So what did the Brexit supporters gain?

[Orac]

 

The UK is already in trade deal talks with Countries outside the EU.

 

As far as trade deals with the EU goes, this will be a central component part of the Brexit negotiations.

 

The EU does far more trade with the UK than the UK does with the EU. Something that certain posters should keep in the back of the minds.

 

Despite some very silly stupid remarks emanating from certain EU officials, the UK and the EU both need each other for the foreseeable future.

 

Despite the sabre rattling from both sides, a deal will be struck that is to the benefit of both parties, the more that the blowhards keep rattling their gums, the harder it will be to reach that agreement.

Of course a compromise will be reached, that is what negotiations are about.

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, NanLaew said:

 

In other words, the Japanese desperately need the UK to do a direct trade deal with them as soon as possible so that it dovetails with Brexit in 2 years time.

 

Free access to the EU, or we pack up in the UK and set up in the EU ... more diplomatic, but essentially that was the message.   

 

 

[rockingrobin]

46 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

No - we automatically leave two years after triggering Art 50 unless both sides agree to an extension. My point was that the UK want that trade deal and EU want to avoid budget complications until 2020.

 

Or you could take a cynical point of view, and say negotations not completed by 2020 , uk pays into budget, and is used as a delaying tactic untill 2023 or beyond.

I dont think the above will happen, but in politics 2 to 3 years can be a long time

[Orac]

Or you could take a cynical point of view, and say negotations not completed by 2020 , uk pays into budget, and is used as a delaying tactic untill 2023 or beyond.

I dont think the above will happen, but in politics 2 to 3 years can be a long time

Possibly but unlikely. The EU budget from 2020 onwards is not likely to include UK as it is hard enough for them to negotiate it as it is without having to make allowances for us possibly being still there or not.

[rockingrobin]

4 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Possibly but unlikely. The EU budget from 2020 onwards is not likely to include UK as it is hard enough for them to negotiate it as it is without having to make allowances for us possibly being still there or not.

 

This could be uk unique deal, invoke emergency break on migration and remain in the single market on a rolling basis as set by the budget timetable

[dick dasterdly]

30 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Possibly but unlikely. The EU budget from 2020 onwards is not likely to include UK as it is hard enough for them to negotiate it as it is without having to make allowances for us possibly being still there or not.

 

It sounds as if the EU is a touch more desperate than the UK?

 

We don't know of course, time will tell.

 

Plus - Can we finally put to bed the argument that the EU controls the timetable?

 

It seems clear that they don't - the UK controls the timetable.

[dick dasterdly]

Must add that I think the top politicians are playing a very cynical 'waiting game'.

 

Will the EU collapse?  As many other people in other countries think 'they've done it - why not us?'/the poorer countries dragging the richer countries down/how will elections and referendums in other countries turn out?  etc. etc.

[Orac]

It sounds as if the EU is a touch more desperate than the UK?

 

We don't know of course, time will tell.

 

Plus - Can we finally put to bed the argument that the EU controls the timetable?

 

It seems clear that they don't - the UK controls the timetable.

No - the timetable is set by Article 50 at 2 years. The UK controls when it is triggered but, once it is, any extensions are by mutual agreement.

[Orac]

Must add that I think the top politicians are playing a very cynical 'waiting game'.

 

Will the EU collapse?  As many other people in other countries think 'they've done it - why not us?'/the poorer countries dragging the richer countries down/how will elections and referendums in other countries turn out?  etc. etc.

The top politicians, tories in this case, also have a deadline of 7th May 2020 which is when the next General election is due and they will need to have something positive to show from brexit or leave themselves wide open.

[Orac]

Must add that I think the top politicians are playing a very cynical 'waiting game'.

 

Will the EU collapse?  As many other people in other countries think 'they've done it - why not us?'/the poorer countries dragging the richer countries down/how will elections and referendums in other countries turn out?  etc. etc.

The top politicians, tories in this case, also have a deadline of 7th May 2020 which is when the next General election is due and they will need to have something positive to show from brexit or leave themselves wide open.

[i claudius]

The E.U is doomed ,we just got out FIRST

[cumgranosalum]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/australia-says-there-will-not-be-a-brexit-trade-deal-with-uk-for-years-a7229366.html

 

this underlines a very serious problem and a misconception.

 

The problem is that it will take ages to establish trade deals with Oz and they are actually more interested in the bigger EU market anyway.

The misconception was that we had deserted countries like Oz and NZ when we joined the EU - the truth being we actually represented their interests quite vociferously in the EU and they are now looking to people like Germany to replace Australia says there will not be a Brexit trade deal with UK for years

us

[SgtRock]

Contrary to what some Australian hasbeen has to say

 

The Australian PM has this to say

 

Quote

Australia to seal early trade deal with Britain after Brexit, says Turnbull

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/05/australia-to-seal-early-trade-deal-with-britain-after-brexit-predicts-turnbull

 

Just like Guesthouse. Why is someone who is supposedly in Brisbane all over this thread like a dose of the clap ?

