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Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea


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CCP Klutzes in Beijing never anticipated a judicial involvement in their ongoing SCS belligerence, bellicosity, aggressions over the decades, even after the UNCLOS became effective in 1994. Yet here we have the UN sponsored Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, created in 1895, examining the International Laws of the Sea and the CCP denial of it.

France is committed to Asia-Pacific presence, says senior officer

The Mistral-class amphibious assault ship Dixmude, berthed at Singapore's Changi Naval Base during a five-month deployment to the region in April 2015. Source: IHS/Kelvin Wong

French Navy Rear Admiral Bernard-Antoine Morio de l'Isle, who holds overall operational responsibility for the Pacific as well as for any naval assets operating in the region, asserted that the country is committed to protecting its citizens and economic interests in the Asia-Pacific region.

Speaking at Singapore's Changi Naval Base aboard the navy's second Aquitaine-class Frégate Européenne Multi-Missions (FREMM) frigate Provence - which is on a five-month inaugural deployment prior to commissioning - Rear Adm Morio de l'Isle noted that about 700,000 French citizens reside in the region, which also accounts for more than 30% of France's international trade.

http://www.janes.com/article/58688/france-is-committed-to-asia-pacific-presence-says-senior-officer

Not only did the Klutzes in Beijing not anticipate a formal contest over the law in a court, they did not anticipate the global reaction to their aggressions against the global economy, its lines of transport and communication especially. So now the Europeans are getting involved.

CCP Klutzes have the support of Zimbabwe and Russia while Asean led by the Philippines at The Hague have the law behind 'em. Not to mention the US Navy along with a few other navies.

CCP Klutzes are in over their heads. The great risk and danger is that they still have no clue of it.

Your warmongering rhetoric is on the intellectual and emotional level of a Hollywood action movie.

It is inflammatory nonsense of the kind dished out daily by the mainstream American media.

The Chinese leaders are ​"Klutzes"? ...compared to whom?...Bush, Blair, the Clintons, Donald Trump?

Are you the guy who drank the whole jug of Kool-Aid at the 4th of July picnic?

Try not to apply Hollywood action movies to real life. Maybe that might help to stop projecting them onto others who you don't like and that you oppose in this SCS contest. The projecting comes from an intellectual deficiency or a cultural deficit concerning the other guy. Sometimes both.

CCP failed completely to anticipate or conceive that a disputant victim country of Asean would go to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague to invoke the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. CCP Klutzes had no notion of it. So here we are.

Those who liked Putin's 'little green men' in Ukraine are loving Xi Jinping's 'little blue men' in the SCS.

CCP leaders are no better, smarter, wiser, than anyone mentioned in the post. They're not even smarter than Donald Trump. And CCP fanboyz have no clue to the large number of coarse CCP Donald Trumps running around inside the CCP's huge ZhongNanHai (Kremlin-like compound) in Beijing a few blocks from Tiananmen Square and next to the Forbidden City.

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CCP Klutzes in Beijing never anticipated a judicial involvement in their ongoing SCS belligerence, bellicosity, aggressions over the decades, even after the UNCLOS became effective in 1994. Yet here we have the UN sponsored Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, created in 1895, examining the International Laws of the Sea and the CCP denial of it.

France is committed to Asia-Pacific presence, says senior officer

The Mistral-class amphibious assault ship Dixmude, berthed at Singapore's Changi Naval Base during a five-month deployment to the region in April 2015. Source: IHS/Kelvin Wong

French Navy Rear Admiral Bernard-Antoine Morio de l'Isle, who holds overall operational responsibility for the Pacific as well as for any naval assets operating in the region, asserted that the country is committed to protecting its citizens and economic interests in the Asia-Pacific region.

Speaking at Singapore's Changi Naval Base aboard the navy's second Aquitaine-class Frégate Européenne Multi-Missions (FREMM) frigate Provence - which is on a five-month inaugural deployment prior to commissioning - Rear Adm Morio de l'Isle noted that about 700,000 French citizens reside in the region, which also accounts for more than 30% of France's international trade.

http://www.janes.com/article/58688/france-is-committed-to-asia-pacific-presence-says-senior-officer

Not only did the Klutzes in Beijing not anticipate a formal contest over the law in a court, they did not anticipate the global reaction to their aggressions against the global economy, its lines of transport and communication especially. So now the Europeans are getting involved.

CCP Klutzes have the support of Zimbabwe and Russia while Asean led by the Philippines at The Hague have the law behind 'em. Not to mention the US Navy along with a few other navies.

CCP Klutzes are in over their heads. The great risk and danger is that they still have no clue of it.

Your warmongering rhetoric is on the intellectual and emotional level of a Hollywood action movie.

It is inflammatory nonsense of the kind dished out daily by the mainstream American media.

The Chinese leaders are ​"Klutzes"? ...compared to whom?...Bush, Blair, the Clintons, Donald Trump?

Are you the guy who drank the whole jug of Kool-Aid at the 4th of July picnic?

Actually, Publicus has a pretty good grasp of things outside the borders of the US. It's domestic issues where his analysis breaks down and goes off the rails.

SecDef Ashton Carter is in a sense auditioning for an indefinite extension of his contract by the next Potus. If you might think HR Clinton likes the military option you may be right. Ash the hawk and Hill the tuff nut have a lot to go forward with.

(Michele Flournoy is probably going to have to wait a while to become first woman SecDef cause Ash Carter has the rock solid support of the Democratic party hawks who are now in charge in Washington, the 'doves' having failed in their kumbaya approach to the bonehead CCP Dictators. Potus Hillary Clinton won't have any more reset buttons for Putin either).

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Beijing will slow down soon enough ...the media hype is all over the place....will calm down soon for the businesses to hammer out the deals.

Sure, now that Beijing has commandeered another chunk of property, it will slow down. It slowed down after Tibet. Now, it will slow down after the Spratlys. That's a comforting thought.

Then later, the panda will stir, sit up, look around for more places to commandeer. Hmmmm, there are a lot of islands and atolls stretching out into the Pacific. Hmmm, wonder if any have resources needed by over a billion Hans?

They have started buying up the islands in Fiji ....there are a lot of new vacation clubs opening offices in Beijing & Shanghai listing islands for sale....I guess they will link them up soon and call it Fujian or something.

Starts from 1.5 USD million onwards...have a look Boomer.

BTW the best restaurant as recommended in Vanuatu by the foreign minister is at the top of hill ...opened up by a Chinese who migrated there 25 years ago...i would agree the food there is great. No sharks fin on their menu.

BTW the best restaurant as recommended in Vanuatu by the foreign minister is at the top of hill

How nice. saai.gif

Vanuatu is of course one of the eight governments supporting CCP in opposition to the ILOS (40 governments have endorsed the Arbitral Tribunal whatever the outcome).

Does the post btw relate somehow to what your PLA Navy eats while it's in the South China Sea? (Where are the paid CCP 'half-yuan' fifty cents per posters around here cause all we got instead is a loyalist troll reporting on CCP banquets and vaguely referencing each new grand design to nowhere).

Related is that CCP is openly violating the UNCLOS by destroying coral reefs and other marine life in its building of artificial islands, which is another true charge included in the filing by the Philippines at the PCA. CCP is gonna take gas on this violation too.

So Lawrence, what's the next confidential never to be seen or heard of CCP genius plan to restore the oceans and seas once CCP Dictators demolish 'em, one by one.

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I have heard on the grape vine that if China keeps this sort of behaviour up Pitcairn Islands is going to declare war on them and put them in their place. They're about to have a can of whip arse opened on them.

The country is busy scrambling their navy reserves and can be seen in this shot preparing to launch the vessel to travel to the South China Sea to sort the situation out, apparently.

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

The photo thx blasts out the margins on my page.

My page with the photo of the distinguished group of descendants now goes three feet off the screen to the right.

Beijing is meanwhile three light years distant from the 21st century.

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It would be interesting to get a glimpse or what the inner circle (the several older Han men) who steer the entire political arena, .....are considering re; expanding their empire.

