Brexit campaign is told to focus on immigration

[dick dasterdly]

Let's have a reality check here

The Brexiteers have comprehensively lost the trade/ economic argument

They should concentrate on real issues now such as free movement of labour and also the soveignty issue

For me, the issue of sovereignty is that these days we need to part pool sovereignty whether to NATO or to EU

For free movement of labour, we are already outside Schengen and Turkey is a non issue

I think these issues are debatable whereas the economic benefits are obvious to all but the poorly informed

Only in your dreams. Unfortunately you failed to proven your argument.

Although to be fair, you did show how arrogant you are.

In the same way that climate change is unproven? All top economists (except 8) agree. So therefore unproven?

As for my arrogance, I take that as a compliment.

When ones interlocutor is reduced to ad hominem attack their case is surly lost ?

Personally, I find it v odd that you consider being told 'you are arrogant' is actually a compliment. But I'm sure it all boils down to your original argument that only stupid people would consider Brexit, and therefore its a compliment because only stupid people would consider you arrogant .

The point you're missing here (not that its important!) is that people who like some parts of the EU - whilst disliking other parts - become far less receptive to the 'stay' campaign when those arguing in favour resort to 'only stupid, uneducated people would consider leaving the EU'.

[Grouse]

Let's have a reality check here

The Brexiteers have comprehensively lost the trade/ economic argument

They should concentrate on real issues now such as free movement of labour and also the soveignty issue

For me, the issue of sovereignty is that these days we need to part pool sovereignty whether to NATO or to EU

For free movement of labour, we are already outside Schengen and Turkey is a non issue

I think these issues are debatable whereas the economic benefits are obvious to all but the poorly informed

Only in your dreams. Unfortunately you failed to proven your argument.

Although to be fair, you did show how arrogant you are.

In the same way that climate change is unproven? All top economists (except 8) agree. So therefore unproven?

As for my arrogance, I take that as a compliment.

When ones interlocutor is reduced to ad hominem attack their case is surly lost ?

Personally, I find it v odd that you consider being told 'you are arrogant' is actually a compliment. But I'm sure it all boils down to your original argument that only stupid people would consider Brexit, and therefore its a compliment because only stupid people would consider you arrogant .

The point you're missing here (not that its important!) is that people who like some parts of the EU - whilst disliking other parts - become far less receptive to the 'stay' campaign when those arguing in favour resort to 'only stupid, uneducated people would consider leaving the EU'.

The thing is that when you have such a huge majority of experts in favour, it would seem foolish, paranoid even, to assume they're all vested interests, snouts in the trough etc etc. If you really look into the matter, the economics say stay. Now other aspects are open to debate.

Finally, it was not I who made the original correlation between education level and being in favour of Remain. However, that does seem to pan out in scholarly articles and contributions on here.

It actually makes me wonder about the upside for keen senior Brexiteers! Boris is obvious and so is Farage. What has Minford been promised?

Being a Yorkshireman, I tend to be blunt. No intention to insult.....

[Thaiwine]

I belive that not everyone is on the take, some people have what they belive to be the best intrests of the country at heart

[nontabury]

Let's have a reality check here

The Brexiteers have comprehensively lost the trade/ economic argument

They should concentrate on real issues now such as free movement of labour and also the soveignty issue

For me, the issue of sovereignty is that these days we need to part pool sovereignty whether to NATO or to EU

For free movement of labour, we are already outside Schengen and Turkey is a non issue

I think these issues are debatable whereas the economic benefits are obvious to all but the poorly informed

Only in your dreams. Unfortunately you failed to proven your argument.
Although to be fair, you did show how arrogant you are.

In the same way that climate change is unproven? All top economists (except 8) agree. So therefore unproven?

As for my arrogance, I take that as a compliment.

When ones interlocutor is reduced to ad hominem attack their case is surly lost

Personally, I find it v odd that you consider being told 'you are arrogant' is actually a compliment. But I'm sure it all boils down to your original argument that only stupid people would consider Brexit, and therefore its a compliment because only stupid people would consider you arrogant .