[rockingrobin]

44 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

Contrary to what some Australian hasbeen has to say

 

The Australian PM has this to say

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/05/australia-to-seal-early-trade-deal-with-britain-after-brexit-predicts-turnbull

 

Just like Guesthouse. Why is someone who is supposedly in Brisbane all over this thread like a dose of the clap ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-trade-analysis-idUKKCN11D1CR

 

 

[rockingrobin]

49 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

Contrary to what some Australian hasbeen has to say

 

The Australian PM has this to say

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/05/australia-to-seal-early-trade-deal-with-britain-after-brexit-predicts-turnbull

 

Just like Guesthouse. Why is someone who is supposedly in Brisbane all over this thread like a dose of the clap ?

It also appears Mr Turnball knows more than Mrs May

' After the meeting on Monday, Turnbull said Britain planned to exit the EU by early 2019 and had “an enormous amount of work to do to put in place new free trade agreements”. '

[SgtRock]

5 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

It also appears Mr Turnball knows more than Mrs May

' After the meeting on Monday, Turnbull said Britain planned to exit the EU by early 2019 and had “an enormous amount of work to do to put in place new free trade agreements”. '

 

Why would Turnbull know more then May ?

 

According to May A50 will be invoked early 2017, that would mean an exit by early 2019.

 

Of course there is an enormous amount of work to be done between now and 2019, I do not think anyone is denying that.

 

Please enlighten us all to the insider info that Turnbull has 

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, SgtRock said:

Contrary to what some Australian hasbeen has to say

 

The Australian PM has this to say

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/05/australia-to-seal-early-trade-deal-with-britain-after-brexit-predicts-turnbull

 

Just like Guesthouse. Why is someone who is supposedly in Brisbane all over this thread like a dose of the clap ?

 

Hint: One of them is German and is hugely disappointed to see the Fatherland's latest attempt to take over Europe flounder so close to the finishing line.

[Khun Han]

On the subject of the Japanese statement, does anybody seriously believe that the UK won't ensure that Japanese-owned businesses will have accepteable trading arrangements with the EU post-brexit? The stuff being spouted by remainers is just so much more shrill scaremongering.

[happy Joe]

I must say that for a convinced European, the desperate efforts of Brexiter for reassurance is especially Hilarious.

 

But no, the Brits, this is not the situation in Cuba or Venezuela that await you ... or so later, after you.

 

An opportunity for me to thank you for the good slices of laughs that we need every day. With a special mention for friend Khun Han and his sidekick Sergeant Guignol. Some others too but we can not mention all them.

 

Thanks again. 

[cumgranosalum]

I’ve always had a sneaking admiration for my mate’s fiancée. A true Issan girl she has looked after him for 4 or 5 years now and picked him up when he was drunk, helped him with all his paperwork and documents. But she has always seemed to have a flair for business.

 So when she agreed to marry him I was a bit surprised as he’s not that well off.

 Anyway that all came to an end last week when she told him the engagement was off and she was leaving.

 My mate was understandably upset and confused and pleaded with her to tell him why it was over.

 She replied “When we marry you not have EU passport, now I marry Yellaman or Farangset - him have good passport”

 Poor guy was a Brexiteer too - voted himself out of a marriage...probably a lucky expcape!

 

 

 

[AlexRich]

26 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

On the subject of the Japanese statement, does anybody seriously believe that the UK won't ensure that Japanese-owned businesses will have accepteable trading arrangements with the EU post-brexit? The stuff being spouted by remainers is just so much more shrill scaremongering.

 

They will try ... but what the Japanese want is access to the market like they have today ... not tariffs or restrictions of any sort. What will the Brits have to concede on to get that deal? 

 

Where the Japanese government scaremongering? Where Lloyds Insurance scaremongering? 

 

Seems like everyone is at it? Or is it just that you are in 'denial'? 

 

 

[AlexRich]

10 minutes ago, cumgranosalum said:

 

I’ve always had a sneaking admiration for my mate’s fiancée. A true Issan girl she has looked after him for 4 or 5 years now and picked him up when he was drunk, helped him with all his paperwork and documents. But she has always seemed to have a flair for business.

 

 So when she agreed to marry him I was a bit surprised as he’s not that well off.

 

 Anyway that all came to an end last week when she told him the engagement was off and she was leaving.

 

 My mate was understandably upset and confused and pleaded with her to tell him why it was over.

 

 She replied “When we marry you not have EU passport, now I marry Yellaman or Farangset - him have good passport”

 

 Poor guy was a Brexiteer too - voted himself out of a marriage...probably a lucky expcape!

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wonder if he's having buyers remorse? 

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, happy Joe said:

I must say that for a convinced European, the desperate efforts of Brexiter for reassurance is especially Hilarious.

 

But no, the Brits, this is not the situation in Cuba or Venezuela that await you ... or so later, after you.

 

An opportunity for me to thank you for the good slices of laughs that we need every day. With a special mention for friend Khun Han and his sidekick Sergeant Guignol. Some others too but we can not mention all them.

 

Thanks again. 

 

On the contrary, SgtRock is far more articulate than I, and even I don't have any difficulties putting the remainer hysteria to bed .

