JSCCIB revises down Thai export growth forecast to 0-2%

BANGKOK, 5 April 2016 (NNT) - The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has revised its forecast for export growth this year to 0-2%, due to the slow global economic recovery.

The JSCCIB said the Thai economy showed steady growth in February, due mainly to the tourism sector. However, February also recorded low levels of private investments and domestic consumption.

The export sector will likely continue its pattern of slow recovery, despite recording its first growth in 13 months. As the global economy is still recovering, the export sector is not expected to reach its target growth of 2% this year.

However, the JSCCIB has left Thailand's economic growth forecast at 3-3.5%, buoyed by the government's planned infrastructure investments and robust tourism. The rate of inflation will stay within the range of 0-1% this year.


-- NNT 2016-04-05

"The export sector will likely continue its pattern of slow recovery"

What slow recovery? Exports are declining on a monthly basis and will continue to decline even further as the government wilfully destroys the economy with its "mega" nonsenses, over valued currency, business/immigration red-tape(corruption) and its clamp down on all opponents. The government is simply ignoring the woes of the farmers, telling them to be self sufficient,to take care of themselves but this will simply lead to even bigger problems in the years to come as Thailand slips backwards into oblivion. Once the rice bowl of asia only to become the dust bowl of asia.

What next, ban on unsafe Thai planes and sanctions? Already some foreign governments are voicing their opposition to an all powerful military police force.

One of the few things being manufactured more in Thailand now than this time last year are official figures. "Steady growth" means trending upward. February was a one-off blip against a downward trend. And as for inflation of 0-1%, sometimes I think I must be living in a different country!

(JSCCIB) has revised its forecast for export growth this year to 0-2%

There may be some misunderstanding by JSCCIB on export growth. The Bank of Thailand recently cut its forecast for the export this year from 0 percent to a 2 percent contraction, otherwise written as -2%. GDP growth for 20l5 was 2.5-2.8% depending on the source.

A flat or contracting export growth for 2016 cannot support a GDP growth rate greater than 2015. The World Bank predicted Thailand’s growth to contract from 2.5% GDP growth in 2015 to just 2.0% growth in 2016. And we've yet to see the full impact of the drought and further slowdown of the Chinese economy.

One of the few things being manufactured more in Thailand now than this time last year are official figures. "Steady growth" means trending upward. February was a one-off blip against a downward trend. And as for inflation of 0-1%, sometimes I think I must be living in a different country!

So growth will be propped up by government money in infrastructure. While this is good in the short term they need long term planning. Ditch the subs, tanks, guns and military crap and spend it for education and pensions. Its the same in the rest of the world investors are waiting with baited breath to see if the government will pump more free money into the system. The investment junkies look at this like the stock gravy train will stay on the track. Forget expanding factories and hiring people just keep the market inflated with cheap money. Just read some fast food joint in the US of A is going to automate everything. When you go there to eat your food will not be touched by human hands and no human will be in sight. All because they feel that a liveable wage is to much.

A lot of folks don't realize that the West is responsible for the overwhelming majority of FDI. Whereas the Chinese lend money. FDI will continue to dive. 78% reduction in 2015. Situation will continue to decline as the generals clearly have no plans to return to democracy for decades if they get their way.