The point you're missing here (not that its important!) is that people who like some parts of the EU - whilst disliking other parts - become far less receptive to the 'stay' campaign when those arguing in favour resort to 'only stupid, uneducated people would consider leaving the EU'.

The thing is that when you have such a huge majority of experts in favour, it would seem foolish, paranoid even, to assume they're all vested interests, snouts in the trough etc etc. If you really look into the matter, the economics say stay. Now other aspects are open to debate.

Finally, it was not I who made the original correlation between education level and being in favour of Remain. However, that does seem to pan out in scholarly articles and contributions on here.

It actually makes me wonder about the upside for keen senior Brexiteers! Boris is obvious and so is Farage. What has Minford been promised?

Being a Yorkshireman, I tend to be blunt. No intention to insult.....

I am also a Yorkshireman and a proud Englishman and Brit. So to be blunt,throughout this thread you have given your opinion,which Is fair enough,even though plainly wrong. However you have continued to be arrogant and insulting to people who may not have benefitted from your level of education. Just remember even though education is very important,(although some would say, parts of it is brain washing) I have yet to hear of any University bestowing a degree in common sense. Edited May 2, 2016 by Scott

[nontabury]

I belive that not everyone is on the take, some people have what they belive to be the best intrests of the country at heart

That's fair comment,to be completely honest with you,Boris Johnson even though he is on the Britex side, I have no time for, he is after all a career politician,a member of the so-called elite,same as Cameron.

Nigel Farage seems to be something completely different,he's a Conviction politician,like him or not,he sticks to his guns,and unfortunately for his political opponents he does seem to hit the nail on the head quite frequently,and his forecast and assertions of future events do have a tendency to be correct.

Will he change,only time will tell.

Edited May 2, 2016 by nontabury

[Linzz]

I belive that not everyone is on the take, some people have what they belive to be the best intrests of the country at heart

That's fair comment,to be completely honest with you,Boris Johnson even though he is on the Britex side, I have no time for, he is after all a career politician,a member of the so-called elite,same as Cameron.

Nigel Farage seems to be something completely different,he's a Conviction politician,like him or not,he sticks to his guns,and unfortunately for his political opponents he does seem to hit the nail on the head quite frequently,and his forecast and assertions of future events do have a tendency to be correct.

Will he change,only time will tell.

Farage is also a trader turned politician so I would expect him to have better grasp of financial and economic relationships than your bog standard career politician

[RuamRudy]

I belive that not everyone is on the take, some people have what they belive to be the best intrests of the country at heart

That's fair comment,to be completely honest with you,Boris Johnson even though he is on the Britex side, I have no time for, he is after all a career politician,a member of the so-called elite,same as Cameron.

Nigel Farage seems to be something completely different,he's a Conviction politician,like him or not,he sticks to his guns,and unfortunately for his political opponents he does seem to hit the nail on the head quite frequently,and his forecast and assertions of future events do have a tendency to be correct.

Will he change,only time will tell.

Farage is also a trader turned politician so I would expect him to have better grasp of financial and economic relationships than your bog standard career politician

According to today's Telegraph, he has a very good grasp of the EU expenses procedure.

[Linzz]

Interesting. Expect a lot of dirt digging. But his Brexit stance would cut off his nose to spite his face if he relies on indulgences from the EU parliament.

If Brexit happens I guess he could at least let go of his bodyguards

[nontabury]

I belive that not everyone is on the take, some people have what they belive to be the best intrests of the country at heart

That's fair comment,to be completely honest with you,Boris Johnson even though he is on the Britex side, I have no time for, he is after all a career politician,a member of the so-called elite,same as Cameron.

Nigel Farage seems to be something completely different,he's a Conviction politician,like him or not,he sticks to his guns,and unfortunately for his political opponents he does seem to hit the nail on the head quite frequently,and his forecast and assertions of future events do have a tendency to be correct.