We joke about them sending their tentacles further into the Pacific region, but it could prove to be no joking matter. There are many principalities, atolls, sea-mounts out there. Chinese insiders (always secretive) have surely identified each, and have designs to covet some.

China, with its powerful military, charm offenses, and willingness to pay any price (in money, gifts, biz deals) has shown its zeal in spreading like ..........

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Aren't' they like Thailand...they have a hand-me-down Russian aircraft carrier with no planes? cheesy.gif

they also have a billion or so people who would turn kamikaze at the drop of a hat!.......adds a little something to an inferior few ships!..

keep in mind the US has not won a war since ww2..........

United States has not fought an air-sea war in an ocean or sea since, well, World War 2.

CCP are not the Taliban in Aftghanistan, nor are CCP al Queda here or there, and CCP are not ISIS in the vast and miserable desert where lunatics of all three major theistic religions slaughter one another endlessly and since the beginning of time.

This is China in the South China Sea where Asean countries have 131,000 km of shore with the Sea while CCP has 1300 km of it. It's the East China Sea opposite Japan, and it's the Indian Ocean which Xi Jinping told the India PM last year "is not Indian."

Th CCP attitude of what's China is China's and what's yours is China's isn't real if it ever was real. This is an air-sea and undersea contest soon to be a confrontation -- a confrontation due to a completely wrongheaded attitude and systems of ancient beliefs and petrified values in Beijing.

CCP, the neighbor from hell.

Take a poll from the middle eastern countries USA has meddled in and see how popular a neighbour you are.....results may well shock you :-)

United States is in North America.

The distance between Miami Florida and Cairo Egypt is for instance 10,460 km or 6,491 miles.

ME and USA are not neighbors nor are they in a same neighborhood -- not geographically nor in any respect (or sense).

CCP Dictators in Beijing are the neighbors of Asean, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia/NZ, and down the block and around the corner from India. Not only are CCP Dictators in Beijing in this neighborhood, they are the classic instance of the neighbors from hell.

Btw this poster concluded long ago, confirmed in this thread, that you have nothing to say in these matters that are of any relevance, significance, substance, or that is material to the issues. As your "Comrade P' I wanted you to know that.

Edited by Publicus
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Beijing will slow down soon enough ...the media hype is all over the place....will calm down soon for the businesses to hammer out the deals.

Sure, now that Beijing has commandeered another chunk of property, it will slow down. It slowed down after Tibet. Now, it will slow down after the Spratlys. That's a comforting thought.

Then later, the panda will stir, sit up, look around for more places to commandeer. Hmmmm, there are a lot of islands and atolls stretching out into the Pacific. Hmmm, wonder if any have resources needed by over a billion Hans?

They have started buying up the islands in Fiji ....there are a lot of new vacation clubs opening offices in Beijing & Shanghai listing islands for sale....I guess they will link them up soon and call it Fujian or something.

Starts from 1.5 USD million onwards...have a look Boomer.

BTW the best restaurant as recommended in Vanuatu by the foreign minister is at the top of hill ...opened up by a Chinese who migrated there 25 years ago...i would agree the food there is great. No sharks fin on their menu.

BTW the best restaurant as recommended in Vanuatu by the foreign minister is at the top of hill

How nice. saai.gif

Vanuatu is of course one of the eight governments supporting CCP in opposition to the ILOS (40 governments have endorsed the Arbitral Tribunal whatever the outcome).

Does the post btw relate somehow to what your PLA Navy eats while it's in the South China Sea? (Where are the paid CCP 'half-yuan' fifty cents per posters around here cause all we got instead is a loyalist troll reporting on CCP banquets and vaguely referencing each new grand design to nowhere).

Related is that CCP is openly violating the UNCLOS by destroying coral reefs and other marine life in its building of artificial islands, which is another true charge included in the filing by the Philippines at the PCA. CCP is gonna take gas on this violation too.

So Lawrence, what's the next confidential never to be seen or heard of CCP genius plan to restore the oceans and seas once CCP Dictators demolish 'em, one by one.

It's strange for someone that comes out with all this star wars talk and deafon whatever and star shield that you cannot figure this one out....why the pacific islands are being courted.

In the south, there are a lot of environmentalists like me....it's hard to swim against the crowds at times as development committees also carries weight.

Not too much different from many developed countries / superpowers where PETA, greenpeace struggle against your politicians . However there are are detractors who like to bash China irregardless of what they do ; hence my constant advice at the committees is ignore and head back to the doctrine books for the care of the bigger community first.

Eventually and this is no secret as long as you have done business on a big scale, you can see the patterns coming already ....reading military journals is one source reading business journals may give another perspective.

My wide ask me why the Chinese are all over the north ...boomer stays up in CR where there are even a bigger presence...I tell her think of these like your army scouts ....these are the point men ...they can take hardship, they come in, integrate , learn the Thai language and see the business opportunities ....where are the logistics point, they make their recommendations through the committees and start buying up the network, transport, logistics etc ...eventually Indochina will take a new meaning as the rice bowl of China and hence why Mekong river control is so important.

No different from the Japanese during WWII except the Chinese wont be killing anyone along the way....just an army of traders who are going down the routes of their ancestors.....a new batch of CP, Salims, Kweks and Sri Tan. The Japanese actually are the early blazers on this routing in the 70s to 90s and lost momentum because they got cocky and thought the Honda.s Toyotas and Suzukis factories here is enough for them.....and then the Chinese appeared.

there is a whole bunch of us capitalists Chinese who are influential and heading to protect the environments to minimise the damage but it's a few against the world right ? ....besides the Scandinavian region and NZ region where these things take a real head in terms of protection....the rest of the urban areas are very hard to quantify as all are responsible for creating garbage and it took me 3 years here to show my family how to recycle properly and this is a family of only 5 in Thailand as throwing seems to be the norm here.

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Beijing will slow down soon enough ...the media hype is all over the place....will calm down soon for the businesses to hammer out the deals.

Sure, now that Beijing has commandeered another chunk of property, it will slow down. It slowed down after Tibet. Now, it will slow down after the Spratlys. That's a comforting thought.

Then later, the panda will stir, sit up, look around for more places to commandeer. Hmmmm, there are a lot of islands and atolls stretching out into the Pacific. Hmmm, wonder if any have resources needed by over a billion Hans?

They have started buying up the islands in Fiji ....there are a lot of new vacation clubs opening offices in Beijing & Shanghai listing islands for sale....I guess they will link them up soon and call it Fujian or something.

Starts from 1.5 USD million onwards...have a look Boomer.

BTW the best restaurant as recommended in Vanuatu by the foreign minister is at the top of hill ...opened up by a Chinese who migrated there 25 years ago...i would agree the food there is great. No sharks fin on their menu.

Good of you to bring up the shark fins again. Earlier you stated that because hotel don't serve shark fins, and that tiny soi restaurants don't serve them, therefore there is no problem. I replied by noting that luxury seafood restaurants aren't only to be found in hotels. Got no reply from you. It seems in your world that if it isn't found in a Chinese hotel, then it doesn't exist.

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It would be interesting to get a glimpse or what the inner circle (the several older Han men) who steer the entire political arena, .....are considering re; expanding their empire.

We joke about them sending their tentacles further into the Pacific region, but it could prove to be no joking matter. There are many principalities, atolls, sea-mounts out there. Chinese insiders (always secretive) have surely identified each, and have designs to covet some.

China, with its powerful military, charm offenses, and willingness to pay any price (in money, gifts, biz deals) has shown its zeal in spreading like ..........

The inner circle is actually known, you can google them. Not all of them are old and not all are Han Chinese. All have attended good universities and

Your second paragraph is right because heading to the pacific islands has already been done and not a joke, serious investments there by key capitalists who are making their cash money in America.

We don't covet them, we are putting them in a bigger scale of plans and yes like Steve Jobs and other successful people, we have learnt being introverted and keeping your mouth shut is the best way to do business so while it looks secretive it really is not, just keeping the business advantage.

