Brexit: what can UK contribute to the world/EU?

[rwdrwdrwd]

It's you who is suggesting that the THB is a 'safe haven currency' by claiming:

So,no there will not really be any huge change or upheaval regarding the Thai Baht,the devaluation will be against the major currencies and not even all of those,the exotics like THB are perfectly safe no need to panic!

The following, which you quoted, is me explaining why you are wrong, and why it is not.

In terms of there being no effect on GBP/THB if the GBP moves against other currencies - of course there will! If there were no effect, one could simply change their GBP > THB, change the THB > USD, then change USD > GBP and make huge profits. If only life were that simple.

..

If the £ drops against the $, unless there happens to be negative news on the THB it [GBP] will drop by a very similar %age against the THB.

The above is true, if you disagree, please explain exactly which aspect of it you disagree with, since I suspect you misunderstand my comment.

Exchange rate with all currencies will be affected, not only with 'major currencies' everything adapts to balance the market and for a minor currency to not adapt leaves open a HUGE arbitrage opportunity which, trust me, is not going to happen.

Edited June 22, 2016 by rwdrwdrwd

[MyFrenU]

"The above is true, if you disagree, please explain exactly which aspect of it you disagree with, since I suspect you misunderstand my comment.

Exchange rate with all currencies will be affected, not only with 'major currencies' everything adapts to balance the market and for a minor currency to not adapt leaves open a HUGE arbitrage opportunity which, trust me, is not going to happen."

I'm not going to spend too much time explaining how currencies work to people with so little understanding,suffice to say the exotics will depreciate considerably against the safe haven currencies such as the US Dollar,Japanese Yen,Swiss Franc etc!
You seem to be assuming the Thai Baht trades only against the British Pound and no other currencies for some reason?

[AlexRich]

I'm hoping for a "Remain" vote tomorrow.

I do not believe that the questionable benefits of reduced immigration will make up for the negative economic impact of a "Brexit".

What will happen if Brexit wins? The pound will get clobbered and stay much lower for a considerable time ... not good for anyone in Thailand who draws on a GBP income. Should the UK fall into recession the pound may well be clobbered again, as that and the uncertainty of new trade negotiations drags on. The Scots will vote Remain and the SNP will press for another referendum ... if the UK looks like faltering they might well win it this time. In the foreseeable future, the demographic issue of a large population of old people will kick in, a problem that requires more people in work paying taxes ... and we are back to high levels of immigration. So, despite some issues with Europe, I'm for remain.

[rwdrwdrwd]

I'm not going to spend too much time explaining how currencies work to people with so little understanding,suffice to say the exotics will depreciate considerably against the safe haven currencies such as the US Dollar,Japanese Yen,Swiss Franc etc!

You seem to be assuming the Thai Baht trades only against the British Pound and no other currencies for some reason?

I am familiar with how currencies work.

If the GBP loses value against the USD due to Brexit, then it will lose value against the THB as well.

You appear to be claiming that this is not the case.

Were this not the case, this would be possible.

Pre Brexit scenario:

1 GBP === 1.45 USD, 1 GBP === 50 THB, 1 USD === 35 THB

In the event GBP falls against USD by 10%, from what you appear to be stating we would end up with

1 GBP === 1.32 USD, 1 GBP === 50.1 THB, 1 USD === 35 THB

This is utterly nonsensical. You could just infinitely convert GBP > THB > USD > GBP and increase your GBP by 10% every iteration.

Step 1 - 1 GBP * 50.1 = 50.1 THB

Step 2 - 50.1 THB / 35 = 1.45 USD

Step 3 - 1.45 USD / 1.32 = 1.10 GBP

I can only assume we are talking past one another. Please elucidate upon your statement that

So,no there will not really be any huge change or upheaval regarding the Thai Baht,the devaluation will be against the major currencies and not even all of those,the exotics like THB are perfectly safe no need to panic!