Will he change,only time will tell.

Farage is also a trader turned politician so I would expect him to have better grasp of financial and economic relationships than your bog standard career politician

According to today's Telegraph, he has a very good grasp of the EU expenses procedure.

That's rather a underhand article. They have mixed in with two Conservative politician,who seemingly are claiming a great deal of money,with a piece on NIgel Farage,who claimed expenses incurred, in employing a bodyguard.

Considering that he is a very controversial public figure, bringing an alternative view backed up with facts to the publics attention,the leader of the largest British party in the Brussels joke house,I'm not at all surprised that he has a body guard. I wonder how much Cameron's and Jeremy's bodyguard cost the taxpayer.

[Thaiwine]

Also The accusation against Nigel Farrang was made by Daimian Collins who is pro stay so not supprising he would try to smear dirt, he has an agenda a pro stay agenda

[dick dasterdly]

This is going to be short and blunt, because my more considered, tactful response suddenly disappeared whilst typing,

Depends on whether you think the establishment entities are looking after themselves or the majority of people.

You may not have been the first to say that only stupid, uneducated people would vote for Brexit - but you've been a firm supporter of this view, hence the arrogant comment.

I've decided that there's no actual evidence either way - it boils down (for those of us who don't hate all immigrants) to how much you hate the EU.

Which is a shame as the EU is a good idea, but it hasn't shown any signs of wanting to reform its expensive/wasteful culture - or the way some countries ignore EU rules whilst the UK follows them to the letter...

[Thaiwine]

No one can/should belive the bias hype and spin from either side,

Make up your own mind and do what you feel is best for Britain.

[paulbj2]

Can anyone give me a cogent, coherent reason that stands up to scrutiny why leaving the EU is such a great idea?

[Linzz]

How about 4?

* UK trade 50% outside EU as in Asia, Pacific, US, Commonwealth Countries. The UK is EU's single biggest customer world wide therefore EU needs UK more than other way around.

* 13 Billion pounds membership fee paid to EU budget 2015, EU spending on the UK was 4.5 billion

* Deconstruction of the British state and loss of sovereignty as Brussels takes over Westminster with unelected bureaucrats making European Union similar to Soviet Union which ultimately broke up.

* What Hitler couldn't do with bombs Cameron gives sovereignty away with enthusiasm

Edited May 2, 2016 by Linzz

[Richard W]

The British electorate voted on a referendum in 1975 on whether or not to Remain in the EEC, basically a trading block. They were unfortunately deceived,as without their democratic agreement, the politicians pushed through the Maastricht agreement in 1993 which created the monster that we now know as the EU.

Then the people should have believed Enoch Powell, rather than Roy Hattersley.

Of course, some federalists who believed Enoch did vote to remain, despite Hattersley's utterances.

Edited May 2, 2016 by Richard W

[sandyf]

UK: A Sunday Times economic outlook article on Brexit states "there's no pot of...

UK: A Sunday Times economic outlook article on Brexit states "there's no pot ofgold at the end of Brexit rainbow." The article basically focusses on, in theiropinion, flawed accounting estimate that overstates the cost to UK marketsstaying in the union at "E350M a week." The flipside to the argument is leavingthe EU has it's own costs that mitigated by the exit, but exacerbated. AngelGurria, Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) secretary general said "thebest outcome under Brexit is still worse than remaining an EU member, while theworst outcomes are very bad indeed." Saturday Financial Times article focusseson what increased market "turbulence" into the June 23 referendum. According tothe FT "uncertainty in the early hours of Friday morning" June 24, "will beexacerbated by the decision of broadcasters not to commission exit polls, whichin most elections are broadcast when voting concludes at 10pm."

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

2. May 2016 01:01:35

Not sure whether its a Sunday Times article or an MNI - Deutsche Borse company that said this?

