leave.

I just can't see Turkey getting EU membership no matter what is promised. You would

instantly have 10 million Turks move to Germany. Germany/EU will promise a lot but not

deliver on any of it. The hope is to stop/slow the migration, get a peace deal in Syria

and return everyone to Syria and make people apply to immigrate.

That said I do agree. I hope the Turkey deal is well covered in the UK. While I believe

Germany will be the #1 destination of Turks in the EU, the UK will be a close second.

[JemJem]

I hope the EU talks with Turkey are well publicized in the UK, I think that Turkey joining the EU would be the final impetus for the UK population to vote to leave.

You (not just you, Dan; I mean most people) are missing an important point. Why is Turkey seen as like a dumping ground for unwanted refugees ?! As almost everyone knows, Turkey is a relatively poor country, compared to most EU countries. Most estimates put the no of Syrian refugees already in Turkey at around 3 million people. Many European governments are screaming 'Nooooo' to even a tiny fraction of this number; yet they expect Turkey to take millions !

Again, virtually no one seems to care about the medium and long term effects (political, economic, sociological, security) of such a high number of refugees on Turkey.

Yet another point to be worried about is the high risk of a significant percentage of the EU aid to Turkey ending up in the pockets of some of the AKP politicans and the cronies.

Turkey's entering the EU is a concern to many, which I understand. But the above points are important too. By the way, I am sure you know that a country cannot enter EU, even if a single EU country says no. And, there is no way that for example Cyprus will ever say 'yes' to Turkey's membership. Not just Cyprus, but possibly also countries like France, Sweden and Denmark.

Anyway, as a Turkish person, I am concerned about the things that I wrote above in the first 3 paragraphs.

[Saradoc1972]

I hope the EU talks with Turkey are well publicized in the UK, I think that Turkey joining the EU would be the final impetus for the UK population to vote to leave.

Don't get your pants in a knot, Turkey is NEVER going to join the EU. That would mandate a positive popular vote in about a dozen EU countries, and you don't need a crystal ball to anticipate how the 4 Visegrad countries, Slowenia, and Austria would vote. They had a poll in Austria a couple of years back and that came out 90% negative, making them ponder if there was any use in going ahead with those EU-chapters when it was absolutely clear how that process would end, it's not like any swing of mood could be big enough to change that poll to positive.

We got a German-Turkish senior politician Cem Özdemir (I'd hail him an example of successful integration, but then he is with the Greens) who put things that way: "The Turks have acknowledged the strongest resistance to Turkish accession to the EU comes from those countries with already a sizable number of Turkish-background migrants."

If that were to happen, it is estimated there might be up to 18 million East-Anatolian goat herders on their feet.

[Lukecan]

I hope the EU talks with Turkey are well publicized in the UK, I think that Turkey joining the EU would be the final impetus for the UK population to vote to leave.

I just can't see Turkey getting EU membership no matter what is promised. You would

instantly have 10 million Turks move to Germany. Germany/EU will promise a lot but not

deliver on any of it. The hope is to stop/slow the migration, get a peace deal in Syria

and return everyone to Syria and make people apply to immigrate.

That said I do agree. I hope the Turkey deal is well covered in the UK. While I believe

Germany will be the #1 destination of Turks in the EU, the UK will be a close second.

No it wont, reverse migration is taking place as we speak, Turkey is not a poor country anymore. GDP per capita in Istanbul is $20,000, and trust me that goes a long way with the current exchange rate.

Europeans are very delusional, they think that everyone wants to move to Europe. Europe is a craphole, only people from wartorn countries like Iraq,Libya,Syria want to move there permanently. Yeah turks want visa free travel , to spend the weekend in champs elysee, spent some money, but living there? HELL NO, HELL NO.

I have a british passport, do I live in UK? No, and I dont see myself living in UK in the foreseeble future.

EU is about to collapse anyway, take Germany out it produces nothing. You have bunch of leechers like Greece,Bulgaria,Romania who dont add any value to Europe. Once upon a time it was an elite club, but after they let bulgarians and romanians in, Im saying thanks but no thanks, we turks dont want to join this union.

Edited March 18, 2016 by Lukecan

[Saradoc1972]

I hope the EU talks with Turkey are well publicized in the UK, I think that Turkey joining the EU would be the final impetus for the UK population to vote to leave.

I just can't see Turkey getting EU membership no matter what is promised. You would

instantly have 10 million Turks move to Germany. Germany/EU will promise a lot but not

deliver on any of it. The hope is to stop/slow the migration, get a peace deal in Syria

and return everyone to Syria and make people apply to immigrate.