Edited June 22, 2016 by rwdrwdrwd

[MyFrenU]

"So,no there will not really be any huge change or upheaval regarding the Thai Baht,the devaluation will be against the major currencies and not even all of those,the exotics like THB are perfectly safe no need to panic!"

I cannot explain this in any plainer language,if you don't understand then better to just watch it play out!

[rwdrwdrwd]

I suspect you have no idea what you are talking about to be perfectly honest.

[MyFrenU]

I know for an absolute fact that is indeed the case with you!

[rwdrwdrwd]

"So,no there will not really be any huge change or upheaval regarding the Thai Baht,the devaluation will be against the major currencies and not even all of those,the exotics like THB are perfectly safe no need to panic!"

If GBP devalues against USD, but remains at the same level with THB as you claim, then (unless THB devalues against USD by 10% as well) this will be possible.

Step 1 - 1 GBP * 50.1 = 50.1 THB

Step 2 - 50.1 THB / 35 = 1.45 USD

Step 3 - 1.45 USD / 1.32 = 1.10 GBP

A magic money machine.

Edited June 22, 2016 by rwdrwdrwd

[MyFrenU]

"This is utterly nonsensical. You could just infinitely convert GBP > THB > USD > GBP and increase your GBP by 10% every iteration."

So there is no charge for converting currencies these days then?You don't even understand the most basic premise of a bid and an ask,or spread to simplify it even more for your eyes and ears and yet expect me to explain to you the effect Brexit or Bremain will have on each and all currencies?

[rwdrwdrwd]

I'm perfectly familiar with spreads. Do you think there is a 10% charge for converting currencies?

You think that THB will drop 10% against USD as well, if the GBP drops?

Unless one of the above applies, the following claim is entirely illogical.

"So,no there will not really be any huge change or upheaval regarding the Thai Baht,the devaluation will be against the major currencies and not even all of those,the exotics like THB are perfectly safe no need to panic!"

Edited June 22, 2016 by rwdrwdrwd

[MyFrenU]

Don''t waste my time or your own anymore going around in utterly pointless circles!

[rwdrwdrwd]

If anyone else could try to explain what MyFrenU is saying, and why we shouldn't be worried about the GBP losing value against the THB if GBP falls against major currencies, I'm all ears.

[MyFrenU]

"If GBP devalues against USD, but remains at the same level with THB as you claim, then (unless THB devalues against USD by 10% as well) this will be possible.

Step 1 - 1 GBP * 50.1 = 50.1 THB

Step 2 - 50.1 THB / 35 = 1.45 USD

Step 3 - 1.45 USD / 1.32 = 1.10 GBP

A magic money machine."

"I'm perfectly familiar with spreads."

I'm afraid the above in your very own words proves the exact and polar opposite of that,now good day to you Sir as I have far more constructive ways,unlike you,to spend my day!

Edited June 22, 2016 by MyFrenU

[rwdrwdrwd]

I'm not sure who your broker is, but mine doesn't have spreads that equate to anywhere near 10% of the underlying instrument.

I am however bored of you not being able to expand on your original comment beyond being patronising, and your general aggressiveness.

If anybody more polite would like to expand upon MyFrenU's perspective, it would be great to hear.

Edited June 22, 2016 by rwdrwdrwd

[Naam]

If anyone else could try to explain what MyFrenU is saying, and why we shouldn't be worried about the GBP losing value against the THB if GBP falls against major currencies, I'm all ears.

i would like to participate in this discussion but the hurdles set by MyFrenYou (German EURo and Greek EURo) are too high. most probably he refers to purchase power and BigMac comparisons which a rational thinking investor deems to be jokes.

[Ace of Pop]

What does It offer.?. At the moments it's cornered the Market as a Dump Site for Single Male financial refuge louts and Romanian pick pockets. The Home of free Healhcare,what its a bit tight on is helping any white or long standing immigrant who helped to create the wealth it bucks away daily like a rich Uncle

[rwdrwdrwd]

"So,no there will not really be any huge change or upheaval regarding the Thai Baht,the devaluation will be against the major currencies and not even all of those,the exotics like THB are perfectly safe no need to panic!"

