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Posted

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

The UK is doing fine god help us, we must be reading different newspapers. I hate to be around when you think we are doing badly.

Posted

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

I have never said or implied that.
Posted

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

I have never said or implied that.

Well, then, who was it who wrote this? . The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening. And if it was you, what else could it mean?

Posted (edited)

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

I have never said or implied that.

Well, then, who was it who wrote this? . The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening. And if it was you, what else could it mean?

That was me.

Weak economy because of weak pound, as you claim I said, is different from what I said: weak pound because of weak economy.

Edited by stevenl
Posted

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

I have never said or implied that.

Well, then, who was it who wrote this? . The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening. And if it was you, what else could it mean?

That was me.

Weak economy because of weak pound, as you claim I said, is different from what I said: weak pound because of weak economy.

So you're saying that the British economy has been weakening for 70 years? That the average standard of living in the UK is lower than it was 70 years ago? Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof? You got any?

Posted

Let's see if Theresa May gets the nod as Tory leader. As a 'remainer' she could then justifiably state she feels the public must have a new say via a fresh election, along with perhaps an attached 'updated' referendum question:

'Do you wish the new Govt to enact article 50 and leave the EU?' YES/NO

Then look for a resounding NO (in the wake of sober reflection) and the pound to rocket up alongside investor confidence, as well as jobs thus tax/budgets revenue outlook, etc, etc. Or, continue haplessly down the blind Brexiter slope and much worse fallout will follow.

It's possible, and I sincerely hope that happens. The only racing certainty, however, is that Ms May will get in.

It's worrying how many British politicians and commentators are saying the vote is the vote and that's it, when it's quite clear that the vote wasn't the vote because now a good proportion of the Leave voters regret it and would vote Remain now if given the chance.

Posted

"a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction"

What you haven't done is explain why if a weak currency help exports why when Germany was using the DM it became an industrial powerhouse in Europe and a weakening British Pound saw the UK go in the opposite direction. Germany's manufacturing sector is now twice the size of the UK's which is why Germany were able to recover much more quickly from the last recession. "collapse of the manufacturing export based German economy". I see we are still dealing in myths or is that wishful thinking. I think the former boss of ICI Harvey Jones summed it up very well, "Harvey-Jones believed that the combination of Thatcher's free market zealotry and Fortress Britain mentality were killing the country's industrial core. In his 1986 Dimbleby lecture, he remarked: "If we imagine the UK can get by with a bunch of people in smocks showing tourists around medieval castles, we are quite frankly out of our tiny minds." Sounds remarkably like present day thinking.

No, the weakening pound was the result of the UK going in the opposite direction, not the cause. The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening.

Are you honestly saying that the UK economy is smaller than it was 70 years ago? That's complete nonsense. Just because one pound purchases less than it used to, means nothing by itself. It's the total number of pounds you have that counts. In what position would you rather be; having 100 old pounds that could purchase, say, 5 times as much as current pounds or 1000 current pounds? If you evaluate the UK economy in total number of pounds and multiply them by their individual reduced purchasing power, I guarantee you that the UK is still a lot richer than it was back when.

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

This is as plain as day the weakening pound doesn't cause the economy to weaken but a weakening economy results in a weakening pound. I made that point at the very beginning if a weak pound was a good thing for the economy then Germany should be in the doldrums and the UK should be a powerhouse. Germany became the powerhouse of Europe not because its DM strengthened or even despite it but because of its strong economy. The strength of the DM was one result of that strong economy..

Posted (edited)

Are you claiming saying that our economy is on the up? Maybe I am mistaken but we appear to have devalued our currency so many times that I have now lost count. Probably because we have such a strong vibrant economy.

Do you mean he didn't mean to say that the British economy has been on the decline for 70 years because the pound has been declining in value for 70 years.? I can't construe any other meaning for his statement.

And if you rank nations with a population of 10,000,000 or more by nominal GDP per capita, the UK is in 3rd place after the USA and Canada. If you rank it by GDP adjusted for purchasing power, it's in 7th place.

Don't you get it? The nominal value of the pound is completely irrelevant. What counts is how many pounds of value there is in the British economy and the purchasing power of those pounds. By those measures the UK is doing fine. And the standard of living for the average UK resident is far higher than it was 70 years ago.

I have never said or implied that.

Well, then, who was it who wrote this? . The pound has been weakening for 70 years now because the UK economy has been weakening. And if it was you, what else could it mean?

That was me.