That said I do agree. I hope the Turkey deal is well covered in the UK. While I believe

Germany will be the #1 destination of Turks in the EU, the UK will be a close second.

No it wont, reverse migration is taking place as we speak, Turkey is not a poor country anymore. GDP per capita in Istanbul is $20,000, and trust me that goes a long way with the current exchange rate.

Europeans are very delusional, they think that everyone wants to move to Europe. Europe is a craphole, only people from wartorn countries like Iraq,Libya,Syria want to move there permanently. Yeah turks want visa free travel , to spend the weekend in champs elysee, spent some money, but living there? HELL NO, HELL NO.

I have a british passport, do I live in UK? No, and I dont see myself living in UK in the foreseeble future.

EU is about to collapse anyway, take Germany out it produces nothing. You have bunch of leechers like Greece,Bulgaria,Romania who dont add any value to Europe. Once upon a time it was an elite club, but after they let bulgarians and romanians in, Im saying thanks but no thanks, we turks dont want to join this union.

Grains of truth everywhere in that post of yours, I just can't go with the general conclusion.

Germany may be the economic powerhouse of the EU, but saying the rest produces nothing just isn't true. Take "poor" Spain, for example, which produces nearly double the GDP of Turkey with just 2/3 of inhabitants. And Bulgaria, that little leech, is doing almost as well as Turkey, within 10% of that GDP, just with a much better outlook for having joined the EU and getting all the structural helps and business opportunities. Turkey owes parts of the investments that helped it develop to money transfers from EU countries; e.g. they made every male German Turks cough up 20k Marks for not being drafted into the army for 2 or 3 years; most rather paid. I would agree, though, the EU let Bulgarians and Romanians have the free movement liberties some 5 years early. Well, I suppose in exchange there will be a lot more people speaking German as a second language in the near future.

Istanbul by itself is likely doing very well. Just as you say, some 20k € go a long way with the exchange rate... you see the problem there? The middle class that indubitably has emerged is doing fine, the normal guys are living on very little, relatively speaking. So we're talking about potential immigrants from the less educated people and nearly undeveloped countryside. Turkey is a bit like Thailand where you can have highly developed westernized urban areas close to pre-industrial stretches of nothing. So, true, not every Turk will want to go to Europe on a permanent basis, just for holidays, but they can already do that now. Germany alone is handing out some 200k visa a year to Turks. It's just the 12k visa applications rejected that make you think twice about the deal; they're not doing that for nothing.

Reverse migration is taking place, very slowly though. Lots of pensioners from Germany going back, some educated Turks moving there with their superior German or other EU college qualifications for better opportunities, and there apparently is less pressure to make it to Germany. From an EU point of view problem is who is leaving (with their education or pension) and who is coming.

[Lukecan]

I hope the EU talks with Turkey are well publicized in the UK, I think that Turkey joining the EU would be the final impetus for the UK population to vote to leave.

I just can't see Turkey getting EU membership no matter what is promised. You would

instantly have 10 million Turks move to Germany. Germany/EU will promise a lot but not

deliver on any of it. The hope is to stop/slow the migration, get a peace deal in Syria

and return everyone to Syria and make people apply to immigrate.

That said I do agree. I hope the Turkey deal is well covered in the UK. While I believe

Germany will be the #1 destination of Turks in the EU, the UK will be a close second.

No it wont, reverse migration is taking place as we speak, Turkey is not a poor country anymore. GDP per capita in Istanbul is $20,000, and trust me that goes a long way with the current exchange rate.

Europeans are very delusional, they think that everyone wants to move to Europe. Europe is a craphole, only people from wartorn countries like Iraq,Libya,Syria want to move there permanently. Yeah turks want visa free travel , to spend the weekend in champs elysee, spent some money, but living there? HELL NO, HELL NO.

I have a british passport, do I live in UK? No, and I dont see myself living in UK in the foreseeble future.

EU is about to collapse anyway, take Germany out it produces nothing. You have bunch of leechers like Greece,Bulgaria,Romania who dont add any value to Europe. Once upon a time it was an elite club, but after they let bulgarians and romanians in, Im saying thanks but no thanks, we turks dont want to join this union.

Grains of truth everywhere in that post of yours, I just can't go with the general conclusion.