Not that it matters as either way its another company with a vested interest - to be added to the rest of the 'establishment' that are pretty unanimous in stating Brexit is a bad idea.

It boils down to whether you trust these sources, or think that they have a good, personal and financial reason for maintaining the status quo. Good for them, but not necessarily good for ordinary people.

Neither, the article quite clearly states the source is the OECD.

Of course we all know that entities like the OECD are prone to incorrect statements:

"flawed accounting estimate that overstates the cost to UK markets

staying in the union at "E350M a week."

The leave campaign are always right but just don't want to tell the truth, they never mention the discount or the funds being returned to the UK.

Obviously she has no idea about what she is talking about.

"Angel Gurria, Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) secretary general said "the best outcome under Brexit is still worse than remaining an EU member, while the worst outcomes are very bad indeed.""

Edited May 3, 2016 by sandyf

[Linzz]

UK: A Sunday Times economic outlook article on Brexit states "there's no pot of...

UK: A Sunday Times economic outlook article on Brexit states "there's no pot ofgold at the end of Brexit rainbow." The article basically focusses on, in theiropinion, flawed accounting estimate that overstates the cost to UK marketsstaying in the union at "E350M a week." The flipside to the argument is leavingthe EU has it's own costs that mitigated by the exit, but exacerbated. AngelGurria, Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) secretary general said "thebest outcome under Brexit is still worse than remaining an EU member, while theworst outcomes are very bad indeed." Saturday Financial Times article focusseson what increased market "turbulence" into the June 23 referendum. According tothe FT "uncertainty in the early hours of Friday morning" June 24, "will beexacerbated by the decision of broadcasters not to commission exit polls, whichin most elections are broadcast when voting concludes at 10pm."

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

2. May 2016 01:01:35

Not sure whether its a Sunday Times article or an MNI - Deutsche Borse company that said this?

Not that it matters as either way its another company with a vested interest - to be added to the rest of the 'establishment' that are pretty unanimous in stating Brexit is a bad idea.

It boils down to whether you trust these sources, or think that they have a good, personal and financial reason for maintaining the status quo. Good for them, but not necessarily good for ordinary people.

Neither, the article quite clearly states the source is the OECD.

Of course we all know that entities like the OECD are prone to incorrect statements:

"flawed accounting estimate that overstates the cost to UK markets

staying in the union at "E350M a week."

The leave campaign are always right but just don't want to tell the truth, they never mention the discount or the funds being returned to the UK.

Obviously she has no idea about what she is talking about.

"Angel Gurria, Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) secretary general said "the best outcome under Brexit is still worse than remaining an EU member, while the worst outcomes are very bad indeed.""

Here is mention of the discount already accounted for:

"The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.

In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.

Each year the UK gets an instant discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £5 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £18 billion in contributions."

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

[paulbj2]

How about 4?

* UK trade 50% outside EU as in Asia, Pacific, US, Commonwealth Countries. The UK is EU's single biggest customer world wide therefore EU needs UK more than other way around.

* 13 Billion pounds membership fee paid to EU budget 2015, EU spending on the UK was 4.5 billion

* Deconstruction of the British state and loss of sovereignty as Brussels takes over Westminster with unelected bureaucrats making European Union similar to Soviet Union which ultimately broke up.

* What Hitler couldn't do with bombs Cameron gives sovereignty away with enthusiasm