I suggest you watch happier movies like Charlie Brown which my 5 year old is playing day & night now...it's the movie of the week.....much happier and more positive ;-) Enjoy Sunday Mr Brown !

Edited by LawrenceChee
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I don't have a problem with Chinese businesspeople traveling around - to make biz deals. Some of the deals will be underhanded (like duping a farmer to sell his property far below market value, and then putting up a luxury hotel). Those sorts of wheeling dealings happen everywhere.

What I do have a problem with is taking other peoples' or countries' properties. That's what has been happening, clandestinely, for the past 20 years, in the SCS. The problems in the SCS are not businesses taking advantage of dim-witted and/or flummoxed locals. It's the country of China commandeering other countries' territories and calling them their own.

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May I remind people the thread is not about shark fins, restaurants, buying up property or clandestinely integrating others societies to take control of them.

The thread title and topic are:

Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea

This stuff...

China%20South%20China%20Sea.JPEG

In this Friday, July 8, 2016 photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese missile frigate Yuncheng

launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the waters near south China's Hainan Island

and Paracel Islands. They are controlled by Beijing but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. China's

navy is holding a week of military drills around the disputed islands ahead of a ruling by an international

tribunal in a case filed by the Philippines challenging China's claim to most of the South China Sea.

China is boycotting the case before The Hague-based court and says it will not accept the verdict.

Xinhua via AP Zha Chunming

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html

Don't see any restaurants around.

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May I remind people the thread is not about shark fins, restaurants, buying up property or clandestinely integrating others societies to take control of them.

The thread title and topic are:

Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea

This stuff...

China%20South%20China%20Sea.JPEG

In this Friday, July 8, 2016 photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese missile frigate Yuncheng

launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the waters near south China's Hainan Island

and Paracel Islands. They are controlled by Beijing but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. China's

navy is holding a week of military drills around the disputed islands ahead of a ruling by an international

tribunal in a case filed by the Philippines challenging China's claim to most of the South China Sea.

China is boycotting the case before The Hague-based court and says it will not accept the verdict.

Xinhua via AP Zha Chunming

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html#storylink=cpy

Don't see any restaurants around.

True....what were your 7th fleet firing in SCS in exercises with Japan, Korea etc ?

Popsicles in exercises ? If Chinese ships and Russian ships start calling close to San Diego for joint exercises....U can bet your entire fleet will get deployed back and start exercises too right because you feel something is not right ? This is ramping up military tension and the USA are great at that. Making mountains out of molehills.

The threat here for ASEAN is loosing out of a lucrative trade deals that is due to them , not a military invasion.

Edited by LawrenceChee
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Perhaps I'm alone in taking a dispassionate anthropological perspective of this, but what's happening is perfectly understandable.

Nations are arbitrary lines on a map, subject to change due to population pressures. The lines are even more arbitrary over the sea. China has a huge population and rapidly expanding economy. The South China Sea is a completely unutilised resource - the little nations around it have done nothing to develop it or defend their claim, and can't really afford to. China has the might and the money to do so.

Isn't there's an unwritten law of history that says unutilsed resources de facto belong to those able to develop them?

We have got used to the idea that history has stopped, the lines are now fixed, but the reality is that some parts are still in a state of flux. Yes, China is being thuggish - it's economic lebensraum for them - but movements on a historical scale never worry about that.

China has basically won this, and it's not worth going to war over so the rest of the world had better yield gently and learn the lesson: if you have a resource, utilise it before someone else does.

Edit: just to add: the Falkland Islands are a fairly comparable example.

Perhaps I'm alone in taking a dispassionate anthropological perspective of this

Not alone anthropologically but definitely alone to claim being 'dispassionate.'

For one thing, Falkland/Malvinas have no relation to CCP in the SCS.

SCS for instance has never belonged to anyone much less to China and Falklands did not involve ten countries such as Asean or the USA directly or the UNCLOS. Falkans are remote godforsaken islands not worth one human life whereas SCS is a $5 Trillion annual international waterway to include several archipelagos and vital trade routes between the ME and South/East Asia. The SCS dispute involves directly several US formal mutual defense treaty partners/allies whereas the Falklands are an isolated and meaningless remnant and relic of the British Empire. The Falkans are proximate to the South Pole whereas the SCS is at the Equator. Etc. The claim in the post is astoundingly waaay off and wild.

Anthropologically one needs to address the CCP building on the Confucian strong implication the Chinese are a race apart from everyone else, and that the Chinese race did not originate in Africa. CCP teaches the minority multigenesis regionally based belief the Chinese originated and developed in China only...in Asia only. That the Chinese originated and developed where they are, and that the Chinese have no genetic contact whatsoever with Africa.

CCP teaches the Chinese are the Chinese and have nothing to do with Africa -- that the cultural historical evidence proves from the long standing Chinese point of view currently being exploited by CCP in their own interest....

[F]or many the disbelief in an African origin lies in the notion that the Chinese, with its unique and illustrious history, the longest continuing civilization in the world, and the creator of some of the greatest inventions ever, could fundamentally be “non-Chinese” in any way.

Professor Frank Dikötter, Chair Professor of Humanities at the University of Hong Kong and author of The Discourse of Race in Modern China, believes that intellectualism can be strongly influenced by a cultural context, noting a similar resistance in the West to the multiple origins theory in the 19th century,

“Monogenesis until recently was a view with its own cultural background. In China ...thinkers, likely influenced by strong Confucianism, says Professor Dikötter, “insisted that Africans and Europeans came from one single origin, but that the Chinese were completely different.” The discovery at Zhoukoudian several decades later reinforced this view: “Chinese scientists took it to be proof that China is one long line of uninterrupted descent.”

http://www.theworldofchinese.com/article/the-peking-man-delusion/

Ask a CCP Chinese if they have any genes that originated in Africa and they'll dismiss you outright as wrong, wrong, wrong.

Which is related to the SCS in that CCP have promised to make China great again. CCP Chinese will tell you that Its territorial aggression in the SCS against Asean and in the East Sea against Japan are not aggressions, that they are the rightful and naturally due assertions of China's rightful place over the rest of 'em. The Central Kingdom stuff. Make the Central Kingdom great again.

CCP believes it does not need or want partner countries or allies. CCP sees the problem of Germany between the 20th century wars as having been wrong on two major counts: one, that it was a superior race and, secondly, that it was too small a country and population to conquer the world. Additionally, Nazi Germany took a military approach prematurely, i.e., before it was adequately armed to take on the world.

SCS is about making China great again. Some people seem to have no awareness of the CCP Dictators and their thinking, intents, purposes. CCP will likely fire the first shot in the SCS...it's just they will try to make it look like USA fired the first shot. No difference because what matters is who fires the last shot and CCP has never had much success at doing well at any such undertakings.

Now is the time, not later as you wrongly insist.

Edited by Publicus
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Perhaps I'm alone in taking a dispassionate anthropological perspective of this

Not alone anthropologically but definitely alone to claim being 'dispassionate.'

For one thing, Falkland/Malvinas have no relation to CCP in the SCS.

SCS for instance has never belonged to anyone much less to China and Falklands did not involve ten countries such as Asean or the USA directly or the UNCLOS. Falkans are remote godforsaken islands not worth one human life whereas SCS is a $5 Trillion annual international waterway to include several archipelagos and vital trade routes between the ME and South/East Asia. The SCS dispute involves directly several US formal mutual defense treaty partners/allies whereas the Falklands are an isolated and meaningless remnant and relic of the British Empire. The Falkans are proximate to the South Pole whereas the SCS is at the Equator. Etc. The claim in the post is astoundingly waaay off and wild.

Anthropologically one needs to address the CCP building on the Confucian strong implication the Chinese are a race apart from everyone else, and that the Chinese race did not originate in Africa. CCP teaches the minority multigenesis regionally based belief the Chinese originated and developed in China only...in Asia only. That the Chinese originated and developed where they are, and that the Chinese have no genetic contact whatsoever with Africa.

CCP teaches the Chinese are the Chinese and have nothing to do with Africa -- that the cultural historical evidence proves from the long standing Chinese point of view currently being exploited by CCP in their own interest....