The GBPTHB rate is also adjusting as the GBPUSD bounces around. Both with a 6% range so far today and with the peaks and troughs at the same time.

What an astounding surprise. It's almost as is when there is dramatic news that affects the value of a currency, it affects the exchange rate for said currency against all other currencies, not just the major ones. Who would have thought it.

Edited June 24, 2016 by rwdrwdrwd

[overherebc]

And there was me thinking Scotland was part of the UK...

Scotland should tow the line as per the rest of the UK. They had their chance to govern themselves as a seperate state and decided against it.

As a Scot I agree with you.

[overherebc]

And there was me thinking Scotland was part of the UK...

Scotland should tow the line as per the rest of the UK. They had their chance to govern themselves as a seperate state and decided against it.

As a Scot I agree with you.

In the past few hours on XE it]s gone from 52 to 49 baht to the pound mid rate.

[Spilornis]

Looks like an unexpected result.

If leave does get up...........Not too may changes in the short term (other than a new PM) but medium/ longer term could be interesting.

On all the Brit expats in Europe I do not expect change for the middle wealthy and up (they will arrange some form of visa) but for the less well off it is hard to see why Spain etc would want them to remain given their incredibly high youth unemployment etc

[SooKee]

And there was me thinking Scotland was part of the UK...

Scotland should tow the line as per the rest of the UK. They had their chance to govern themselves as a seperate state and decided against it.

As a Scot I agree with you.

In the past few hours on XE it]s gone from 52 to 49 baht to the pound mid rate.

And now 48. Pound at its lowest now since 1985.

Sent using Tapatalk

Edited June 24, 2016 by SooKee

[rwdrwdrwd]

10% down against USD, 9% against THB. When do the minor currencies bounce back MyFrenU?

I can only hope that nobody mistook your superciliousness for competence.

Edited June 24, 2016 by rwdrwdrwd

[elliss]

^^^ bullshiT, of coarse the baht sterling rate will be affected if the pound crashes.

How much , will GBP fall , and how rapid will be the crash be ?

Those expats on pensions living in LOS, will be on cut back mode , as of now.

Merry Xmas , on 44 bht for your pound , i think not .

[sub101uk]

Well its all over the UK is leaving the EEC and the Thai Baht is now 47 to a pound how far its going to drop no body knows .

[MissAndry]

^^^ bullshiT, of coarse the baht sterling rate will be affected if the pound crashes.

How much , will GBP fall , and how rapid will be the crash be ?

Those expats on pensions living in LOS, will be on cut back mode , as of now.

Merry Xmas , on 44 bht for your pound , i think not .

I would have thought it would be the EURO that would crash and burn.

It was Britain supporting the EU countries, not the EU countries supporting Britain.

Don't care what the pound does in the short term, I brought a years worth over with me (at 52/pound).

Can't see how the EURO can survive without the UK and a few more contributors.

But what do I know. Guess they'll just print more EUROs.

[Oxx]

Well its all over the UK is leaving the EEC and the Thai Baht is now 47 to a pound how far its going to drop no body knows .

Of course, these currency fluctuations are absolutely nonsensical. It's going to be a further two years before the UK can leave. In the interim nothing will change. No rational reason for the fall in the pound's value, and as soon as cooler heads prevail it will bounce back.

[JaseTheBass]

Lucky a referendum doesn’t actually mean change if the govt doesn’t want to change.

[Flanno]

I trust all those who voted to exit won't be complaining if pensions are cut further down the track.

[JaseTheBass]

I trust all those who voted to exit won't be complaining if pensions are cut further down the track.

Or when they're on the dole.

[rijit]

Most brits i know and RESPECT,, note respect, are today embarrassed to be English or British.

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited June 25, 2016 by rijit