I would not describe one of those as a cogent, coherent arguments for leaving

No 1

A huge proportion of what we buy from the EU is agricultural products. Almost all our tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, peaches, nectarines and a lot of other fruit and vegetables come from the EU. The classic British breakfast bacon is mainly sourced from the EU. Effectively, there are no other suppliers who could meet the UK demand for those products so either we do without them or we continue to buy them from the EU suppliers. Not much of a bargaining chip, really. Sure VW, BMW, Mercedes, and most Vauxhalls (made mainly in the EU) and other European marques would get a bit dearer if the UK slapped tariffs on, but I'm sure the British retail car industry could absorb that as they have screwed the British motorist for long enough. The UK exports to the EU are almost entirely manufactured goods. Surprisingly, perhaps, Britain is the 3rd or 4th largest manufacturer of cars in Europe (it's true!). We don't get to hear about that all that much as we make them for other people; mainly Japanese manufacturers. Nissan have a huge plant in Sunderland, Honda and Toyota both manufacture in the UK as do BMW (think Mini and Rolls Royce). It costs €100s of millions to equip a car plant to build a new model, the last time there was a change of model, Nissan had to choose between Sunderland and the Czech Republic (if I remember rightly). Labour and other costs were significantly lower in the Czech Republic but in the end Sunderland won because of the exceptionally high build quality but it was apparently a close run thing. Now consider the likely scenario if Britain goes for Brexit. The loss of unfettered access to the world's largest market in the shape of the EU will likely just swing it in the direction of the UK's EU competitors. The same scenario is probably going to be repeated at Honda, Toyota and BMW's plants in the UK. That's the end of tens of thousands of mainly highly skilled, well paid jobs; it may even result in the loss of hundreds of thousands of such jobs if you consider the knock-on effect on companies in the area who supply these huge plants. Volkswagen buy a large proportion of their brake assemblies from companies in the Midlands but they could shift to alternative sources in France, Italy or other countries if they are too inconvenienced by the Brexit. The Airbus consortium manufacture their wing assemblies and some other parts in the UK. They could manufacture them elsewhere in the EU and after a Brexit, the likelihood is they may well consider it. Of course, Airbus and the car manufacturers wouldn't just take the jobs away from Britain, they'd take the people as well. Think of it this way, if you are a highly skilled worker and you are offered redundancy and the prospect of little more than a job, shelf filling at Tesco or a much higher standard of living in a vibrant economy in central Europe where you would be a valued member of the team setting up a new plant, what would you do?

Of course there great opportunities in developing markets in the far east and elsewhere but the fact that we are members of the EU doesn't make trading with them more difficult, quite the contrary, the EU has trading agreements with almost everyone from which we benefit as much as any other member state. All these trading agreements would be invalidated for the UK after Brexit. The commonwealth, ha! I think you are still living in the 1950s. Australia's big trading partners are local; Indonesia, Japan and China. The US has made it plain that we are right at the back of the queue. What you left with are mainly countries who have no money to buy expensive goods from the UK, they want to sell stuff to us! They buy from China and other low cost economies.

No 2

I believe the figures you quote have been pretty much completely debunked by the independent fact checking organisations; the real figure is much lower. Nevertheless it is a fact that unlike some other economies, we are net contributors to the EU budget. However, I should point out that some of this is because of crass ineptitude on the part of the UK government. The UK could have claimed £millions in aid from the EU emergency fund following the recent catastrophic floods but they didn't claim it; citing some lame excuse about paperwork!

What most Brexiters claim will be huge economies may look a little sick when the truth emerges. Let's take the example of EASA, never heard of it? It's the "European Aviation Safety Agency" which is an EU body. They look after aviation safety and security for the whole EU in such matters as organising and coordinating air traffic control, licensing aircraft types and crew and a whole host of other rather important air safety related activities. They also maintain the blacklist of airlines who are not permitted to fly into European airspace (a long and scary list it is too; all 20 pages of it!). If the UK exits the EU, either the British will have to take over all this work for Britain thus needing to recruit and pay for 100s more civil servants or the UK will have to pay the EU agency to carry on doing it for them. There are dozens of such EU agencies; for example the EU medicines agency, the EMA, that looks after the safety and licensing of medicines in the EU (currently based in London along with several other EU bodies but presumably they will go upon Brexit), the EU Chemicals Agency (ECHA) which oversees the chemical safety in the EU (and for whom I designed the public database) and many, many others who perform vital tasks for the UK that will have to be either paid for by the UK or taken over by recruiting and training UK civil servants by the hundred.