 

By the way, for those not familiar with happy joe, he normally posts on the threads about the brutal murders of Hannah Witheridge and David Miller on Koh Tao. In support of the island's serial-killing hiso mafia family .

[cumgranosalum]

3 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Hint: One of them is German and is hugely disappointed to see the Fatherland's latest attempt to take over Europe flounder so close to the finishing line.

Teutophobia - the Brexit equivalent of "scaremongering"?

[Linzz]

7 hours ago, cumgranosalum said:

 

I’ve always had a sneaking admiration for my mate’s fiancée. A true Issan girl she has looked after him for 4 or 5 years now and picked him up when he was drunk, helped him with all his paperwork and documents. But she has always seemed to have a flair for business.

 

 So when she agreed to marry him I was a bit surprised as he’s not that well off.

 

 Anyway that all came to an end last week when she told him the engagement was off and she was leaving.

 

 My mate was understandably upset and confused and pleaded with her to tell him why it was over.

 

 She replied “When we marry you not have EU passport, now I marry Yellaman or Farangset - him have good passport”

 

 Poor guy was a Brexiteer too - voted himself out of a marriage...probably a lucky expcape!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tell him his intuition provided a completely unexpected benefit from Brexit ahead of time.

[cumgranosalum]

Brexiteers - (or the Brostrichers) spend a lot of time saying that the UK can negotiate this and negotiate that....what they seem to forget is the WE ALREADY HAD until they stuck a spanner in the works....

 

I can't think of a single country that hasn't expressed concerns about Brexit - it is just a monumental embarrassment..

 

Here's a  negotiators viewpoint....

 

UK Brexit goals ‘completely unrealistic,’ Czech envoy says

[dick dasterdly]

15 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

They will try ... but what the Japanese want is access to the market like they have today ... not tariffs or restrictions of any sort. What will the Brits have to concede on to get that deal? 

 

Where the Japanese government scaremongering? Where Lloyds Insurance scaremongering? 

 

Seems like everyone is at it? Or is it just that you are in 'denial'? 

 

 

The Japanese govt. are the same as all other 'influential players' - terrified that the EU may collapse, which will cost them a lot of money.

 

Hence the determination (desperation?) to try to keep the UK in the EU.

[dick dasterdly]

28 minutes ago, cumgranosalum said:

Brexiteers - (or the Brostrichers) spend a lot of time saying that the UK can negotiate this and negotiate that....what they seem to forget is the WE ALREADY HAD until they stuck a spanner in the works....

 

I can't think of a single country that hasn't expressed concerns about Brexit - it is just a monumental embarrassment..

 

Here's a  negotiators viewpoint....

 

UK Brexit goals ‘completely unrealistic,’ Czech envoy says

Yes.  The UK already had free trade deals within the unbelievably expensive, wasteful EU.

 

On top of this, poor voters had seen wages stagnate/drop/disappear - as cheaper labour came from even poorer EU countries.

 

Of course other countries and financial institutions are expressing concern about Brexit!  It damages their financial position - even more so if the EU collapses.

[AlexRich]

3 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

The Japanese govt. are the same as all other 'influential players' - terrified that the EU may collapse, which will cost them a lot of money.

 

Hence the determination (desperation?) to try to keep the UK in the EU.

 

And you actually believe that they are more concerned about the so-called imminent EU collapse? What will you say if the EU doesn't collapse, and just evolves over time? 

 

What they want is the same level of access to 500m plus people in the EU as they have currently without restrictions or tariffs ... if they can get that I don't think they'd much care whether or not the UK was technically a member of the EU. Nothing to do with fear of EU collapse - fear of losing EU business, and hacked off that they might have to move to obtain that. Same for Lloyds Insurance, same for foreign banks relying on passporting.

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

31 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

And you actually believe that they are more concerned about the so-called imminent EU collapse? What will you say if the EU doesn't collapse, and just evolves over time? 

 

What they want is the same level of access to 500m plus people in the EU as they have currently without restrictions or tariffs ... if they can get that I don't think they'd much care whether or not the UK was technically a member of the EU. Nothing to do with fear of EU collapse - fear of losing EU business, and hacked off that they might have to move to obtain that. Same for Lloyds Insurance, same for foreign banks relying on passporting.

 

 

Yes, I do believe all they are very concerned about the possibility of the EU collapsing.

 

Their best scenario (assuming the UK actually leaves) is that it remains in place with a largely reduced budget - but despite the poor countries dragging it down, it remains in place.

 

Edit - But I do agree that they would all prefer that the UK remains in the EU, as it suits their financial interests.  Let's face it, the UK leaving may well be a negative for the UK - but its even more of a negative for the EU who are losing one of the few contributors to their way OTT expenditure and encourages the populations of other countries to get 'pissed off' with the uncontrolled immigration etc.

 

But perhaps its only the UK, and the population of other wealthy countries feel entirely differently.  Seems a bit odd to me, and doesn't seem to be supported by news stories coming from other wealthy EU countries, but only time will tell.

 

 

Edited September 9, 2016 by dick dasterdly