[F]or many the disbelief in an African origin lies in the notion that the Chinese, with its unique and illustrious history, the longest continuing civilization in the world, and the creator of some of the greatest inventions ever, could fundamentally be “non-Chinese” in any way.

Professor Frank Dikötter, Chair Professor of Humanities at the University of Hong Kong and author of The Discourse of Race in Modern China, believes that intellectualism can be strongly influenced by a cultural context, noting a similar resistance in the West to the multiple origins theory in the 19th century,

“Monogenesis until recently was a view with its own cultural background. In China ...thinkers, likely influenced by strong Confucianism, says Professor Dikötter, “insisted that Africans and Europeans came from one single origin, but that the Chinese were completely different.” The discovery at Zhoukoudian several decades later reinforced this view: “Chinese scientists took it to be proof that China is one long line of uninterrupted descent.”

http://www.theworldofchinese.com/article/the-peking-man-delusion/

Ask a CCP Chinese if they have any genes that originated in Africa and they'll dismiss you outright as wrong, wrong, wrong.

Which is related to the SCS in that CCP have promised to make China great again. CCP Chinese will tell you that Its territorial aggression in the SCS against Asean and in the East Sea against Japan are not aggressions, that they are the rightful and naturally due assertions of China's rightful place over the rest of 'em. The Central Kingdom stuff. Make the Central Kingdom great again.

CCP believes it does not need or want partner countries or allies. CCP sees the problem of Germany between the 20th century wars as having been wrong on two major counts: one, that it was a superior race and, secondly, that it was too small a country and population to conquer the world. Additionally, Nazi Germany took a military approach prematurely, i.e., before it was adequately armed to take on the world.

SCS is about making China great again. Some people seem to have no awareness of the CCP Dictators and their thinking, intents, purposes. CCP will likely fire the first shot in the SCS...it's just they will try to make it look like USA fired the first shot. No difference because what matters is who fires the last shot and CCP has never had much success at doing well at any such undertakings.

Now is the time, not later as you wrongly insist.

You took me literally about 'anthropology' - I merely meant a perspective beyond that of the historical record, as most opinions are erroneously based on the experiences of living memory.

The monogenesis thing just sounds like Fascism 101 to me. Pride is only the proximate reason. The real force is the shifting tectonic plates of human expansion - too big for the man on the street, or even the politicians, to comprehend.

You diss the Falklands comparison, but the comparison is in the morality of that occupation, not the economics - and the morality of it is precisely the same. (In any case, just to quibble, the Falklands are a sizeable chunk of real estate that can support a population - as remote as it is, I imagine the Chinese would exchange it, and the surrounding waters, for the fished-out Spratleys in an instant.)

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May I remind people the thread is not about shark fins, restaurants, buying up property or clandestinely integrating others societies to take control of them.

The thread title and topic are:

Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea

This stuff...

In this Friday, July 8, 2016 photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese missile frigate Yuncheng

launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the waters near south China's Hainan Island

and Paracel Islands. They are controlled by Beijing but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. China's

navy is holding a week of military drills around the disputed islands ahead of a ruling by an international

tribunal in a case filed by the Philippines challenging China's claim to most of the South China Sea.

China is boycotting the case before The Hague-based court and says it will not accept the verdict.

Xinhua via AP Zha Chunming

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html#storylink=cpy

Don't see any restaurants around.

True....what were your 7th fleet firing in SCS in exercises with Japan, Korea etc ?

Popsicles in exercises ? If Chinese ships and Russian ships start calling close to San Diego for joint exercises....U can bet your entire fleet will get deployed back and start exercises too right because you feel something is not right ? This is ramping up military tension and the USA are great at that. Making mountains out of molehills.

The threat here for ASEAN is loosing out of a lucrative trade deals that is due to them , not a military invasion.

The threat here for ASEAN is loosing out of a lucrative trade deals that is due to them , not a military invasion.

Well Lawrence you do in fact have some value as a point of contrast, as one who puts himself wide open to being foiled again. Of course no Asean country expects a CCP military invasion...it hasn't happened since a very lame PLA invaded Vietnam in 1979, but only briefly as they were stung pretty severely.

CCP have instead been working relentlessly to dismantle Asean.

The effective action was in Cambodia in 2012 at the Asean annual meeting when CCP with host Hun Sen nullified completely the Asean-initiated Code of Conduct CCP had signed with Asean ten years earlier. That was also when CCP and Hun Sen killed the Asean-proposed Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties on the South China Sea, which attempted to expand and further refine the original CoC.

Twenty years of Asean initiated SCS negotiations with CCP shredded.

The Asean foreign ministers meeting July 21st in Laos will either sink Asean in the SCS contest or it will reassert the centrality of Asean in the disputes.

As noted the other day by Yanmei Xie, senior China analysis of the International Crisis Group, writing in the China File of the Asia Society in New York...

A weakened ASEAN would skew the power asymmetry further in Beijing’s favor in South China Sea negotiations, but could undermine China’s broader strategic interests. Losing confidence in China’s sincerity or ASEAN’s ability to achieve equitable outcomes through diplomacy, many Southeast Asian nations are already making more room for Washington and could follow Manila’s footsteps to seek legal recourse.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/xie-the-south-china-sea-needs-asean-more-than-ever.aspx

http://www.chinafile.com/viewpoint/south-china-sea-needs-asean-more-ever

Talking about a PLA invasion of an Asean country or countries is ludicrous and wasting people's time.

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It is not new for a country's Navy to announce exercises in a defined area of a sea or ocean to advise or to warn civilian and merchant ships and aircraft during the time period, to include the warships of other nations that might be interested to take a look in one way or the other.

However, the notice by the CCP in Beijing to the world does present a problem....

"SOUTH CHINA SEA MILITARY EXERCISES IN AREA BOUNDED BY THE LINES,” read the notice.
“ENTERING PROHIBITED.”

map%20lockie.png

Turns out however requiring or demanding that ships or planes not enter the defined area is a violation of the ILOS, as indicated below by an expert in the Law of Naval Warfare at the U.S. Naval War College.

Chinese-Navy.jpg?zoom=1.5&resize=625%2C4

PLA Navy warships move to position for exercises in the South China Sea, Saturday, July 9, 2016.

Chinese Military South China Sea ‘No Sail’ Zone Not a New Move

U.S. Naval War College professor and maritime law expert James Kraska told USNI News on Thursday declaration of a zone and unilaterally restricting access to international water by Beijing was a violation of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention.

“States such as China may declare a naval exercise zone, and issue a Notice to Airmen and a Notice to Mariners to alert other ships and aircraft of the heightened hazards and recommending — but not requiring — that foreign ships and aircraft steer clear,” Kraska said.

“Ships and aircraft are not required to remain outside such zones and force may not be used against such entities merely because they entered the zone.”

https://news.usni.org/2016/07/07/chinese-military-south-china-sea-no-sail-zone-nothing-new

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May I remind people the thread is not about shark fins, restaurants, buying up property or clandestinely integrating others societies to take control of them.

The thread title and topic are:

Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea

This stuff...

In this Friday, July 8, 2016 photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese missile frigate Yuncheng

launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the waters near south China's Hainan Island

and Paracel Islands. They are controlled by Beijing but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. China's

navy is holding a week of military drills around the disputed islands ahead of a ruling by an international

tribunal in a case filed by the Philippines challenging China's claim to most of the South China Sea.

China is boycotting the case before The Hague-based court and says it will not accept the verdict.

Xinhua via AP Zha Chunming

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html#storylink=cpy

Don't see any restaurants around.

True....what were your 7th fleet firing in SCS in exercises with Japan, Korea etc ?

Popsicles in exercises ? If Chinese ships and Russian ships start calling close to San Diego for joint exercises....U can bet your entire fleet will get deployed back and start exercises too right because you feel something is not right ? This is ramping up military tension and the USA are great at that. Making mountains out of molehills.

The threat here for ASEAN is loosing out of a lucrative trade deals that is due to them , not a military invasion.