Germany may be the economic powerhouse of the EU, but saying the rest produces nothing just isn't true. Take "poor" Spain, for example, which produces nearly double the GDP of Turkey with just 2/3 of inhabitants. And Bulgaria, that little leech, is doing almost as well as Turkey, within 10% of that GDP, just with a much better outlook for having joined the EU and getting all the structural helps and business opportunities. Turkey owes parts of the investments that helped it develop to money transfers from EU countries; e.g. they made every male German Turks cough up 20k Marks for not being drafted into the army for 2 or 3 years; most rather paid. I would agree, though, the EU let Bulgarians and Romanians have the free movement liberties some 5 years early. Well, I suppose in exchange there will be a lot more people speaking German as a second language in the near future.

Istanbul by itself is likely doing very well. Just as you say, some 20k € go a long way with the exchange rate... you see the problem there? The middle class that indubitably has emerged is doing fine, the normal guys are living on very little, relatively speaking. So we're talking about potential immigrants from the less educated people and nearly undeveloped countryside. Turkey is a bit like Thailand where you can have highly developed westernized urban areas close to pre-industrial stretches of nothing. So, true, not every Turk will want to go to Europe on a permanent basis, just for holidays, but they can already do that now. Germany alone is handing out some 200k visa a year to Turks. It's just the 12k visa applications rejected that make you think twice about the deal; they're not doing that for nothing.

Reverse migration is taking place, very slowly though. Lots of pensioners from Germany going back, some educated Turks moving there with their superior German or other EU college qualifications for better opportunities, and there apparently is less pressure to make it to Germany. From an EU point of view problem is who is leaving (with their education or pension) and who is coming.

Look EU was very attractive before economically , say in the 70s. My dads cousin was a guest worker in Germany, he invested every penny of the money he earned into Istanbul, buying land and commercial real estate. Those days Turkey was dirt cheap, there was a huge gap between Germany and Turkey.

He was just a worker at Ford.

And guess what now? Thanks to the boom in 90s and 2000s, the investments he made became worth more than 10 million $ Can you imagine a German pensioner from Ford being worth that much? Because of this he came back to Turkey 15 years ago, and now lives in Istanbul very comfortably..

Istanbul is unarguably the best city in Europe if you have the economic means. It is my favourite city in the world after Bangkok.

Bulgaria is a village compared to Turkey, probably the GDP of Istanbul is more than the whole of Bulgaria alone.

In Spain unemployment is at 20%, youth unemployment is at 40%. Its a messed up economy.

Its best for both parties if Turkey doesn't join EU anyway. Joining the EU scares me to death, you lose control of your visa policy, central bank, foreign policy.

[Saradoc1972]

Look EU was very attractive before economically , say in the 70s. My dads cousin was a guest worker in Germany, he invested every penny of the money he earned into Istanbul, buying land and commercial real estate. Those days Turkey was dirt cheap, there was a huge gap between Germany and Turkey.

He was just a worker at Ford.

And guess what now? Thanks to the boom in 90s and 2000s, the investments he made became worth more than 10 million $ Can you imagine a German pensioner from Ford being worth that much? Because of this he came back to Turkey 15 years ago, and now lives in Istanbul very comfortably..

Istanbul is unarguably the best city in Europe if you have the economic means. It is my favourite city in the world after Bangkok.

Bulgaria is a village compared to Turkey, probably the GDP of Istanbul is more than the whole of Bulgaria alone.

In Spain unemployment is at 20%, youth unemployment is at 40%. Its a messed up economy.

Its best for both parties if Turkey doesn't join EU anyway. Joining the EU scares me to death, you lose control of your visa policy, central bank, foreign policy.

Looks like we can actually agree on everything here .

As our German Minister of Finance said two or three month ago (guy in the wheelchair), he was opposed to that accession process as it would only lead to mutual disappointment. Some say he is biding his time to replace Merkel. I hope he does, I like it when I don't feel I am being lied to.

And EU is definitely not for everyone, it has seriously overextended itself and the present crisis is the best example of how unanimous agreements are harder and harder to come by, even when matters are pressing.

Istanbul is definitely Turkey's cherry on the pie, and from what I hear more liberal and European than a lot of EU cities. I suppose that's why they on average like Erdogan a lot less than the rest. Turks actually seem pretty evenly split when it comes to him.

[sunnyjim5]

There is only one solution and that is the Australian solution !

Gun boats to deter/turn back the majority and interment on a remote island for the few who get though.

The few can then be processed and the majority of the few (fit young men of fighting age) can be returned to their place of origin.

Simple ?

[DefaultName]

These "refugees" that are going to be returned to Turkey, how exactly are they going to do that? I can't see a polite note & a train ticket working somehow, especially given what they've gone through to get where they are. IMO, It'll take armed guards & handcuffs, if they can even be found in the first place - they'll scatter when the word goes out and their communities will hide them.