These are the hidden costs to the UK of a Brexit decision.

No 3

Very bad news; to get a decent deal from the EU on trade and other matters we will have to accept "free movement of labour" so unlimited EU immigration, most EU regulations and we will have to pay the EU a huge sum for the privilege (although less than today).

No 4

What is sovereignty, pray explain! With the world's largest market on it's doorstep and in a world dominated by China, India, the US, Russia and the EU, the UK will have the right to do exactly as it pleases after Brexit until one of the big boys says it can't.

[Mosha]

Send back all the Europeans...

Bar stool logic,

Then Europe will send back all the Brits who have not contributed to our welfare system and who have no jobs, the fool needs to find out just how many Brits are living and working in in Europe first.

There are more mainland Europeans in UK than Brits in Europe.

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

[Mosha]

TTIP could be dead.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ttip-leak-could-spell-the-end-of-controversial-trade-deal-say-campaigners-a7009896.html

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

[Johnyo]

Send back all the Europeans...

Bar stool logic,

Then Europe will send back all the Brits who have not contributed to our welfare system and who have no jobs, the fool needs to find out just how many Brits are living and working in in Europe first.

There are more mainland Europeans in UK than Brits in Europe.

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

The difference being that most Europeans in the UK are working and paying taxes and most Brits in Europe are retired. I mean who in the right mind would want to retire in the UK if you had the means to go somewhere hot. Edited May 3, 2016 by Johnyo

[paulbj2]

Send back all the Europeans...

Bar stool logic,

Then Europe will send back all the Brits who have not contributed to our welfare system and who have no jobs, the fool needs to find out just how many Brits are living and working in in Europe first.

There are more mainland Europeans in UK than Brits in Europe.

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

This is an interesting point. Despite all the bar-stool rational, the actual figures suggest that very few EU citizens draw benefits such as Job Seekers Allowance or Social Security payments (although they are of course entitled to "in work" benefits the same as anyone from the EU or elsewhere). In fact citizens from EU countries have a much lower claim rate of JSA and social security benefit than UK citizens. They are overwhelmingly of working age and that's exactly what they are there to do; work.

However, if you then look at the huge number of Brits who live overseas, a disproportionate number of them are retired particularly in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. If the EU reciprocal medical arrangements are withdrawn many, even most, of the retired will have little choice but to return to the UK as they will be unable to afford private medical insurance (this is generally limited to the under 70s anyway and invariably excludes pre-existing conditions) and very few will be in a position to pay their medical bills out of their pensions or savings.The best estimate I can find for numbers of such retired folk is around 500,000. If even half of those are forced to returned to the UK, the NHS would collapse overnight. 250,000 elderly and sickly patients suddenly appearing out of the blue.

It seems from the official figures that the number Brits living in the other EU countries roughly equals the number of EU citizens living in Britain so the net advantage to Britain would be small or more likely negative. The EU citizens working here get to stay and the Brit pensioners come flocking home as they no longer have medical cover.

[Grouse]

How about 4?

* UK trade 50% outside EU as in Asia, Pacific, US, Commonwealth Countries. The UK is EU's single biggest customer world wide therefore EU needs UK more than other way around.

* 13 Billion pounds membership fee paid to EU budget 2015, EU spending on the UK was 4.5 billion

* Deconstruction of the British state and loss of sovereignty as Brussels takes over Westminster with unelected bureaucrats making European Union similar to Soviet Union which ultimately broke up.

