Baht to Weaken to 37 to the US Dollar, According to KBank Forecast

[webfact]

Baht to Weaken to 37 to the US Dollar, According to KBank Forecast
BY VIRAJ SHAJ



BANGKOK: -- Forecasts from KBank point to the baht weakening against the greenback by the end of the year. Looming interest rate hikes in the United States and the potential of the U.K leaving the European Union are to blame.

The bank’s capital market research department asserts that the baht will weaken in the second half of the year as global uncertainties push the currency downward.

Immediate forecasts have the baht retreating to 35.50 versus the USD in June, falling to 36 versus the greenback in July, and reaching 37 versus the dollar by the end of the year. Siam Commercial Bank also forecasts the baht falling to 37.

The baht has fallen slightly from Monday’s 35.21/35.23 to 35.28/35.30 on Tuesday.

KBank believes that the United States will increase interest rates twice this year, starting with a hike in July. Offshore funds have increased greatly in Asia, with foreign holdings of Thai bonds skyrocketing from 40 billion baht to over 140-billion-baht last week.

Full story: https://ethailand.com/business-news/baht-weaken-37-us-dollar-according-kbank-forecast/2896/

-- xxxx 2016-06-16

[dcnx]

Yeh!

[Mango Bob]

That can only mean the baht will get stronger.

[Emster23]

Let's hope that just this one time they are right. Or at least I will...

[taichiplanet]

i hope they are wrong, and it goes to 40!

[kalbo123]

If this bank is so sure about this I assume they are buying dollars big time now.....

[wonder6281]

Proves they have no idea because the Fed is not going to raise rates in 2016.

[Just1Voice]

If they're saying 37, then look for 40.

[Pib]

Well, a press conference by the Fed yesterday now indicates there may only be one more interest hike this year and even one hike is far from a sure thing...basically, the Fed has got more dovish over the last week or so due to changing economic conditions. The Kbank forecast may be water under the bridge now unless Thailand does something to weaken the baht. But the direction of currency seems to go the opposite of conventional wisdom (guesstimates) many times and since my income is in USD the baht weakening to 37 has my stamp of approval should the FX Gods deem such.

[Asiantravel]

Proves they have no idea because the Fed is not going to raise rates in 2016.

" Looming interest rate hikes "

I'm still waiting for the pigs to fly past my window

" There is another cycle here that is much more influential on the current market dynamic and should be much easier to spot. When the Fed talks up the economy and promises rate increases, the dollar usually rallies. When the dollar rallies, U.S. multi-national corporate profits take a hit, and the market falls. When the market falls, economic confidence falls and puts pressure on the Fed to maintain easy policy. This is a loop that the Fed does not have the stomach to break."

Peter Schiff

[SoilSpoil]

20 to 25 to the Dollar or Euro would be great so that I can let my kids study in the West..

[DrTuner]

40 would be good, easier to count in your head. Better yet, just make it 50 since you seem to have the power to control forex, will ya?

[upena]

KBank's predictions are on par with TAT

[Kabula]

The U.S. will not be increasing interest rates this year.

Why, they can't without causing a financial collapse.

Too much debt as most are close to credit defaults now.

With the dollar retreating, it's not good news for retirees here that have to rely on the combination, U.S. pension income + Thai bank savings seasoned for 3 months for qualifying for their renewal of their retirement extension.

Trying to estimate what the dollar-THB exchange rate will be three months prior to application day will be impossible.

Many Canadians that did the combination lost their retirement visa extension when their currency dropped dramatically in the past.

More will be forced to deposit the full 800,000 THB min and then sum three months before in a Thai bank savings account to be safe, if they can.

Another problem is junk bonds prices are falling and many pensions will fail at some point.

[Suradit69]

Proves they have no idea because the Fed is not going to raise rates in 2016.

KBank believes that the United States will increase interest rates twice this year

The Fed changes its "mind" on a weekly basis. A week ago they claimed the unusually low reported rise in employment was an aberration and increases in employment were on track. Then this week they expressed concerns with a weaker employment projection.

Then there's Brexit, the US elections, the abysmal state of European banks, the continued slump in the Japanese economy, the cost of building a 90 foot wall on the Mexican border, the direction the wind is blowing, Kim Kardashian's mood swings and every other ridiculous thing they can think to worry about.

Watching central banks around the world attempting to manage their economies is like watching a drunk stumbling from pillar to post.

[Redline]

They have no clue because nobody else does either. I watch and read the business news from different sources in the USA, and things change quickly in this word.

Go back and ask the pig again...

[Suradit69]

They have no clue because nobody else does either. I watch and read the business news from different sources in the USA, and things change quickly in this word.

Go back and ask the pig again...

"...things change quickly in this word."

Employment forecasts don't change significantly from one week to the next. Rate of price inflation doesn't change from one week to the next. The Japanese economy has been on life-support for years.

Most importantly we don't need Fed governors announcing their personal views on the likelihood of rate increases on a daily basis.

If you read and watch business news, you know people are getting fed up with all the flip-flopping & lip-flapping from the Fed.

[dhream]

The Fed. Shut it down and charge every living chair with crimes against humanity.