Weak economy because of weak pound, as you claim I said, is different from what I said: weak pound because of weak economy.

So you're saying that the British economy has been weakening for 70 years? That the average standard of living in the UK is lower than it was 70 years ago? Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof? You got any?

No, that's not what I said or think. As posted by somebody else earlier, it is relative. The pound is valued relative to other currencies based on the (perceived) strength of the economies.

If you gain 5 baht while somebody else gains 20, and expectations are that that will stay the same, you're doing worse than the other guy. So his perceived value, or currency, will be gaining and yours will be losing

Edited by stevenl
Posted (edited)

It's worrying how many British politicians and commentators are saying the vote is the vote and that's it, when it's quite clear that the vote wasn't the vote because now a good proportion of the Leave voters regret it and would vote Remain now if given the chance.

People like you keep claiming this, but nobody who voted out has come forward with regrets.

Part of the lefty media lies, another vote would likely be 60% or more for out.

If you even bothered to watch the last episode of Panorama, instead of repeating lies, you would know.

I would vote out even if it guaranteed the GBP falling to $0.50

Edited by MissAndry
Posted

It's worrying how many British politicians and commentators are saying the vote is the vote and that's it, when it's quite clear that the vote wasn't the vote because now a good proportion of the Leave voters regret it and would vote Remain now if given the chance.

People like you keep claiming this, but nobody who voted out has come forward with regrets.

Part of the lefty media lies, another vote would likely be 60% or more for out.

If you even bothered to watch the last episode of Panorama, instead of repeating lies, you would know.

I would vote out even if it guaranteed the GBP falling to $0.50

But you said you don't vote.

Posted

It's worrying how many British politicians and commentators are saying the vote is the vote and that's it, when it's quite clear that the vote wasn't the vote because now a good proportion of the Leave voters regret it and would vote Remain now if given the chance.

People like you keep claiming this, but nobody who voted out has come forward with regrets.

Part of the lefty media lies, another vote would likely be 60% or more for out.

If you even bothered to watch the last episode of Panorama, instead of repeating lies, you would know.

I would vote out even if it guaranteed the GBP falling to $0.50

But you said you don't vote.

If there's a next time I will.

Posted

Let's see if Theresa May gets the nod as Tory leader. As a 'remainer' she could then justifiably state she feels the public must have a new say via a fresh election, along with perhaps an attached 'updated' referendum question:

'Do you wish the new Govt to enact article 50 and leave the EU?' YES/NO

Then look for a resounding NO (in the wake of sober reflection) and the pound to rocket up alongside investor confidence, as well as jobs thus tax/budgets revenue outlook, etc, etc. Or, continue haplessly down the blind Brexiter slope and much worse fallout will follow.

It's possible, and I sincerely hope that happens. The only racing certainty, however, is that Ms May will get in.

It's worrying how many British politicians and commentators are saying the vote is the vote and that's it, when it's quite clear that the vote wasn't the vote because now a good proportion of the Leave voters regret it and would vote Remain now if given the chance.

Says who. The good ole BBC 5555

There will be no second vote, just accept it an deal with it.

Posted (edited)

Let's see if Theresa May gets the nod as Tory leader. As a 'remainer' she could then justifiably state she feels the public must have a new say via a fresh election, along with perhaps an attached 'updated' referendum question:

'Do you wish the new Govt to enact article 50 and leave the EU?' YES/NO

Then look for a resounding NO (in the wake of sober reflection) and the pound to rocket up alongside investor confidence, as well as jobs thus tax/budgets revenue outlook, etc, etc. Or, continue haplessly down the blind Brexiter slope and much worse fallout will follow.

It's possible, and I sincerely hope that happens. The only racing certainty, however, is that Ms May will get in.

It's worrying how many British politicians and commentators are saying the vote is the vote and that's it, when it's quite clear that the vote wasn't the vote because now a good proportion of the Leave voters regret it and would vote Remain now if given the chance.

Says who. The good ole BBC 5555

There will be no second vote, just accept it an deal with it.

ahhh Brexiter bliss... 'just deal with it'.... however....

As soon as (or rather 'IF') the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Article 50 is enacted, dominoes for all is a distinct possibility, starting with Deutsche Bank being dangerously over-levereged, with a 40:1 ratio of assets to shareholders equity (Lehman Bros had 31:1 when it went under).

Deutsche Bank: World's most dangerous bank?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36723034

Then it's all downhill with Spain, Portugal, Italy et al.

