New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[Grouse]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

[chiang mai]

And to continue with the mystery over this:

I can understand the possibility that the media reports are biased towards Remain.

I can understand the possibility that the Bank of England, with help from the U.S. Fed, is keeping the pound strong.

But I can't understand the strength of the equity markets, which are really too large for government control. Nor can I understand the strength of the betting odds against Brexit.

The conflict is baffling as can be.

Over 75% of FTSE100 companies rely on foreign, not UK earnings hence they are not Pound sensitive.

And I seriously do not believe the BOE or the Fed. are engaged in Pound support, maybe later if the loonies win but not today.

[allanos]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

I agree. I think that face-to-face polling is possibly more accurate than on-line or telephone polls,

but is still not to be fully trusted as an indicator.

Of course, the result is only going to be brought about by those who actually get off their bums, and go and vote.

[dick dasterdly]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

Good to hear that you're sticking with your view that only the uneducated and stupid would vote for Brexit .

[SgtRock]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Not only is this post an abomination.

It highlights the mentality of many remainiacs. Too thick to realise that none of them will be voting in the referendum.

[nontabury]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

I just wish we could have put you on TV in the UK over these last couple of weeks. Then Brexit would win with 99% of the people going against your ignorant arrogance.

[SgtRock]

This German nails it for me.

I do not believe in the European Union as it is at the moment. It needs to be shaken up, it needs proper leaders. To have a proper shake-up it needs a really big shock, then maybe it can be rebuilt."

Sabine Von Reth, from Frankfurt, who owns the bar with her partner Rene Von Reth

Except I expect the 'shock reaction' will result in more right-wing policies, rather than cutting back on EMP's salaries and other ridiculous waste...

Not convinced by this.

I think a shock reaction will create a chain reaction.

Radical change will be required by the EU if it is to survive.

[allanos]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/bill-coles/eu-referendum_b_10567404.htmlrediction

Will this "expert" be eating his words soon!?

The author of this piece in the Huffington post is an opinionated ass!

[dick dasterdly]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

I just wish we could have put you on TV in the UK over these last couple of weeks. Then Brexit would win with 99% of the people going against your ignorant arrogance.

Grouses posts have been so rude and arrogant that its reasonable to think he may be on the 'leave' side?

[Grouse]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Sick. Remove please

[dick dasterdly]

This German nails it for me.

I do not believe in the European Union as it is at the moment. It needs to be shaken up, it needs proper leaders. To have a proper shake-up it needs a really big shock, then maybe it can be rebuilt."

Sabine Von Reth, from Frankfurt, who owns the bar with her partner Rene Von Reth

Except I expect the 'shock reaction' will result in more right-wing policies, rather than cutting back on EMP's salaries and other ridiculous waste...

Not convinced by this.

I think a shock reaction will create a chain reaction.

Radical change will be required by the EU if it is to survive.

Yes, but I stand by my post that the 'reaction' will be to become more right-wing rather than cutting back on EMPs' salaries and other expenditure that would appall the electorate if they knew about how EU money is spent.

[Grouse]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

I just wish we could have put you on TV in the UK over these last couple of weeks. Then Brexit would win with 99% of the people going against your ignorant arrogance.

Arrogant? Indeed!

Ignorant? Coming from you? Hillarious!

[dick dasterdly]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Sick. Remove please

Not sure why you're bothered by this silly post (from a proven liar), when you have no compunction in calling those that disagree with you uneducated and stupid?

[Grouse]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

I just wish we could have put you on TV in the UK over these last couple of weeks. Then Brexit would win with 99% of the people going against your ignorant arrogance.

Grouses posts have been so rude and arrogant that its reasonable to think he may be on the 'leave' side?

There is only one of me. Next time use an apostrophe when you insult me! I blame poor education...

[allanos]

And to continue with the mystery over this:

I can understand the possibility that the media reports are biased towards Remain.

I can understand the possibility that the Bank of England, with help from the U.S. Fed, is keeping the pound strong.

But I can't understand the strength of the equity markets, which are really too large for government control. Nor can I understand the strength of the betting odds against Brexit.

The conflict is baffling as can be.

If your comments about the BOE and Fed are correct, they are both having to spend billions of pounds and dollars of

taxpayers' money, but to what end? the BOE would have to be buying pounds, and the Fed would have to be selling

dollars, but in huge quantities if their objective is to support the pound. I am not sure why they would do this?

Stock markets are seldom an indicator of what is happening now (although this is what people would tend to believe).

They are rather an indicator of the future. Clearly, then, there is confidence about the future, but, in the case of the

Brexit vote, whether it is a belief for "in" or "out", one simply would know.

Commodities including gold and oil have been trading higher over the past few months, which would indicate that the

the world economy is improving. This may be trickling down into stock markets everywhere.

Equity markets would be far easier for governments to control in terms of volume of money, than the currency market.

The value of stock markets around the world does not come close to the amount of currency traded each day

(around $4.5 - 5 trillion).

[dick dasterdly]

Another Grouse post that makes me wonder whether he is actually trying to support a 'leave' vote or just having a laugh at those who care about the subject?

Edit - but grouse is right, I did miss an apostrophe .

Edited June 23, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[allanos]

Note to Orac -

I was a late arrival on the forum and was working my way through all of the preceding posts.

You did, indeed, apologise, as I discovered later, and I take my hat off to you for being honourable.

There are many on this forum who would not have manned up in this way.