The threat here for ASEAN is loosing out of a lucrative trade deals that is due to them , not a military invasion.

Well Lawrence you do in fact have some value as a point of contrast, as one who puts himself wide open to being foiled again. Of course no Asean country expects a CCP military invasion...it hasn't happened since a very lame PLA invaded Vietnam in 1979, but only briefly as they were stung pretty severely.

CCP have instead been working relentlessly to dismantle Asean.

The effective action was in Cambodia in 2012 at the Asean annual meeting when CCP with host Hun Sen nullified completely the Asean-initiated Code of Conduct CCP had signed with Asean ten years earlier. That was also when CCP and Hun Sen killed the Asean-proposed Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties on the South China Sea, which attempted to expand and further refine the original CoC.

Twenty years of Asean initiated SCS negotiations with CCP shredded.

The Asean foreign ministers meeting July 21st in Laos will either sink Asean in the SCS contest or it will reassert the centrality of Asean in the disputes.

As noted the other day by Yanmei Xie, senior China analysis of the International Crisis Group, writing in the China File of the Asia Society in New York...

A weakened ASEAN would skew the power asymmetry further in Beijings favor in South China Sea negotiations, but could undermine Chinas broader strategic interests. Losing confidence in Chinas sincerity or ASEANs ability to achieve equitable outcomes through diplomacy, many Southeast Asian nations are already making more room for Washington and could follow Manilas footsteps to seek legal recourse.[/size]

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/xie-the-south-china-sea-needs-asean-more-than-ever.aspx

http://www.chinafile.com/viewpoint/south-china-sea-needs-asean-more-ever

Talking about a PLA invasion of an Asean country or countries is ludicrous and wasting people's time.

I think here Comrade P you may have difficulty understanding ASEAN or Asians as a whole.

If you could tell what has ASEAN do for the integration of the region , free flow of people movements etc ..you will find that ASEAN is so diverse they were never a united front.

Malaysia & Indonesia were always pushing for Muslims interests, Singapore wanted free trade only and not aiding the poor Asean neighbours beyond free students to a selected group ion students annually , Myanmar was always under military rule and not an active partner except for the biannual SEA games where they give the Thais a good run for the soccer champions. Vietnam was always closer to Russia, and Laos & Cambodia was too poor to contribute anything useful to the bloc except ask for aid which Singapore is against. Brunei is remotely in the region but beyond gas is not connected much. Thailand as we know it is in their own road path of managing what's best for them. Philippines has tons of OFW but not much to ASEAN beyond maids / nurse and recently expanded to hospitality folks to Singapore etc. Each ASEAN country has continues with their own immigration policies and entry requirements although for tourism it's open to all ...but not much of an impact as any foreign passport can get you that too.

The group of 10 countries has over the years created not much of an impact and all countries have signed different things with APEC, trade groups etc that will provide the individual countries with benefits and not the bloc.

hence China has never came in to divide them but could understand them as an Asian country not to go in with unicorn ideas that the region will ever engage any partners as whole. Hence China has always favoured the one country negotiation approach...you don't get it but it does not mean it does not work...

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Publicus, you're right about Chinese teaching things wrong re; Chinese originating in China. A Chinese researcher actually tested that theory scientifically (unusual in China, where many of their 'scientific beliefs' are based on common/cultural beliefs, rather than hard science). He took samples from dozens of ethnic groups throughout China, including Tibet. He found a genetic marker in every sample which proved; Chinese (like people everywhere outside of Africa) stem from African origins.

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LC: "China has always favoured the one country negotiation approach..."

I don't know about 'always.' But it's understandable for China to want unilateral discussions re; the problems it created in the SCS.

If dealing with countries individually, China can strike deals with those who are pliable, and keep working at deals with others. All negotiations will take place behind closed doors (minimal interaction with general public and no votes by public) and all will involve money. How much needs to be paid? What sorts of concessions need to be made? No problem. China will be glad to negotiate about all those issues.

Yet, Fil and VN and other players know there's more strength in numbers.

China also doesn't mind time passing by. The more time wasted, the better for China.

The #1 thing China wants; is to have it widely accepted that China owns the territory in dispute.

That's why China will soon be even angrier and more frustrated than it is now. Because when the Int'l community officially/formally finds China DOES NOT OWN the disputed territories, the whole game changes.

The chances of China backing down on its bully stance (without being forced) are zero. That's why the SCS will likely result in military conflict.

p.s. that Chinese ship firing a missile: How may shots did it take to get a nice straight trajectory suitable for publishing the nicest looking photo? 10? 20?

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Publicus, you're right about Chinese teaching things wrong re; Chinese originating in China. A Chinese researcher actually tested that theory scientifically (unusual in China, where many of their 'scientific beliefs' are based on common/cultural beliefs, rather than hard science). He took samples from dozens of ethnic groups throughout China, including Tibet. He found a genetic marker in every sample which proved; Chinese (like people everywhere outside of Africa) stem from African origins.

Anyone that has VPN in China except Comrade P has already figured that one out...some of us are Christians and we believe we come from God and not Africa DNA gene....so that makes us all wrong ?

Strange when it comes to views on China, some are decidedly one sided and want to paint the Chinese as oppressed and disconnected from the world when they just cannot or maybe don't know how to download the free app on their smartphones and just activate it...it's free !

Just type "free VPN" in your apple store or google play store....install it and viola be like the millions of Chinese accessing Netflix, update your facebook page and be an instagram queen....tweet like Trump.

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LC: "China has always favoured the one country negotiation approach..."

I don't know about 'always.' But it's understandable for China to want unilateral discussions re; the problems it created in the SCS.

If dealing with countries individually, China can strike deals with those who are pliable, and keep working at deals with others. All negotiations will take place behind closed doors (minimal interaction with general public and no votes by public) and all will involve money. How much needs to be paid? What sorts of concessions need to be made? No problem. China will be glad to negotiate about all those issues.

Yet, Fil and VN and other players know there's more strength in numbers.

China also doesn't mind time passing by. The more time wasted, the better for China.

The #1 thing China wants; is to have it widely accepted that China owns the territory in dispute.

That's why China will soon be even angrier and more frustrated than it is now. Because when the Int'l community officially/formally finds China DOES NOT OWN the disputed territories, the whole game changes.

The chances of China backing down on its bully stance (without being forced) are zero. That's why the SCS will likely result in military conflict.

p.s. that Chinese ship firing a missile: How may shots did it take to get a nice straight trajectory suitable for publishing the nicest looking photo? 10? 20?

The last P/s note is why the USA repeatedly gets whacked in the middle east and Asia...they just like to underestimate their foes and think they are the best....how many tomahawks misfired from its target in ME during the Iraq war at a million a pop ? How fanciful was that shot for CNN or for those who approved the missile purchase plans ?

How did Yamashita dupe Percival into surrendering Singapore in WWII when he was out of ammunition and heavily outnumbered by the Allies forces ? How did the Japanese outwit the pacific fleet in Hawaii ? Painful lessons that technology is not the only thing that win wars....the minds do.

Edited by LawrenceChee
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May I remind people the thread is not about shark fins, restaurants, buying up property or clandestinely integrating others societies to take control of them.

The thread title and topic are:

Beijing begins military exercise in South China Sea

This stuff...

In this Friday, July 8, 2016 photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese missile frigate Yuncheng

launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the waters near south China's Hainan Island

and Paracel Islands. They are controlled by Beijing but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. China's

navy is holding a week of military drills around the disputed islands ahead of a ruling by an international

tribunal in a case filed by the Philippines challenging China's claim to most of the South China Sea.

China is boycotting the case before The Hague-based court and says it will not accept the verdict.

Xinhua via AP Zha Chunming

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/world/article88646772.html#storylink=cpy

Don't see any restaurants around.

True....what were your 7th fleet firing in SCS in exercises with Japan, Korea etc ?

Popsicles in exercises ? If Chinese ships and Russian ships start calling close to San Diego for joint exercises....U can bet your entire fleet will get deployed back and start exercises too right because you feel something is not right ? This is ramping up military tension and the USA are great at that. Making mountains out of molehills.