Brexiters may be gleeful and shout: 'All the more reason to leave/run!'. However, there would be no running away as the fallout would hurt the UK just as much as Europe and could even morph to another global recession with no further tools left for central bank action (amen).

Ie: 'Why should you be concerned about a German bank and how it will affect you? The IMF adds: "In particular, Germany, France, the U.K. and the U.S. have the highest degree of outward spillovers as measured by the average percentage of capital loss of other banking systems due to banking sector shock in the source country," reports Bloomberg'

http://www.wsj.com/articles/deutsche-bank-shares-tumbled-to-a-30-year-low-after-fed-imf-rebuke-1467278856

Also, to keep on topic:

'With sterling falling to fresh lows, you can sense the fear over a possible rate cut this summer and investors are shying away from banks.'

And:

Pound Plunge Is Just Getting Started

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/goldman-deutsche-bank-say-pound-plunge-is-just-getting-started

Thus, AGAIN, let's see if Theresa May gets the nod as Tory leader. As a 'remainer' she could then justifiably state she feels the public must have a new say via a fresh election, along with perhaps an attached 'updated' referendum question:

'Do you wish the new Govt to enact article 50 to leave the EU?' YES/NO

Then look for a resounding NO (in the wake of sober reflection) and the pound to rocket up alongside investor confidence, as well as jobs thus tax/budgets revenue outlook, etc, etc. Also, renegotiate to get a points system or other immigration control mechanism which satisfies Brexiters and Brussels (not likely?). If not, continue haplessly down the blind Brexiter slope to M.A.D....

Edited by sujoop
Posted

In truth sujoop, all you do is illustrate just what a mad world phoney economics is. And I cease to give a toss.

If Deutsche Bank is in trouble it is because of reasons other than a Brexit vote. I believe it was because of reckless financial dealings in the New York markets, and failure to deal with the aftermath.

Posted

In truth sujoop, all you do is illustrate just what a mad world phoney economics is. And I cease to give a toss.

If Deutsche Bank is in trouble it is because of reasons other than a Brexit vote. I believe it was because of reckless financial dealings in the New York markets, and failure to deal with the aftermath.

Ah! The toss! Some give one and some don't. Re the financial world one can argue that Brexit may not be a cause of individual institutional issues, but at the same time one can certainly assert that Brexit has accentuated problems and it is fallout contagion which is addressing the attentions of the central banks and governments notwithstanding original cause.

Posted (edited)

In truth sujoop, all you do is illustrate just what a mad world phoney economics is. And I cease to give a toss.

If Deutsche Bank is in trouble it is because of reasons other than a Brexit vote. I believe it was because of reckless financial dealings in the New York markets, and failure to deal with the aftermath.

Ah! The toss! Some give one and some don't. Re the financial world one can argue that Brexit may not be a cause of individual institutional issues, but at the same time one can certainly assert that Brexit has accentuated problems and it is fallout contagion which is addressing the attentions of the central banks and governments notwithstanding original cause.

The original cause is the problem, and solving it is the solution.

And yes I don't really give a toss.

Edited by mommysboy
Posted (edited)

In truth sujoop, all you do is illustrate just what a mad world phoney economics is. And I cease to give a toss.

If Deutsche Bank is in trouble it is because of reasons other than a Brexit vote. I believe it was because of reckless financial dealings in the New York markets, and failure to deal with the aftermath.

Wholeheartedly agree with the frustrted sentiment expressed regarding 'phoney economics'. However cannot agree with 'I cease to give a toss' as this is not an acceptable or responsible position. Alarmingly, this appears the main 'strategy' for many Brexiteers (with Boris and Farage taking shirking responsibility to an even lower level by effectively doing a runner).

The Deutsche Bank issue was not caused by Brexit but is being greatly exacerbated by Brexit as they were 'dealing with it' but now they are having difficulty in either selling debt, raising funds or raising interest rates in the current Brexit climate.

Thus as much as it would be nice to just lay back and state: 'We won, just deal with it'... like a previous poster, or 'I cease to give a toss' these are not acceptable strategies and will not help to escape or mitigate the fallout which absolutely will worsen if article 50 is enacted and maybe will now anyways as a catalyst result of Brexiters 'no-plan - don't give a toss - just deal with it - win'.

Again, hopefully Theresa May may yet offer a saner path forward for ALL our sakes.

Edited by sujoop
Posted (edited)

In truth sujoop, all you do is illustrate just what a mad world phoney economics is. And I cease to give a toss.

If Deutsche Bank is in trouble it is because of reasons other than a Brexit vote. I believe it was because of reckless financial dealings in the New York markets, and failure to deal with the aftermath.