[SgtRock]

Except I expect the 'shock reaction' will result in more right-wing policies, rather than cutting back on EMP's salaries and other ridiculous waste...

Not convinced by this.

I think a shock reaction will create a chain reaction.

Radical change will be required by the EU if it is to survive.

Yes, but I stand by my post that the 'reaction' will be to become more right-wing rather than cutting back on EMPs' salaries and other expenditure that would appall the electorate if they knew about how EU money is spent.

We are talking about different things.

The chain reaction I referred to would mean no more EU. Salaries and expenditure would become irrelevant.

The domino effect has been talked about for a long time for a reason.

[cumgranosalum]

He's got a point.....

[WhamBam]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

[cumgranosalum]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Oh good, you're back.

Are you still maintaining that votes should be cast on Friday - or, according to another post, votes to 'remain' should be cast today, and votes to leave should be cast tomorrow?

Always good to hear from a poster that has outright lied.

Really? Surely he didn't get it wrong?

nevertheless I'd check if I were you - QED - seems to confirm many suspicions about Brexiteers though, doesn't it?

Edited June 23, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[cumgranosalum]

Sopme Brexiteers might find this a bit embarassing as it rather kills a few of their sacred cows......

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-facts-brexit-immigration-trade-economy-fishing-leave-remain-what-will-happen-a7095046.html

[taxout]

"If your comments about the BOE and Fed are correct, they are both having to spend billions of pounds and dollars of

taxpayers' money, but to what end?"

I'm just thinking about things that might be happening. I've no strong feelings whether they are or not.

But if there has been pressure on the pound during the past week or so, it wouldn't surprise me if the Bank of England has stepped in and tried to stabilize the markets. Why? Well, even apart from political considerations, central bankers are notorious for wanting stability above all. That's the tradition and that's the mindset. It's precisely what you'd expect them to do.

As for the U.S. Fed, I wasn't suggesting that they'd be supporting the pound for their own account, but it's not unusual for central banks to coordinate so they don't work at cross purposes and for the Fed, if necessary, to lend U.S. dollars to the BOE to help its stabilization efforts.

[stag4]

He's got a point.....

Here we go, Racist card once again from the remainiac side.

That and Project Fear, give us a break!

[dick dasterdly]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Oh good, you're back.

Are you still maintaining that votes should be cast on Friday - or, according to another post, votes to 'remain' should be cast today, and votes to leave should be cast tomorrow?

Always good to hear from a poster that has outright lied.

Really? Surely he didn't get it wrong?

nevertheless I'd check if I were you - QED - seems to confirm many suspicions about Brexiteers though, doesn't it?

Yes, I'm sure it was v 'funny' . Some people have a weird sense of humour on polling day, but happy that this outright lie confirmed your view about those with a different opinion.

[ace]

And to continue with the mystery over this:

I can understand the possibility that the media reports are biased towards Remain.

I can understand the possibility that the Bank of England, with help from the U.S. Fed, is keeping the pound strong.

But I can't understand the strength of the equity markets, which are really too large for government control. Nor can I understand the strength of the betting odds against Brexit.

The conflict is baffling as can be.

If your comments about the BOE and Fed are correct, they are both having to spend billions of pounds and dollars of

taxpayers' money, but to what end? the BOE would have to be buying pounds, and the Fed would have to be selling

dollars, but in huge quantities if their objective is to support the pound. I am not sure why they would do this?

Stock markets are seldom an indicator of what is happening now (although this is what people would tend to believe).

They are rather an indicator of the future. Clearly, then, there is confidence about the future, but, in the case of the

Brexit vote, whether it is a belief for "in" or "out", one simply would know.

Commodities including gold and oil have been trading higher over the past few months, which would indicate that the

the world economy is improving. This may be trickling down into stock markets everywhere.

Equity markets would be far easier for governments to control in terms of volume of money, than the currency market.

The value of stock markets around the world does not come close to the amount of currency traded each day

(around $4.5 - 5 trillion).

It is odd. According to the polls it's too close to call, well within the margin of error. Yet sterling is already higher against USD than was predicted to *follow * a remain vote. Bookies have gone 1-4 now on remain. The trend on the leave vote has been consistently *up*. Options cost, ie. Volatility, is way *up*. It could be that bank AIs have analysed the data and see a high probability of remain, the phone v Internet difference perhaps? Or it could be that the Fix is in (see Austria). Or someone sold/leaked postal vote data? Would be worth 1bill£ no prob.

[dick dasterdly]

Is it me, or is TV all over the place?

[zombie nights]

The FTSE 100 is going higher and the pound strengthening; so it seems the financial markets believe they know the result...

[dick dasterdly]

The FTSE 100 is going higher and the pound strengthening; so it seems the financial markets believe they know the result...

Time will tell and I'm worried about either result which, IMO, will not be good for the average and poor in Britain (edit- and EU).

Edited June 23, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[chiang mai]

It is odd. According to the polls it's too close to call, well within the margin of error. Yet sterling is already higher against USD than was predicted to *follow * a remain vote. Bookies have gone 1-4 now on remain. The trend on the leave vote has been consistently *up*. Options cost, ie. Volatility, is way *up*. It could be that bank AIs have analysed the data and see a high probability of remain, the phone v Internet difference perhaps? Or it could be that the Fix is in (see Austria). Or someone sold/leaked postal vote data? Would be worth 1bill£ no prob.

Wheee, a conspiracy theory, or maybe laying the basis for reasons why Brexit lost, exciting.