The threat here for ASEAN is loosing out of a lucrative trade deals that is due to them , not a military invasion.

The threat here for ASEAN is loosing out of a lucrative trade deals that is due to them , not a military invasion.

Well Lawrence you do in fact have some value as a point of contrast, as one who puts himself wide open to being foiled again. Of course no Asean country expects a CCP military invasion...it hasn't happened since a very lame PLA invaded Vietnam in 1979, but only briefly as they were stung pretty severely.

CCP have instead been working relentlessly to dismantle Asean.

The effective action was in Cambodia in 2012 at the Asean annual meeting when CCP with host Hun Sen nullified completely the Asean-initiated Code of Conduct CCP had signed with Asean ten years earlier. That was also when CCP and Hun Sen killed the Asean-proposed Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties on the South China Sea, which attempted to expand and further refine the original CoC.

Twenty years of Asean initiated SCS negotiations with CCP shredded.

The Asean foreign ministers meeting July 21st in Laos will either sink Asean in the SCS contest or it will reassert the centrality of Asean in the disputes.

As noted the other day by Yanmei Xie, senior China analysis of the International Crisis Group, writing in the China File of the Asia Society in New York...

A weakened ASEAN would skew the power asymmetry further in Beijings favor in South China Sea negotiations, but could undermine Chinas broader strategic interests. Losing confidence in Chinas sincerity or ASEANs ability to achieve equitable outcomes through diplomacy, many Southeast Asian nations are already making more room for Washington and could follow Manilas footsteps to seek legal recourse.[/size]

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/xie-the-south-china-sea-needs-asean-more-than-ever.aspx

http://www.chinafile.com/viewpoint/south-china-sea-needs-asean-more-ever

Talking about a PLA invasion of an Asean country or countries is ludicrous and wasting people's time.

I think here Comrade P you may have difficulty understanding ASEAN or Asians as a whole.

If you could tell what has ASEAN do for the integration of the region , free flow of people movements etc ..you will find that ASEAN is so diverse they were never a united front.

Malaysia & Indonesia were always pushing for Muslims interests, Singapore wanted free trade only and not aiding the poor Asean neighbours beyond free students to a selected group ion students annually , Myanmar was always under military rule and not an active partner except for the biannual SEA games where they give the Thais a good run for the soccer champions. Vietnam was always closer to Russia, and Laos & Cambodia was too poor to contribute anything useful to the bloc except ask for aid which Singapore is against. Brunei is remotely in the region but beyond gas is not connected much. Thailand as we know it is in their own road path of managing what's best for them. Philippines has tons of OFW but not much to ASEAN beyond maids / nurse and recently expanded to hospitality folks to Singapore etc. Each ASEAN country has continues with their own immigration policies and entry requirements although for tourism it's open to all ...but not much of an impact as any foreign passport can get you that too.

The group of 10 countries has over the years created not much of an impact and all countries have signed different things with APEC, trade groups etc that will provide the individual countries with benefits and not the bloc.

hence China has never came in to divide them but could understand them as an Asian country not to go in with unicorn ideas that the region will ever engage any partners as whole. Hence China has always favoured the one country negotiation approach...you don't get it but it does not mean it does not work...

you will find that ASEAN is so diverse they were never a united front.

Thx much for the presumptuous lecture but you need to know I'd noticed the fact, along with a zillion other fahlang soon after we settled in to the former LOS. CCP are exploiting the fact in its SCS belligerence, bellicosity, aggressions. CCP needs to dismantle Asean so it can get each one of 'em down to one-on-one intimidation, bribery, submission. Asean's only viable alternative to survive is to toss its consensus approach to a least common denominator approach. If it comes down to the ten member states dividing 7-3 or 8-2 whether it might be a formal vote or a recognised difference among the members would not matter, as long as Asean can establish a common position, i.e., a majority-minority one in which the minority doesn't bomb the majority using CCP bombs. This LCD tact would make you sick I know, and you would lecture and scold even more about it, but that is the global consensus of how Asean can survive under the relentless attack of CCP Dictators in Beijing over SCS but in respect of CCP seeking to dominate the region in every way it possibly can.

Beijing called a special meeting of Asean foreign ministers last month in CCP China, in Kunming, to whip Asean into shape on the SCS. Asean rebelled and the reports are that a lot of shouting occurred between several Asean FMs and the CCP deputy FM Beijing sent in with whip and chair in hand. So Malaysia with support leaked the original strong Asean statement CCP had supressed. While not mentioning any country name, the Asean ministers statement said to stop reclamation, island building, militarisation and -- most vitally -- for everyone to respect the PCA ruling (coming Tuesday) in the Philippines case against CCP involving the Spratly islands primarily, but the whole of the SCS territorial situation itself.

The regular Asean foreign ministers meeting will occur July 21 in Laos and CCP and USA will be at that one so the mix is ready for the boiling water to be added. It is agreed globally that if Asean FMs in Laos do not stand up against CCP, Asean will cease to exist as any kind of viable entity, to include the Asean Community inspired (somewhat) by the European Union. CCP Tyrants in Beijing want no Asean of any kind, whether it might be a formal community or its usual photo op.

If Asean dissolves or becomes totally ineffective as a factor, or even as a simple player in the SCS contest, its member states will subdivide for or against each major power, i.e., CCP or USA/Allies/Partners.

A four-way subdividing of the former Asean -- should Asean be in fact dismantled by CCP in Laos -- would likely occur. One grouping would have the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia. Aligned with that would be Singapore and Indonesia each of which have more in common with the first grouping than any possible other grouping. Thailand and Myanmar would be a swing duo between CCP and USA depending on the issue, however, the Thai PM made a definitive statement at the Singapore security conference earlier this year that the UNCLOS must prevail in these disputes. A third grouping would be Cambodia and Laos in the CCP camp solidly and firmly. Brunei, which recently imposed Sharia law, is a claimant that looks more to Vietnam and its ties with Russia than with CCP in Beijing, but Brunei is loathe to associate with the Phils (and thus the USA-India-Australia).

Lecture to me more Lawrence so I can post more thx.

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The foreign ministry in China is clear and consistent with its messaging, the trade balance and the open sea lanes is important and critical to China as it is for the global community.

The recent exercises in SCS is an exercise of rights to USA military actions that are clearly not needed or wanted in this region. China is showing to USA they are not afraid of foreign powers and as a superpower them like Russia, USA should thread carefully how they want to balance out the world matters as all 3 are giants in the political and military arena.

The bottomline issue here is trade and I would assure you the Philippines incoming president is not a thug but a very pragmatic man. If China gives him what he wants, the islands and ruling is inconsequential.

Philippines has no ability to drill for anything and they know it. They do understand with the President council that it is smarter to get royalties for it and this is what they are holding out for in advance of Brunei & Malaysia. Vietnam is the only strategic partner with Russia that has the ability to counter that but it will be interesting how they will do it as they got in a little too late.

Cash is what is needed by the Philippines. The Chinese government will let him do his publicity stunt of jet skiing there and planting a flag as the opening ceremony....ASEAN remains in many ways Chinese dominated and the most richest man in each one of these countries comes from a Chinese heritage...speak with CP in Thailand in Teochew and see if he can converse,...at the end of the day the business environment will prevail and it will not make the small people happy as it seems unfair but the world is rarely fair.

Americans as I have posted earlier has a heart of gold...it just been played and unfortunately wont and has not much strategy beyond military hardware display which is why they are often weak in responses when asked for a long term deal.

If you speak with the Americans now with the Def Secretary who according to Comrade P is as hawiskh as int can get....what will he recommend ? Ramming civilian boats, open fire on what ? and if they do exchange fire what's next ...he probably has no clue

As Chinese former foreign minster quoted today in CNA...the Asians have patience in negotiations and this will prevail in the end....all they really have to do is to wait till Nov when Trump or Clinton wins and becomes the next POTUS...the world is in for a wild ride for the next 4 years as both has the ability to embarrass USA at the world stage. I predict Trump will meet Kim just for the media attention and fall in love with a north korea courtesan and have a half asian baby....that would be news !