Wholeheartedly agree with the frustrted sentiment expressed regarding 'phoney economics'. However cannot agree with 'I cease to give a toss' as this is not an acceptable or responsible position. Alarmingly, this appears the main 'strategy' for many Brexiteers (with Boris and Farage taking shirking responsibility to an even lower level by effectively doing a runner).

The Deutsche Bank issue was not caused by Brexit but is being greatly exacerbated by Brexit as they were 'dealing with it' but now they are having difficulty in either selling debt, raising funds or raising interest rates in the current Brexit climate.

Thus as much as it would be nice to just lay back and state: 'We won, just deal with it'... like a previous poster, or 'I cease to give a toss' these are not acceptable strategies and will not help to escape or mitigate the fallout which absolutely will worsen if article 50 is enacted and maybe will now anyways as a catalyst result of Brexiters 'no-plan - don't give a toss - just deal with it - win'.

Again, hopefully Theresa May may yet offer a saner path forward for ALL our sakes.

You are grabbing at straws. The Brexit is now effectively under way as an event. No deal needs to be requested, nor none given.

The financial world did not take the medicine after the big crash. Now we have to face it unfortunately. This is not about the Brexit. There is something more fundamental at play here.

Life goes on. It will be very hard for English people, but a chance to develop some much needed mettle.

Edited by mommysboy
Posted

Get ready for a Thailand Brexit

That has already been going on for the last 3-4 years. I know at leadt 8 Brits who had to return because of the exchange rate

Sent from my S4 LTE

Posted

Get ready for a Thailand Brexit

That has already been going on for the last 3-4 years. I know at leadt 8 Brits who had to return because of the exchange rate

Sent from my S4 LTE

Yes or they lost their jobs due to bad Thai economy. I would say 6 out of 10 already gone.

Posted

the entire world has to repeat the decade of the 1980's.

YES PLEASE CAN WE DO IT SOON,, BRING BACK BELL-BOTTOMS YEAH

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

British pound was going to get weaker no matter what (so true)

now many world currencies will follow, take time to look at

YouTube videos on the subject, you will be surprised.

Posted

In truth sujoop, all you do is illustrate just what a mad world phoney economics is. And I cease to give a toss.

If Deutsche Bank is in trouble it is because of reasons other than a Brexit vote. I believe it was because of reckless financial dealings in the New York markets, and failure to deal with the aftermath.

Ah! The toss! Some give one and some don't. Re the financial world one can argue that Brexit may not be a cause of individual institutional issues, but at the same time one can certainly assert that Brexit has accentuated problems and it is fallout contagion which is addressing the attentions of the central banks and governments notwithstanding original cause.

The whole central bank house of cards was the cause and lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis....vis....interest rates stayed to low(2% if i remember) for way too long which resulted in all the commercial banks of the world (yes deutsche inc) borrowing 'cheap money' and then participating in reckless,predatory lending-resulting in an unsustainable housing market boom.......THEY got greedy!!!

Now the commercial banks are recipients of QE.....so with no good customers to lend to anymore they have a splash on the overvalued stock market. The central banks caused the problems and are exacerbating the situation by keeping alive the zombie banks....All the central banks of the world are bankrupt.....and so are most commercial banks....

So why worry about the contagion when the central banks need to fail so we can wipe all this burdening debt and start again....

Posted

There's an article here

http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-pound-to-fall-by-the-end-of-2016-2016-7

about how low the pound will have to go to make the UK competitive. The point of the article is that to make the UK competitive, its value will have to fall enough to make buying stuff from or in the UK a bargain. Right now the value of the pound is still roughly at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). PPP is sometimes called the Big Mac Index. i.e. how much a Big Mac costs in the UK vs. any other country. And before the literal-minded chime in, it's not just Big Macs but just about everything that can be purchased in the marketplace.

So for the UK to successfully compete in the marketplace, the value of the pound would have to fall enough so as to make it a bargain. Much in the same way that the Thai baht is still a bargain for expats. So for the pound to be a bargain and encourage exports, it would have to fall to a value of about 1 pound/1.15 dollars. But for the property market to be competitive and to encourage investment in the UK one pound would have to be worth less than 1 dollar. That's quite a fall.