* What Hitler couldn't do with bombs Cameron gives sovereignty away with enthusiasm

I would not describe one of those as a cogent, coherent arguments for leaving

No 1

A huge proportion of what we buy from the EU is agricultural products. Almost all our tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, peaches, nectarines and a lot of other fruit and vegetables come from the EU. The classic British breakfast bacon is mainly sourced from the EU. Effectively, there are no other suppliers who could meet the UK demand for those products so either we do without them or we continue to buy them from the EU suppliers. Not much of a bargaining chip, really. Sure VW, BMW, Mercedes, and most Vauxhalls (made mainly in the EU) and other European marques would get a bit dearer if the UK slapped tariffs on, but I'm sure the British retail car industry could absorb that as they have screwed the British motorist for long enough. The UK exports to the EU are almost entirely manufactured goods. Surprisingly, perhaps, Britain is the 3rd or 4th largest manufacturer of cars in Europe (it's true!). We don't get to hear about that all that much as we make them for other people; mainly Japanese manufacturers. Nissan have a huge plant in Sunderland, Honda and Toyota both manufacture in the UK as do BMW (think Mini and Rolls Royce). It costs 100s of millions to equip a car plant to build a new model, the last time there was a change of model, Nissan had to choose between Sunderland and the Czech Republic (if I remember rightly). Labour and other costs were significantly lower in the Czech Republic but in the end Sunderland won because of the exceptionally high build quality but it was apparently a close run thing. Now consider the likely scenario if Britain goes for Brexit. The loss of unfettered access to the world's largest market in the shape of the EU will likely just swing it in the direction of the UK's EU competitors. The same scenario is probably going to be repeated at Honda, Toyota and BMW's plants in the UK. That's the end of tens of thousands of mainly highly skilled, well paid jobs; it may even result in the loss of hundreds of thousands of such jobs if you consider the knock-on effect on companies in the area who supply these huge plants. Volkswagen buy a large proportion of their brake assemblies from companies in the Midlands but they could shift to alternative sources in France, Italy or other countries if they are too inconvenienced by the Brexit. The Airbus consortium manufacture their wing assemblies and some other parts in the UK. They could manufacture them elsewhere in the EU and after a Brexit, the likelihood is they may well consider it. Of course, Airbus and the car manufacturers wouldn't just take the jobs away from Britain, they'd take the people as well. Think of it this way, if you are a highly skilled worker and you are offered redundancy and the prospect of little more than a job, shelf filling at Tesco or a much higher standard of living in a vibrant economy in central Europe where you would be a valued member of the team setting up a new plant, what would you do?

Of course there great opportunities in developing markets in the far east and elsewhere but the fact that we are members of the EU doesn't make trading with them more difficult, quite the contrary, the EU has trading agreements with almost everyone from which we benefit as much as any other member state. All these trading agreements would be invalidated for the UK after Brexit. The commonwealth, ha! I think you are still living in the 1950s. Australia's big trading partners are local; Indonesia, Japan and China. The US has made it plain that we are right at the back of the queue. What you left with are mainly countries who have no money to buy expensive goods from the UK, they want to sell stuff to us! They buy from China and other low cost economies.

No 2

I believe the figures you quote have been pretty much completely debunked by the independent fact checking organisations; the real figure is much lower. Nevertheless it is a fact that unlike some other economies, we are net contributors to the EU budget. However, I should point out that some of this is because of crass ineptitude on the part of the UK government. The UK could have claimed £millions in aid from the EU emergency fund following the recent catastrophic floods but they didn't claim it; citing some lame excuse about paperwork!

What most Brexiters claim will be huge economies may look a little sick when the truth emerges. Let's take the example of EASA, never heard of it? It's the "European Aviation Safety Agency" which is an EU body. They look after aviation safety and security for the whole EU in such matters as organising and coordinating air traffic control, licensing aircraft types and crew and a whole host of other rather important air safety related activities. They also maintain the blacklist of airlines who are not permitted to fly into European airspace (a long and scary list it is too; all 20 pages of it!). If the UK exits the EU, either the British will have to take over all this work for Britain thus needing to recruit and pay for 100s more civil servants or the UK will have to pay the EU agency to carry on doing it for them. There are dozens of such EU agencies; for example the EU medicines agency, the EMA, that looks after the safety and licensing of medicines in the EU (currently based in London along with several other EU bodies but presumably they will go upon Brexit), the EU Chemicals Agency (ECHA) which oversees the chemical safety in the EU (and for whom I designed the public database) and many, many others who perform vital tasks for the UK that will have to be either paid for by the UK or taken over by recruiting and training UK civil servants by the hundred.