It is stupid to think or believe the US does not have a long term plan for the CCP Dictators in Beijing or that it has no plan for the SCS. The PCA case by the Philippines was filed in early 2012 so even though CCP was caught completely by surprise, US and Asean were not surprised by it and have been preparing for the ruling and its immediate fallout for a long time.

It is the CCP Klutzes in Beijing who'd never in the past 20 years considered for a moment their aggressions could or would be brought to an international court of international law.

Dr. Kurt Campbell was AsstSecState who with the then-SecState Hillary Clinton developed the US rebalance to the Pacific-Asia region in economic focus, diplomacy, military security. Putin in Ukraine and in Syria has hampered it, as have Daesh and continuing fighting in Afghanistan. Brexit hasn't helped either.

However, the 'pivot' by the US to the Indian Ocean-Pacific-East Asian geostrategic area goes forward.

Dr. Campbell is a principal foreign policy advisor the the HR Clinton for president campaign, so his comments and analysis are of a significant importance. This is what he said yesterday in respect of the PCA ruling that will be announced Tuesday...

“The outrage and unhappiness in China will not be staged and it’s likely there will be some deployments and active steps taken,” he said. “There is no question there will be a substantial reaction from Beijing.

Dr Campbell believes Beijing could respond by launching naval patrols around, or building military facilities in, areas such as the Scarborough Shoals, which have been traditionally controlled by The Philippines.

“If they did this, it could plunge Asia into crisis,” he said. It would be a further escalation and would create questions about whether China remained committed to a challenging but fruitful relationship with its neighbours.”

He said it would be necessary to send a message to China that military measures would have “very negative consequences for everyone”.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/beijing-tantrum-on-south-china-sea-ruling-looming/news-story/f4f0861050dd805f06bbf90b2557a91b?nk=1d178055ff7a4ffe828cecf7e825e2ab-1468172774

Philippines has no ability to drill for anything and they know it

Find out what you're talking about plse thx cause CCP in the Spratlys are costing a lot of people time and big money, whether its the family fishing business or corporate energy extraction. Here CCP caused Manila to declare a force majeure...

Philippines suspends Reed Bank drilling in S.China Sea - Philex unit
Tuesday, March 03, 2015

MANILA, March 3 (Reuters) - The Philippine government has suspended all exploration work at the Reed Bank in the South China Sea "until further notice", a unit of Philex Petroleum Corp said, as the country pursues international arbitration over territorial disputes.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL4N0W51NL20150303

If you speak with the Americans now with the Def Secretary who according to Comrade P is as hawiskh as int can get....what will he recommend

I'd posting something about this earlier in the thread. So you just go ahead and hide and watch as things develop this week and going forward. Here's the link to the post #10937826

There's more but that's it for now.

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The foreign ministry in China is clear and consistent with its messaging, the trade balance and the open sea lanes is important and critical to China as it is for the global community.

The recent exercises in SCS is an exercise of rights to USA military actions that are clearly not needed or wanted in this region. China is showing to USA they are not afraid of foreign powers and as a superpower them like Russia, USA should thread carefully how they want to balance out the world matters as all 3 are giants in the political and military arena.

The bottomline issue here is trade and I would assure you the Philippines incoming president is not a thug but a very pragmatic man. If China gives him what he wants, the islands and ruling is inconsequential.

Philippines has no ability to drill for anything and they know it. They do understand with the President council that it is smarter to get royalties for it and this is what they are holding out for in advance of Brunei & Malaysia. Vietnam is the only strategic partner with Russia that has the ability to counter that but it will be interesting how they will do it as they got in a little too late.

Cash is what is needed by the Philippines. The Chinese government will let him do his publicity stunt of jet skiing there and planting a flag as the opening ceremony....ASEAN remains in many ways Chinese dominated and the most richest man in each one of these countries comes from a Chinese heritage...speak with CP in Thailand in Teochew and see if he can converse,...at the end of the day the business environment will prevail and it will not make the small people happy as it seems unfair but the world is rarely fair.

Americans as I have posted earlier has a heart of gold...it just been played and unfortunately wont and has not much strategy beyond military hardware display which is why they are often weak in responses when asked for a long term deal.

If you speak with the Americans now with the Def Secretary who according to Comrade P is as hawiskh as int can get....what will he recommend ? Ramming civilian boats, open fire on what ? and if they do exchange fire what's next ...he probably has no clue

As Chinese former foreign minster quoted today in CNA...the Asians have patience in negotiations and this will prevail in the end....all they really have to do is to wait till Nov when Trump or Clinton wins and becomes the next POTUS...the world is in for a wild ride for the next 4 years as both has the ability to embarrass USA at the world stage. I predict Trump will meet Kim just for the media attention and fall in love with a north korea courtesan and have a half asian baby....that would be news !

It is stupid to think or believe the US does not have a long term plan for the CCP Dictators in Beijing or that it has no plan for the SCS. The PCA case by the Philippines was filed in early 2012 so even though CCP was caught completely by surprise, US and Asean were not surprised by it and have been preparing for the ruling and its immediate fallout for a long time.

It is the CCP Klutzes in Beijing who'd never in the past 20 years considered for a moment their aggressions could or would be brought to an international court of international law.

Dr. Kurt Campbell was AsstSecState who with the then-SecState Hillary Clinton developed the US rebalance to the Pacific-Asia region in economic focus, diplomacy, military security. Putin in Ukraine and in Syria has hampered it, as have Daesh and continuing fighting in Afghanistan. Brexit hasn't helped either.

However, the 'pivot' by the US to the Indian Ocean-Pacific-East Asian geostrategic area goes forward.

Dr. Campbell is a principal foreign policy advisor the the HR Clinton for president campaign, so his comments and analysis are of a significant importance. This is what he said yesterday in respect of the PCA ruling that will be announced Tuesday...

The outrage and unhappiness in China will not be staged and its likely there will be some deployments and active steps taken, he said. There is no question there will be a substantial reaction from Beijing.

Dr Campbell believes Beijing could respond by launching naval patrols around, or building military facilities in, areas such as the Scarborough Shoals, which have been traditionally controlled by The Philippines.

If they did this, it could plunge Asia into crisis, he said. It would be a further escalation and would create questions about whether China remained committed to a challenging but fruitful relationship with its neighbours.

He said it would be necessary to send a message to China that military measures would have very negative consequences for everyone.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/beijing-tantrum-on-south-china-sea-ruling-looming/news-story/f4f0861050dd805f06bbf90b2557a91b?nk=1d178055ff7a4ffe828cecf7e825e2ab-1468172774

Philippines has no ability to drill for anything and they know it

Find out what you're talking about plse thx cause CCP in the Spratlys are costing a lot of people time and big money, whether its the family fishing business or corporate energy extraction. Here CCP caused Manila to declare a force majeure...

Philippines suspends Reed Bank drilling in S.China Sea - Philex unit

Tuesday, March 03, 2015

MANILA, March 3 (Reuters) - The Philippine government has suspended all exploration work at the Reed Bank in the South China Sea "until further notice", a unit of Philex Petroleum Corp said, as the country pursues international arbitration over territorial disputes.[/size]

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL4N0W51NL20150303[/size]

If you speak with the Americans now with the Def Secretary who according to Comrade P is as hawiskh as int can get....what will he recommend

I'd posting something about this earlier in the thread. So you just go ahead and hide and watch as things develop this week and going forward. Here's the link to the post #10937826

There's more but that's it for now.

Yes ...just like the longterm plan USA had for Middle East and Iraq...clap clap clap.....looks like great progress so far..all bombed out countries and displace people.

This is Asia and because the Asians don't say it often enough ...it does not mean we don't mean it...Western people and academics will never get an Asian mind.

You have to be Asian ....Asia will be dictated by Asian leaders who understand first an Asian mind and following that their own individual country cultures. Western "experts" who are humble and open will eventually get most of the nuances if they are determined to learn as they spend more time but unfortunately they wont be Asian. You can call this racist but if western countries were all that open, you should not need black livesmatter campaigns, a diversity campaign etc in showcasing these issues were never resolved.

