UTCC estimates Thai economic growth at 3%

BANGKOK, 12 May 2016 (NNT) – The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) projects that the Thai economy will expand 3 percent this year while export growth will remain stagnant.

Mr Thanawat Polvichai, Director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting of UTCC, indicated that during the first quarter this year, private consumption experienced a slowdown due mainly to people’s concerns over the gloomy economy and the impact of drought on farmers’ income.

For the whole year of 2016, Mr Thanawat forecast an economic growth of 3 percent, citing world economic recovery as the most important factor. He also noted that Thai exports might only see 0-0.8 percent expansion as a consequence of demand shrinkage.

According to the Director, supporting factors for the Thai economy in 2016 include consumption and investment stimulus measures, steady growth in tourism and investments in mega infrastructure projects and special economic zones.

On the other hand, among the negative factors are a possible increase of interest rate by the US Federal Reserve, soaring household debt, persisting drought, high cost of living and financial institutions’ adoption of strict lending regulations to curb NPLs.


-- NNT 2016-05-12

Maybe? meanwhile there old enemy Burma, 8.6%!

IMF outlook for ASEAN and select other countries (April 2016 outlook):

Myanmar 8.6%

Lao PDR 7.4%

Cambodia 7.0%

Vietnam 6.3%

Philippines 6.0%

Indonesia 4.9%

Malaysia 4.4%

Thailand 3.0%

Singapore 1.8%

China 6.5%

Korea 2.7%

Hong Kong 2.2%

Japan 0.5%

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/apd/eng/pdf/areo0516.pdf

And I estimate they believe in stating whatever the junta wants to hear to avoid a stink of academic adjustment

In January 2016 UTCC projected a 3.5% growth rate citing export contraction, Chinese economic slowdown, low farm prices, weakened baht currency, and International politics. A week later UTCC predicted exports would expand by 2%.

In April 2016 UTCC predicted growth rate of 2.7-2.9% but also revealed that Thailand is seeing the highest rate of household debts in 8 years.

Now UTCC projects that the Thai economy will expand 3% this year while export growth will remain stagnant. However, its list of favorable economic factors about matches unfavorable factors.

GDP growth for 2015 was 2.5-2.8% (World Bank vs. Thai government). A prediction of 3% for 2016 is looking very optimistic. More likely there will be several interest rate adjustments before year’s end.