Posted

There's an article here

http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-pound-to-fall-by-the-end-of-2016-2016-7

about how low the pound will have to go to make the UK competitive. The point of the article is that to make the UK competitive, its value will have to fall enough to make buying stuff from or in the UK a bargain. Right now the value of the pound is still roughly at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). PPP is sometimes called the Big Mac Index. i.e. how much a Big Mac costs in the UK vs. any other country. And before the literal-minded chime in, it's not just Big Macs but just about everything that can be purchased in the marketplace.

So for the UK to successfully compete in the marketplace, the value of the pound would have to fall enough so as to make it a bargain. Much in the same way that the Thai baht is still a bargain for expats. So for the pound to be a bargain and encourage exports, it would have to fall to a value of about 1 pound/1.15 dollars. But for the property market to be competitive and to encourage investment in the UK one pound would have to be worth less than 1 dollar. That's quite a fall.

let's not worry about the property market being competitive!.....The UK property m'kt and world m'kts have been too competitive which is the root cause of the 'no growth ..high debt' stagnation we find ourselves in.....If housing prices fall that will benefit the ist time home buyers.They can't even get into the 'game' at current price levels.......Of course if this price fall was to happen,it would not be in the interests of central and commercial banks.....boo hoo!

The FED have mortgage backed securities on their books remember.....a fall in prices means the toxic assets they purchased off the banks become a terrible reality....CB's went on this purchasing program in the hope world economies would stabalize and grow again....this hasn't happened!!

here's a short video explaining what a MBS(mortgage backed security) is.....

Posted

There's an article here

http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-pound-to-fall-by-the-end-of-2016-2016-7

about how low the pound will have to go to make the UK competitive. The point of the article is that to make the UK competitive, its value will have to fall enough to make buying stuff from or in the UK a bargain. Right now the value of the pound is still roughly at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). PPP is sometimes called the Big Mac Index. i.e. how much a Big Mac costs in the UK vs. any other country. And before the literal-minded chime in, it's not just Big Macs but just about everything that can be purchased in the marketplace.

So for the UK to successfully compete in the marketplace, the value of the pound would have to fall enough so as to make it a bargain. Much in the same way that the Thai baht is still a bargain for expats. So for the pound to be a bargain and encourage exports, it would have to fall to a value of about 1 pound/1.15 dollars. But for the property market to be competitive and to encourage investment in the UK one pound would have to be worth less than 1 dollar. That's quite a fall.

let's not worry about the property market being competitive!.....The UK property m'kt and world m'kts have been too competitive which is the root cause of the

'no growth ..high debt' stagnation we find ourselves in.....If housing prices fall that will benefit the ist time home buyers.They can't even get into the 'game'

at current price levels.......Of course if this price fall was to happen,it would not be in the interests of central and commercial banks.....boo hoo!

The FED have mortgage backed securities on their books remember.....a fall in prices means the toxic assets they purchased off the banks become

a terrible reality....CB's went on this purchasing program in the hope world economies would stabalize and grow again....this hasn't happened!!

here's a short video explaining what a MBS(mortgage backed security) is.....

And what about the people who purchased those homes? It isn't just the banks that suffer when home values plummet. Of course, much of the blame for this run-up in house prices goes to the conservatives, who made it easier for first time home buyers to purchase their homes. But, somehow, I suspect, Brexit supporters will find a way to blame the EU for this, too.

Posted

There's an article here

http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-pound-to-fall-by-the-end-of-2016-2016-7

about how low the pound will have to go to make the UK competitive. The point of the article is that to make the UK competitive, its value will have to fall enough to make buying stuff from or in the UK a bargain. Right now the value of the pound is still roughly at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). PPP is sometimes called the Big Mac Index. i.e. how much a Big Mac costs in the UK vs. any other country. And before the literal-minded chime in, it's not just Big Macs but just about everything that can be purchased in the marketplace.

So for the UK to successfully compete in the marketplace, the value of the pound would have to fall enough so as to make it a bargain. Much in the same way that the Thai baht is still a bargain for expats. So for the pound to be a bargain and encourage exports, it would have to fall to a value of about 1 pound/1.15 dollars. But for the property market to be competitive and to encourage investment in the UK one pound would have to be worth less than 1 dollar. That's quite a fall.

Might we see 30 Baht to the Quid?

Posted

The point of the article is that to make the UK competitive, its value will have to fall enough to make buying stuff from or in the UK a bargain. Right now the value of the pound is still roughly at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). PPP is sometimes called the Big Mac Index. i.e. how much a Big Mac costs in the UK vs. any other country. And before the literal-minded chime in, it's not just Big Macs but just about everything that can be purchased in the marketplace.

But pointless as the UK doesn't actually make anything any more.

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