We are an international well traveled family and I cannot get my son to ever like mac&cheese or burgers...but give him rice and his face lights up...he does like cheese though but we credit the NZ genes for that. He can master chopsticks at 5 but his fork and knife skills are decidedly second in comfort level for him.

I am sure Comrade P will now type a whole paragraph on why the Chinese are racist without ever understanding what I wrote....these are times why Asians rarely share our thoughts at times....if we don't say anything we are "oppressed" and cannot express our views...when we do .... we are racist and a 5000 year blah blahblahh ...

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Naive thoughts.....ASEAN cannot break up for the face value...which part of Thailand do you live in ? Do yo not see all the posters they printed all over about AEC ? Even though there is nothing in AEC, everyone likes to pretend it is still there and all 10 countries are extreme buddies....

this is why you will never understand an Asian mind. They will never lose face and break it up for Philippines concerns ...in Singapore Malaysia & Indonesia minds ...these is a poor country and deserve it....China will swing Thailand on its side as Thailand likes playing big brother to Cambodia and Laos as Thailand looks down on them and think they are poorer.

Myanmar has open its doors to get the foreign investments, they will shut off soon in the next 10 years and after 2 presidents of yours, you will see another swing....but through it all...will they break up ? they will never ..in your dreams they will...you don't understand Asian minds and how leaders here are not TV idiots like your potential POTUS Trump...leaders cannot be mocked on TV...private conversations yes...but in public the public rarely say anything...

Why does the USA not tackle Hun Sen brutality or family business ? Myanmar's crackdown on Muslims....is that because they have not ratify the UN laws on that and just like to instead publish a report on human trafficking instead for its moral duties ? It wont say anything about Myanmar because Obama hugged Aung and because for now they support democracy ?

ASEAN survived Brunei crazy laws, IMDB in Malaysia, brutal murders in Myanmar of the Muslims , almost daily bombings in the south by muslim groups but you can see in ASEAN...keeping mum about your neighbours affairs has been an Asian habit...it does not involve you...just keep your mouth shut :-)

This is a trait that go against the culture and vibe in America. We understand...now you can place your tirade for the day about the end of the world because of China.

Edited by LawrenceChee
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China in its own rights is exercising what any developed superpower will do in the constant deployment of foreign military hardware in its own backyard.

China irregardless of what some posters may think, is a recognised superpower and has its own doctrines and while need to partner with the world on some issues as a perm UN member also means that it has the right to dictate its foreign policy and how it views assets / resources. It has a big population to take care of in its communist ideology and trade is what will get you those resources.

As I have explained in my earlier posts, no superpowers head into a negotiation on equal standing. Over the years of passage and trade in ASEAN, from the early Brits, Dutch, USA, every foreign power came into this region for its rich resources and negotiated from a position of power to the smaller countries and forced them to sign unfair treaties. In today's media world, this is not possible and china knows this and hence like their ancient Chinese heritage tells them to do, they negotiate separately. Head to a clan house in China today and you will see these hushed conversations over tea, a handshake and a nod on the head, deals have done this way in Asia for thousands of years and Linkedin or Facebook wont change that,.

I have just recently completed a deal with partner that will deliver million of $$ of products in the business and no contract is signed. His grandfather knew my grand uncle and that was good enough for us to trust on the words exchanged sealed over a cup of Puer in the clan house.

The Chinese are not weak, their military have no recent experience largely due to its foreign policy of non-interference and focus on trade.

Hence while some may may have opinions this makes them untested, many would also argue you don't need to test a large force to see how good they are. The Chinese military is not a pushover and in the last straw, has communist partners here where the ties run very deep that will deploy to its advantage.

When you have Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and even Vietnam and from a trade point Singapore & Malaysia & Brunei, China has entrenched interests in this area and they will be foolish not to pursue long term interests.

Philippines issue in Hague will pass, the judgement will be against China, China will not recognise it ...this is foregone conclusion and I predict in the end the deal that will make this work is a train deal in provinces and an expanded trade deal / royalties of at least 50 billion or more. Philippines will not say no to that as partnering USA gets them their bases back in operations, some small trade but no real money.

Philippines is not unlike many ASEAN countries. They recognise where the power play is and have been working them in rounds from Japanese, China, Russia and India to get free aid. USA while always reliable to crank up any military display has no $$$ and the ASEAN partners knows this. Any aid promised is rarely paid on time and pledges of good money is for the news network largely. The private donors from USA in my personal experience do more than the USA government in donations and work.

I don't have a bone here with USA, but I do believe their constant military tactics is annoying and unproductive when they have real issues at home to solve and wont resolve with the same kind of tenacity they seem to enjoy deploying weapons globally

China and Russian are big partners in world affairs and making military tension between all 3 giants is foolish and short term thinking of the USA. It has to recognise it has to share the world stage...the Chinese will allow them to talk all they like as long as they stay respectful. USA is not the sole decider in things these days much less in Asian arena.

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CCP Dictators in Beijing are not bellyaching about respecting the Asian way or the Chinese traditional way of life or of anything specific to this region of the world in terms that are social, cultural, traditional, family based or predicated on drinking tea as a way of discussion, negotiation, affirmation, confidence building or anything else.

CCP is instead making a raw power play to dominate an international waterway established as such by the UNCLOS and to destroy or castrate Asean as a presence in the region because Asean as a whole is alarmed at the CCP due to its aggressive conduct and belligerent and bellicose behaviors. The view of Asean is shared by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand to also include India.

So this is what is occurring and this is where we are at the present moment.....

Pentagon says Hague ruling to determine Asia-Pacific's future

The upcoming ruling of a United Nations (UN) arbitral tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands will determine the future of the Asia-Pacific region, a United States Department of Defense (DoD) official said.

US Deputy Secretary of Defense for East Asia Abraham Denmark said that the forthcoming decision of the international arbitral tribunal will mark an important crossroads for the region.

"It will present an opportunity for those in the region to determine whether the Asia-Pacific’s future will be defined by adherence to international laws and norms that have enabled it to prosper or that the region’s future will be determined by raw calculations of power," Denmark said at a joint hearing of two subcommittees at the US Department of Defense last week.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/07/11/1601743/pentagon-says-hague-ruling-determine-asia-pacifics-future

The G-7 will issue a statement after the PCA in The Hague announces its ruling tomorrow. The Europe-Asia Meeting later this month will issue a statement on the PCA ruling as will Asean foreign ministers at their annual meeting in Laos July 21st which will also be attended by CCP and USA. CCP opposes any of these and other organisations making any statement in the matter. No reason either to wonder why.

No one btw is discussing the merits of a cheeseburger in comparison or in contrast to rice. The issues are not personal nor are they cultural or social. This is a political power play by a CCP that had always falsely presented itself as a peaceful rising power. CCP is neither. Its state owned command economy is failing and its relations with its neighbors of the region are terrible, as CCP Dictators line up other dictators in other parts of the world to support CCP against the entire neighborhood.

It merits restating that we do not know the number of CCP Donald Trump equivalents running around in Beijing as members of CCP in the command structure of the Party that owns the state, the government, the military. What we do know is that, despite the fact the CCP Donald Trumps are and always remain anonymous, all indications from Beijing are that there are too many Trumps on the loose for there to be any rational or reasonable basis to appeal to the CCP. CCP just charges head first irrespective of fact or reality and on the basis of its own headstrong will and bluster no matter what.

Hence the statement today from the Pentagon. In the event anyone in the CCP has missed the color of the line the Pentagon drew today, kindly be advised it is red. In case anyone also missed the nature of the statement, while it does not come directly from the SecDef or the US National Security Advisor, it is nonetheless significant.

One thing President Obama can be certain of is that he has the full and unqualified support of his party's presumptive nominee in the matter. Trump himself is not going to support CCP over Potus. Congress regardless of which political party is in control always opposes CCP and Beijing...always.

Edited by Publicus
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