These are the hidden costs to the UK of a Brexit decision.

No 3

Very bad news; to get a decent deal from the EU on trade and other matters we will have to accept "free movement of labour" so unlimited EU immigration, most EU regulations and we will have to pay the EU a huge sum for the privilege (although less than today).

No 4

What is sovereignty, pray explain! With the world's largest market on it's doorstep and in a world dominated by China, India, the US, Russia and the EU, the UK will have the right to do exactly as it pleases after Brexit until one of the big boys says it can't.

Great post, beautifully put!

Thanks!

[Johnyo]

Send back all the Europeans...

Bar stool logic,

Then Europe will send back all the Brits who have not contributed to our welfare system and who have no jobs, the fool needs to find out just how many Brits are living and working in in Europe first.

There are more mainland Europeans in UK than Brits in Europe.

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This is an interesting point. Despite all the bar-stool rational, the actual figures suggest that very few EU citizens draw benefits such as Job Seekers Allowance or Social Security payments (although they are of course entitled to "in work" benefits the same as anyone from the EU or elsewhere). In fact citizens from EU countries have a much lower claim rate of JSA and social security benefit than UK citizens. They are overwhelmingly of working age and that's exactly what they are there to do; work.

However, if you then look at the huge number of Brits who live overseas, a disproportionate number of them are retired particularly in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. If the EU reciprocal medical arrangements are withdrawn many, even most, of the retired will have little choice but to return to the UK as they will be unable to afford private medical insurance (this is generally limited to the under 70s anyway and invariably excludes pre-existing conditions) and very few will be in a position to pay their medical bills out of their pensions or savings.The best estimate I can find for numbers of such retired folk is around 500,000. If even half of those are forced to returned to the UK, the NHS would collapse overnight. 250,000 elderly and sickly patients suddenly appearing out of the blue.

It seems from the official figures that the number Brits living in the other EU countries roughly equals the number of EU citizens living in Britain so the net advantage to Britain would be small or more likely negative. The EU citizens working here get to stay and the Brit pensioners come flocking home as they no longer have medical cover.

Not to mention frozen pensions as the government does to all non EU expats. I'm sure many Brits in Thailand can identify with that.

[Grouse]

Send back all the Europeans...

Bar stool logic,

Then Europe will send back all the Brits who have not contributed to our welfare system and who have no jobs, the fool needs to find out just how many Brits are living and working in in Europe first.

There are more mainland Europeans in UK than Brits in Europe.

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Most working

Brits in Europe include a high number of retirees.

Too few Brits have adequate linguistic skills to hold down a proper job in Europe

[Mosha]

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

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[nontabury]

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

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Please don't confuse those in the remain camp with facts.

[Johnyo]

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

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Those figures don't even begin to tell the truth. The amount given for Spain refers to Brits registered on the consulate. The real figure is closer to 800K. I'm on the mobile and can't be bothered to search for the many articles you will find just by Google it. If you can't find them let me know and when I get back I will post the relevant linkd

[Johnyo]

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

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Those figures don't even begin to tell the truth. The amount given for Spain refers to Brits registered on the consulate. The real figure is closer to 800K. I'm on the mobile and can't be bothered to search for the many articles you will find just by Google it. If you can't find them let me know and when I get back I will post the relevant linkd

OK here you go

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/19/spanish-expats-divided-over-brexit/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/beware-of-immigration-say-the-british-expats-enjoying-sunny-spain-10167638.html

So you can imagine the rest of the figures

[Johnyo]

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

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Please don't confuse those in the remain camp with facts.

Good to see you will believe anything just to suit your needs

http://www.telegraph...ed-over-brexit/

https://en.wikipedia...The_Independent

http://www.independe...n-10167638.html